BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

ReachTEL polls New England, as the headline numbers from BludgerTrack poll aggregate record little change.

Essential Research was the only national poll of federal voting intention this week, and it’s made all but zero difference to the headline numbers on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland has made a very substantial difference, reversing the 52-48 lead recorded to Labor there and knocking five off their seat projection. Conversely, the shallow pool of data from Western Australia since polling resumed for the year has pushed Labor’s lead there well above what seems plausible, added three to their seat tally with the latest update. I’m sure this will moderate over the coming weeks. The other changes this week are a gain for Labor in Victoria and a loss in South Australia. Exciting developments are looming in the world of BludgerTrack in a week or (more likely) two, so do stay tuned.

In other poll news, today’s Fairfax papers have a ReachTEL poll of New England, which finds 43% of its voters still intending to vote for Barnaby Joyce, compared with 65% at the December 2 by-election. However, Tony Windsor was included as a speculative response option, recording 26.1% support, with Labor on 12.1%. However, opinion is divided as to whether he should remain as Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister, favoured by 45.3%, or resign either from the front bench (26.7%) or from parliament altogether (20.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,554 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  1. The Cathy Wilcox‏ @cathywilcox1 · 20m20 minutes ago

    How about a Bonobo policy, where parliamentarians just shag whoever is standing next to them, to clear the air and promote harmony in the group.
    Then get back to work.

  2. Touchbearer

    I wonder when the penny will drop that the cause of the toxic, middle-aged male entitlement boys club problem in the Coalition is because…they have no diversity in their party room- it is just a group of entitled , wealthy, white middle aged men.

    That is a recipe for dysfunction, poor behaviour and poor performance.

    If they didn’t ‘get it’ when JWH and his govt got flicked they never will. It was too comfortable for them to be complacent and think that the failures of Labor that followed were their doing.

  3. If BJoyce was even a little teeny bit of what everyone who supports him says he is, he should have not gone to a by election at all.

    He Should have taken the opportunity then to resign and find a job in the private sector. This way, he could have got on with his life managing his new circumstances and making it so much better for his former family and his new one.
    But no. He truly believes he is entitled to do what the f@@k he pleases.
    And how entitled must you really feel, to seek and take free accommodation from a benefactor as well. As if the existing circumstances he had created wasn’t bad enough. And he is supposed to be second in charge of this country,

    Yep. We are being punked.

  4. Turnbull still doesn’t get it.

    It’s not about who is screwing who. I’m not interested.

    It’s about the abuse of public office by creating a job in a Minister’s office for Joyce’s squeeze at $190,000 +, then to the Whip’s office, then the porkbarrelling by Maguire in paying for a love shack for Joyce and his pregnant squeeze.

    Up the workers !!!

  5. President Trump on Thursday called the suspect in the mass school shooting in Parkland, Fla., “mentally disturbed” and vowed to help local jurisdictions tackle mental health issues, but he made no mention of stricter gun-control laws.

    No surprises there. The most obvious solution is the one they never embrace. And what possible reason is there for assault weapons to be available to the general public? Nobody ever answers that question.

  6. Got a question. Asked it last night but no response. Has the ACOSS recommendation for an increase in the Newstart allowance been voted on ? and if so, was Labor for it or agin it?
    Asking for a friend.

  7. The accused confesses.

    The 19-year-old accused of gunning down 17 people at his former high school admitted to carrying out the shooting rampage, authorities said in court papers filed Thursday.

    Police wrote that Nikolas Cruz, who has been charged with 17 counts of premeditated murder, told officers that he walked into Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School on Wednesday wielding an AR-15 and began shooting students in the hallways and outside on the school’s grounds.

  8. The Winter Olympic’s are boring as batsh^t for 98% of the time and the commentators are woeful.

    But who ever has been ‘coaching’ our athletes about what to say when the press put a microphone in front of them seems to have done a very good job overall.

  9. Boomy1

    Yesterday The Greens in the Senate moved a motion calling on the Government to increase NewStart.

    It was defeated. Labor and the Coalition voted no.

  10. Fess

    Of course the most obvious thing to do, is not on the list.

    The NRA are a corrupt organisation and the govt aids and abets them.

    Ultimately they are there to promote the sale and distribution of as many guns as possible. Everytime there is a shooting, sales go up. Win win.

    Except for those in the firing line. But as they say, you gotta expect collateral damage.

  11. boomy1,
    I think the answer to your question is, yes, however I do not know why. Maybe it had something to do with the Bill as presented to the Senate. I’ll ask an ALP NSW Senator when I get a chance. 🙂

  12. Fess

    Having the suspect in custody and even getting a motive for his killing spree, is not going to help those who are impacted by the event.
    Justice is never served in circumstances such as this.

    Nothing is going to bring back the dead and the maimed will forever be so.
    For every person affected, hundreds more are indirectly affected.
    Their lives forever changed.

    And this gets replicated on a regular basis. The stories are the same, just the victims names change

  13. So, it looks like it was just another Greens’ stunt. Probably unfunded. But then, they do believe in an unlimited spigot of government money. 🙂

  14. Victoria:

    Even if govts can’t stomach the thought of banning guns they can at least start with banning high powered assault weapons, which are invariably the ones used in these mass shootings.

