BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Poll trend latest: Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull up, One Nation down, two-party picture unchanged.

The only poll this week was a Newspoll that gave the Coalition its best result since last April, but given the pollster’s stability over that time, that isn’t saying all that much. Certainly it hasn’t made much difference to BludgerTrack, on which the Coalition improves only on the primary vote, and that at One Nation’s expense rather than Labor’s. The Coalition is up one on the seat projection in Queensland, but down one in Western Australia. The change is more noticeable on the leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval trend picking up sharply, and confirms his recent uptick on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

617 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 6 of 13
1 5 6 7 13
  1. ‘“If my thought dreams could be seen, they’d probably put my head in a guillotine.”’

    But this is actually the point – all human beings have urges/thoughts which, if acted upon, would make society unworkable. It is the mark of a civilised human being that these urges/thoughts are controlled.

    And yes, there are movements in society which are carried too far by enthusiastic but misguided individuals, whether it be PC, or gay rights or feminism or animal cruelty or (on the other side of politics) anti-immigration, patriotism, respect for the armed forces, or whatever. There’s also usually a period of ‘grey time’, when what’s appropriate or not is sorted out. None of these are reasons for the movement not to happen, and they must happen for society to keep progressing. (As human beings are inherently flawed, we’ll never reach Nirvana, so there will always be pressure for us to change).

    We rightly examine our own consciences and actions in the light of these movements, and often discover that (alas) we haven’t measured up.

    And some people suffer in the process – but then, there’s usually an ancient wrong which is being addressed, and it’s very rare for the some to suffer as much as the many have. In a perfect world, yes, we’d be able to redress past wrongs without this happening, but it’s probably acceptable damage if it prevents others suffering in the future.

  2. meher baba
    The Guardian had an article this week questioning whether Caravaggio’s art should be removed from public museums because he killed someone (evidently castrated them with a sword and they bled out).

  3. A few comments on the ABC public meeting.

    Emma Alberici‏Verified account @albericie · 3h3 hours ago
    The ABC receives $1billion from taxpayers. In real terms, that’s 28% less than the organisation received in 1986 #ABCYours

    Le voyageur‏ @LeVoyageurOz · 3h3 hours ago
    #abcapm
    52 minutes of self congratulation.
    20 minutes of attempting to explain themselves to the public.

    jak‏ @JulietteKelly9 · 1h1 hour ago
    Replying to @LeVoyageurOz @MicheleMcKenzee
    Yep that’s what it was about – they believe we all want to access abc programs via the internet; less overseas (eg BBC) content; insufficient $$$. No opportunity for questions that weren’t presubmitted. Came away very disappointed but not surprised.

  4. Lizzie

    Oops so the megaphone incident wasn’t daughter. The article does not actually say it didn’t happen at all. Just that it wasn’t his daughter.

    Interesting.


  5. The Guardian had an article this week questioning whether Caravaggio’s art should be removed from public museums because he killed someone (evidently castrated them with a sword and they bled out).

    This is utter madness. Noone is going to emulate these actions in an attempt to acquire his level of skill.

    The loss to Caravaggio of taking them down – nil.

    The loss to the rest of us… huge.

    On the other hand, the benefit to the dark side in having us even have this stupid argument while they continue to hoard the wealth we create is massive.

  6. CTar1 says: Friday, February 9, 2018 at 2:26 pm

    phRD

    Congratulations from me also.

    ********************************************

    Thanks CTar1 …… both my sons were adopted by us when very young – so its especially nice to see them have a secure family for their own children … ( apologies for personal stuff )

  7. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/09/western-australia-and-nsw-break-ranks-to-agree-on-hospital-deal

    New South Wales and Western Australia are understood to have agreed to the federal government’s hospital funding deal, breaking ranks with Labor state governments and health groups.

    A source within the meeting said the WA and NSW Liberal governments had agreed to the commonwealth’s hospital funding terms. The two states told other governments of their intentions before the meeting.

    A second source confirmed that WA and NSW had disclosed their intentions before Friday’s meeting in Canberra.

  8. It’s a growing tendency of the contemporary “identity”-obsessed left to want to silence people who they consider “unsafe”.

    This is a human thing, not a left thing, or haven’t you noticed how our current right wing government handles critics?

