BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Poll trend latest: Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull up, One Nation down, two-party picture unchanged.

The only poll this week was a Newspoll that gave the Coalition its best result since last April, but given the pollster’s stability over that time, that isn’t saying all that much. Certainly it hasn’t made much difference to BludgerTrack, on which the Coalition improves only on the primary vote, and that at One Nation’s expense rather than Labor’s. The Coalition is up one on the seat projection in Queensland, but down one in Western Australia. The change is more noticeable on the leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval trend picking up sharply, and confirms his recent uptick on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

617 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. C@

    The base player, JJ(?) who was supposed to be a bit of a tear away was more interested in talking about chamber music than telling me anything interesting about their tour!

  2. As much as Barnaby’s failure to keep it in his pants is a source of ongoing amusement, I’d much prefer the media give a little more coverage to some his other actions, including:

    * overriding his own department’s advice to wildly overpay political donors for water entitlements – taxpayer cost: $10’s of millions;

    * moving a government department from Canberra to his electorate, in the meantime losing most of the experienced staff since even Canberra seems like Paris compared to Armidale (apologies to any Armidalos out there) – taxpayer cost: $10’s of millions;

    * being caught on tape telling irrigators that the Government wouldn’t take water theft seriously after billions of taxpayer dollars were spent buying back water entitlements from the Murray-Darling.

    There seems to be a view that somehow this is all just par for the course in the countryside. As though we should all feel guilty about living in the comfort of cities and should turn a blind eye to corruption so long as it’s true-blue-ocker-outback corruption. For gawdsake this guy is the deputy PM and surely his (non-pants-related) actions also deserve more attention.

  3. Re the current rather prurient public debate – Me Too, etc. – like BW, I really don’t like where all this Me Too stuff is heading. Eg, the current chief target in the US, Quentin Tarantino, does not appear to be accused of having sexually harassed anyone. His main crimes appear to have been 1) speaking a bit loosely when joining umpteen other Hollywood celebrities in defending Roman Polanski and 2) having adopted inadequate work health and safety practices in a scene featuring Uma Thurman, for which we have forgiven him. We will probably now see Tarantino hounded out of the film industry and his excellent body of past work permanently banned.

    What next? Blacklisting everyone who defended Polanski (including Cate Blanchett, who named her son after him) or who ever liked Harvey Weinstein (including Judi Dench, who once wore a fake tattoo of his name on her bum)? That will leave Hollywood a rather empty place.

    The bottom line is that lots of the greatest human intellects and artists have been major root rats and quite often sleazy creeps to boot . Several of the leading Greek philosophers and artists appeared to have enjoyed multiple sexual relationships with teenage – and possibly even pre-teen – boys, and this behaviour was far unknown among many more recent writers, artists, etc, including some who remain quite fashionable and acceptable. Are we going to systematically ban all their works, a la the Manchester Art Gallery’s recent removal (thankfully, reversed) of JW Waterhouse’s Hylas and the Nymphs?

    Are Woody Allen’s movies (some of which represent the pinnacle of American humour) all going to be banned? What about the works of Lewis Carroll? Where does it all end?

  4. Meher
    Well said.

    I have no brief for Barnaby nor his girl friend by moving her to another job is just normal practice.

    When did we become so puritanical?

    I sued to be proud of the way we in Australia stayed out of peopl’e bedrooms. Now we seem to have sunk to the despicable levles of the US and UK.

    Yuk!!!!!!

  6. dtt

    ‘However if it is wrong for Russia to hack the US or interfere with elections it is equally wrong for the US to interfere in the elections of others.’

    The issue is a matter of US electoral law, which makes foreign interference in a US election illegal.

    You don’t seem to be able to grasp that.

  7. adrian: “You ok for someone to get paid 6 figures for doing nothing because they happen to be rooting the Deputy PM? In all your vast experience?”

    What’s your evidence for the proposition that she was “doing nothing”? All I’ve read was that it was a “digital and social media position.” A quick look online shows that Canavan has a highly active Facebook page (albeit his twitter account is far less active, but that might be a sensible strategic decision on his part).