    There is no reason why these weapons should be available to the general public and banning them would at least be something.

  15. C@t

    I believe that the increase proposed by the Greens was an increase of $4000 per annum for each Newstart recipient. Could well have been unfunded

  16. Fess

    If the business model is to sell as much of your product as possible, do you think they care that some of these assault rifles end up in the hands of disturbed individuals that cause massacres.

    Their view is that the guns don’t kill people. It is the people who are killing people.

  17. I see the appalling Katharine Murphy in the Guardian thinks it is OK now because it was only about sex, and Mal fixed it. She avoids any mention of cover-up from Malcolm down and the corrupt use of public money.

  18. ‘Yesterday The Greens in the Senate moved a motion calling on the Government to increase NewStart.

    It was defeated. Labor and the Coalition voted no.’

    Thanks, that’s what I thought. Labor voter here Ides. Whatever info you have on this please post it. Labor’s got off the bus for the real poor bastards. I know Penny Wong would be a fantastic foreign minister and Bill’s a bit Bolshie but we aint feeling any love.

  19. Snap, Victoria.

    Labor has a basic position that any increase in spending needs to be paid for.

    Of course, working out how to fund something involves a little more pain than just handing out bags of money to people (however deserving). It might actually involve upsetting someone.

    You can understand why the Greens don’t want to go there.

  20. Turnbull has wanted for the whole of his life to make his ‘mark’ on Australian politics.

    I wonder how the title of the ‘Bonk Ban king’ will settle on him later?

  21. Zoomster

    I believe that Newstart is too low. But it needs to be a manageable increase. $4000 increase per annum seems a bit steep. Remembering it is a recurring expense not a one off payment

  22. The QLD and NSW Nationals are a perverse bunch. History informs that when under attack by outside bodies they tend to draw together even tighter.
    I believe you will see this with Them and Beetroot.
    They strongly resent Liberal interference in their Party. They will protect Beetroot fully now.
    The word is there was a huge fall out between Turnbull and Joyce and that Barnaby is deeply wounded by Turnbull’s choice of words at yesterday evenings announcement.
    Barnaby IMHO will not quit, he will now actively assist the plotters to knife Turnbull.
    In defeat malice, in victory revenge.

  23. CTar:

    I love the Hartcher article in BK’s round up. I wonder how that description is sitting with Mr Selfie Leather Jacket!

  24. BK:
    [Maybe ministerial concubines could be provided.]

    Absolutely not, we are not Japan.

    OTOH the push to contract out Ministerial staff with an emphasis on providing contracts to the more sexually attractive staff would be more in keeping with our economic/cultural philosophy. And such contracts would of course be commercially-in-confidence. I don’t know why Campion wasn’t offered such a contract herself in all her transfers.

  25. Boomy1

    As it was a motion and not a bill, even if it passed it wouldnt have meant much. Govt would be under no obligation to follow through. I wager even if Lab had said yes the other CrossBenchers would still have said no.

  26. boomy1 @ #71 Friday, February 16th, 2018 – 8:50 am

    ‘Yesterday The Greens in the Senate moved a motion calling on the Government to increase NewStart.

    It was defeated. Labor and the Coalition voted no.’

    Thanks, that’s what I thought. Labor voter here Ides. Whatever info you have on this please post it. Labor’s got off the bus for the real poor bastards. I know Penny Wong would be a fantastic foreign minister and Bill’s a bit Bolshie but we aint feeling any love.

    Never forget who funded the first increase in the Pension for decades! Fully funded!

    You can ‘not feel the love’ from the ALP re Newstart, or think they have ‘gotten off the bus’, but you are forgetting that they are not a feelgood party like The Greens, who have an ‘all care and no responsibility’ attitude to what are genuine problems.

    Please also do not forget who is fighting a campaign to restore Penalty Rates and for an increase in the Minimum Wage. Not The Greens’ Peter Whish-Wilson, that’s for sure.

  27. A quick google shows that these motions are put up on a regular basis. Appears to be tokenism – ‘Look, the Greens care. Are we going to do the actual hard work required to develop a meaningful Bill? Nah, we don’t care that much.”

  28. Yes, BK, a sincere thanks to you for your daily effort. There are many of us out here in the ether, that never want to come on to PB and get involved in somewhat petty arguments and fight the RGR wars over and over and over.

    But having said that, PB is a great site for quickly getting to informative articles. I religiously access the PB for that purpose alone. I am sure there are many others that do the same.

    So thanks again.

  29. Murphys article is interesting. I am not sure she believes Turnbull fixed it. It seems to me she is concerned Turnbull has changed the state of play and that (even tho the announcement was a specific change to ministerial code) it actually opens up scrutiny of all politicians private activity by the public, media and other politicians if they believe there is an issue of morality. It widens the public interest test the media will apply. It sanctions the sort of bile we got from Abbott about the unmarried Gillard. Truly a Turnbull tactical turd.

