BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Poll trend latest: Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull up, One Nation down, two-party picture unchanged.

The only poll this week was a Newspoll that gave the Coalition its best result since last April, but given the pollster’s stability over that time, that isn’t saying all that much. Certainly it hasn’t made much difference to BludgerTrack, on which the Coalition improves only on the primary vote, and that at One Nation’s expense rather than Labor’s. The Coalition is up one on the seat projection in Queensland, but down one in Western Australia. The change is more noticeable on the leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval trend picking up sharply, and confirms his recent uptick on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

617 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. Confessions @ #550 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 10:32 pm

    Diogenes @ #543 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 7:22 pm

    I agree. But that is the hypocrisy. Hysterics about Joyce’s partner getting a job (which we don’t know if she was qualified for or not) and applause for Lib-Lab appointing Brandis/Rann/Beazley/Downer getting plum diplomatic jobs (depending of your political affiliation).

    Surely nobody has cornered the market on cynical and inappropriate family appointments than Donald Trump. There is no evidence of Jared Kushner’s suitability or qualifications to hold the numerous cabinet positions he has.

    I always think of Zoolander striking a ‘Blue Steel’ pose when I see Jared Kushner. In every photo he always puts his best side forward!

  2. Diogenes @ #549 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 10:31 pm

    I agree that cronyism is completely wrong and if they wasted taxpayers money to create a lucrative job for her that should be investigated as corruption by a federal ICAC or Auditor-General. Along with all the other cases in other MPs offices. But no MPs want that.

    Labor wants a Federal NIC. So they must have considered what they were letting themselves in for.

  3. Actually, I had a conversation with my son the other day trying to put a long lens on the whole affair, so to speak. He was telling me that this sort of thing has been going on since Roman and Greek times. So his point was, it’s obviously not going to go away any time soon, no matter how much we may wish it too, so maybe we should just accept it as part and parcel of power?

    Fair enough, in a brutally honest sense. Doesn’t mean I like the idea of taxpayers’ money going to support these political concubines. In fact, what the hell, let them bonk themselves stupid, but they should pay for it with their after tax dollars.

  4. Oh dear. An MP-staffer bromance definitely on the wane.

    8 mins ·
    The Rob Porter crisis has become a John Kelly crisis, and it has now totally engulfed the West Wing.

    The bottom line: Trump’s affection for his chief of staff is gone, and Kelly has lost the goodwill of much of his staff.

  5. For those who want a different perspective on fidelity and infidelity, on lust, deception, commitment, contrivance and illusions…and the joy of forgiveness and redemption…I recommend The Marriage of Figaro, being broadcast just now on ABC Classic FM…..

  6. Actually, I had a conversation with my son the other day trying to put a long lens on the whole affair, so to speak. He was telling me that this sort of thing has been going on since Roman and Greek times. So his point was, it’s obviously not going to go away any time soon, no matter how much we may wish it too, so maybe we should just accept it as part and parcel of power?

    Well in my view your son is half right. Affairs of the heart and of the flesh have indeed occurred since Roman and Greek times, but they are not limited to the theatre of politics. You cant help who you’re attracted to and because we spend so much time at work, it stands to reason that invariably those attractions will be with people we work with at some point.

    In my experience this isn’t something solely impacting those in politics, but people everywhere.

  7. Interesting AFR article tonight on Barnaby – Nats worried that what is already known is just “the tip of the iceberg”

    Maybe the rumours brewing for months re his alleged preditory behaviour are coming to a head ……

  8. Front page of tomorrow’s SmearStralian has more Barnyard..

    Got a little Barnaby Joyce yarn on the front tomorrow. (From Rick Morton of the Smear)

  9. I guess it’s true you can’t help who you are attracted to but when you are a married man, or woman, I feel its a good idea to keep those emotions under control.

    What is not a good idea is to give in to the feelings and then enter into a clandestine relationship which is facilitated by the nature of your work which involves a lot of travel coincidentally in company with the object of your affection who also happens to work for you.

    That would be bad if you were a butcher or baker or candlestick maker but when you are the second-ranked politician in the country it really does call into question your honesty, propriety and principles and a whole lot of other things.

    But when your scandalous behaviour comes to light just say its a private matter and some people will just move along. Nothing to see here.

  10. So what happened to the job organised for Barnyard’s lover in Matt Canavan’s ministerial office when he stood aside as a minister over S44?

    Well tomorrow’s Daily TurdBurgler has Malcolm helping out….

