BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Poll trend latest: Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull up, One Nation down, two-party picture unchanged.

The only poll this week was a Newspoll that gave the Coalition its best result since last April, but given the pollster’s stability over that time, that isn’t saying all that much. Certainly it hasn’t made much difference to BludgerTrack, on which the Coalition improves only on the primary vote, and that at One Nation’s expense rather than Labor’s. The Coalition is up one on the seat projection in Queensland, but down one in Western Australia. The change is more noticeable on the leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval trend picking up sharply, and confirms his recent uptick on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

617 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. Steve777 @ #293 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 3:28 pm

    The thing with Gish Gallop is to make the user of the technique seem highly knowledgeable while making the opponent look ignorant and foolish. To refute their ‘micro facts’ is likely to take time and research. Most opponents won’t have these arguments at their fingertips.

    It is also effective because even if you do dispute a fact that is obviously wrong, doing so takes time and makes you look like a nit-picking pedant who is overwhelmed by the weight of the other evidence, which you have not even addressed (yet!)

    We see this technique used here on PB a lot, and on multiple subjects – reams of misinformation gets posted, all of which takes time, effort and knowledge to dispute, by which time more reams of misinformation has been posted.

  2. Rex
    “Is Barnaby and his mistress of more interest to voters than the barbaric treatment of asylum seekers or the neglect of our first peoples ??”

    I see that as a non sequiter. We can be dissappointed in all three.

  3. Zoomster

    Can you please expalin to me why someone on Trump’ s team who took aide from someone from Russia is guiltier than someone from Clinton’s team who took aid from someone from UK.

    Now the first is as yet unproven – all allegations whereas the second is confirmed in FISA submissions.

    Now what say you?

  4. Socrates @ #302 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 3:39 pm

    Rex
    “Is Barnaby and his mistress of more interest to voters than the barbaric treatment of asylum seekers or the neglect of our first peoples ??”

    I see that as a non sequiter. We can be dissappointed in all three.

    But are we ? …and to what degree ?

    I can’t think of a more shocking close-to-home trigger to shake one’s belief in what Liberal and Labor have done than the circumstances of that poor young girl.

  5. There is no such thing as a “right” to publicly accuse someone of a crime prior to going to the police about it, nor of publicly accusing someone of workplace harassment that you have not reported to your/their employer.

    Why on earth not? If you punch me in the nose you can be goddamn sure that I will tell people about it. I absolutely reject the idea that I should not be able to make true statements about events that are known to me. Malicious individuals making false statements is something that should be punished afterwards, not prevented through prior restraint on everyone else.

    Requiring proof beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law is absolutely the necessary standard when we are talking about using the power of the state to impose punishment. It isn’t when we are simply warning each other about the badly behaving individuals within the group.

    I feel it is a kind of authoritarianism – this idea that I cannot be allowed to draw my own conclusions about Mr McLaughlin based on the comments of others who have known him, I must only think of him what the courts have decided I may think.

  6. Obviously Turnbull and (and his mouthpiece Pyne) are all piss and wind…

    Labor has called on the government to refer Susan Lamb to the High Court over dual citizenship concerns or shut up, with frontbencher Richard Marles declaring the parliament was “at the point where it’s time to piss or get off the pot”.

    The government is refusing to use its numbers to test Ms Lamb’s eligibility in court despite threatening for weeks it would do so if Bill Shorten did not.

    Leader of the House Christopher Pyne again declined to say today if the government would refer Ms Lamb, who gained dual citizenship by descent through her late father and has not completed her renunciation.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/high-court-clears-martin-colbeck-for-senate-spots/news-story/37a5403745927c65451507201ee5a2cd

  7. Do we do ourselves justice as citizens to simply ignore asylum seeker policy/indigenous policy and pretend we can’t do anything about it ??

