BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Poll trend latest: Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull up, One Nation down, two-party picture unchanged.

The only poll this week was a Newspoll that gave the Coalition its best result since last April, but given the pollster’s stability over that time, that isn’t saying all that much. Certainly it hasn’t made much difference to BludgerTrack, on which the Coalition improves only on the primary vote, and that at One Nation’s expense rather than Labor’s. The Coalition is up one on the seat projection in Queensland, but down one in Western Australia. The change is more noticeable on the leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval trend picking up sharply, and confirms his recent uptick on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

617 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. Early start for me today

    Counterchekist has been very reliable as far as the Trump Imbroglio goes…….

    That’s the best way to ‘hack’ an election—First, use hacked data to micro-target voters with propaganda to suppress turn out, then ensure your opponent’s voters cannot vote even if they show up by changing the registries. Clean, easy, and less chance of getting caught.

    Look, I’ve said tRUmp & co committed treason; that they stole the election from HRC w/ Russia’s help; that Sean Hannity is going to prison; that a few world leaders (past & present) are in big trouble etc.

    Why on earth would I hold back on hacked vote tallies if it was true?
    Disclaimer time (again): Note what the article doesn’t say— that actual vote tallies were hacked/altered. Do not confuse ‘voter suppression’ with ‘hacked machines.’ They are not remotely the same. Vote tallies were not hacked in 2016. Period.
    3:00 AM · Feb 9, 2018

  2. JUST three months after being elevated to the Australian Senate, Greens Senator for Queensland Andrew Bartlett has said that he will not recontest his seat at the next federal election, instead opting to run as a candidate in the lower house seat of Brisbane.

    Mr Bartlett told The Courier-Mail that he was withdrawing, effective immediately, from the Greens Senate preselection process for the next election. He said that, while nominations had already closed, no ballot papers had been distributed to members.

    In the remaining field of seven candidates, the two leading contenders are former Greens Senator Larissa Waters, and anti-coal activist and former Brisbane Mayoral candidate Ben Pennings.

    Mr Bartlett would not comment on expectations that Ms Waters would be favoured to win the ballot, saying only that “obviously, that is totally up to members”.

    He said, however, that the time was right for a bid to shift to the lower house.

    “While I believe I had a credible chance of winning the preselection for the Senate ticket, I also feel now is a great time for our party to build on the very strong momentum from the state election in winning the seat of Maiwar from the LNP and getting big swings in many other seats, including those within the seat of Brisbane, such as McConnel, Clayfield, Stafford and Cooper.”

  3. And some more allegations on the Bonking Beetroot (mustn’t Turnbull’s fan club in the CPG be loving his Coalition’s implosion barely a week into his triumphal reset).

    So, a round up of the latest

    1. Matt Canavan allegedly ‘invented’ a media position in his office to be filled by the Beetroot’s lover. This is the ‘jobs for the girl’ headline in today’s Daily TurdBurgler
    2. Remember that odd Turnbull reshuffle in December when Darren Chester and Keith Pitt were ‘boned’ and Turnbull said it was for regional balance reasons? Well actually it was because those 2 were getting up the Bonking Beetroot over his behaviour. Criticise your lecherous boss? Get demoted.
    3. Tony Windsor is reminding his twitter followers that Ms Campion is not the only one of Beetroot’s Bonking, and other adventures are likely to be revealed

  4. This is Windsor’s tweet on Feb 6. “the main story has Joyce petrified”.

    Tony Windsor‏ @TonyHWindsor · Feb 6
    Tony Windsor Retweeted Jacqueline Maley

    The Markson Smelly Graph story is another diversion from the main story …this is the third time she has been the puppet for Joyce …the main story has Joyce petrified. Markson dutifully leads the hounds away from the rotting carcass .#auspol

  5. Sprocket. Points 1 & 2 mean the story definitely passes the public interest test.
    Ides, the problem for Windsor is that as a rival (or former rival), what he says about Barnaby is easily discounted. He needs the media to chase it.

  6. George W. Bush reveals ‘clear evidence’ Russia meddled in 2016 election

    USA Today reports that Bush made his comments about Russian interference at a conference being held in the United Arab Emirates this week that was sponsored by the Milken Institute think tank.

    While Bush said he didn’t know whether Russian meddling actually affected the outcome of the election, he was still troubled by the damage that such meddling can do to American democracy.

