Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor continues to dominate on voting intention, though few seem impressed by its stance on Adani.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, up from 53-47 last time. Primary vote numbers will be with us later. Also featured are Essential’s monthly (I think) leadership ratings, and they find Malcolm Turnbull little changed at 41% approval (up two) and 41% disapproval (on one), but Bill Shorten improving to 37% approval (up four) and 44% disapproval (down two). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-26, compared with 42-25 last time.

Other questions relate to Adani, on which 30% favour the Greens’ position, 26% favour the Coalition’s and 19% favour Labor’s, though it would be important to see the question wording on that one. Other findings related by The Guardian are that 42% support and 39% oppose company tax cuts; that regulating energy prices had 83% support, an “Accord-style partnership” 66% support and boosting Newstart 52% support; and that same-sex marriage is supported by 65% and opposed by 26%. Essential Research’s full report should be with us later in the day.

UPDATE: Full report here. Primary vote gains for the major parties at the expense of other/independent, with the Coalition up one to 36% and Labor up three to 38%, with the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,546 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. bemused @ #2184 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 5:07 pm

    Boerwar @ #2172 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 4:53 pm

    Yabba88

    Of course the US could have subjugated Vietnam. It just did not want to pay the cost. Twenty years before Vietnam the US had 8 million soldiers, tens of thousands of war planes, thousands of warships hundreds of thousands of artillery pieces and related items, and tens of thousands of tanks.

    The US simply did not want to pay the full price of subjugating Vietnam, fought a half-arsed war and lost. Australia was the same. We had at one stage 400,000 men in uniform during WW2. We only ever sent a fraction of that number to Vietnam.

    This issue is important. Australians have been conditioned to think that all wars are limited and symbolic. So we enthusiastically send job lots over to various wars to pretend that make a difference and that the wars we fight are real wars.

    The reason this conditioning is very dangerous is that we have lost touch with the notion of total war with an enemy that will fight a total war on something like even terms.

    Really?
    The US dropped more bombs in Vietnam than it dropped in all theatres of WWII.
    It had total domination of air and sea.
    It had the advantage of highly mobile, helicopter borne forces backed by its air power and artillery.
    It had armour.
    It descended into barbarism of which My Lai was just the tip of the iceberg.
    Had it chosen to turn the whole country into smoking rubble I suppose it could have won some sort of pyrrhic victory. And been despised by the rest of the world.

    The problem with the way that the USA became and remained involved in the war in Indo-China, and the same with George W Bush in Iraq is that the people who made decisions allowed themselves to be talked into believing it would be a cakewalk and the objectives could be achieved at very little cost. The people who did the talking had their own agendas, either ideological or mercenary or both, which led them to basically tell a pack of plausible lies. By the time Johnson, and later Bush, realised what they got themselves into they were so afraid of losing face that they were even more eager to believe the bullshit and doubled down and doubled down again on the forces and commitment needed all with the idea that victory was one additional military commitment away.

    In short, it was the failure to do due diligence – to believe what they wanted, rather than have their hopes and beliefs tested by some hard thinking and investigation – that led to such loss of life with such negative outcomes for them. The USA could well have achieved its objectives in Vietnam, but not by laying even more waste to the country, but by starting its involvement in a different way with a much greater understanding of who it was opposing and who it was supporting.

  2. Ch 10 5pm news is full on about nasty Labor and the 600,000 poor pensioners. Presumably tabloid TV news at 5pm is aimed mostly at the 60+ demographic. You can tell from the adverts for funeral insurance and the like.

    One anomaly is the televised Sydney traffic report from a helicopter. I’ve never worked out how someone driving home after work is supposed to watch TV to find out about traffic hold ups.

  3. Boerwar

    And I think the fact that the Government had to sack him means his behaviour must be indefensible.

    Probably goes a bit further than legalese descriptions about looking after the girlfriend and lying to his Minister about his personal cicumstances.

    Joyce did pretty much the same and he still has a job, albeit at much lower salary. And some people still think that was his private business.

  4. …With every incremental turn of the screw, the government baits opposition parties in order to wring out the last drop of political advantage by casting them as weak on national security. With the Greens and occasional trusty crossbenchers resisting this stepwise slide, it is often left to the Labor party to swing in the breeze, hiding behind committee processes to extract some kind of meagre concession before caving in to form the smallest possible political target…

    Ludlam hits the mark.

  5. daretotread. says:
    Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 4:58 pm

    The imbecilic actions of the UK risk nuclear war.

    Bollocks. The UK has expelled some spies. This is not an act of war.