  9. ‘kakuru says:
    Friday, February 9, 2018 at 12:11 pm

    Boerwar
    “There are literally thousands of such appointments to ministerial and MPs and Senators jobs, board positions, advisory positions, etc, etc, etc without the slightest bit of due process being required.”

    Sophie Mirabella would know about that.’

    So would every Greens senators and MPs staffer. They get a set bucket of money for staffing depending on roles (head of committee, etc etc) and an electoral allowance, and they can sort out the rest themselves, no questions asked.

    I assume that all the lemmings who have joined the let’s crucify Joyce Noddy Squad will welcome the same happening to Labor and Greens’ MPs. Only they had better get ready for a massive increase in the triviliazation of the ‘charges’, read ‘insinuations’, read ‘it is alleged’.

    The problem here is that Joyce’s major destruction of good public policy, governance standards and his plundering of the public purse to pork his electorate are being ignored while the baying mob sweats the small stuff.

    It is exactly analagous to the Greens leading the nation on a Wild Goose Chase by way of a Massive National Campaign to change a date while genuine Indigenous priorities are ignored.

    AKA THE PRURIENT UNICORN

  10. The Noddy Squad is going vroom vroom.

    Why not all become Iconclasts?

    Why not take down anything that represents humans or gods?

  11. meher baba:

    I don’t know how you can reconcile “a reasonable level of free speech” with the idea that McLaughlin’s accusers – or at least those who have put their name to them – shouldn’t also be accorded their right to speak about the harm that has been done to them.

  12. Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    FUN FACT: Fox New’s latest conspiracy theory lasted almost 45 minutes.

    Marco Rubio‏Verified account @marcorubio

    Sen.Warner fully disclosed this to the committee four months ago.Has had zero impact on our work.

    Democratic Sen. Mark Warner texted with Russian oligarch lobbyist in effort to contact dossier author Christopher Steele

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/02/08/democratic-sen-mark-warner-texted-with-russian-oligarch-lobbyist-in-effort-to-contact-dossier-author-christopher-steele.html

  13. Where are we at with Newspolls? Number 26? All negative. That would make number 30 due in 2 months or so, depending on the regularity of the cycle.The Smellygraph (Rupert’s rag) has started coming out about the Beetrooter – is there an imminent leadershit challenge coming for Brian Trumble? Let’s see how Rupert’s bitches, Hadley, Jones and Smith et. al. go in the next few days…

    Tom.

  14. PhR

    The gish gallop is an oft-used technique. I first noted it in relation to global warming deniers.

    It simply does not matter whether what was said yesterday is false. It is what is said today that matters.

    One of the patterns is simply to repeat what was said yesterday regardless of whether it has been thoroughly debunked.

    If you assume that Fox News is about rational discourse and the truth and the facts, you are making a false assumption.

  15. Campion was still in a relationship with her husband at the time of ‘working’ with Beetroot. Who was getting what and when, when the baby was found to be in the oven?

  16. Victoria

    WA is indeed a Labor state, having smashed the Tories last year. But you knew that.

    WA also is desperately trying to squeeze some more GST money out of Canberra to repair the wreckage left behind by the Tories.

    Maybe agreeing on hospital funding is a tactical move on the basis that having one fight with Turnbull at a time gives you some chance.

    edit: and this story lends weight to that theory.

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-politics/wa-government-looks-set-to-sign-commonwealths-hospital-funding-deal-ng-b88739740z

  17. Boerwar says: Friday, February 9, 2018 at 2:45 pm

    PhR

    The gish gallop is an oft-used technique. I first noted it in relation to global warming deniers.

    It simply does not matter whether what was said yesterday is false. It is what is said today that matters.

    One of the patterns is simply to repeat what was said yesterday regardless of whether it has been thoroughly debunked.

    If you assume that Fox News is about rational discourse and the truth and the facts, you are making a false assumption.

    *********************************************************

    Understood Boerwar – it is straight out of the Goebbels textbook :

    “If you repeat a lie often enough, it becomes the truth. If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. If you repeat a lie long enough, it becomes truth. If you repeat a lie many times, people are bound to start believing it.”

