BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Poll trend latest: Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull up, One Nation down, two-party picture unchanged.

The only poll this week was a Newspoll that gave the Coalition its best result since last April, but given the pollster’s stability over that time, that isn’t saying all that much. Certainly it hasn’t made much difference to BludgerTrack, on which the Coalition improves only on the primary vote, and that at One Nation’s expense rather than Labor’s. The Coalition is up one on the seat projection in Queensland, but down one in Western Australia. The change is more noticeable on the leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval trend picking up sharply, and confirms his recent uptick on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

617 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. dtt….Of course the line between diplomacy, espionage and trade negotiation is blurred, and it may be assumed that every foreign national visiting another power is to some extent part of the process, be they a business person, academic or journalist or even a tourist.

    This is completely ridiculous. It is yet another attempt to deflect from Putin’s campaign against the democracies. To excuse Putin and his ensign, Trump, is to collaborate against constitutional democracy. It is to subvert free political expression and the legitimacy of democratic processes.

    It is also to grant a waiver to nationalist chauvinism, to racism, sexism and homophobia…and, in the context, to brutalities of various kinds, up to and including imprisonment, torture and murder.

    Those who subscribe to the Trumpo-Putinist project are conspiring with criminals.

  2. bob’s uncle: “meher baba: careful with the casual drowning blame-game. Australia’s immigration policies have always been pretty strict – the main differences between Labors “let them all in policy” and the Coalition’s “stop the boats” policy come down to boat turn-backs (not exactly legal) and TPVs (which are unusual and particularly cruel). Despite popular belief, Labor’s policies – particularly in later years with indefinite detention – were still punitive in respect of boat arrivals.”

    The first Rudd Government not only got rid of boat turnbacks and TPVs, they also got rid of offshore processing and mandatory indefinite detention. Within the first 2.5 years of the Rudd Government, 100 boats arrived. Around 6 months later, the Christmas Island disaster happened and, after that, policy was quickly shifted back towards the Howard Government’s approach.

    I don’t deny that the Libs played dirty politics with their crocodile tear-stained rejection of the Malaysia solution. But, in retrospect, the boat turnback policies implemented by Abbott have been far more effective than the Malaysia solution could ever have been.

  3. LNP will also win the state election in Tasmania South Australia and Victoria this year and they will make good primers for these states

  4. Dio – how about those perfect TV medics – Dr Kildare ( Richard Chamberlin ) Dr Ben Casey ( Vince Edwards )
    Dr Konrad Styner ( Richard Boone ) ………..

    I know , seeing you bear such a striking resemblance to a much more modern and super handsome Dr Doug Ross in ER – George Clooney !!!!!!

  5. Dio
    I know someone who was distinctly irked by Weary once but he blamed Dad.
    The context was a small town launch of some plaque to WW2 or other. This may have occurred some time in the eighties or nineties, but I am not too sure of the date.
    Anyway, they set up a mike, a couple of rows of chairs up the front for the local dignitaries and military vets, the plaque to be unveiled in the middle, and space for the local populace and schoolkids on the other side.
    The Shire mayor was up the front row with Weary who had been roped in to say a few words.
    In the second row, directly behind Weary, was my father who was a Burma railroad survivor.
    When the mayor started droning on and on and on, Dad quietly chanted a particular tune in Japanese.
    It was the counting rhythm for the prisoners who were lifting a large manual pile driver so that they lifted it in unison and then all let go of their ropes at the same time. I don’t know the words but can chant the cadence even though I have not heard it for decades.
    Dum de dum de da dah da dah. Boom.
    Dad did help build one of the bridges in this manner but was rather poorly paid and the OH&S was ordinary.
    Weary caught the tune and knew it instantly. Ignoring the mayor he turned and introduced himself to Dad whereat the two old lags started an impromptu conversation about their Burma railroad days.
    The Mayor was not impressed.

  6. zoomster @ #222 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 1:04 pm

    I find Tarantino’s films offensive. I find the level of violence depicted gratuitous in the extreme.

    Every now and again, I’m basically forced to watch one (usually visiting family members). The attraction eludes me.

    I feel exactly the same. The only one I recall seeing is Inglorious Basterds and I just thought it had absolutely nothing to commend it. Just a wildly far fetched plot and lots of gratuitous violence.

  7. Mafia chief clears underlings of wrongdoing:

    PM clears Barnaby on spending
    4:22PMROSIE LEWIS, GREG BROWN
    Malcolm Turnbull has reassured Bill Shorten that no money was inappropriately spent during Barnaby Joyce’s affair.

  8. Dio
    I accept what you are saying and it sort of makes sense to me.
    I was not a patient but a volunteer helper which is probably another category.

  9. meher baba

    I’m happy to see any sort of punishment applied to those who commit sexual assaults. I’m certainly not wanting to be an apologist for them. But I reckon that, give the authorities a taste – for whatever reason, even the best intentions – to start suppressing writing, paintings, music, etc. and it will just snowball and snowball and we’ll be back in the bad old days when you couldn’t read things like James Joyce’s Ulysses and Robert Graves’ translation of Suetonius. Or, most comically of all, a book called “Fun in Bed” which was banned on the basis of its title, and turned out to be activities to keep sick children amused!

    Oh, the old “Just Warning Everyone What Could Happen Even Though It Hasn’t Happened” defence –

    Because once we have a finding of guilt for an artistic person, then what fantasist group is next? The clergy? The wealthy? politicians? All the bastards who take advantage of others; destroy their lives?

    Yep, let’s let them get off scott free; let’s silence the people who are brave enough to speak out. Just in case, some twat who created a well-regarded piece gets caught up.

    Whatever floats your boat, meher baba

  10. LNP as been good for this great country of ours and will get us out of debt which the ALP got us intoNP as been good for this great country of ours and will get us out of debt which the ALP got us into

    That’ll be good. They can pay off the billions wasted on the copper NBN, billions wasted on opportunity cost in delaying the roll-out of cheap renewable energy, and deliver more money to offshore investors through tax cuts to corporations who only pay 12% tax on average as well.

  11. as far as I can see, Fiona Bigelli, who undertook the review, is a well-regarded investigator in this area.

    Can you link the report?
    She is a HR workplace consultant hired by the production company – it is in their interests for this to go away. Reading between the lines of what December Media said about the report I would confidently say he would have been sacked from any reasonable company in any other field.

  12. Fiona Bigelli, who undertook the review, is a well-regarded investigator in this area

    Well-regarded by whom? What process did she use in her investigation? What was the reasoning behind her conclusion?

    It looks like a whitewash. It is just a PR stunt to get someone to say, “Cleared!”, with no explanation as to why they reached this conclusion and what dissenting views were expressed.

  13. I see that two of the dumber posters here – one from the extreme left and one from the extreme right – have demonstrated yet again this afternoon that they have no idea at all about how politics actually works.

  14. email from GetUp re MDB:

    BREAKING: new documents reveal that the NSW Primary Industries Minister altered an agreed-upon water plan to give away even more water to irrigators, under pressure from big irrigator lobbyists.1 We have done so much to fight for the Murray but there’s more to do.
    ::::

    In a powerful video, Fred Hooper, a Murrawarri man and traditional owner of river red gum country on the Murray showed politicians the devastating impacts that water theft and mismanagement were having on his country. As the ALP were deciding whether to support water cuts or protect the river — his call to protect the river was heard by hundreds of thousands of people.

    And it worked. The ALP decided to join the Greens and block the cuts, which meant we helped save 70 billion litres of water in the Murray!

    The next few months will be critical for the Murray Darling, with different inquiries and votes coming up — and with them an opportunity to keep six times the amount of water we just protected in the river system. But we’ll need every trick in the book to win this fight and we need to keep it up until the end of the year to make a difference.

    :::
    Over the next months, NSW ICAC and a South Australia Royal Commission will report their findings on corruption surrounding the Murray Darling Basin Plan. We’ll hear from the federal senate inquiry that has also been investigating water theft and mismanagement of the Murray Darling system.

  15. “Wayne says:
    Friday, February 9, 2018 at 5:10 pm
    Trog your the only fuckwit here you know that u are another LNP supporter and want turnbull to be PM now”

    Wayne looks to be about 12yo and in desperate need of some lessons in basic grammar.

  16. Rhwombat
    Mari: while following Ms Best down the intertube rabbit hole I came across this interesting piece of political archeology: Stephen Mayne’s list of where 220 ex-Howard staffers are now (now being 2004). Some interesting names on the list.
    Yes saw it agree

  17. meher baba

    I happen to agree with much of what you express. Not this time.

    I’m having a go at what you say because I don’t think you’ve thought it through. Precisely because you have never been subjected to sexual assault you so casually dismiss it in favour of artistic merit.

    If you were on the receiving end, I doubt you’d be so magnanimous.

  18. Frank Biongiorno on Bob Hawke (with some relevance to the discussion on Joyce):

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-09/how-bob-hawke-came-to-be-one-of-the-best-and-luckiest-pms/9415524

    The program’s discussion of his philandering is more coy than its handling of his drinking, but the expression on Hawke government minister Susan Ryan’s face when discussing Mr Hawke’s relationship with women paints 1,000 words.

    Hawke: The Larrikin and The Leader, a two-part series, airs February 11 and February 18 on ABC and iview.

  19. Oh gosh!

    “Wayne says:
    Friday, February 9, 2018 at 5:15 pm
    Citizen I think you need it to and me thinks at your a secret LNP supporter just like your fuckwit mate Trog”

  20. LNP as been good for this great country of ours and will get us out of debt which the ALP got us into

    Are they going to pay off the even bigger debt they’ve got us in to as well?

  21. Wayne says:
    Friday, February 9, 2018 at 5:24 pm
    Citizen your that secret LNP supporter and you know it and want turnbull to be PM forever

    _______________________

    The acne is strong with this one.

  22. Do Wayne and ESJ live together ????? – have Conjugal rights ?????? – or just sit next to each other in Menzies House Bot Hacker/Sock Puppet computer room ?????

  23. William

    Just noticed you are tuned in and I’ve been waiting to ask you a question.

    I seem to recall that when Possum used to post here some years ago it was his theory that a significant uplift in the netsats of the PM was often followed some time later by a lift in the party’s 2pp (or something like that). So if Turnbull’s netsats continue to improve , or at least not deteriorate, would you be expecting the Liberal 2pp to show an improvement as a consequence?

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