Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Nearly two-thirds of respondents want Barnaby Joyce out as Nationals leader, as the Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull lose their gains from the year’s first poll a fortnight ago.

Newspoll has Labor’s lead back at 53-47, after its first new poll for the year a fortnight ago had it down to 52-48. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 36%, with Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10%, and One Nation bouncing back three points after a recent slump to 8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 45-31 to 40-33. All we have in terms of leadership approval at this stage are that Malcolm Turnbull’s net rating has weakened from minus 13% to minus 18%. Also featured is a finding that 65% of respondents believe Barnaby Joyce should resign as leader of the Nationals, which breaks down into a lot of detail I’m finding hard to parse from Simon Benson’s report in The Australian. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1632.

UPDATE: Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval 54%; Bill Shorten is steady on 34% approval and up two on disapproval to 54%. Only 23% agreed that Barnaby Joyce should remain Nationals leader, with 29% favouring him resigning from the front bench, 15% bowing out at the next election, and 21% quitting parliament immediately. The poll also finds 64% support for a ban on sexual relations between politicians and their employees, with 25% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Matt @ #583 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 2:55 pm

    Boerwar
    Typical anti greens again??
    Maybe just maybe the population issue might be a global issue rather than a local one? Maybe the Greens immigration policy might just be based on decency and humanity, concepts you obviously don’t care about one iota!

    Lib-Lab and Boerwars preferred trickle down neolib economic system simply can’t sustain a high immigration program.

  2. Matt

    Yes that is the sad truth.

    Once we had a media that knew the difference between news and opinion. They kept the two seperate and you knew which was which and what their agenda was.

  5. Edward-Isaac DovereVerified account@IsaacDovere
    10m10 minutes ago
    As Rubio says tonight Parkland made him consider changing mind on magazine size restrictions &age limits, worth remembering that he rationalized getting back in the 2016 Senate race because the Pulse shooting “impacted” him… and did nothing on guns since

  6. BK:

    The NRA lady got stuck into media reporting a couple of times, so I reckon if Trump was going to anger tweet about CNN it’d be along those lines.

  7. Wow!

    That town hall is really something.

    Maybe there is hope for the USA.

    These kids just might make it to congress one day.

    Hope so.

    B;loody best thing in public action since 1972.

  8. There will be candidates in upcoming elections in the U.S that run on an anti-gun platform. It’s up to the people to vote for them.

  9. Boerwar @ #2136 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 2:46 pm

    It is an unfortunate truth that the immigration policy debate has been undermined by both the looney racist right and the nong far lefties in the Greens.

    The Greens have yet to explain how if we can’t be every remotely sustainable with our current population we will become MORE sustainable with millions more immigrants/asylum seekers.

    As for the raving right, simple racism is the answer to every question.

    Both extremes are demeaning themselves by playing their immigrant political wedge cards.

    I agree with this. And yet it is a debate we really have to have! How do we do it?

  10. BK
    “Will Trump tweet disparagingly about the Fake News CNN Town Hall event?”

    If he does, he’ll piss off a lot of Florida voters. And if he can’t win Florida, he can kiss a second term goodbye.

  12. DTT

    Glad to agree with you 100% about the US youth survivors of mass shootings standing up.

    It renews my belief in the decency of most human beings.

  13. Rex:

    I reckon not only will there be such candidates, but those elected on a gun reform platform will be held to greater account for their actions in office.

  15. While immigrants in their 20s and 30s today will be in their 40s and 50s in 20 years time, a large proportion of them will have children in their 20s and 30s. That will increase the number of 20-40 year olds for every over 60.

  16. Good to see the Florida kids speaking out but I’m not expecting much to change too quickly, if at all. Cultural change doesn’t normally happen overnight.

    We will see tokenism though. The NRA will concede the banning of bump stocks with great fanfare and Trump and other pollies will claim they are making changes. Call me cynical but behind the scenes the NRA still work to allow full auto modifications which would get rid of any need for the bump stocks.

  17. workmanalice: With the addition of @KKeneally, federal Labor now has 46.8% women across both houses. If @gedkearney wins the #Batman by-election, Labor will hit 48% women in parliament, just short of its 50% by 2025 target.
    workmanalice: The @ParlLibrary’s latest stats on number of politicians by party and
    gender in federal parliament is out. parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/downl…

    ALP – 50 men to 44 women
    Liberals – 65 men to 19 women
    Nationals – 19 men to 2 women
    Greens – 6 men to 4 women pic.twitter.com/2PlUI1hQSd

  18. The ABC knows the difference between fact and opinion, and the distinction between analysis and opinion is a distinction without a difference.

    All they care about, be it ‘fact’, opinion, analysis or whatever, is that it doesn’t offend the government.

  19. REX
    “There will be candidates in upcoming elections in the U.S that run on an anti-gun platform. It’s up to the people to vote for them.”
    Hope so, having said that I heard that this next election of the sitting members up for election something like 33 are Democrats and only 8 Republicans? I am sure someone here will know the exact numbers. so not much real chance for significant change along party lines?

  20. Ante Meridian @ #2138 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 11:47 am

    I’m getting the vibe that the irony inherent in my last post might have been missed by some people, so here’s a quick summary.

    The problem is that 20 years from now we will not have enough people under the age of 40 (supposedly).

    If we import people who are in their 20s and 30s today, 20 years from now they will all be 20 years older, which means… Oh, never mind.

    The part you’re forgetting is that people in their 20’s and 30’s will have children. Those children will be the workers.

  21. According to the DT today, the Sydney light rail construction project has become a disaster from many angles. However, it’s apparently all the fault of the foreign contractors and no fault of the Berejiklian government. (Bear in mind that the DT is a great booster of any Berejiklian infrastructure project, regardless of its worth to the community.)

  23. Liberals – 65 men to 19 women
    Nationals – 19 men to 2 women

    The coalition isn’t called the party of Old White Men for nothing.

  24. Bump stock were invented to help people with disabilities use guns. Gun enthusiasts don’t use them, something about making the gun inaccurate. Almost no-one uses them and no-one sells them anymore. Banning them is just a sop.

    “there is somehow an inference that this child is somehow less worthy than other children, and it’s almost spoken about in the third person.”
    WTF!! Should we be referring to the baby as you, in the second person, or I , in the first person? Or does he want us to use the plural?

  25. citizen @ #2168 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 2:11 pm

    According to the DT today, the Sydney light rail construction project has become a disaster from many angles. However, it’s apparently all the fault of the foreign contractors and no fault of the Berejiklian government. (Bear in mind that the DT is a great booster of any Berejiklian infrastructure project, regardless of its worth to the community.)

    Citizen

    I think if it were a simple party line thing gun control would have got up log ago.

    It is not a simple case of democrats versus republicans. (mind you over the last 10years it has strted to look more like that)

  27. Wall to wall pro business tax cuts propaganda on the ABC today I note (aided and abetted by all the ‘journos’ I’ve heard so far……

  28. Tom, and Grimace

    That will only be true if the immigrants have more children than locally-born Australians do. If they have families of about the same size there is no gain, and if they have smaller families we end up going backwards.

    Maybe they will have larger families, but there’s no guarantee of that. The only foolproof way to reduce a shortage of young people is to import young people when there is a shortage, not 20 years before. That’s if we ever actually have a shortage, which I’m sceptical about.

    (I don’t know how to edit fonts in this blog, so please imagine the words “when there is a shortage” are in italics.)

  30. “there is somehow an inference that this child is somehow less worthy than other children, and it’s almost spoken about in the third person.”
    WTF!! Should we be referring to the baby as you, in the second person, or I , in the first person? Or does he want us to use the plural?

    I think he means, ‘it’, Dio.

    Not that I have seen or heard one person doing that.

  31. poroti

    =IF(D14=””,””,INDEX(DATAMATCH!$B$2:$B$1208,MATCH(1,(Current_Week_Production!D14=DATAMATCH!$D$2:$D$1208)*(Current_Week_Production!E14=DATAMATCH!$E$2:$E$1208)*(Current_Week_Production!F14=DATAMATCH!$F$2:$F$1208),0)))

    Not exactly intuitive unless you’re doing it every day.

    And even then …

  33. dtt

    I think if it were a simple party line thing gun control would have got up log ago.

    It is not a simple case of democrats versus republicans.

    Yes, voters need to comprehend this and look to independents/others.

  37. ‘fess

    Just back from watching my friend carry the baton 200m.

    You’ll have missed my advice on where to stand then, which was –

    Stand back a little in case she tries to ‘gong’ you with it and turn you into ‘Dame Confessions of Albany’!

  39. Is it possible that tax cuts to small businesses will actually reduce investment by those small companies? A large motivation by these companies to invest in say new cars, computers etc, is the tax deductions they attract. They don’t appear to cost that much to the business owner.

    If the deduction isn’t there, there may be a tendency for the tradie to hang onto the old ute a little longer.

  42. CTar:

    Rest assured that no way in hell were general public allowed within cooee of the baton bearers while they carried the baton – loads and loads of police surrounded her on all sides as she ran down the street.

  44. CTar1

    That was just to retrieve a code number as long as the entry matched 3 criteria. Pretty simple but after a while all the formulate over multiple pages and books blurred into one 🙂

  47. Adrian – I think you haven’t heard that because ALP has vowed to stay out of the personal aspect and concentrate solely on the possibility of corrupt behaviour in regards to jobs etc.

  49. I’d like to see more of a debate about health privatisation and user pays. I reckon a lot of poor people would welcome the opportunity to see a nurse at a discounted rate as opposed to a doctor. The later could charge higher fees from more well off folk.

    It’s a win win solution.

  50. How demeaning for Emma Alberichi, forced by the ABC to rewrite her earlier article after Turnbull and others applied pressure. How gutless of the ABC for not standing up to the bad guys.

    There’s more to jobs and growth than a corporate tax cut
    By chief economics correspondent Emma Alberici
    Posted about 2 hours ago

    Editor’s note: This analysis has been revised and updated by our chief economics correspondent. Passages that could be interpreted as opinion have been removed. Our editorial processes have also been reviewed. Emma Alberici is the ABC’s chief economics correspondent and is a respected and senior Australian journalist.

    (then the revised article follows)

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-22/more-to-jobs-and-growth-than-a-corporate-tax-cut/9471856

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