  18. BW,

    I was in a meeting with a DD of a large and important C’wealth Dept yesterday, during which he said wtte: “Look at how the RW think-tanks do it; that’s how you need to get your message to bureaucrats, business leaders and journos. Short, easily digestable, to the point, and don’t worry about what the other side has to say. It needs to be able to be read between the airport and the office.”

    The right know better how to market their product than the left. Ironically, too many on the left try to be right rather than effective.

    Why the fuck are we even talking about Caravaggio’s crimes again? Some are like bulls to a red rag.

  19. Dio: “meher baba
    The Guardian had an article this week questioning whether Caravaggio’s art should be removed from public museums because he killed someone (evidently castrated them with a sword and they bled out).”

    I’m a big time Caravaggio fan, and this extremely grisly version of the murder is based on some rather creative readings of the sources. The traditional version of what happened is that he killed someone in a fight.

    Ironically, the historians who have rather beaten up the castration story are also clearly Caravaggio fans, and have no doubt been motivated by wanting to make his life story even more interesting. I’m sure they will be horrified to see that what they have written is now being used as a possible justification for suppressing his works!!

  20. The state and territory leaders look to have lost any confidence in Turnbull.

    NSW and WA just signing up to this health funding agreement on the basis that at least they get something out of it that has an actual ‘number’ associated with it rather than a conmans ‘formula’.

  21. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-09/nauru-refugee-to-be-transferred-to-australia-over-suicide-risk/9416276

    The Commonwealth has been ordered to bring a young girl from the Nauru detention centre to Australia for urgent psychiatric treatment, with warnings she could take her own life without intervention.

    The Federal Court has found the refugee, whose exact age has been withheld, arrived on Christmas Island with her family in 2013 while trying to travel to Australia by boat.

    She has been on Nauru ever since, and has already tried to take her own life.

  22. caf: “I don’t know how you can reconcile “a reasonable level of free speech” with the idea that McLaughlin’s accusers – or at least those who have put their name to them – shouldn’t also be accorded their right to speak about the harm that has been done to them.”

    There is no such thing as a “right” to publicly accuse someone of a crime prior to going to the police about it, nor of publicly accusing someone of workplace harassment that you have not reported to your/their employer.

    I note that McLachlan has been cleared of all allegations relating to the detective show in which he stars.

    There are such things as groundless accusations made vindictively and also cases in which mentally ill people imagine themselves having had sexual encounters which haven’t occurred: sometimes with people that they haven’t even met.

    Innocent until proven guilty seems to me to be a pretty good standard to go by. I have some sympathy with (but am nervous about) suggestions that, at least in these sorts of cases, “beyond reasonable doubt” is too high a standard for the accuser to meet, and also that the withholding from juries/investigators of past, proven instances of similar behaviour is unfair to the accuser.

    But, if we move away from innocent until proven guilty, we are taking ourselves down to the level of the Salem witch trials, the Stasi and the Ku Klux Klan.

  23. I’m also a huge Caravaggio fan. Are we going to ban about 50% of rock music as many male rock stars exploit their status? Einstein was a bit of a douchebag. Do we chuck relativity?

    Even more of a concern, should I change my name from Diogenes? He did a few things that would be considered grossly indecent today.

  24. Whisper: “Campion was still in a relationship with her husband at the time of ‘working’ with Beetroot. Who was getting what and when, when the baby was found to be in the oven?”

    Please let me know if you find out, because I’m sure it will have a huge influence on how I vote in the next election.

  25. This does not surprise me at all

    Dr. Dena Grayson
    @DrDenaGrayson
    Now, it appears that Julian Assange teamed up with Sean Hannity to LEAK private texts from a sitting Senator⁉️

    Sean Hannity, you better CALL YOUR LAWYER‼️

    /end
    1:08 PM · Feb 9, 2018

  26. Diogenes: “Even more of a concern, should I change my name from Diogenes? He did a few things that would be considered grossly indecent today.”

    All I can say is that I am glad that I named my online manifestation after Meher Baba (a benign figure) rather than Sai Baba (Satya Sai Baba, that is. The original Sai Baba, of whom Satya Sai Baba claimed to be a reincarnation, lived a blameless life, as far as I know.)

    https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/cover-story/story/20001204-allegations-of-sexual-molestation-continue-to-dog-sai-baba-778528-2000-12-04

  27. Pegasus @ #281 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 3:10 pm

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-09/nauru-refugee-to-be-transferred-to-australia-over-suicide-risk/9416276

    The Commonwealth has been ordered to bring a young girl from the Nauru detention centre to Australia for urgent psychiatric treatment, with warnings she could take her own life without intervention.