    Barnaby Joyce affair: Prime Minister authorised creation of parliamentary jobs for Vikki Campion | Daily Telegraph › nsw
    5 minutes ago · The Prime Minister authorised the creation of a job for Mr Joyce’s now-pregnant girlfriend Vikki Campion in Senator Canavan’s office and also condoned her move to the office of Nationals Chief Whip Damian Drum.

  11. If I was South Korea and some bastard come up with the brilliant idea to share the Winter Olympics with NorthK, using a hastily designed set of symbols and uniforms (I assume), and to kick out qualifying athletes to fit in the 22 NK unknowns, all the while knowing how Kimmy boy is going to spin it in his fiefdom while not kicking in a single dried peppercorn or whatever passes for money on the other side of the DMZ, I would tell them to go and do whatever rabbits do to multiply.

  12. While I welcome any merde that hits Talcolm on the head….

    Why is it a scandal to make a ‘job for the girl’ when they make bigger and better ‘jobs for the boys’ all the bloody time?

    Australian High Commissioner to the UK is just a golden handshake.

    Ambassador to USA is not much better nowadays.

    And let’s not mention the Vatican gig! (That did go to one of the girls, albeit a dutiful Lib one).

  13. Gipps

    But we will refer you to the Coalition government’s Federal Uniform Cashless Kissarze Workers Inhouse Traineeships.

    You will be FUCKWITted in two shakes of a beetroot’s figleaf.

  14. One of the peeps responding to Yvonne Best last night told her to cancel all her social media and change all her passwords immediately. Maybe she has taken that advice?

  15. She is a woman who tweeted that if any journo wanted to know about Barnaby’s dastardly deeds, they should contact her.

    It doesn’t appear that any of them have taken her up on it.

  16. As soon as the tele starts criticising an LNP government you know it’s done. Clearly Rupert has given up on Turnball. The current coverage of the Joyce scandal reminds me a lot of the LNP scandal coverage (particularly the pamphlet scandal) in the tele before Rudd was elected. Wait, until shorten gets into office though and their tune will change. It won’t take long before Shorten is elected before the anti-Labor machine starts up again. All of this feels so very familiar.

  17. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    This contribution from Peter Hartcher is well worth reading.
    Take the time to read this contribution from Julia Baird in which she looks at the double standards in political reporting.
    David Wroe writes expansively on how Penny Wong delivered a speech to a think tank in Singapore that set a high watermark for sheer substance, some might say density, by a shadow foreign affairs minister. It was so rich in foreign policy analysis that one scholar at a leading Australian university has set it as reading material for his international relations students.
    Phil Coorey writes that the Coalition is digging in for a tax-driven election. Google.
    The SMH editorialises that private lives DO affect public issues.
    The Australian gives us this goss on Barnaby who it reports is living rent-free with the mother of his unborn child in an Armidale townhouse owned by a multi-millionaire ¬businessman who is an influential player in New England politics and was once ¬accused of trying to bribe Tony Windsor. It also exposes the nepotistic treatment given to the lady. Google.
    Caroline Overington also gets into the Joyce story saying the affair needed to be outed. Google.
    In Michael West’s website Sandi Keane tells us how the fossil fuel lobby has governments ensnared.
    Quentin dempster tells us that the Barnaby Joyce saga is far from over.
    And Phil Coorey writes that Nationals MPs are beginning to question whether Barnaby Joyce can survive as leader, claiming their conservative voters are angry at revelations of his extramarital affair. Google.
    Crispin Hull cheekily asks, “Why not fund an Australian tobacco industry? We’re doing it for weapons.”
    Ross Gittins writes that finally an indigenous middle class has emerged.
    Richard Dennis gets stuck into Canavan over his handling of the Adani issue.
    The Molan/Bandt spat is over. For the time being.
    Peter van Onselen looks at the vexed question on whether or not to report on politicians’ private lives. Google.
    Alan Finkel has struck out at the electric car doubters.
    On the subject of closing the gap Jack Waterford concludes that It isn’t goals, targets, or gap-closing announcements that are the problem. It’s the want of plans to achieve them. Muddling along, ceaseless reorganisation and repackaging of programs, and glossy pamphlets are not the same thing.
    Hopefully distressing stories like this will get to the banking royal commission.
    Michael Koziol tells us how he Turnbull government wants to encourage tradies to become teachers, and nurses to swap the clinic for the classroom, under a plan to “shake up” the country’s schools.
    Historian Benjamin Jones writes about Australia, the republic in waiting for 150 years.
    Fergus Hunter reports that The Turnbull government has explicitly promised to take its $65 billion company tax cut package to the next election.
    A push to introduce popular plebiscites for pre-selections in the NSW Liberal Party is unlikely to be fully successful this weekend, despite some spirited backing from former prime minister Tony Abbott. Google.
    Pell’s lawyers want access to the medical records of people who have accused him of sexual offences, denying it is “a fishing expedition.”
    In a country with an embattled approach to matters of free speech and a protected media, the foreign interference laws being proposed by the Turnbull Government can only be worrying.,11183
    Another very good contribution from Paul Bongiorno who looks at George Brandis’s departure several current issues.
    Jacqui Maley on how Jim Molan helped give extremism a respectable face.
    Karen Middleton has got to the bottom of the filing cabinet papers story.
    The Turnbull government’s concessions on secrecy laws do not go far enough and the legislation should be “withdrawn and redrafted from scratch”, Australia’s journalist union has argued.
    Mike Seccombe writes that as the government looks for easy votes in national security, clumsy legislation finds an unexpected enemy in the News Corp tabloids. It’s a federal war on news and truth he says.
    Ross Jones on the “Barnaby Joyce miracle”.,11184
    The death throes of Myer.
    How Westfarmers kicked an own goal with its Bunnings UK adventure. Google.
    The perfect match of Bernardi and Shelton.
    The New Matilda’s list of the top 30 politicians we love to hate.
    It hasn’t even started yet – you’ll have to wait until Monday for that – but the royal commission into banks could turn out to be a dud. The commission says it will offer no legal protection to alleged victims of misconduct by the industry who have already signed confidentiality agreements that prevent them speaking publicly about their experiences.
    Mat Wade examines the entrenched penalty of motherhood.–even-in-denmark-20180209-h0vur7.html
    Clancy Yeates says that new lending to property investors slumped by a tenth last year as tougher bank credit standards started to bite, but the prudential regulator is “not declaring victory just yet.”
    If Elizabeth Farrelly had a magic wand she would ban these six things.
    Why domestic abusers thrive in Trump’s White House.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and Trump’s great parade.

    Alan Moir and Closing the Gap.

    David Pope captioned this “But we still have Manus”.

    Peter Broelman on keeping private lives private.

    Zanetti goes after Bandt.

    Cathy Wilcox says they just don’t get it.

    Matt Golding enjoying the winter Olympics opening.

    And four more from Matt.

    Clever stuff from Glen Le Lievre.

    Mark Knight takes to Mars with the Tesla.

    Alan Moir goes to the movies.

    Jon Kudelka at the winter Olympics.

  18. Trump Jeopardizes American Lives By Refusing To Read Written Intelligence Reports

    The Washington Post reported:
    For much of the past year, President Trump has declined to participate in a practice followed by the past seven of his predecessors: He rarely if ever reads the President’s Daily Brief, a document that lays out the most pressing information collected by U.S. intelligence agencies from hot spots around the world.

    Trump has opted to rely on an oral briefing of select intelligence issues in the Oval Office rather than getting the full written document delivered to review separately each day, according to three people familiar with his briefings.

  19. Woodward And Bernstein Warn That Trump Is Echoing Nixon’s Watergate Downfall

    Woodward and Bernstein wrote in The Washington Post:

    We’re here again. A powerful and determined president is squaring off against an independent investigator operating inside the Justice Department. Robert Mueller’s mission is a comprehensive look at Russian meddling in the 2016 election — and any other crimes he uncovers in the process. President Trump insists it’s all a “witch hunt” and an unfair examination of his family’s personal finances. He constantly complains about the investigation in private and reportedly asked his White House counsel to have Mueller fired. No wonder many people are making comparisons to the “Saturday Night Massacre” of 1973, when President Richard Nixon fired special prosecutor Archibald Cox, and Attorney General Elliot Richardson and Deputy Attorney General William Ruckelshaus resigned.

    We covered that eerily similar confrontation for The Washington Post 45 years ago. Nixon didn’t know it at the time, but the Saturday Night Massacre would become a pivot point in his presidency — crucial to the charge that he’d obstructed justice. For him, the consequences were terminal.

  20. Morning all

    Goodness me. The advice for Barnaby prior to the by election in December,should have been to resign gracefully and walk away. Instead, he has created a shit show!

  21. Phoenix

    What exactly makes Mueller “independent” Was he not most of his career working for the FBI. I know he was involved in the “anthrax” FBI investigation (and got it badly wrong).

    Surely he is in a sense investigating his own work colleagues?

    He may be excellent, but it is a bit strong calling him “independent”

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