  30. as I said earlier, if BJoyce had used some common sense, he would have taken opportunity to resign before the by election.
    Got a job in the private sector and focussed on managing his new circumstances. He could have still gotten the free accommodation from his friend. But of course I suspect if BJoyce had left politics, perhaps his friend wasn’t going to be so generous. Quid pro quo and all that.

    Anyhoo. He would have done himself, his partner, his former family, his party, and the country a huge favour

    But as he is a pompous self absorbed entitled pr@@k, that was never going to happen.

  31. Zoomster

    All parties put up these motions. Its not a Greens speciality. Bernardi and Leyonhelm do it for whatever fruit loop idea pops into their heads. PHON does it all the time for some anti Muslim bs. Labor does it to Coalition Govs and Coalition does it to Lab Govts. Nothing special nothing new.

  32. For what It’s worth an ALP frontbencher let slip that Party polling is currently TPP 58/42 to the ALP as a result of the Beetroot mess. Much joy.
    If true, might explain Turnbull’s public words regarding Joyce yesterday. A knife slyly slipped between the shoulder blades.
    Barnaby is not happy with the choice of words at all.

  33. Sabre Lane was spouting the Turnbull sex ban as something corporations are already doing. Now, I know the AFL came down hard on execs doing this recently, but I am unaware of any concrete rules in place by corporations to this effect. Anyone else know if this is happening or is Lane just repeating what ‘someone’ told her?

  34. BK says:

    Maybe ministerial concubines could be provided.

    By using the you beaut Centrelink “intern’ scheme it will cost mere pennies. A win win situation. The Tudgebot will be right on to it once he hears this idea.

  35. boomy1, I am presuming that you are an out of work Baby Boomer, if I am putting 2 + 2 together properly. So, it therefore is also notable that Labor have a policy that relates to getting Baby Boomers into new jobs, where age discrimination is now the norm. A job pays a lot more than Newstart ever will!

  36. Good Morning

    Could the Joyce affair finally prompt Australian journalists to decide that the affairs of politicians are questions of public interest? At issue is whether voters have a right to know that a candidate espousing traditional values, and specifically the sanctity of marriage, has not been upholding them in his own life. An election took place while the affair, we now know, was going on. It’s possible this wouldn’t have made a difference — Mr. Joyce’s margin of victory was substantial, and voters are an unpredictable lot these days. But to point out that it was widely known in his district anyway, as some journalists have argued with a shrug, goes against the notion that it was too hard to find proof, as others have maintained.

    What about the “two consenting adults” defense, which even Mr. Joyce’s political opponents have trundled out? For starters, Mr. Joyce, as a strident opponent of gay marriage, has made it his business what other consenting adults do. We also don’t yet know whether or not public money was used to facilitate the relationship.

    Most important, though, we’re in the midst of a complicated and charged debate about workplace gender dynamics. This story is being received in a different way than it would have been even two or three months ago. Are journalists sufficiently confident in how readers think in these fluid days of 2018 to make the judgment that a powerful man’s relationship with a woman who works for him is not significant? In other words, is the media keeping up with the culture?

  37. Reading that Fact Check re: citizenship my sense is that both Lamb and Gallagher are gorne for all money.

    I’m pissed off. Labor DOES have good vetting processes but for candidates who leave it to the last minute before renouncing and NOT as a matter of caution attach their own birth certificate and that of the person who the can claim citizenship through lineage is just plain slack.

    It is a personal slackness and it must very uber frustrating for the party boffins who set up the vetting process – operating on the reasonable assumption that those who aspire to high office are capable of adult behaviour in getting their personal affairs in order without being micromanaged. It is an indictment on the quality of candidates that that assumption is apparently false.

  38. House intel panel leaders: Bannon refuses to answer many queries

    Steve Bannon, a former top adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, declined to answer many questions during his second closed-door meeting with the U.S. House Intelligence Committee on Thursday, frustrating members of the panel, Republican and Democratic committee leaders said.

    Republican Representative Mike Conaway and Democratic Representative Adam Schiff said Bannon would only answer 25 questions approved by the White House. He claimed executive privilege and special protections for White House communications in refusing to say more, they said.

  39. And how entitled must you really feel, to seek and take free accommodation from a benefactor as well.

    Because the benefactor is also a benefactee? Is there any sense of obligation? What’s going on? Does Macquire feel oblighed? Why? And why is no one asking?

    Datyari was hounded from Parliament for $1,600 in legal bills. What’s the difference, apart from Barnaby’s benefactor not being Chinese? Oh, and the much larger benefit involved?

  40. ‘Snap, Victoria.

    Labor has a basic position that any increase in spending needs to be paid for.

    Of course, working out how to fund something involves a little more pain than just handing out bags of money to people (however deserving). It might actually involve upsetting someone.

    You can understand why the Greens don’t want to go there.’

    oh! really, the greens are just pointing out something that anyone who was into fairness would say, and what is, and not. Unemployed doesn’t mean. dead though they are trying. Yes, I want Michaelia Cash ruling the world and I surely want to argue the toss on a small increase in the actual money to the person. I’m fucking angry that Labor has acquired such rich habits.

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