    The Federal Court has found the refugee, whose exact age has been withheld, arrived on Christmas Island with her family in 2013 while trying to travel to Australia by boat.

    She has been on Nauru ever since, and has already tried to take her own life.

    How utterly tragic this is.

    This poor young girl having suffered for years under this barbaric Lib-Lab policy from psychological torture.

    How can anyone support parliamentarians responsible for this ??

  28. A lot of strawmen or women flying around from the usual and not so usual suspects.

    Typical conservative discussion tactic – mention something completely outlandish, extreme or ridiculous that your opponents have supposedly advocated as a diversion and watch the diversion work.

  29. Diogenes says: Friday, February 9, 2018 at 3:13 pm

    Even more of a concern, should I change my name from Diogenes? He did a few things that would be considered grossly indecent today.

    ****************************************************************

    Dio – the name was unknown to me before your comment so I had to look up what naughty things your name sake did – I am sure you have NEVER replicated his deeds :

    Diogenes is said to have eaten in the marketplace, urinated on some people who insulted him,defecated in the theatre,and masturbated in public.

    Maybe – a name more significant, less controversial in your field of medicine ??? – Fleming, Salk etc etc

  30. The Gish Gallop is subtly different from repetition. The idea is to overwhelm the opponent with a plethora of what might be called ‘micro facts’ – some of which might be disputed, some of which might have been refuted many times over. It’s a favourite of Creationists and Climate Deniers.

  31. Given the barbaric treatment of asylum seekers – the disgusting neglect of our first peoples – where is our social conscience regarding who we elect ??

  32. The thing with Gish Gallop is to make the user of the technique seem highly knowledgeable while making the opponent look ignorant and foolish. To refute their ‘micro facts’ is likely to take time and research. Most opponents won’t have these arguments at their fingertips.

  33. Oh, so MT did a presser?

    Denise Shrivell‏ @deniseshrivell · 15m15 minutes ago

    Turnbull now trying to flick question away saying it’s a personal matter though journalist insisting it’s to do with tax payer money. Now Turnbull trying to finish press conference – as he always does when he gets q’s he doesn’t like. #auspol #coag

  34. If you repeat a lie long enough, loud enough and often enough, you may be a Liberal minister quoting policy.

    On Barnaby and his private affairs, whether both were married should not be of public interest. If she was on staff when it started and still has a taxpayer funded job is of relevance. There could be a conflict of interest, and a power imbalance.

  35. Mari @ #232 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 1:27 pm

    Barney in Saigon
    https://mobile.twitter.com/YvonnBest?s=17

    That tweet you mentioned has mysteriously disappeared from her account, a lot of people asking why.
    Was she given an offer too good to refuse, by one the journos asking for info ?

    Did she have pressure applied ?

    She is genuine person think also worked for Warren Truss

    Mari: while following Ms Best down the intertube rabbit hole I came across this interesting piece of political archeology: Stephen Mayne’s list of where 220 ex-Howard staffers are now (now being 2004). Some interesting names on the list.

  36. lizzie @ #294 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 3:29 pm

    Oh, so MT did a presser?

    Denise Shrivell‏ @deniseshrivell · 15m15 minutes ago

    Turnbull now trying to flick question away saying it’s a personal matter though journalist insisting it’s to do with tax payer money. Now Turnbull trying to finish press conference – as he always does when he gets q’s he doesn’t like. #auspol #coag

    Did anyone ask him about the poor asylum seeker girl in need of psychiatric help thanks to the Lib-Lab asylum seeker policy ??

  37. i do not agree with this:
    “Malcolm Turnbull says the producers of TV satire Utopia couldn’t have come up with something less believable than the Cabinet Files leak.”

    I think the secret file cabinet for sale is exactly the sort of script they could write for Utopia, and it would be highly believable. In both cases they are writing about incompetence.

  38. Is Barnaby and his mistress of more interest to voters than the barbaric treatment of asylum seekers or the neglect of our first peoples ??

Comments Page 6 of 13
1 5 6 7 13

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *