BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

ReachTEL polls New England, as the headline numbers from BludgerTrack poll aggregate record little change.

Essential Research was the only national poll of federal voting intention this week, and it’s made all but zero difference to the headline numbers on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland has made a very substantial difference, reversing the 52-48 lead recorded to Labor there and knocking five off their seat projection. Conversely, the shallow pool of data from Western Australia since polling resumed for the year has pushed Labor’s lead there well above what seems plausible, added three to their seat tally with the latest update. I’m sure this will moderate over the coming weeks. The other changes this week are a gain for Labor in Victoria and a loss in South Australia. Exciting developments are looming in the world of BludgerTrack in a week or (more likely) two, so do stay tuned.

In other poll news, today’s Fairfax papers have a ReachTEL poll of New England, which finds 43% of its voters still intending to vote for Barnaby Joyce, compared with 65% at the December 2 by-election. However, Tony Windsor was included as a speculative response option, recording 26.1% support, with Labor on 12.1%. However, opinion is divided as to whether he should remain as Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister, favoured by 45.3%, or resign either from the front bench (26.7%) or from parliament altogether (20.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,554 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  1. Hey, ‘fess, just think how much you will contribute to the Albany economy if you had kids! Plus, you may even help to keep a Public School open! Anyway, they are by turn, adorable, frustrating and exhausting. What better way to fill up the days! 🙂

  2. @davidwh

    I don’t think the idea would be you’d have three separate parties in Qld. But the Qld LNP would organise separately and have a separate party room. It won’t happen, but seeing the Nats knee-capped would be hilarious.

  4. Yep. For various reasons, I think that there won’t be a federal election until next year. I also think we’re going to see something like the death spiral of the last NSW Labor government, with various messiahs taking the leadership in the interim.

    Yeah I can definitely see something like that happening.

    Certainly far more likely than both Joyce and Trumble staying in their current jobs for more than a few months tops. It would be apt seeing as this mob are as useless as the post Iemma Labor Government were. Perhaps not as openly corrupt, but clearly as self interested and incapable of anything even resembling competent governance.

  5. I assume that today Joyce told Turnbull that his judgement was appalling because if Joyce loses the leadership he will go to the cross bench.
    The price for his vote of confidence in the Government will be that the Liberals kick Turnbull out.
    Whereat Turnbull will say to the Liberals, if you kick me out I will resign from Parliament.

    Blackmail Central.

    Se need an election now!

  7. Wondering what the effect of the Turnbull Joyce crap will be on the SA election.
    Would have thought it will help Jay Weatherill.
    Certainly, the lies spread by Turnbull and Frydenberg re energy & the blackouts will have even less cred.

  8. It’s painfully obvious the rural populations are poorly served by the various Tories they elect. Liberals, Nationals and their various hybrids have done a really hopeless job over the years. Maybe the penny will eventually drop for these voters and they will start to elect Labor candidates, but that seems like a distant dream…

  9. CTar:

    Arming teachers simply advances the NRA agenda of more widespread distribution of guns.

    All those congress men and women who accept donations from the NRA should hang their heads in shame, but they never do.

  11. ‘Schools ‘have option to arm teachers’, says US education secretary’

    Saw a response to this from a US teacher on twitter, along the lines of ‘that’d be right. We have to buy our own toner for the photocopier, but they’d be happy to give us free guns.”

  13. I see the Greens in Batman are unleashing the Black Wiggle on the areas which have been hard for the hipsters to penetrate. Good luck!

  15. CTar1

    Schools ‘have option to arm teachers’, says US education secretary

    I am sure that Mrs Johansson, the drama teacher at the Catholic Alabama State College, would be just the person to take on a crazed gunman wielding an AR15 with 5 spare magasines. So, what would be the appropriate weapon?
    A 9mm Glock? Another AR15? Hand grenades?
    An AR15 mag takes 10 rounds, so if the assailant has one mag in place, plus 5 spare, that gives him 60 rounds.
    Mrs Johansson will need a lot of training. Could cut into drama studies.