    “Six figures” sounds like a lot, but, if that includes superannuation and the allowances in lieu of overtime that parliamentary staff receive, the base salary could be as little $75k or so.

  8. Yes, ‘digital and media position’. Maintaining a Facebook page. Imagine all the overtime that would attract. The mind truly boggles.

    Happy to do that for a 5 figure sum, since it would probably take about 5 hours per week max and be a lot less stressful than what I am currently doing.

  9. I suspect that the daily telegraph wanted to manage the scandal in Joyce’s favour. Better that, than his four daughters and ex wife doing full page stories in the papers and Woman’s day. The fact that there is obviously a lot more to this scandal than is being reported is now obvious. It appears is own colleagues within the nationals are less than impressed with Barnaby’s conduct as it has affected their own positions within the govt.

    Beware woman scorned and colleagues scorned

    Turnbull and Joyce had better watch out

  11. Zoomster

    I think that is a total furphy.

    First sure if there were US citizens involved, they broke the law and if proven then jail time. No problemo.

    However as the the foreigners trying to influence the US citizens – that is international espionage at its John Le Carre best and truly to get all hot under the collar about it is absurd.
    Of bloody course russia will try to influcne US politicians to its advantage, as will those from the UK, Germany, China and even australia.

    They will do this to the extent they can get away with it.

    Der!!!!!

    You seem to get all confused about national interest and somehow assume that Russia (or australia) shouyld be looking to the interets of the USA first.

    My view is that it is up to the USA to prevent citizens breaking the law, and/or being involved in spying or treason. Of course russia will try its hand and getting people in the US to do its bidding just as the USA will try to get people in Russia, or China or Australia to do its bidding.

    Of course the line between diplomacy, espionage and trade negotiation is blurred, and it may be assumed that every foreign national visiting another power is to some extent part of the process, be they a business person, academic or journalist or even a tourist.

    When we make it easy for Japanese or Chinese tourists or if China has big opening ceremonies they are each subtly influencing perceptions of the nation – seeking goodwill – soft diplomacy.

    Trade is naother form of soft diplomacy.

    Then wyou get to the pointy end – information seeking, merges to espoiage merges to trying to “turn people”

    It is not a simple case of “against the law” The law applies to US citizens – not to Russians or Patagonians.

  13. Several of the leading Greek philosophers and artists appeared to have enjoyed multiple sexual relationships with teenage – and possibly even pre-teen – boys

    Yeah. I am glad that got an airing on PB.

    mb, sexual harassment perpetrated on those less powerful has no place in the workplace (or anywhere – but lets keep it to the point). It is has far reaching consequences beyond the harassment. On a personal level it is ugly and destructive but has broader implications – especially on the importance of greater gender diversity in all levels of the workplace. Fixing this is good for people, families, good for companies and good for the economy. It is not a niche lefty inner city issue and it makes no difference be it accountants, engineers, politicians or artists or actors.

    Correcting the years of neglect on this issue will be messy – it probably needs to be in order to properly change the culture.

  15. Zoomster

    And you aresaying that it is not against the law for the US to interfere in russian or Ukrainian or Australian politics.

    Treason is treason even in Australia and frankly if for example politicians or public servants negiotiate deals with the USA that are not in australia’s best interests and it can be proven that they did so knowingly ie preferred the US (or China or Russia) over Australian interests then jail time for them.

    Whjere you absurd super hypocrisy emerges is that you think it is AOK for the UK to interfere with US politics not Russia. Who in the name of dog do you think Steele was really working for. He was a Britsh national imnfluencing US politics.

    Is he not also guilty of a crime, along with the FBI who used his information and seemingly encouraged him?

    If Steele was Vasily Ivanov you would be screaming Russian influence.

  16. meher baba @ #194 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 9:27 am

    Re Joyce, Vicki Campion, etc.

    In Government circles (Parliament House, bureaucracy) it is routine practice for someone who becomes romantically involved with their immediate boss to be offered a transfer to another job: both to avoid any appearance or actuality of a conflict of interest and also to avoid disadvantaging the person: the idea that the act of falling in love should lead to your being sacked and on the dole queue doesn’t seem fair to most people, and rightly so IMO.

