BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Poll trend latest: Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull up, One Nation down, two-party picture unchanged.

The only poll this week was a Newspoll that gave the Coalition its best result since last April, but given the pollster’s stability over that time, that isn’t saying all that much. Certainly it hasn’t made much difference to BludgerTrack, on which the Coalition improves only on the primary vote, and that at One Nation’s expense rather than Labor’s. The Coalition is up one on the seat projection in Queensland, but down one in Western Australia. The change is more noticeable on the leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval trend picking up sharply, and confirms his recent uptick on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

617 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. lizzie @ #21 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 7:28 am

    The most “interesting” fact in this article is that Barnaby and friend are both smokers.

    Thanks Lizzie. That was the most informative article I have seen yet (though Gay Alcorn’s article in the Grauniad, cited by BK, also speaks to me). Windsor is also suggesting that the public humiliation of the Beetrooter is to distract from something much uglier behind it – almost certainly to do with water, gas and very large amounts of money.
    More Goldstone than Wake in Fright .

  2. Victoria

    Just on the hypocrisy of Family values Joyce has got attention from the Washington Post. In fact McGowan’s staff proposal gets approving mention from the Washington Post.

    They directly refer to the US Congress staffing ban.

    Interesting contrast in media coverage.

  3. The longer the Murdoch tabloids and the rest of the media go on about Barnaby’s indiscretions and worse, the worse it gets for the government as a whole, not just the Nationals.

    They really can’t afford another hit to their voter support of that magnitude and even the most stupid of them will start to realise that is the case.

    Barnaby will have to be got rid of.

  4. ajm – I’m coming around to the view that Barnaby may well be damaged goods, EVEN in the National Party. I very much doubt though that he will go quietly, which is very bad news for Malcolm.

  5. I see the Murdoch sleaze bags are doing what they do best.
    Inter alia this means that any relationship with any politician, already a fraught business, is now infinitely more risky. You can now can now confidently expect to find yourself in the eye of a public storm if the cards do not fall the right way.

  6. g
    I can accuse anyone of anything as long as William does not end up in court for defamation. So do stop trying to censor me.

  7. BREAKING: Government under fire after it was discovered Barnaby Joyce’s new girlfriend was given a six-figure, taxp……

  8. Shorter Catherine McGregor: “I was right about Turnbull every time, except I was wrong, and all my critics were dickheads, and still are. Having said that, I am definitely right again.”

    Or something.

    She makes the mistake of taking one poll (a poll taken in holiday mode) and then extrapolating it to a glorious future. She is correct when she notes that Turnbull has a clever mind, but a political tin ear. Then she ignores her own accurate analysis by predicting that Malcolm’s mistakes are all behind him – no more stuff-ups – based on a single data point.

    McGregor compounds this convoluted hokum by accusing *others* of wishful thinking!

    Is this what masquerades as sober political analysis over at Fairfax nowadays? An isolated poll, some breathless waffle about a forgotten QandA appearance, an easy spray at Sky News, a couple of snarky character assessments regarding her critics, all garnished with girlish gushing about Turnbull’s “brilliance”?

    Basically, Malcolm’s Renaissance is an old-fashioned media bootstrap. Towards the end of last year it was decided in his press office that victory would be declared. The word went out that the SSM survey was the Turning Point. Throw in some malarkey about Labor MPs under a citizenship cloud. Beat up a totally predictable New England win for Barnaby Joyce (aided by the willing complicity of a po-faced press in burying his shameless adultery on the basis that they “respected” the “privacy” of a public politician who made sport of invading the privacy of others). Then keep serving up the same gruel to a starving CPG until they stop throwing up at the very thought of swallowing it, and may even pretend to like it.

    Suddenly, out of not very much at all, the Turnbull rebirth rabbit has been produced again from a very old hat.

    Once you know how, it’s easy Catherine.

  9. Looks like the TGA has passed its use by date:
    It seems any company that deems its products ‘scientifically proven’ can now get TGA approval.
    A totally new approach is required if we are to have a gatekeeper for the drugs that are considered reputable & safe, otherwise there is no point in a TGA at all. Perhaps ‘traditional medicines’ should have a totally different accreditation- not a TGA one.

  10. bw

    Fair enough.

    However with Joyce remember Windsor’s tweets and Bolts response.

    One of them has to be correct and the other will have to resign from politics.

    I think that still holds true.

    We now have the Newscorp smearing their own staff confirming affair with pregnancy photo.

    Just like the Steel Dossier what we have part of the Windsor tweets confirmed.

    Conclude from that what you will.

    Note the smear I have been accusing Joyce of is confirmation of his hypocrisy on family values.

    He tried to prevent others from having marriage and having the same right to fail at trying to do that institution. That makes him a hypocrite big time.

    He wants to be left alone he should have left other people alone.

  11. Pretty pathetic apology to Kevin Rudd on AM this morning.

    Don’t know if he approved it or not, but he shouldn’t be satisfied with the mealy mouthed effort.

  12. The terms of the apology will have been agreed upon.

    Rudd will want to keep the ABC on side for future opportunities to talk about things.

    It will be sorted.

  13. Hi folks! Back in the land of the living. The Stranglers were awesome. I was embarrassing. I danced like the punk of old. Not the best when all your bits jiggle and wiggle now. 😳

    But who cares? 🙂

  14. The only thing missing from the ABC’s apology for misleading was the only thing that mattered. The whole truth.

    “the full list of risks referred to in the leaked files and our reporting on it were:
    * Financial risk to the Commonwealth.
    * etc
    * etc”

  15. C@tmomma says: Friday, February 9, 2018 at 9:27 am

    phoenixRED @ #68 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 9:16 am

    BK found it! Of course. He’s the best


    Thanks C@tmomma – oops must have missed it – still recovering from celebrating my younger son’s first – a boy 🙂

    Agreed, BK is # 1 in every sense of his valuable contributions !!!!!