    Did you note Putin’s speech. Did you hear what he said. Attack Russia or her allies and no hold barred.

    Oh and we have some new super duper weapons.

    Even if he is exaggerating on the weapons. there is enough substance there for existing militaries to be scared .

    Putin has created an opportunity to grandstand to his own community….to drum up the illusion of legitimacy and authority. Putin is attempting to create political cover for Russian territorial aggression.

  6. TPOF

    ‘The USA could well have achieved its objectives in Vietnam, but not by laying even more waste to the country, but by starting its involvement in a different way with a much greater understanding of who it was opposing and who it was supporting.’

    Quite true.

    On top of that, it could have deployed twenty times as many soldiers as it did and held all ground won instead of endlessly sending troops in to retake well constructed defences, sending patrols in to get ambushed at the same places or to walk into IEDs, etc, etc, etc. It was a clown’s picnic.

    The US could have deployed ten times as many tanks as it did.

    The US could have deployed tens times as much artillery as it did.

    And most of all it could have decided that the Vietnam War just had to include North Vietnam.

    The United States did none of those things. The US and its pennyhaporth allies played at war. The result was a million dead for no good reason at all except to save embarrassment for POTUSes who should have known better.

  7. Q
    When the head honcho breaks the rules he really does have to go. I am about 99% certain that someone in Q’s position and with Q’s history would know about lots of bodies…

    It looks as if they were unable to persuade him to take the fall.

    There will be some good people who will be wondering just when and how he pays them back.

  8. Old Spoke’s post crystallizes some other posters thoughts and is also a very strong argument in favour of Labor’s policy.

    The Corporate Person is a legal construct that creates numerous benefits for shareholders. One of the biggest of course being the separation of liability. As Old Spoke notes it’s a bit rich to want those benefits but then expect the profits of the company to be treated as your personal income when it comes to tax.

    If an investor wants to have their business investment profits treated as personal income they have a very simple option – invest in a business as a partner. Then of course if your total income comes in under the tax free threshold you will pay not a cent on your share of the business profit. But of course you are then equally liable with all your other partners for any liabilities.

    So Old Spoke’s argument to investors is simple and quite compelling.

    Choose.

    You can have the advantages of incorporation and accept the cost of paying company tax, or you can accept the disadvantages of partnerships and have your business profit treated as personal income. You can’t have both.

  9. Boerwar @ #2206 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 5:41 pm

    TPOF

    ‘The USA could well have achieved its objectives in Vietnam, but not by laying even more waste to the country, but by starting its involvement in a different way with a much greater understanding of who it was opposing and who it was supporting.’

    Quite true.

    On top of that, it could have deployed twenty times as many soldiers as it did and held all ground won instead of endlessly sending troops in to retake well constructed defences, sending patrols in to get ambushed at the same places or to walk into IEDs, etc, etc, etc. It was a clown’s picnic.

    The US could have deployed ten times as many tanks as it did.

    The US could have deployed tens times as much artillery as it did.

    And most of all it could have decided that the Vietnam War just had to include North Vietnam.

    The United States did none of those things. The US and its pennyhaporth allies played at war. The result was a million dead for no good reason at all except to save embarrassment for POTUSes who should have known better.

    I agree. But if they knew that was what they had to do they would not have done it. They only went in because they thought they could win with minimal involvement. Like many interventions before and since they dramatically underestimated the extent to which the corruption of their allies on the ground was so venal that these allies were bigger traitors to their own country than the forces they were fighting against.

  10. Diogenes @ #2103 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 12:21 pm

    The best thing for England as a country would be to ban their football team from the World Cup so they don’t have their inevitable quadrennial national self-flagellation orgy over not making it through the group stages.

    Actually England nearly always make it through the group stages. In fact they’ve not qualified at all for the tournament just as many times as they’ve been knocked out in the group stage (3 times didn’t qualify, 3 times knocked out in the group stage out of a total of 18 tournaments).

    Which means they went beyond the group stage 12 times out of 18. Not a great record, but not bad.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_at_the_FIFA_World_Cup#Records

  11. Jackol
    Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 5:02 pm

    No it doesn’t. The company tax on the franked dividend is refunded as a credit, and the income is reassessed as the recipient’s personal income, and personal income tax levied appropriately on that. That is true for all franked divided recipients in all cases at the moment; the ALP proposal retains this system except for those who have little or no other income tax liability.

    I agree Jackol. As it stands the policy is regressive.

  12. The US has never been in a position to become an occupier in perpetuity of the territories where it has been militarily committed. It can only ever be, at best, a transient conqueror. In the absence of a near complete genocide, it cannot hope to subjugate the populations of the lands it invades.

    Eventually it will learn this very obvious truth.

  13. Dutton’s words on the S/African “refugees” are getting a beating around the ears in the Drum, but Adam Creighton “can’t see the problem”.

  14. Schloss Lulzville Schadenfreude‏ @GeorgeBludger · 2h2 hours ago

    It is quite something watching journalist after journalist line up to play the violin In the Royal Dividend Imputation Rules Philharmonic. What an ensemble!

  15. I’m convinced that most CPG journalists are as much a blight on our society as LNP politicians and rapacious corporations.

    And that includes Saint Tingle!

  16. I repeat. Why did it take so long?

    The statement said Quaedvlieg had engaged in “acts and made omissions” which materially advantaged the candidate, which was inconsistent with an oath he took to hold the role.

    It said he failed to disclose a “significant change in his personal life” and made a “wilfully or recklessly false statement” about his relationship status to the immigration minister. Quaedvlieg also failed to disclose that he had an interest in the candidate securing the position.

    The statement described the sacking as “extremely unfortunate” given his “long and conspicuous public service”.

    “However, the relevant conduct went beyond an isolated error of judgment and ultimately undermined his capacity to continue in the office of ABF commissioner.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/15/roman-quaedvlieg-sacked-as-head-of-border-force?CMP=share_btn_tw

  17. TPOF says:
    Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 5:46 pm

    The United States did none of those things. The US and its pennyhaporth allies played at war. The result was a million dead for no good reason at all except to save embarrassment for POTUSes who should have known better.

    I agree. But if they knew that was what they had to do they would not have done it. They only went in because they thought they could win with minimal involvement. Like many interventions before and since they dramatically underestimated the extent to which the corruption of their allies on the ground was so venal that these allies were bigger traitors to their own country than the forces they were fighting against.

    This argument says the way to win a war against a determined opponent is to obliterate them, which is to say the object of war must be death and only death. This contradicts Clausewitz, for whom war was the continuation of policy by other means. Wars of oblivion become exercises in nihilism.

  18. briefly @ #2225 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 6:00 pm

    TPOF says:
    Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 5:46 pm

    The United States did none of those things. The US and its pennyhaporth allies played at war. The result was a million dead for no good reason at all except to save embarrassment for POTUSes who should have known better.

    I agree. But if they knew that was what they had to do they would not have done it. They only went in because they thought they could win with minimal involvement. Like many interventions before and since they dramatically underestimated the extent to which the corruption of their allies on the ground was so venal that these allies were bigger traitors to their own country than the forces they were fighting against.

    This argument says the way to win a war against a determined opponent is to obliterate them, which is to say the object of war must be death and only death. This contradicts Clausewitz, for whom war was the continuation of policy by other means. Wars of oblivion become exercises in nihilism.

    As I said, if they knew what they had to do they would not have done it. The only nation/leader in the last century to launch total war was Nazi Germany under Hitler. It is a rare thing to choose to do that, thank heavens.

  19. How long until Ubergroupen-tuber announces the replace Quadbike as his good friend from Police Academy 4 – Roman Quaedvlieg

  20. daretotread

    You’ll be ‘pleased’ to know Betty Windsor is prepared and has a WWIII speech ready to go.
    .
    Queen Elizabeth’s WWIII speech revealed
    THE SPEECH:
    “When I spoke to you less than three months ago we were all enjoying the warmth and fellowship of a family Christmas. Our thoughts were concentrated on the strong links that bind each generation to the ones that came before and those that will follow. The horrors of war could not have seemed more remote as my family and I shared our Christmas joy with the growing family of the Commonwealth.

    Now this madness of war is once more spreading through the world and our brave country must again prepare itself to survive against great odds…………………………………………….My message to you therefore is simple. Help those who cannot help themselves, give comfort to the lonely and the homeless and let your family become the focus of hope and life to those who need it.

    As we strive together to fight off the new evil, let us pray for our country and men of goodwill wherever they may be.

    God bless you all.”

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12013610

  21. TPOF @ #2211 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 4:46 pm

    They only went in because they thought they could win with minimal involvement.

    I think you underestimate the importance of appeasing justifying the military-industrial complex and its role in basically all of these decisions. You can’t maintain the most expensive army in the world and just sit there peacefully not using it.

    The politics of the U.S. demand constant warfare. Or at least, constant playing at warfare.