    As a senior media advisor to Joyce, Ms Campion was no doubt receiving a six figure salary and therefore it was reasonable for her to continue to do so when transferred to Canavan’s office.

    This sort of thing has happened in the past with Labor Ministers, as has cases in which the Minister has not transferred their staff member out of their office after the romantic activity began.

    Speaking as someone who has seen a fair bit of this stuff from close at hand, I can only say that this issue represents a massive glass house for all political parties and I would be astonished if any current or former politician would dare to throw a stone at Joyce.

    Yes, he represented himself as a solid family man with traditional values. Yes, he was married to someone else and there have been suggestions (I’m not sure if they are correct ) that Ms Campion was also. There are many current and former politicians from both sides who could chime in with “been there, done that, got the T-shirt.”

    Yep, I agree.

    The only issue I have with transfer is the suggestion that a position was created for her.

    If it was a case of Canavan’s equivalent employee going to work for Barnaby then I wouldn’t have an issue with that.

  18. imacca

    then Phalanx cannon, which will get replaced by laser as the last ditch high volume of fire defense.

    ‘

    There was a time when western countries who had a navy with Phalanx and some sort of locally owned merchant fleet would have merchant ships of the right size and type, including old liners or cruise ships, fitted with the mounting plates for Phalanx. Actual fitting of the weapon itself not very complicated if the chain feed has the right ‘drop’ and only one consul is needed at it’s most basic.

  19. Where does it all end?

    I don’t know, but I certainly hope it doesn’t end back at the status quo ante whereby the powerful would routinely sexually harass and assault their employees and aspiring employees under threat of career death, and it be routinely covered up by their powerful mates.

    Are we going to systematically ban all their works…?

    No, but it certainly helps to contextualise it. Just like you can listen to Wagner, but it helps to be aware of the anti-semitism.

    Personally, the surrounding context means I don’t watch Allen’s works (and in haven’t for quite some time), but I will watch Tarantino’s. Your mileage may of course vary.

  20. ‘And you aresaying that it is not against the law for the US to interfere in russian or Ukrainian or Australian politics.’

    1. Depends on the laws of each country.

    2. Whether it is or isn’t, is irrelevant to the issue, which is whether Trump and/or his campaign staff knowingly accepted foreign assistance of any kind in the course of his campaign. If he/they have, US law has been broken. That’s why there’s an investgation.

  21. Meher Baba:

    Your post responding to the Me2 movement demonstrates either your ignorance or absence of empathy of the harm done not just to women but our whole society by exploitative males in authority positions.

    In all your hyperbolic statements (blacklisting Blanchet, really, this is a thing?) you do not once descend to consider the harm.

    As it happens I am an enthusiastic admirer of Woody Allen’s films. I will continue to watch them whatever his reputation, albeit with diminished interest. I will understand others who are not so keen are entitled to avoid them. I would oppose them being banned. I would like any person (and there seem to be some) who alleges Woody Allen did disturbing things to them to be heard respectfully. I will let those who are in a position to make judgments make judgments.

    Jon Faine’s radio program today has given voice to alleged victims of male exploitation. Great stuff. Whether the women who told of their tales are complete BSers or telling the truth is not the only point. We know such things DO happen.

    They should not be hidden away or shut up because YOU think it is prurient ffs.

  22. I find Tarantino’s films offensive. I find the level of violence depicted gratuitous in the extreme.

    Every now and again, I’m basically forced to watch one (usually visiting family members). The attraction eludes me.

  23. daretotread:

    It is not a simple case of “against the law” The law applies to US citizens – not to Russians or Patagonians.

    This is just not the case. There’s a reason why most foreign agents are Official Cover agents – that gives them diplomatic protection, so that if their activities are discovered the worst that can happen is that they get sent home.

    Non-Official Cover agents, on the other hand, can and do face criminal charges for breaking the local laws.

  24. Windhover @ #221 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 1:03 pm

    Meher Baba:

    Your post responding to the Me2 movement demonstrates either your ignorance or absence of empathy of the harm done not just to women but our whole society by exploitative males in authority positions.