    “It’s problematic that a foreign nation is involved in our election system,” he said. “Our democracy is only as good as people trust the results.”

  7. `Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Mark Kenny writes that we are shaping for a full on business tax cut election.
    George W. Bush has accused Russia of meddling in the 2016 US presidential election, calling Russian President Vladimir Putin a “brilliant tactician”.
    Gay Alcorn begins this article with “Barnaby Joyce is the deputy prime minister. Take it up one peg and imagine prime minister Malcolm Turnbull having an affair with a staff member and he and his wife Lucy splitting up. And imagine if the now former staffer was pregnant with Turnbull’s baby”.
    And Michelle Grattan asks, “Is Barnaby’s baby a matter of “public interest” or just of interest to the public?”
    Dave Donovan has his say over how the media handled the Barnaby Joyce affair.–root-and-branch-,11182
    Simon Holmes à Court gives the “slimy” Minerals Council both barrels.
    The head of the World Bank compared cryptocurrencies to “Ponzi schemes”, the latest financial voice to raise questions about the legitimacy of digital currencies such as Bitcoin.
    Peter Martin tells us how the Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has hit out at calls for a rise in interest rates, saying he won’t adjust the bank’s record low cash rate of 1.5 per cent any time soon and he won’t be swayed by increases overseas.
    The major banks have promised not to enforce confidentiality agreements that were threatening to stop victims or whistleblowers from giving evidence to the royal commission into industry misconduct.
    Here’s Evan Jones’ Part 4 of his series on the Clayton’s banking royal commission.–root-and-branch-,11182
    Molan has refused to accept Bandt’s apology.
    The TGA needs a good kick up the clacker serving up this crap! Yes, I’m not happy about it giving the green light to rapacious charlatans.
    More on this stupidity from Esther Han.
    Catherine McGregor writes that Bill Shorten has peaked – and Malcolm Turnbull has him in his sights.–and-malcolm-turnbull-has-him-in-his-sights-20180208-h0vrnm.html
    Jess Irvine on the Grattan Institute’s call to scrap the super guarantee in favour of boosted wages.
    More trouble for Barnaby as the pesticides authority is facing another probe as it moves to Armidale, after a parliamentary inquiry began looking into the agency.
    Jennifer Hewett says that banning sexual relationships at work is absurd. Google.
    London’s famous fatbergs. Yuk!
    Gladys Berejiklian is under pressure to explain why she agreed to meet two publicans with criminal records including for arson and attempted insurance fraud and illegally owning poker machines late last year.
    Laura Tingle contrasts Brandis and Joyce. Google.
    Is the Sydney train dispute nearly over?
    Hunt will promise an extra $30 billion for hospitals from 2020 but the offer may not be enough to stave off a messy health funding fight. The Labor-held states of Victoria, Queensland and South Australia are expected to argue the money will leave them short-changed, and the NSW Liberal government has also signalled it could demand more from the federal government.
    Warning signs of domestic and family violence are being ignored because of a misconception that the abuse must be physical for it to be reported, a parliamentary inquiry has heard.
    Michael Koziol looks at McGowan’s call for a parliamentary bonking ban.
    How Microsoft turned itself around. It became more boring.
    Jenna Price explains the problem with Facebook and how it will change.
    Serious doubts have emerged about the accuracy of Victoria Police’s firearms registry amid growing concerns about the number of guns available on the black market. This is not a good look!
    Peter martin tells us that new official crime figures show Victoria is safer than it has been at any time for the past 10 years.
    This is an interesting approach to improving students’ progress in mathematics.
    Coalmining companies were given approval to clear nearly 10% of what is now a critically endangered forest in the New South Wales Hunter Valley over the past decade, according to evidence before a government commission.
    The SMH editorial gets behind the Winter Olympic.
    It is troubling for the UK that its government has sanctioned the world’s first repeal of same-sex marriage rights as Boris Johnson puts politics above principle in Bermuda.
    Lawyer Duncan Fine writes “When judges wear wigs and robes, what’s so offensive about a niqab?´
    Lisa Bryant on the value and plight of early childcare workers.

    Cartoon Corner

    Mark Knight with a ripper here on Barnaby!

    David Rowe and closing the gap.

    David Pope and the banning of the Eureka flag.

    Cathy Wilcox and the four pillars.

    John Shakespeare with a portrait of Barnaby.

    Mark David rains on Trump’s parade.