  22. THREAD:

    Michaelia Cash could face cross-examination in court over her office's involvement in tipping-off the media about police raids on union offices. https://t.co/aXMoaYeCnK— Alice Workman (@workmanalice) March 15, 2018

    The Australian Workers Union's legal representatives have informed the Federal Court that the union will seek to subpoena Cash, as well as her former media adviser David de Garis and former Fair Work Ombudsman official Mark Lee.— Alice Workman (@workmanalice) March 15, 2018

    The subpoena applications will be formally made in the next day and if successful, all three will be required to appear in court at the end of the month to give evidence and face cross-examination about their knowledge of the leaks and subsequent raids.— Alice Workman (@workmanalice) March 15, 2018

    “We believe the raid and the investigation itself to be unlawful," AWU national secretary @DanWaltonAWU told BuzzFeed News. "That is why the AWU has gone to the Federal Court.— Alice Workman (@workmanalice) March 15, 2018

    “We think the testimony of [Cash, de Garis and Lee] is important to understanding exactly what happened.” – @DanWaltonAWU— Alice Workman (@workmanalice) March 15, 2018

    For anyone interested the AWU v ROC case Cash could appear at is set to be heard 26-28 March in Federal Court in Melbourne. https://t.co/QsG5MEzrsc— Alice Workman (@workmanalice) March 15, 2018

  23. Shellbell

    Make sense for Quaedvlieg to talk tough. I daresay the government would not want senior officials, much less ministers, in the witness box talking about why it took nine months to sort this out.

    Whatever happens I doubt he would get his job back but he could get some compensation to settle. And given his reported marital difficulties every dollar counts.

  24. TOPF

    Yes…Hitler and the SS believed in death as an end in itself.

    This contradicts the whole concept of “war aims”. In my opinion, it is precisely because the use of nuclear weapons is self-defeating – will prevent the attainment of “war aims” – that they have not been used since 1945.

    If the result of war is obliteration – another term for “losing” – there is no point in fighting.

    I think this is the main lesson of the 20th century’s wars.

  25. Rossmcg

    Why in the name of all that’s holy does he need even MORE compensation? There’s probably a nice cushy job already lined up for him, too.

  26. poroti @ #2234 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 6:08 pm

    daretotread

    You’ll be ‘pleased’ to know Betty Windsor is prepared and has a WWIII speech ready to go.
    .
    Queen Elizabeth’s WWIII speech revealed
    THE SPEECH:
    “When I spoke to you less than three months ago we were all enjoying the warmth and fellowship of a family Christmas. Our thoughts were concentrated on the strong links that bind each generation to the ones that came before and those that will follow. The horrors of war could not have seemed more remote as my family and I shared our Christmas joy with the growing family of the Commonwealth.

    Now this madness of war is once more spreading through the world and our brave country must again prepare itself to survive against great odds…………………………………………….My message to you therefore is simple. Help those who cannot help themselves, give comfort to the lonely and the homeless and let your family become the focus of hope and life to those who need it.

    As we strive together to fight off the new evil, let us pray for our country and men of goodwill wherever they may be.

    God bless you all.”

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12013610

    Maybe we should start writing and singing those War ballads that arise with every conflagration. now. I don’t think we’ll have much time to sing them if WW3 actually broke out!

  27. lizzie @ #2224 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 5:58 pm

    I repeat. Why did it take so long?

    The statement said Quaedvlieg had engaged in “acts and made omissions” which materially advantaged the candidate, which was inconsistent with an oath he took to hold the role.

    It said he failed to disclose a “significant change in his personal life” and made a “wilfully or recklessly false statement” about his relationship status to the immigration minister. Quaedvlieg also failed to disclose that he had an interest in the candidate securing the position.

    The statement described the sacking as “extremely unfortunate” given his “long and conspicuous public service”.

    “However, the relevant conduct went beyond an isolated error of judgment and ultimately undermined his capacity to continue in the office of ABF commissioner.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/15/roman-quaedvlieg-sacked-as-head-of-border-force?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Bet you that the same finding isn’t made against one Barnaby Joyce…

    Tom.

  28. So why doesn’t @workmanalice tell us all who else the AWU should subpoena to find out who from Keenan’s office was also tipping off the media?

  29. Josh Butler
    Josh Butler
    @JoshButler
    ·
    1h
    48 hours in Dutton/Home Affairs news:
    * try to quietly deport a Tamil family despite ongoing court case
    * cosying up to gun lobby
    * fast tracking South African refugees
    * Roman finally fired after months on paid holiday

    really smashing the KPIs this week

  30. One thing that can be said of Labor’s tax release is it has put the focus on policy.

    This in itself is a good thing. It will be fascinating to see if/how it reflects in the polling.

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