    In all your hyperbolic statements (blacklisting Blanchet, really, this is a thing?) you do not once descend to consider the harm.

    As it happens I am an enthusiastic admirer of Woody Allen’s films. I will continue to watch them whatever his reputation, albeit with diminished interest. I will understand others who are not so keen are entitled to avoid them. I would oppose them being banned. I would like any person (and there seem to be some) who alleges Woody Allen did disturbing things to them to be heard respectfully. I will let those who are in a position to make judgments make judgments.

    Jon Faine’s radio program today has given voice to alleged victims of male exploitation. Great stuff. Whether the women who told of their tales are complete BSers or telling the truth is not the only point. We know such things DO happen.

    They should not be hidden away or shut up because YOU think it is prurient ffs.

    Well said Windhover.

  26. Until such time as the Coalition and the media play fair, Barnabygate and future ‘gates’ like it are fair game. No point just one side playing nice.

    Given that Labor doesn’t have a major media organisation at its disposal, behaving the same way as the Coalition would if the positions were reversed is not an option. In any case, Shorten should stay above the fray, leaving the dirty work to an attack dog. But to the extent possible, Labor and its allies should go full Genghis Khan on this sort of thing.

    At some future time, when Labor is securely in office and the Coalition is supine in defeat, maybe we could call a truce.

  27. Victoria says : Friday, February 9, 2018 at 1:08 pm

    PhoenixRed

    Congratulations on the arrival of your grandson!!!

    ****************************************************

    THANKS Victoria – I am sure for all the parents on here, it is a great moment indeed to see your children grown up and having the great joy of their own children brought into the world. 🙂

  28. I generally like Tarantino’s style but can’t agree that Hateful 8 was superior to either Kill Bill or Inglorious Basterds.

    Although as ever the cinematography, soundtrack and all elements of design were exquisite, I found it to be utter garbage in the plot and dialogue stakes. So much so that it was the point at which I ceased anticipating his future work.

    The man is a genius film-maker but I can’t help think collaborating on the scriptwriting with some more talented writer wouldn’t hurt.

  31. Victoria says: Friday, February 9, 2018 at 1:22 pm

    PhoenixRed

    I’m sure it is. So far for me it has only been a fur baby!!

    ************************************************

    You have always spoken most highly and proudly of your children on here – so I am sure they will return the favour to you in good time !!!!

  34. i have spoken to several people about the Barnaby matter. What has made this somewhat distasteful is that he in fact had a by election campaign right smack bang in the middle of his changed circumstances.

    Imagine that a Deputy Prime Minister having to go to a by election due to a dual citizenship who also happens to be expecting a child with a new partner. Surely if he was proud and excited, he could of announced anytime during his campaigning, Did he once mention the pride in his new circumstances? Of course not. He deliberately kept the matter private.

    It was his own daughters who were hurt and deceived by his duplicitous conduct that belled the cat by travelling around the town telling anyone who would listen.

    And to top it off, ministers were given the boot in the reshuffle to accommodate Barnaby’s sensibilities of his very private matter.

  35. Victoria says: Friday, February 9, 2018 at 1:23 pm

    PhoenixRed

    Btw did you see the tweet by Counterchekist that I posted at the top of thread this morning?

    **************************************************************

    Yes indeed !!!! ….. and it is so right – the hacking does not just have to be hacking of the end results or voting machines – but the MANIPULATION of rolls to exclude people and voter suppression …… the gathering of data on individuals and their preferences/prejudices ( Trump Campaign Members/CambridgeAnalytica etc ) and then feeding them targeted individual messages through social media to poison their vote ……. and on and on …….its a new world with the internet and a new phase of targeting individuals with propaganda on a level never seen before ….. I hope it all eventually comes out and it will just continue to be influential if the US buries its head in the sand to the greatest cyber crime ever pulled so far and lets it repeat in future elections …

  36. Without denying all the unfair attention that women have had to suffer:

    1. It seems unfair that it is rarely the ‘boss’ who has to resign because of a relationship.
    2. It is not only men who are sexual predators.