  16. It’s not that complicated BW. Both Trumble and Joyce have only ever been in it for themselves. They have both had periods where good PR and acting skills have convinced an incredibly high number of wood ducks to fall for the myth that they might actually be able to deliver for real people and indeed actually give a shit.

    The delusion runs deep with both of them. They both managed to get to the point they always aimed for despite (as some editorial said about Joyce) “having careers never troubled by competence”. They’ve never actually been forced to face up to reality. So they both are oblivious to the fact that what is once seen cannot be unseen. And the whole country has seen Joyce for the venal, philandering, self centred piece of shit he is. And the whole country has seen Trumble is Barnaby’s Bitch. A waffling, dissembling bag of wind without balls or spine.

    They are both complete jokes. It can’t be hidden now it’s been shoved in the country’s face.

    But those two morons will be the last to work it out. Stinking carcasses don’t tear themselves down though. It’s a dirty job so it might take a while before the stink gets so strong that it just can’t be put off, but eventually that’s what will happen.

  17. ratsak @ #1467 Saturday, February 17th, 2018 – 4:22 pm

    Shit this smelly doesn’t take weeks to register in the polls. If polling being taken now doesn’t register it then it never will.

    My money’s on a near Utegate hit.

    You can’t come out and basically say your deputy is a dickhead whose thought processes work in that order (usually stopping at the halfway mark) and who really does need to just fuck right off and then leave him in place.

    You can’t have said deputy dickhead come out and say ‘you’re inept, and I know just how fucking weak as piss you are, so go and get fucked’ and then leave him in place.

    You can’t just come out after that and say ‘oh I wasn’t trying to imply your party should sack your stupid arse, I’m really sorry, as you were’ and expect not to be thought a coward and a fool.

    You can’t just pretend none of it happened, have a beer and imagine the public will just go ‘oh well that’s all right then’.

    All of this did happen. All of it was widely reported. And all of it is on top of the entire Joyce disaster that got them here in the first place, Trumble’s manifest weakness for years, and his risible bonkban as ‘strong leadership’.

    Various gallery Galahs are desperately trying to spin a way for Trumble to survive and even thrive from this. That’s just them being the same morons they’ve always been. And Trumble will make sure they do end up looking stupid (yet again) because that’s just Trumble being the same moron he’s always been.

    But this is huge and probably decisive. Abbott even when he faced off against an empty chair didn’t have a week like this. Even his handling of Chopper wasn’t this inept and that finished him off. Chopper was just a bagatelle compared to Joyce. This is about as destructive as Crean going completely off the deep end in a previous government whose leader’s name I shall not utter here. This is career and government ending stuff. They will limp on for a while, but they’re done. It’s just a matter of time until they bleed out.

    Shorten will be hoping they can keep going til August.

    Huzzah and Amen!

  19. Sure arm the teachers, teacher loses the plot and kills a whole classroom in 10,9,8,7………. . Wonderful for the atmosphere. A tteacher instead of looking at a room full of students will need to see a room full of potential targets. Yeee haw.

  20. Trog Sorrenson @ #1564 Saturday, February 17th, 2018 – 6:40 pm

    CTar1

    Schools ‘have option to arm teachers’, says US education secretary

    I am sure that Mrs Johansson, the drama teacher at the Catholic Alabama State College, would be just the person to take on a crazed gunman wielding an AR15 with 5 spare magasines. So, what would be the appropriate weapon?
    A 9mm Glock? Another AR15? Hand grenades?
    An AR15 mag takes 10 rounds, so if the assailant has one mag in place, plus 5 spare, that gives him 60 rounds.
    Mrs Johansson will need a lot of training. Could cut into drama studies.

    No Trog, an AR15 has a 30 round magazine although other capacities may be available.

    There is no conceivable civilian use for such a weapon.

  21. Confessions @ #1492 Saturday, February 17th, 2018 – 5:06 pm

    OH and I have been talking about having kids. We’re not married but I’m getting to the age where that window will close soon and the option of a safe delivery taken off the table, hence the need to have that conversation sooner rather than later.

    I’m reluctant to have children because that world in 30, 40, 50+ years is not a place I’d like to live and I really don’t want to consign offspring to it and the choices s/he will have to make. Also I am of the view that our world is populated enough, and the one thing I personally can do to help restore stasis to the environment is to not procreate, this meaning at least one less person our over-populated planet needs to cope with.

    OH being male is of a different view. Discussions continue….

    This is a tough one. My partner and I didn’t face this dilemma because we had kids before we even knew much about global warming. But I think our decision would have been the same in any case. I think of it this way – it doesn’t really matter whether you have kids or not – in 50 years time the population of the planet will far, far less than it is now – perhaps by many billions. Although we should never stop trying to improve things, there is now very little we can realistically do to prevent this. All we can do is work to ensure that as many children as possible have a chance to survive.

    Every parent in every generation has faced much the same decision, even if they didn’t realize it at the time. Who knew a decade or so prior to WWI or WWII just how many of the children of the time would not survive? If they did, would they have decided not to have them?

  23. Briefly
    I doubt those electorates will ever do themselves a favour and elect an ALP candidate. They think ALP is Unions and workers will get a payrise and we cannot have that can we. And the workers are scared their employer will go broke and they will be out of a job. They think an ALP government is the end of their world. Also they fear change to the status quo.

  25. bemused

    No Trog, an AR15 has a 30 round magazine although other capacities may be available.

    My bad. I was using the maximum legal magasine size in California and a few other states. Mrs Johansson will have to cope with 180 rounds then.
    More training. No time for drama studies at all.

  26. I agree, I think there will be an immediate poll hit.
    Week 1 was the ‘bundle of Joyce’, which got people’s attention,week 2 was the coverup and the bun fight.

    The cricket has finished and the footy hasn’t started yet.

  27. poroti

    It is all about Frau Blücher . The Bludger lounge tends to react in a similar manner to the mention of Rudd or Gillard

    Oh.

  29. zoomster says:
    Saturday, February 17, 2018 at 4:48 pm

    …”I will add, the counter argument here seems to be that it was stupid of the ALP to believe that Rudd would (a) honour his word and (b) behave as each and every one of them had been trained to do”…

    No, the argument (and this should be so patently obvious that I don’t particularly understand why you would require it spelled out for you) is that it was stupid of the ALP to dump Rudd in the first place.

    In reality, Rudd is/was far more capable than anyone in the parliamentary party then or now, as evidenced by his recent statements on various issues.

    That the poor petals couldn’t work with him, in all likelihood, was their own silly fault.

  30. Trog Sorrenson @ #1574 Saturday, February 17th, 2018 – 6:46 pm

    bemused

    No Trog, an AR15 has a 30 round magazine although other capacities may be available.

    My bad. I was using the maximum legal magasine size in California and a few other states. Mrs Johansson will have to cope with 180 rounds then.
    More training. No time for drama studies at all.

    I should also point out that it was a similar weapon, firing the same ammunition, that the cops unleashed in the Lindt Cafe. Not the smartest idea.

  32. Absence of Empathy @ #1578 Saturday, February 17th, 2018 – 6:50 pm

    zoomster says:
    Saturday, February 17, 2018 at 4:48 pm

    …”I will add, the counter argument here seems to be that it was stupid of the ALP to believe that Rudd would (a) honour his word and (b) behave as each and every one of them had been trained to do”…

    No, the argument (and this should be so patently obvious that I don’t particularly understand why you would require it spelled out for you) is that it was stupid of the ALP to dump Rudd in the first place.

    In reality, Rudd is/was far more capable than anyone in the parliamentary party then or now, as evidenced by his recent statements on various issues.

    That the poor petals couldn’t work with him, in all likelihood, was their own silly fault.

    Exactly!
    And an earlier comment criticised him for not sticking to the script drawn up prior to being elected!
    Great idea when something like the GFC comes along.

  33. Jesus freaking christ! I nearly pissed myself laughing! I have just watched the footage of today’s meeting between the Beetrorter and Trumble! It was this:

    😀 😀 😀

  34. Rudd was excellent on the Apology. Was it only popular politics then? Why isn’t he taking more part in the current debate on Closing the Gap? Or did I miss something?

  38. Ratsak, I am one of the posters on here that sees both good and bad in both Rudd and Gillard and I don’t usually get involved in the debates of those with 20/20 hindsight after reading the books of the victor (depending who they think won). I usually just scroll past the RGR wars. But I am getting more than a little sick of your childish and petulant posts of these horses. I enjoy your other posts, so please stop doing your self a disservice.

    Tom.

  39. bemused

    “So Tommy, what would you like for your birthday?”

    “Mom, A Rocket Propelled Grenade launcher attachment for my AR-15 would be really neat!”

  40. It’s interesting to note that, in any discussion around Rudd, it becomes apparent that his supporters are basically in love with him. No one else understands Kevvie like they do. They feel his pain.

    I totally totally understand. I was like that too.

  42. David Marler‏ @Qldaah · 23h23 hours ago

    As everyone familiar with the ABC complaints process knows, it takes around 30 days before the ABC will look at your request. To use your position to expedite this process is an abuse of power. The ABC is not state controlled media. #auspol

  43. I guess on the plus side, Mrs Johansson should have fewer discipline problems in her drama class. With her flack jacket, holstered Glock, belt full of hand grenades and spare mags, commando knife and AR15 leaning against the desk, she will cut an imposing figure.

  44. (McCormack) said Mr Joyce “has been a very good leader” who had delivered for rural and regional Australia, and “if the party feels that needs to continue then that is what will happen”.

    Has Joyce really delivered anything substantial? There’s been a lot of boasting and aggro. And lots of lovely pork to B’s mates.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senior-nationals-openly-canvassing-leadership-challenge-to-barnaby-joyce-as-liberals-call-for-him-to-quit-20180217-p4z0or.html

  45. It’s interesting to note that, in any discussion around Rudd, it becomes apparent that his supporters are basically in love with him.

    No it’s like a cult when it comes to Rudd. His supporters aren’t in love with him they are totally freakin’ obsessed with him to the point they worship the ground he walks on and can’t see any fault with him.

  46. bemused

    No, personal opinion. Although I also was pro Rudd as leader at the time (and right up until February 2013, when he confirmed himself that what I had been dismissing as self interested rumours were actually true).

    In Gillard’s book she says she knew Rudd’s flaws but thought that most of them would be sorted out when he became leader. I think that was the mistake most people made.

  47. fess

    No, it’s love – they can admit flaws, and bad behaviour, but they can find infinite excuses for it. What they can’t do is look at him objectively.

  49. A friend of mine worked with Rudd years ago when he was in Beatie’s (?) government as a project director or some such role. He told me (just after KR became ALP leader and leading up to the 2007 election) that KR was toxic and a micromanager even then, and he said it would not end well.

    2nd hand stuff i know, but other party accounts seem to bear out his impression.

  50. zoomster @ #1589 Saturday, February 17th, 2018 – 7:03 pm

    It’s interesting to note that, in any discussion around Rudd, it becomes apparent that his supporters are basically in love with him. No one else understands Kevvie like they do. They feel his pain.

    I totally totally understand. I was like that too.

    Well don’t try to project your infatuation onto others.

    He was a capable politician with the ability to connect with voters. There have been others like him and there have been others lacking in this essential attribute.

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