Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No sign of seasonal goodwill extending to our political leaders, both of whom score declining approval ratings in the first federal poll for the year.

The New Year poll drought has been brought to an end by Essential Research, which will henceforth be conducting fortnightly polls, dispensing with its long establishing practice of polling weekly and publishing two-week rolling averages. As related by The Guardian, the poll has Labor’s lead unchanged on the final poll last year at 53-47 – as usual, primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today. Both leaders’ personal ratings have weakened: Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 45%, Bill Shorten is down four on approval to 32% and up four disapproval to 49%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 42-28 to 42-25.

Other findings: 53% support a tax on sugar-sweetened drinks, with 38% opposed; 44% support and 29% oppose “Australia becoming a republic with an Australian head of state”, which is all but identical to when the same question was asked a year ago (44% and 30%); and society is widely seen as going to pot, with crime perceived as on the rise across all categories, regardless of what the official statistics might say.

UPDATE: The primary votes are Coalition 37% (steady), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady), One Nation 6% (down one). Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,426 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. dtt:

    I think you missed the point. Dictatorships survive BECAUSE they have legitimacy. You might not like it and it would not work in Australia but the NK regime survives fundamentally because its population accepts it and grants it legitimacy. The transfer father to son actualy confers the legitimacy of monarchy. Can you not see that.

    Well, you’re correct about one thing – I am utterly baffled as to what your point is supposed to be.

    Are you trying to argue that Putin isn’t a dictator or not? You keep asking me to provide “legitimate sources” to prove what I’m saying, and clearly disagree eneough with me to compose multiple rambling walls-of-text in response, yet in the same breath you repeatedly say Putin is a dictator! Just what are you trying to say, anyway?

    I’m sure Putin is considered a legitimate leader by a substantial portion of the Russian populace – a government controlled media and neutered opposition forces tends to do a good job of achieving that. But what does his apparent legimatacy or lack-thereof have to do with the argument of whether or not the Russian government is an authoritarian regime?

    I really realy had to laugh at your “sources.

    The Economist for crying out loud, the organ of the free marketeers and anti socialists of the British upper class. Sure it is erudite and informative but when it comes to anything about Russia or socialism you would have more luck getting Ian paisley to say nice things about the IRA.

    Then you cited a whole lot of US propaganda arms without even a nod to your own unblinking acceptance of propaganda

    Then WaPo (which despite Merryl St was a fairly RW enabling paper as it still is.

    I did say unbiased sources did I not.

    Yeah, if you don’t consider the Washington Post to be a reputable source, I’m not sure we’re going to find many points of agreement here.

    And obviously all these US outlets are simply government spruikers, what with how complimentary they all have been of the present administration.

    Out of curiosity, what do you consider to be an “unbiased” source?

  2. Gol darn it!

    Being new to Android phones (our old ones expired when 2G went phut last year) I finally tried out using my new “smart” phone as a wireless hotspot.

    Where we are moving “up North” the NBN is in a state of flux, and the phone connection to the house has dodgy wiring. But there is a nearby Telstra 4G phone tower with a strong signal.

    So we thought, at least temporarily, to eschew a separate landline and internet service and go with a Mobile Hotspot covering everything: phone and internet. Might even save some money, as well as having a continuity of connection.

    Blow me down! My phone as a Mobile Hotspot worked quite well here in Sydney. Seamless connection process, completed in 30 seconds, 30mbps down and 25mbps up… slower than HFC download here (but we DO pay a premium for 100mbps HFC), but much faster on the upload.

    So, if anyone out there knows their mobile stuff,

    (a) what is the flaw in my plan to go completely wireless, and
    (b) should I consider keeping it so permanently?

    Thanks in advance for any answers.

  3. Some references please (and not from News Express or Breitbart or WaPo). Actual journalists without a national bias.

    Does DTT think the WaPo is some alt-left blog and not a national newspaper (with actual journalists)?

    What a hoot!

  4. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Monday, January 22, 2018 at 9:49 am
    I was looking at a map of North Korea last night and came to its northern border with Russia and China.

    Completely bizarre!

    China’s infiltration along the border looks like a US gerrymander electoral map.

    How did this come to be?

    https://www.google.com/maps/@42.4717734,130.5587768,11.25z

    Looks to me as though the border follows rivers, for the most part.

  5. bemused:

    I believe BiGD is referring to the little snake of Chinese territory squeezed in between the Russian and North Korean borders. River or no, it looks pretty strange.

  6. Bushfire Bill @ #3002 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 9:51 am

    So, if anyone out there knows their mobile stuff,

    (a) what is the flaw in my plan to go completely wireless, and
    (b) should I consider keeping it so permanently?

    A few things to consider before you decide:

    1. Cost. Wireless data tends to be very expensive, especially if you go over your allowance. Check your plan.

    2. Congestion. Wireless works very well until the network starts getting congested. Then it sucks big time. Check at different times of day (and remember that holidays are not a good time to check for congestion – especially not the classic “after school” slowdown).

  7. Bushfire Bill @ #3002 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 9:51 am

    Gol darn it!

    Being new to Android phones (our old ones expired when 2G went phut last year) I finally tried out using my new “smart” phone as a wireless hotspot.

    Where we are moving “up North” the NBN is in a state of flux, and the phone connection to the house has dodgy wiring. But there is a nearby Telstra 4G phone tower with a strong signal.

    So we thought, at least temporarily, to eschew a separate landline and internet service and go with a Mobile Hotspot covering everything: phone and internet. Might even save some money, as well as having a continuity of connection.

    Blow me down! My phone as a Mobile Hotspot worked quite well here in Sydney. Seamless connection process, completed in 30 seconds, 30mbps down and 25mbps up… slower than HFC download here (but we DO pay a premium for 100mbps HFC), but much faster on the upload.

    So, if anyone out there knows their mobile stuff,

    (a) what is the flaw in my plan to go completely wireless, and
    (b) should I consider keeping it so permanently?

    Thanks in advance for any answers.

    It is relatively expensive for data.
    If you use a lot of data, it could get expensive.
    The speed may reduce as more jump on board doing what you propose or otherwise using it.
    Can’t think of any other downside issues.

  8. Asha Leu says:
    Monday, January 22, 2018 at 9:58 am
    bemused:

    I believe BiGD is referring to the little snake of Chinese territory squeezed in between the Russian and North Korean borders. River or no, it looks pretty strange.

    ________________

    That bit is only about 20 km by less than two.

  9. bemused @ #3006 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 5:56 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #3000 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 9:49 am

    I was looking at a map of North Korea last night and came to its northern border with Russia and China.

    Completely bizarre!

    China’s infiltration along the border looks like a US gerrymander electoral map.

    How did this come to be?

    https://www.google.com/maps/@42.4717734,130.5587768,11.25z

    The border follows a river. They don’t usually run in straight lines.

    But that’s the thing, the North Korean border follows the river but the China-Russia border meanders over land, sometimes less than a couple of hundred metres separate the 2.

  10. But that’s the thing, the North Korean border follows the river but the China-Russia border meanders over land, sometimes less than a couple of hundred metres separate the 2.

    __________________

    Might be historical, giving access to a long time area. It was certainly negotiated, with each side giving a little for their own ends.

  11. Confessions @ #3004 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 9:55 am

    Some references please (and not from News Express or Breitbart or WaPo). Actual journalists without a national bias.

    Does DTT think the WaPo is some alt-left blog and not a national newspaper (with actual journalists)?

    What a hoot!

    Probably also The Economist, Foreign Policy Journal, The Atlantic and various think tanks like Chatham House. Tey are biased simply because they are based in the US or UK, apparently. Better to believe the ones based in Upper Lesotho, or sumfink. 🙂

  12. So, where is the single longest straight stretch of land border in the world? US/Canada? Western

    Australia and its better half? Algeria/Mauretania plus Mali?

    I reckon the sandgropers might be able to claim this one. Not sure.

  13. The border between Russia and China probably followed the river, but then the river moved. And the North Korean border follows the current path of the river.

    You can see some other examples where a river has moved and left some small enclaves that belong to the territory of the “wrong” side.

  14. Barney in Go Dau @ #3014 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 10:01 am

    bemused @ #3006 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 5:56 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #3000 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 9:49 am

    I was looking at a map of North Korea last night and came to its northern border with Russia and China.

    Completely bizarre!

    China’s infiltration along the border looks like a US gerrymander electoral map.

    How did this come to be?

    https://www.google.com/maps/@42.4717734,130.5587768,11.25z

    The border follows a river. They don’t usually run in straight lines.

    But that’s the thing, the North Korean border follows the river but the China-Russia border meanders over land, sometimes less than a couple of hundred metres separate the 2.

    No convenient river for the Russia – China border.
    But on a larger scale, the slice of land Russia has, connecting it with NK is a bit odd. Anyone know the history of it and how long it has been Russian territory?

  15. What has happened to all the ‘African gangs’ allegedly terrorising the population of Melbourne?

    Turnbull and Dutton have gone silent and Murdoch/Fairfax seem to have lost interest.

    Perhaps they’re too busy fighting the culture wars over Australia Day.

  16. Wayne Swan‏Verified account @SwannyQLD · 11s12 seconds ago

    CEOs trumpeting similar benefits in Australia of a Trump style corporate tax cut ignore dividend imputation which means the main benefactors are overseas shareholders #auspol

  17. Seeing dtt dross being copied in other posters comnents.
    The horseshoe theory really does apply in this case!

    Fess

    Nunes is up to his neck in it.
    Will do anything to put shade on the investigation.
    Mueller knows everything and Nunes is stuffed

  18. ar:

    In all likelihood he’s ordering a pizza or KFC. You’d think they could’ve at least put some paperwork on the desk, tried to make it look like he was working.

  19. I have supported PollBludger ..first via a Crikey subscription, then with a small donation to assist William’s excellent solo effort ..for several years. I’ve enjoyed the cut & thrust of debates and, of course BK’s fantastic “dawn patrol”.

    Yesterday I finally realised I didn’t wish to be exposed to Guytaur’s seemingly inexhaustible and never ending arguments about essentially feck-all ..and I was tired of scrolling through his inane flame-wars with posters who have more time and patience to put up with him than I have ..much kudos to them!!

    So thanks William ..but no thanks.

    My small contribution will now go towards a Strava Premium Go account & I’ll get my fill of BK from ThePUB..

    Good luck to you all ..I’ll be fighting Tories over on Twitter..

  20. BB
    Where you are going to live it will probably gave NBN fixed wireless which will do reasonable job. Mobile is no good from a cost point of view for lots of downloads and streaming.

  21. “So, where is the single longest straight stretch of land border in the world? US/Canada? ”

    Yep. According to Wikipedia, the straight section along the 49th parallel is rougly 3,500 km; the WA border is about half that (1,862km.)

  22. Foreign PolicyVerified account@ForeignPolicy
    12m12 minutes ago
    “In any other administration, this would count as a Category 5 political hurricane, but no one imagines that it will sweep the ‘very stable genius’ away.”

    Max Boot on Donald Trump’s whirlwind week:

    http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/16/last-week-was-a-degrading-embarrassment-and-a-microcosm-of-trump/?utm_content=buffer4c45a&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Trump’s incompetence is becoming mainstreamed. The errors and stuff ups come so thick and fast that it’s just become a normal part of this presidency.

  23. I believe BiGD is referring to the little snake of Chinese territory squeezed in between the Russian and North Korean borders. River or no, it looks pretty strange.

    I can not begin to tell you how complicated geopolitical demarcation is. For some light reading you could look up Ethiopia/Eritrea demarcation.

    Little things like tiny villages, pipes, traditional fishing areas, roads can send simple borders into crazy snakes. And that isnt even getting started with geopolitical negotiation and historical context. There also appears to be a mountain range in this one – often using centre of rivers can be more trouble than it seems.

  24. Mark @ #3036 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 10:26 am

    Yesterday I finally realised I didn’t wish to be exposed to Guytaur’s seemingly inexhaustible and never ending arguments about essentially feck-all ..and I was tired of scrolling through his inane flame-wars with posters who have more time and patience to put up with him than I have ..much kudos to them!!

    I know how you feel – I also have considered permanently decamping to The Pub, but there are other posters here on PB that I also enjoy reading. Not to mention William’s contributions!

    Instead of leaving, you might consider using C+ and putting a temporary block on specific posters when these flame wars break out? There are a couple of posters here I add to my ‘blocked’ list quite regularly, but usually only for a day or two until things die down again.

    Just a suggestion.

  25. Markjs.

    Sorry. By partisan Labor person I mean I am not surprised you don’t like a different viewpoint to the Labor groupthink.

  26. Victoria @ #3031 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 10:20 am

    Seeing dtt dross being copied in other posters comnents.
    The horseshoe theory really does apply in this case!

    Fess

    Nunes is up to his neck in it.
    Will do anything to put shade on the investigation.
    Mueller knows everything and Nunes is stuffed

    He sure as hell is! This is how much:

    *Twitter accounts linked to Russian influence operations have begun promoting the hashtag #ReleaseTheMemo.
    *It’s a reference to a document written by Rep. Devin Nunes that purports to show abuse by the Obama administration of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.
    *The frequency with which the accounts have been promoting the hashtag has spiked by 233,000% over the past 48 hours, according to an analysis.
    *The most-shared URL has been a link to WikiLeaks’ “submit” page.

    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/release-the-memo-campaign-russia-linked-twitter-accounts-2018-1?r=US&IR=T

  27. Perhaps they’re too busy fighting the culture wars over Australia Day.

    Maybe the “African Gangs” will be back after Australia Day.

  28. BB,
    Let us know how your exploration of wi-fi internet goes. I use it on holidays and anecdotally it seems perfectly good, although I don’t tend to do much more than email and reading the news when I’m on holiday.

    I assume the data charges would be too high, but what with 5G on the way and plans always changing etc I have thought I would seriously look into it before we are forced onto the NBN in about a year.

    This is the problem with hobbling the NBN, it makes it too easy for other competitors to come in and cherry pick profitable market segments, which in turn will erode the viability of NBN and kill off a ubiquitous service.

    FTTP was the way to go and is impossible to beat. Whoever inherits Turnbull’s mess will have a dog’s breakfast to deal with. I think it’s wise that the ALP have not been promising too much, because we probably don’t know how bad it really is.

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