  37. Louise Neu ‏ @ninaandtito

    De-anonymize voter rolls (hacked by GRU/SVR); match voter profiles to BigData compiled consumer/online profiles (Cambridge Analytica)
    Microtarget (Red Metrics/GilesParscale/Majoritas/ConnellDonatelli) w shite content (Bytion/Examiner, etc) trustwashed by Twitchy/Breitbart/Fox.

    Counterchekist @counterchekist

    That’s the best way to ‘hack’ an election—First, use hacked data to micro-target voters with propaganda to suppress turn out, then ensure your opponent’s voters cannot vote even if they show up by changing the registries. Clean, easy, and less chance of getting caught.

  38. PhoenixRed

    As can be seen Trump and his cohorts are getting more shrill by the day.
    They are going to be exposed.

    As I said other day, Trump is probably headed for a padded cell rather than a jail cell.

  39. Best Tarantino film (that I’ve seen) – Jackie Brown.

    OK, probably not, but its usually underrated and I like to even up the ledger on account of the devine Pam Greer …

  40. At the moment it seems Barnaby/Canavan/Turnbull are under greater threat from Murdoch’s DT and the RW shock jocks than the ABC and Fairfax.

    Shock jock Smith today raised the matter of the job for Barnaby’s mistress in Canavan’s office and suggested this was not a good thing.

    Turnbull faces a greater threat than Barnaby or Canavan if he is found to have been involved in this.

  42. Thank God Malcolm’s on the come-back trail, and that Bill Shorten’s dead meat, or else Barnaby getting his new mistress in the family way, while shuffling her round his ministers’ various offices at taxpayer expense, as his daughter drove through Armidale telling the world about it might not have played well at all, out here in Punterland.

  43. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-09/labor-majority-under-threat-in-vic-as-mp-considers-bid-for-mayor/9412890

    The Labor Government’s majority in the Victorian Parliament could be reduced to the slimmest of margins, with former minister Jane Garrett “considering” quitting for a tilt at the Melbourne lord mayorship.

    If Ms Garret decides to contest the mayoral election, triggered by Robert Doyle’s resignation, it would force a by-election in the marginal seat of Brunswick, where the Greens are threatening to topple Labor.

    The current margin is just 2.2 per cent and Labor are worried, given the hammering it received in neighbouring Northcote in last November’s byelection.

    If it loses Brunswick, Labor would hold just 44 seats in the 88-member house, but it could rely on the vote of former caucus member Don Nardella.

    Mr Nardella sits in Parliament as an independent after being forced from the Labor Party after an entitlements scandal.

    ::::
    The potential bid for the mayorship comes amidst a major factional realignment in the Victorian Labor Party, with Ms Garrett’s Industrial Left group striking a new arrangement with the Centre Unity grouping of the Right.

    Under that deal, a new federal seat would go the Industrial Left and some have suggested it could go to Ms Garrett.

  44. For the handful of rumours which have proven to be true there were dozens swirling which were not.

    One such rumour that persists was that was one of Mr Joyce’s daughters was driving down Peel St in a car with “Barnaby Joyce” branding, yelling at people not to vote for him through a megaphone. I sat down with the family yesterday. They have told me it did not happen.

    http://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/5215548/insight-how-the-leader-tried-to-get-answers-on-barnaby-joyces-affair/?cs=159

  45. windhover: “Your post responding to the Me2 movement demonstrates either your ignorance or absence of empathy of the harm done not just to women but our whole society by exploitative males in authority positions.”

    I didn’t actually say what I thought about the issue of harm caused by exploitative males. I am incredibly sympathetic about this, and believe that the perpetrators should be dealt with both by the organisations/institutions in which they work and, where appropriate, by the criminal justice system.

    But I do have some concerns about the #metoo and related stuff. Here are two of them:

    1. As regular PB readers will know, I am highly critical of the criminal justice system. Nevertheless, I think that the concept of “innocent until proven guilty” is one of the bedrocks of our civilised society. #metoo has shown itself not to care two hoots about that: to take one example, Woody Allen has never even been charged, let alone convicted, of anything. Charges were considered in relation to his alleged assault of his daughter, and then dropped. Yet we are currently witnessing a witch hunt towards him. That’s just plain wrong IMO, just as it is for Craig McLachlan and many others. We witnessed the depraved depths of trial by media in the Chamberlain case: on of the lowest points in modern Australian history.