    Peter Broelman goes up into space to give Barnaby a whack.

    Paul Zanetti gets the boot into Barnaby too.

    Matt Golding and an explanation for the stock market correction.

    Two more from Golding.

    This one is a cracker!!!

    Look at this gif of Trump and his parade!
    From NZ’s Rod Emerson.

    Jon Kudelka and the bonking ban.

    Alan Moir with the current distraction.

    Jon Kudelka with the Jacqui Lambie Party constitution.

  8. Joe Biden suggests Trump’s being blackmailed by Putin

    Biden sat down Thursday for an interview with MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell, who asked the former vice president why Trump was “so reluctant to take on Vladimir Putin.”

    “Look, you know, I want to give every American, including the president, the benefit of the doubt, but I can’t fathom any reason other than he is concerned of what Putin might say or do, or what information he may or may not have,” Biden said.

  9. Rob Reiner drops hammer on Trump: ‘He’d rather have a military parade than defend’ democracy from Russia

    “The Russians did invade our country, they did try to disrupt our democracy and right now we’re not doing anything,” said Reiner, who has formed the Committee to Investigate Russia with former Bush speechwriter David Frum.

    “The president of the United States has ignored it,” Reiner added, “and he’d rather have a military parade than actually defend us and protect us and make us more secure. So it is very scary, and when you have guys like this speaking out, it is time to sit up and take notice.”

  10. You would have to be out of your mind to go to an election on a platform of giving big business a tax cut. That doesn’t even poll favourably with Liberal voters last I saw. They must have a better pitch than that even if it includes that.

  11. House Democrats Calls For Emergency Hearings After Revelation That Russia Hacked US Voter Rolls

    The Democratic members wrote, “It is our Committee’s responsibility to examine the vulnerabilities and risks facing our election processes and infrastructure in order to protect the right to vote for every American—a right that includes not just equal voting rights and access to the polls, but also confidence in the accuracy and security of our election systems. For these reasons, we urge you to hold immediate hearings on this fundamental issue.”

  12. Can someone paste up the telegraph story. Very hard to access. I think Barnyard will ride this out. The leader of any other political party would not. But boy, he will be very badly wounded.

  13. Punk music fan and reserve bank governor Philip Lowe, comes across pretty well.
    The bank seems focused on the long term,not the media cycle and has forgotten nothing.

    As for influences: The Saints, and from the UK Sex Pistols and The Fall.

  14. I may have been wrong about yesterday’s tele front page being a set-up. Having exposed this story, the tele is going to show WHY it is in the public interest. Bad days for Barney. Soon even Gina won’t want him.

  15. latikambourke: It’s the second apology from the media to the former PM this week. From me for @smh…

    New Liberal party senator Jim Molan has come under fire from the Australian Defence Association for posting photos of himself in uniform on his social media pages.
    The former army general, who had a decorated 40-year military career and was the head of coalition operations in Iraq, has a large banner picture of himself in uniform displayed at the top of his official senator Twitter account, launched on Wednesday. The same picture was uploaded as a cover image to his senator Facebook account, also created this week.
    “It’s a breach of convention and he should know better,” Neil James, the executive director of the ADA, told BuzzFeed News.
    “Given its prominence and the absence of context, the strip-photo across the top of this Twitter account risks implying that the ADF [Australian Defence Force] identifies itself with his position as a Liberal senator,” he said. “The ADA view is that is constitutes a breach of the non-partisanship convention.”

  16. John Martinkus‏

    I’ll just add…I bet Jim Molan never visited the hospital in Fallujah. I did. Then he authorised it’s destruction. I bet he never drove over the bridge they hanged the contractors from. I did. Crossed that bridge the day before they killed the US contractors.

  17. AP: BREAKING: Dow Jones industrials plunge 1,000 points, bringing the index down 10 percent from the record it reached two weeks ago.

  18. I’ve been in Windsor’s position, with people telling me Sophie Mirabella stories, most of which were impossible for me to confirm and thus to do anything with (even if I’d wanted). All you really can do in that situation is hint and see if the media will follow it up.

    Interestingly, the most damaging information came from the Nationals!