  8. Meyer Baba:

    “Innocent until proven guilty seems to me to be a pretty good standard to go by. I have some sympathy with (but am nervous about) suggestions that, at least in these sorts of cases, “beyond reasonable doubt” is too high a standard for the accuser to meet, and also that the withholding from juries/investigators of past, proven instances of similar behaviour is unfair to the accuser.

    But, if we move away from innocent until proven guilty, we are taking ourselves down to the level of the Salem witch trials, the Stasi and the Ku Klux Klan.”

    Times have changed, even since 2011 when I started prosecuting sexual assault trials in NSW. Even when it comes down to ‘oath vs oath’ I’m tracking at about a 70% conviction rate. These days prior conduct is admissible if it is ‘highly probative’ of either a tendency to act in a certain way or possess a relevant state of mind or to demonstrate the improbability of two or more separate similar events happening coincidentally.

    Last year the High Court put the stick about and brought Victoria into line with NSW (the Victorian CCA had been doing their ‘best’ to water down the tendency/coincidence evidence provisions of the uniform evidence act) in the case of Hughes. Reading between the lines i think it no coincidence that Cardinal Pell was charged by Victorian police AFTER Hughes was handed down by the HC.

    So, there is hope. With sensible reforms the system can cope. No need to abolish either the presumption of innocence or the standard of proof. Further, in my experience both juries and judges siting alone can come to the ‘right’ decision. I think the proposed reforms arising out of the Royal Commission will assist as well.

  9. So, DTT is still supporting Mr Baldy, McLiar, McStupid, McIdiot Trump. No surprises there.

    Moving on . . .

    Ah, the never-ending saga of rootworks in the workplace. Seems like Mrs Baldy, McLiar, McStupid, McIdiot Joyce is a bit upset that Mr Baldy, McLiar, McStupid, McIdiot Joyce pulled a swifty on her – after 24 years of wishin and hopin and plannin and dreamin he’d change.

    She’s well rid of the Lying McHayseed.

    Who says love is forever, ‘cept Cat McKiller ShortyPantsWhereAreYouMother Malcom McTalkbull, Just ask Lucy McBendOverBackwardsStillCrackingTheWhip Mrs Lucy With Diamonds McTalkbull.

    As for the sexual assault apologists, who worry that films may no longer be seen because of the tawdry behaviour of the directors, get yourself a genuine sexual assault (against your good self, not as the perp), and see how you feel. And ask yourself, what punishment would you like to impose?

  10. Rex Douglas: “Did anyone ask him about the poor asylum seeker girl in need of psychiatric help thanks to the Lib-Lab asylum seeker policy ??”

    Did anyone ask the Greens about all the people who died at Christmas Island in 2010?

  11. Our great LNP government will win the seats of Batman Braddon Longman Fremantle from ALP and the seat of Mayo from the NXT team and will never be in opposition till the ALP sack shorten and replace him with Albo

  12. phoenix
    Perhaps Florey, given he was from SA.
    Salk married Pablo Picasso’s mistress so he might not be the safest choice.

  13. Rex Douglas: “The best thing I and others can do is not to vote for the enablers of these policies.”

    Yes, vote instead for those who would like the boats and drownings to start up again.

  14. meher baba @ #311 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 3:52 pm

    Rex Douglas: “Did anyone ask him about the poor asylum seeker girl in need of psychiatric help thanks to the Lib-Lab asylum seeker policy ??”

    Did anyone ask the Greens about all the people who died at Christmas Island in 2010?

    What and whose policies exactly drives these people to take desperate and dangerous voyages on leaky boats ?

  15. I think Turnbull might be pinned on the Barnaby affair if it was shown that the reshuffle, and the demotions of National ministers was related to them asking Barnaby for a ‘please explain’.

    Also remember the CPG articles welcoming Barnaby back to parliament after the by election because in the meantime, Nationals were wandering and going off reservation.