    2. I am concerned that #metoo is starting to move on from being a witch hunt against people who have been accused of behaving badly to a witch hunt against thought crimes: including past and present statements about these matters that are not acceptable to the #metoo brigade (eg, Quentin Tarantino on Polanski) and the works of art produced by the alleged harassers and even of those artists who simply had unacceptable thoughts (eg, Tarantino again). This starts to look Orwellian to me, or even a bit reminiscent of the fatwa against Salman Rushdie. It’s a growing tendency of the contemporary “identity”-obsessed left to want to silence people who they consider “unsafe”. It’s a slippery slope IMO: over the history of the world, the human societies that have functioned the best have been those in which a reasonable level of free speech has been accepted.

    Another point re artists and their bad behaviour/ideas is that people who possess great talent have often been highly neurotic or even certifiably mentally ill. Someone mentioned Wagner earlier and I remember, years ago (when the ABC still bothered to regularly screen documentaries about the arts), I watched a show about Wagner, which featured a New York rabbi who was a massive Wagner enthusiast. The interviewer asked the rabbi how he could possibly do this, and the rabbi replied along the lines of “Of course you and I are not anti-semites. Anti-semitism is a madness, and Wagner was mad. But he had the sort of madness that also enabled him to write Parsifal, which is something you or I could never do.”

    So, to sum up, I’m in favour of seeking out and punishing the perpetrators, but I think this should always be done through due process. But let’s not start trying to ban works of art and police inappropriate thoughts. To quote another great artist, Bob Dylan,
    “If my thought dreams could be seen, they’d probably put my head in a guillotine.”

  46. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-09/bartlett-to-leave-greens-senate-seat-opening-door-larissa-waters/9415586

    Today he confirmed he would instead seek preselection for the Greens in the seat of Brisbane, in an attempt to bolster the party’s presence in the House of Representatives.

    “It’ll be a hard one, but we’ve just shown we can make big gains in the state election,” Senator Bartlett told ABC Radio Brisbane.

    “We had a breakthrough win in Maiwar in the State Parliament … and I know how important the Senate is, but if you really want to get a big shift away from the entrenched problems that the two established parties have created for our communities then the House of Reps is the way to do it.”

  47. Re Tarantino: I liked Reservoir Dogs, Pulp Fiction and Jackie Brown. Inglourious Basterds (or however it was spelt) was ok without being outstanding. Didn’t much like the rest. But, on his day, he’s a major talent: up there with other now dreadful types like Alfred Hitchcock and Woody Allen.

  48. Jacqueline Maley on Molan and the Overton Window in re-framing debates:

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/letting-the-far-right-in-how-jim-molan-helped-give-extremism-a-respectable-face-20180208-h0vsal.html

    The far-right movement could not ask for a better or more respectable front than the office of a Liberal senator with an honourable record of military service.

    If you believe that the extreme-right will never be able to weasel its way into the political mainstream in Australia like it has in the United States, remember this: last year we had a serious debate about the mass internment of terrorism suspects, which is to say, Muslim people who have not been convicted of any crime.

    Who kicked it off? Pauline Hanson, and one Jim Molan, who wrote a piece for the Herald-Sun suggesting internment of people on terror “watchlists”.

  49. Best Tarantino film (that I’ve seen) – Jackie Brown.

    OK, probably not, but its usually underrated and I like to even up the ledger on account of the devine Pam Greer …

    Oh yes, I with you on that.

    But have you read Rum Punch? There’s another half-dozen parallel plots running through it.

  50. “From supplements which claim to suppress your hunger to tablets which say they’ll increase your libido, consumers will have no way of finding out whether these products actually work,” she said.

    They could try buying them and then considering the outcome. That doesn’t seem too hard.

    Of course, they might gain benefit from the placebo effect…

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/softens-hardness-tga-under-fire-for-health-claim-list-that-endorses-pseudoscience-20180207-h0vfst.html?btis

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