    (Labor in Indi was once accused of muck raking about Mirabella. I wrote a media release along the lines of “When the Nationals said X about Mirabella, we refused to use this information….” – but alas, the party wouldn’t let me send it out…)

  19. My feeling that Turnbull would be caught up in a conspiracy has been nagging at me for past month. I thought it may have something to do with NBN or the AWU raid. But what if indeed it is to have given cover to BJoyce and orchestrated the reshuffle to appease him. Hmmmm……….

  20. Guytaur, In sprocket’s summary of the DT story apparently there was a reshuffle to exile Nats who were complaining about Barnaby. The story directly affects the government.

  21. Guytaur

    Well insofar as govt affairs and taxpayer funds are being used to assist in the personal affairs of the deputy prime minister, I would say staff issues are pertinent

  22. Any wonder Darren Chester supported McKenzie for Deputy Nats leader now? Seems they might not have been keen on Canavan for a number of reasons.

  23. So, the first week of parliament’s return saw 2 returned and 1 new member of government, including the deputy PM and a cabinet minister put ‘under a cloud’

    It saw Labor stand up for the rights of the media and the government back down.

    It saw the start of the correction of stock market values, and some poor economic news.

    It saw no legislation of any significance pass the house that matters, no breakthroughs in negotiations with x-benchers, and no new policy announcements.

    Fairfax’s spin on this? “Bill Shorten has peaked – and Malcolm Turnbull has him in his sights”

  24. If Darren Chester (a better minister?) lost his position in order to protect Barnaby, that’s a real tragedy for the government.

  25. Lizzie

    Not so much a tragedy, but quite unethical. Turnbull should set the record straight if this is not correct. But if it is,he and BJoyce should both resign. They are not fit to hold office

  26. Very funny read on pb this morning.

    Still I guess it’s a good distraction from the Looming Batman sadness for Labor.

  27. Victoria

    Given the stuff I have seen on social media McGowan’s staffer #bonkban call may have been her doing what zoomster refers to as laying hints for the media to follow up.

  28. MickKime: SSM claims another heterosexual victim:
    Mr Joyce, 50, confirmed the breakdown of his 24-year marriage to Ms Joyce, the mother of his four children, during the debate over same-sex marriage last year.

  29. Victoria

    ‘Tragedy’ is the wrong word – I’m still half asleep.
    I was thinking – Barnaby’s ill effect on good government is growing every day, affecting too many people.
    An affair by a capable minister is one thing, but Mr Beetroot has an extremely poor record already.
    I’d like to go back and study MT’s face as he told the cover-up about why Chester was demoted.

  30. DameyonBonson: Anthony Mundine has yet to provide any basis for his homophobic remarks that, in Aboriginal culture homosexuality results in “capital punishment or death”.

    It is well documented that homophobia leads to suicide. So well done Anthony and his apologists too.

    Well fucking done.

  31. VE

    Thats a comment piece from Kate McGregor. Hardly a fan of Shorten. The most interesting thing is the supposed friendlyness with Turnbull given she is a supposed Tony Abbott confident.

  32. Re: Catherine McGreggor’s vanity piece in the SMH:

    First third was all ‘look at Moi, look at Moi’ I was right! I called it! Malcolm’s BAAACK!

    Evidence? The shuffling of rwnj votes between LNP, ON and back to the LNP narrowing the 2PP with Labor by a whole point. A whole point I say !!!! No comment on the underlying stability and combined strength of the primary votes of Labor, Greens and ‘others’. Nadda.

    Also Truffles’ commmanding performnace on Q&A when compared with Shorten. Truly decisive.

    The rest of the article was a blather about Shorten’s perceived shortcomings. Sexy Rexy coulda written that.

    Just when you thought that Massola was the pits, someone else at Fairfax comes along and lowers the bar further …

  33. Lizzie

    Agreed. BJoyce. instead of going to a by election, should have done the coalition a favour and resigned. Heck even Feeney knew it was the right thing to do in his case


    Sitting Brunswick MP Jane Garrett won’t change her mind and run again even though the star candidate who was to replace her has abandoned the electorate for neighbouring Batman.

    Ms Kearney’s move has left little-known union organiser Cindy Louise O’Connor as the frontrunner to replace her.

    Ms O’Connor is the only person who has put herself forward so far, following a meeting of Labor’s Socialist Left faction on Saturday night.

    She is currently an occupational heath and safety organiser with the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union.

    A note to members of Labor’s Socialist Left faction, which controls Brunswick preselections, said: “We will now seek a quick preselection process for Brunswick, one which maximises members’ involvement.”

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