  16. kezza2: “As for the sexual assault apologists, who worry that films may no longer be seen because of the tawdry behaviour of the directors, get yourself a genuine sexual assault (against your good self, not as the perp), and see how you feel. And ask yourself, what punishment would you like to impose?”

    I’m happy to see any sort of punishment applied to those who commit sexual assaults. I’m certainly not wanting to be an apologist for them. But I reckon that, give the authorities a taste – for whatever reason, even the best intentions – to start suppressing writing, paintings, music, etc. and it will just snowball and snowball and we’ll be back in the bad old days when you couldn’t read things like James Joyce’s Ulysses and Robert Graves’ translation of Suetonius. Or, most comically of all, a book called “Fun in Bed” which was banned on the basis of its title, and turned out to be activities to keep sick children amused!

  17. caf
    In addition, if people want to make legal arguments a lot of these allegations are civil matters so it’s just the balance of probabilities whether they did it or not.

  18. How can anyone with any credibility identify the neglect of our first peoples – then continue to vote for the enablers of said neglect ?

  19. Google summary of paywalled Oz article. Why don’t the LNP want a by-election?

    We don’t want by-election for Susan Lamb seat, LNP admits

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/…/we-dont-want-byelection…lamb-seat-lnp…/1a8794c…
    16 hours ago – Liberal National Party frontbencher and key Coalition strategist James McGrath has conceded they do not want a by-election in Susan Lamb’s marginal seat of Longman, as the Turnbull government refuses to use its numbers to refer the Labor MP to the High Court.

  20. Diogenes says: Friday, February 9, 2018 at 3:55 pm
    phoenix
    Perhaps Florey, given he was from SA.
    Salk married Pablo Picasso’s mistress so he might not be the safest choice.

    *****************************************************

    Dio – I don’t know the background or the ‘misdemeanours’ of these well known Australian medicos – so will just toss in a few names – Weary Dunlop, Fred Hollows, William Mc Bride, Victor Chang, Howard Florey ……. I am sure you would honour any of those with your own skills and expertise …..

  21. Rex Douglas: “What and whose policies exactly drives these people to take desperate and dangerous voyages on leaky boats ?”

    People who propose and implement policies which mean that those people can get permanent residence in Australia if they make it here.

    You have to remember that the “desperate and dangerous” voyage on a boat is preceded by a comfortable airline flight: sometimes even in business class. We aren’t talking here about people crossing the border from North Korea at risk of being shot dead by snipers.

    But I’ve argued about this subject with lots of people over the years and I’ve found that there is a strongly-held view by many people that, by definition, getting on a boat to Australia proves in itself that you are a desperate refugee seeking asylum, and that the needs of these people for asylum are self-evidently so great that it doesn’t matter that, by allowing them to seek permanent residence here, you are encouraging more and more of them to come, with the inevitable result that some of them will drown on the way.

    I have never succeeded in persuading anyone who holds that view to think otherwise, so I’ve given up. And it doesn’t matter because, after their experiences of the 2007-10 period, nobody sensible in the ALP will ever dare to wish to ease off on the current mix of policies that have stopped the boats. And, if the people within the ALP who are not sensible on this subject ever get the upper hand, then the ALP is doomed to be returned to/remain in opposition until they wake up to themselves again.

    So the boats are likely to remain stopped for a long time to come.

  22. meher baba @ #325 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 4:08 pm

    Rex Douglas: “What and whose policies exactly drives these people to take desperate and dangerous voyages on leaky boats ?”

    People who propose and implement policies which mean that those people can get permanent residence in Australia if they make it here.

    You have to remember that the “desperate and dangerous” voyage on a boat is preceded by a comfortable airline flight: sometimes even in business class. We aren’t talking here about people crossing the border from North Korea at risk of being shot dead by snipers.

    But I’ve argued about this subject with lots of people over the years and I’ve found that there is a strongly-held view by many people that, by definition, getting on a boat to Australia proves in itself that you are a desperate refugee seeking asylum, and that the needs of these people for asylum are self-evidently so great that it doesn’t matter that, by allowing them to seek permanent residence here, you are encouraging more and more of them to come, with the inevitable result that some of them will drown on the way.

    I have never succeeded in persuading anyone who holds that view to think otherwise, so I’ve given up. And it doesn’t matter because, after their experiences of the 2007-10 period, nobody sensible in the ALP will ever dare to wish to ease off on the current mix of policies that have stopped the boats. And, if the people within the ALP who are not sensible on this subject ever get the upper hand, then the ALP is doomed to be returned to/remain in opposition until they wake up to themselves again.

    So the boats are likely to remain stopped for a long time to come.

    Yes we can’t have the ALP in opposition so stuff the young girl and others like her.

  23. phoenix
    Importantly, all those people did a huge amount of good. No-one ever has a bad word about Florey or Weary Dunlop. But that’s not true for the others.

    McBride was a fraud who falsified his results and was struck off the medical register.
    Chang was monumentally arrogant.
    I’m told Fred Hollows was a bit of an arsehole and bully to work with

    It does raise the interesting point; how do you balance out someone’s life. If someone does great good (like those five), does it make it more acceptable if they also did a few crappy things.

  24. phoenixRED @ #322 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 4:03 pm

    Diogenes says: Friday, February 9, 2018 at 3:55 pm
    phoenix
    Perhaps Florey, given he was from SA.
    Salk married Pablo Picasso’s mistress so he might not be the safest choice.

    *****************************************************

    Dio – I don’t know the background or the ‘misdemeanours’ of these well known Australian medicos – so will just toss in a few names – Weary Dunlop, Fred Hollows, William Mc Bride, Victor Chang, Howard Florey ……. I am sure you would honour any of those with your own skills and expertise …..

    PhR: All but Florey were surgeons of some sort – it sort of went with the territory then (…and still does in many cases, until they get caught). Florey was considered a (capable) arsehole, even at school, and went into pathology early for good reason. In contrast Mac Burnet and Frank Fenner were notoriously domestically honourable. Must be because they were both virologists.

  25. Wayne says:
    Friday, February 9, 2018 at 4:17 pm
    Yes I’m back and here to stay

    Do you make a regular voluntary contribution to keep PB going?

  26. Diogenes says: Friday, February 9, 2018 at 4:16 pm

    It does raise the interesting point; how do you balance out someone’s life. If someone does great good (like those five), does it make it more acceptable if they also did a few crappy things.

    ******************************************************

    I guess its a human frailty but I guess we all have a skeleton or two in our closets – either in thought or deed that we hope no-one ever finds out. For famous people – their lives are an open book so their skeletons become public property ( Beetrooter just the latest ) ….. fame without privacy seem mutually exclusive – and if they don’t know – they will make it up about them ….

    I guess you are left with Weary or Howard Florey – or just stay the old Diogenes of 2018 that we know so well !!!!

  27. I note that McLachlan has been cleared of all allegations

    Who cleared him? One “consultant” of unknown credibility and rigour, and whose methodology is unknown. You hire people like that when you want to engineer an outcome. In this case: news articles that faithfully include the line, “McLachlan cleared of allegations.”

  28. Socrates

    I think the secret file cabinet for sale is exactly the sort of script they could write for Utopia, and it would be highly believable. In both cases they are writing about incompetence.

    I think it’s what you should expect when governments spend years cutting any organisation, not replacing most staff who leave and replacing people at the base of it doing ‘little peoples’ work with people on 3 month contracts that they don’t expect to be renewed. The ‘little people’ respond by not giving a rats arse about their employers because it plain that their employer doesn’t give a rats arse about them.

    They’ll most likely find that whoever was responsible for the filing cabinet disposal isn’t around to be sacked.

  29. Are Woody Allen’s movies (some of which represent the pinnacle of American humour) all going to be banned?

    No. But he will find it difficult to make more films because fewer actors are willing to be associated with him.

  30. Wayne: “No as I know they will win all the by elections will are to behold in the coming months”

    Has Meguire Bob switched sides?

  31. Dio

    ‘I’m told Fred Hollows was a bit of an arsehole and bully to work with’

    I worked with Fred for two to three days. The work was done under a shade shelter without benefit of running water, power, or sewerage systems. It was very hot, very dusty and very third world: a Northern Territory Indigenous Homeland Centre in around 1974 or 5.
    I saw no signs of bullying or aresholery.
    In my three years in that place we saw one GP once.
    Fred was the only specialist we saw in all that time.
    In other contexts he may have been an arsehole and a bully.
    I don’t know.
    But to my direct knowledge he was respectful to the poorest of Australia’s poor and was prepared to work in the harshest and most poverty-stricken of circumstances.

  32. meher baba: careful with the casual drowning blame-game. Australia’s immigration policies have always been pretty strict – the main differences between Labors “let them all in policy” and the Coalition’s “stop the boats” policy come down to boat turn-backs (not exactly legal) and TPVs (which are unusual and particularly cruel). Despite popular belief, Labor’s policies – particularly in later years with indefinite detention – were still punitive in respect of boat arrivals.

    So given the existence of such harsh policies, why did the boats keep coming? Could it have been related to the constant political messaging by the Coalition that our borders were wide open and arrivals would be welcomed with bundles of cash and government support? Abbott and his colleagues made no secret of the fact that boat arrivals were great political fodder, and voted against a number of Labor policies designed to discourage arrivals (such as the Malaysia policy – later copied by the Coalition) on the nakedly political grounds that more boats = more votes. Messaging here was important – evidenced by the millions later spent by the Coalition on advertisements and even movies warning asylum seekers of the harsh treatment that would await them if they made the trip.

    Despite the crocodile tears over asylum-seekers drowning, it was always a circumstance that was encouraged and contributed to by the Coalition.

  33. If Barnaby’s Joyce’s wife had been okay with him having sex outside of their marriage, then it would have been a purely private matter that should not have been publicized. But what he did involved an extreme level of selfishness and a horrible betrayal of the important people in his life, and the public ought to to know this information so that they can decide how much weight to attach to it. They might decide that the person is doing a good job and should continue to do that job. Or they might prefer to elect someone who is less selfish and less callous towards the important people in their life. It shouldn’t be up to journalists to decide that just because it involved consensual sex, it is automatically a personal and private matter that should be hushed up.

  34. The bot hasn’t been around PB since the other philandering, non resident S44 turd faced a byelection. I wonder if it’s a manifestation of Trumble’s panic?

  35. Nicholas: “Who cleared him? One “consultant” of unknown credibility and rigour, and whose methodology is unknown. You hire people like that when you want to engineer an outcome. In this case: news articles that faithfully include the line, “McLachlan cleared of allegations.”

    When you say “unknown credibility and rigour”: as far as I can see, Fiona Bigelli, who undertook the review, is a well-regarded investigator in this area. Nevertheless, you are happy to make ungrounded allegations about her competence and impartiality.

    Typical of the #metoo mentality: accuse first, look for facts later (if at all).

    It will be interesting to see how McLachlan’s defamation actions go: I wonder whether the courts (if it gets that far) will be so quick to dismiss Ms Bigelli’s professionalism.

  36. Nicholas “If Barnaby’s Joyce’s wife had been okay with him having sex outside of their marriage, then it would have been a purely private matter that should not have been publicized. But what he did involved an extreme level of selfishness and a horrible betrayal of the important people in his life, and the public ought to to know this information so that they can decide how much weight to attach to it. ”

    Do you have any political heroes? If so, all I can advise is, be careful what you wish for here.

  37. BW
    It’s actually really common for surgeon’s to be really nice to their patients but total arseholes to their colleagues.

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