Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor continues to dominate on voting intention, though few seem impressed by its stance on Adani.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, up from 53-47 last time. Primary vote numbers will be with us later. Also featured are Essential’s monthly (I think) leadership ratings, and they find Malcolm Turnbull little changed at 41% approval (up two) and 41% disapproval (on one), but Bill Shorten improving to 37% approval (up four) and 44% disapproval (down two). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-26, compared with 42-25 last time.

Other questions relate to Adani, on which 30% favour the Greens’ position, 26% favour the Coalition’s and 19% favour Labor’s, though it would be important to see the question wording on that one. Other findings related by The Guardian are that 42% support and 39% oppose company tax cuts; that regulating energy prices had 83% support, an “Accord-style partnership” 66% support and boosting Newstart 52% support; and that same-sex marriage is supported by 65% and opposed by 26%. Essential Research’s full report should be with us later in the day.

UPDATE: Full report here. Primary vote gains for the major parties at the expense of other/independent, with the Coalition up one to 36% and Labor up three to 38%, with the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,546 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Lizzie

    Not so sure about a cushy job for Quaedvlieg.

    Certainly not at $600k

    His whole career is in law enforcement and I am not sure it would be a good look for a corporation hiring a man sacked for dishonesty at the highest level.

    One of the accusations related to lying about his circumstances in connection with a security clearance. That is serious stuff.

    Maybe some third world dictatorship might turn a blind eye to that.

  2. It will be fascinating to see if/how it reflects in the polling.

    I’m usually wrong on predicting this sort of stuff exactly because I predict it might actually cause a change.

    If Barnaby couldn’t move the needle then it would be pretty surprising to think this will.

    I’ll back the concrete just continuing to harden in the 53-54 range.

  3. BiGD…yes, Labor give the impression of being focused on governing, on the budget, on fairness and system integrity…very far cry from the charades of the LNP

  4. rossmcg

    Maybe some third world dictatorship might turn a blind eye to that.

    Give Dutton,Turnbull and Morrison a few years and it will be sorted.

  5. I am a bit late with all this tax refunds on Superannuation earnings. The way I see it is that after Howard and Costello extended the Tax imputation to give refunds to those that don’t pay tax. The income from Superannuation from being taxed to tax free. This would mean that the refund to those that don’t pay any tax at all, are actually double dipping, because of the benefits (trap) by the Howard Government, in making something that was taxable to something that was non taxable. If Howard had of left it alone, then the Tax Imputation would have worked and the SMSF and Superannuation recipients would instead of paying tax to paying no tax, due to imputation and not get a refund.
    If the SMS where fair dinkum this would be explained properly. Even though there are most economists and Treasury agree with this policy.

  6. Financial Review‏Verified account @FinancialReview · 16m16 minutes ago

    Low-income retirees caught by Labor’s plan to scrap cash refunds could be compensated by other policies, like a lower deeming rate, @PhillipCoorey reports. http://www.afr.com/x/h0xhgt #auspol

  7. Briefly I think that is an excellent point. This strategy of releasing tough but smart policy has paid dividends in the past. It just makes them look like the more credible choice for government. Didn’t their foray into negative gearing policy in 2016 meet with a similarly harsh but wonkish debate in the press? And unless I’m mistaken that coincided with what transpired to be the peak in Turmbull’s polling “downwards J curve”?

  8. This has turned into the theme for the day. Question: is Dutton stepping up his media profile because the 30 Newspolls are near? His “this is a sensitive time” for Quad was breathtaking.

    Ben Eltham‏Verified account @beneltham

    Peter Dutton suddenly caring about South African farmers. Perhaps now everyone can finally acknowledge that “stopping the boats” was always really “stopping brown people”

  9. Well we are into the bullshit tonight. USA could have won the war only if…………… A sure indication you didn’t live in the period or your memory in fading.

    https://thevietnamwar.info/how-much-vietnam-war-cost/

    The fourth largest expenditure and for what; a tiny little strip of land in Asia. They spent enough to bomb it back to the stone age twice and strip it of pretty much every tree; and still they lost. A lesson that pretty much lasted a generation.

    As for dividend imputation it was designed to stop company profits being taxed twice; not to stop company profits being taxed. Clearly if you are not paying tax then the company profits are not being tax twice are they. The superannuation scheme was never supposed to be for the maintaining of a capital base for the next generation. Your supposed to draw it down in your old age.

    The level of self interest bunkum is a sight to behold.

  10. shiftaling….voters are interested in policy substance that affects them. Labor will have to show how the losses of the few will be offset by gains for the many. This is the message they will have to propound.