  16. Turnbull is now claiming that Barnaby’s mistress being given a job in Canavan’s office is a “private matter”. Most people would consider this a very public matter and if Turnbull is implicated in the scandal…

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says he and wife Lucy are acutely aware of the hurt Barnaby Joyce’s marriage breakdown has caused his estranged wife and daughters.

    Mr Turnbull would not be drawn on reports the deputy prime minister’s new partner and former staffer was offered a posting in a colleague’s office last year, saying he did not want to publicly discuss private matters.

    “It is a tough and distressing episode and I am very conscious – Lucy and I are very conscious – of the hurt occasioned to Natalie and their daughters in particular,” he told reporters in Canberra on Friday.
    “So that’s why I don’t want to add or contribute to the discussion about it.”

    Vikki Campion was reportedly assigned a digital and social media position in the office of Nationals MP Matt Canavan and was not replaced in the months after she left.

  17. phoenixRED @ #78 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 9:33 am

    C@tmomma says: Friday, February 9, 2018 at 9:27 am

    phoenixRED @ #68 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 9:16 am

    BK found it! Of course. He’s the best


    Thanks C@tmomma – oops must have missed it – still recovering from celebrating my younger son’s first – a boy 🙂

    Agreed, BK is # 1 in every sense of his valuable contributions !!!!!

    Not a problem, phoenixRED! It’s worth a repeat! 😀

  18. C@tmomma says: Friday, February 9, 2018 at 9:36 am

    Not a problem, phoenixRED! It’s worth a repeat!


    Every day – another Trump secret gets exposed !!!

  19. Boolean @ 9:16AM A totally new approach is required if we are to have a gatekeeper for the drugs that are considered reputable & safe, otherwise there is no point in a TGA at all. Perhaps ‘traditional medicines’ should have a totally different accreditation- not a TGA one.

    Fully agree. Alternative medicines (a.k.a. quack remdies) should be rated as foods, or perhaps have a separate category. Maybe they shouldn’t be stocked in pharmacies.

  20. Of course Malcolm Talkbull (thanks Vikki’s dad!), doesn’t want to discuss a scandal! But despite all the lawerly insertion of soft images, of women and emotions, into that answer, it’s not about private personal matters, it’s about abuse of the taxpayers of Australia and their taxpayer funds.

    Labor should launch an inquiry into the whole messy affair.

    No wonder Barnaby the Beetrooter wanted Matt Canavan as his Deputy. The guy is prepared to be complicit in coverups.

  21. Not to mention the fact that the Coalition had no such reservations about ‘private matters’, when they went for Tony Bourke’s jugular over his relationship with Skye Laris.

  22. Steve777

    The question of alt medicines is a complicated one, as doctors and vets prescribe some as supplements. They can’t all be classed as quackery and banished.

    At least chemists don’t sell rhino horn and eye of newt – yet.

  23. The biggest loser in this saga, apart from the Murray Darling Basin, APVMA, the environment, common sense and decency, a very small part of Gina Rinehart’s bank account, the coal mining, gas, and water spivs, the defrauded voters of Armidale, and probably Bonking Beetroots bank account (once someone looks into it), will be Baby Beetroot.

  24. political_alert: Opposition Leader @billshortenmp is in Gladstone and will join Senator @MurrayWatt and Senator @AnthonyChisholm to visit the Port of Gladstone, 11am #auspol

  25. lizzie

    At least chemists don’t sell rhino horn and eye of newt – yet.

    Don’t discount eye of newt. Just because you’ve never tried it. You should keep an open mind.

  26. C

    So what? People change as they go through life.

    Yes, so then the same sentiment needs to be applied to Peter Whish-Wilson who has repeatedly been criticised by some here because of his work experience prior to entering parliament as a Greens senator.

  27. One of the most interesting posts on Barnaby was by Mari, IIRC.

    It was a link to a twitter post by a woman looking for a media contact to spill the beans on Barnaby.

    The name on the account suggests that this person was a former staffer for Ian Sinclair.

    Do I smell blood? 🙂


    But Bartlett has told party members, through a letter obtained by Guardian Australia, he has withdrawn as a Senate candidate, asking instead for their support in standing for the seat of Brisbane, now held by the LNP MP Trevor Evans.

    “It is the House of Representatives seat we have the strongest chance in, as well as being the seat I have lived in for a long time,” he said in the letter.

    Bartlett said he was “not taking it for granted” that he would win pre-selection for the seat of Brisbane, and would stay on as senator until the next election to minimise disruption.

    Kirsten Lovejoy stood for the Greens in Brisbane in 2016, winning almost 20% of the vote.

    The Greens have seen a surge in support in Queensland, winning a council seat in Brisbane, installing their first MP in the state parliament, and coming close to toppling the popular Labor MP and deputy premier, Jackie Trad.

  29. Actually, the Coalition is turning into quite a salad. We’ve got a potato, a beetroot, and with Turnbull, a wet lettuce. Unfortunately, with Sharkie ensconced, we are unlikely to get the mayo.

  30. I’m pretty sure that this is all going pear shaped at a rapid rate for Beetroot Snr. So by the time baby Beetroot has any actual memories, it will be of his parents walking him along the beach at Mooloolaba in their (early) blissful retirement into the obscurity they truly deserve …

  31. Mal is just so eager to whitewash Barnaby, isn’t he.

    Ewart Dave ‏ @davidbewart · 44m44 minutes ago

    “Sources say Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has accepted assurances from Mr Joyce that it is genuine and enduring love.”

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