  11. I’ve seen this a couple of times. I assume it depends how closely Dutton’s finances are linked to his wife’s.

    Mark Dickenson The PM signed off on it!‏ @bugwannostra · 11h11 hours ago

    Dutton is in breach of s44 (v) His wife’s Childcare Centres receive Commonwealth subsidies. If the media did their jobs nobody would be suffering at his hand.
    I doubt the government could win a by-election in his seat. #auspol

  12. Briefly yes I hesitated to even call it strategy – it’s what good government is about and the contrast with the current mob couldn’t be clearer

  13. The thing about this policy is that the vast majority of Australians do not own shares directly and have no idea what an imputation credit is. Of those who do own shares directly, most are taxable income earners at 32.5% and above marginal rates who will be unaffected by this policy as they can continue to use franking credits to offset dividend earnings.

    The other thing is that many of those people who own a handful of shares and can get the benefit of this rebate are older Australians who took advantage of government privatisation under Hawke, Keating and Howard. A few, Telstra, Qantas and/or CBA shares are all they own. Apart from Medibank Private, which was fully priced, there has been nothing of this kind for almost 15 years.

    That means that away from us (mostly) old farts here and on other commentary boards, and the handful of people whipped out by the media to present exceptions as representative, the vast bulk of Australians don’t understand and are not affected.

    Now, vested interests could do what they have done in the past with the resource rent tax and other proposals, which is to run massive advertising campaigns to convince ordinary Australians that this terrible and unfair and, most importantly, will result in ordinary Australians losing thousands of dollars and their jobs. But apart from the chartered accountants who set up SMSFs and a few retail super funds, there are not many interests with enough to lose to run an expensive ad campaign. And certainly not against an OPPOSITION policy this far out from an election.

    This may well have been a smart move by the Labor brains trust (although I’m yet to see the benefit of releasing it a few days out from the Batman by-election, unless it was to screw with ScoMo’s budget planning). As others have pointed out, there is a long way further for the caravan to travel while the dogs are sitting in the one barking away about this issue.


  14. briefly says:
    Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 6:38 pm

    shiftaling….voters are interested in policy substance that affects them. Labor will have to show how the losses of the few will be offset by gains for the many. This is the message they will have to propound.

    We need a tax system; all people should be paying tax on their income. The company profit should be taxed at least once.

  15. BigD,

    It’s not even about perceptions. Coalition Governments exist for one primary reason and one secondary reason.

    The Primary Reason – to keep Labor out of power.
    The Secondary Reason – to shovel as much cash to the rich as you can

    That’s it. They have no purpose beyond this.

    And on those KPIs Trumble isn’t shooting the lights out and there will be a fair bit of concern about the primary objective going forward, but he’s still delivering for the big end of town so he’s not a complete failure.

  16. frednk @ #1372 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 6:46 pm


    briefly says:
    Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 6:38 pm

    shiftaling….voters are interested in policy substance that affects them. Labor will have to show how the losses of the few will be offset by gains for the many. This is the message they will have to propound.

    We need a tax system; all people should be paying tax on their income. The company profit should be taxed at least once.

    No, tax is bad apparently and Lib-Lab will cut those nasty income taxes.

  17. ratsak @ #2286 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 2:49 pm

    BigD,

    It’s not even about perceptions. Coalition Governments exist for one primary reason and one secondary reason.

    The Primary Reason – to keep Labor out of power.
    The Secondary Reason – to shovel as much cash to the rich as you can

    That’s it. They have no purpose beyond this.

    And on those KPIs Trumble isn’t shooting the lights out and there will be a fair bit of concern about the primary objective going forward, but he’s still delivering for the big end of town so he’s not a complete failure.

    But that’s where perception is so important, without maintaining a perception of competence they can not keep Labor out of power!! 🙂

  18. I’ll give you a tip

    I did some work last financial year, just for 1 month with a Group Certificate for $8,800- plus Superannuation paid to an Industry Superannuation Fund

    The PAYG tax was fully refunded including because of the Seniors Work Offset and the Low Income Offset calculated by the ATO

    Further, I received a low income Superannuation remittance

    I withdrew the Superannuation as a lump sum as I qualified to do same

    All ATO advices refer to me as a Low Income earner

    BUT

    I have $1.4 Million in Superannuation paying a tax free Allocated Pension of $70,000- PA at the minimum draw rate for my age

    My wife has $1.2 Million in Superannuation paying a tax free Allocated Pension of $48,000- PA at the minimum draw rate for her age

    We have $250,000- on Term Deposit in joint accounts, the interest rates with a 2 in front of them

    Yet we are defined as Low Income earners

    So beware of what is being trotted out by the media referring to the taxable incomes of the beneficiaries of this Howard rort on the back of tax being paid twice, when it is not being paid twice because the Shareholder pays no tax in the first instance

  19. Ahhhhhh……Rex…..!!!!!…..on tax Labor absolutely does not equal Lib. This is going to be promoted by the Libs themselves. I look forward to them campaigning for Labor from now until the next election.

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