Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Overwhelming support for a banking royal commission in the latest Essential poll, which finds Labor maintaining its big lead on voting intention.

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead unchanged at 54-46. Beyond that, I’m a bit tied up at this point to discuss the attitudinal results (chief among which is 64% support for a royal commission into banking), but they are as ever summarised in The Guardian, and will be available in complete form when the full report is published later today, together with the primary vote numbers. I believe we should also have YouGov along later today.

UPDATE. YouGov/Fifty Acres: 53-47 to Labor

The fortnightly YouGov/Fifty Acres poll has Labor’s lead out to a new high of 53-47, but this is due to preferences rather than primary votes: Labor and the Coalition are now tied on 32% of the primary vote, after Labor led 34% to 31% last time, with One Nation steady on 11% and the Greens down a point to 10%. There is also a preferred prime minister question recording a 31% tie, with Malcolm Turnbull rated strong by 21%, weak by 41$ and neither by 30%.

The poll records an interestingly high level of support for constitutional change allowing dual citizens to run for office, with 46% in favour and 40% opposed. Also featured are national approval ratings for the Bennelong by-election candidates, both of whom do very well on both name recognition and personal support (40% favourable of John Alexander and 28% unfavourable; 39% and 29% for Kristina Keneally). Forty-six per cent support new religious protection laws in same sex marriage legislation, with 36% opposed; 55% say the government has a responsibility for the safety of asylum seekers on Manus Island, with 36% for the contrary. The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1034.

The full Essential Research report has the Coalition up a point on the primary vote, to 36%, Labor steady on 38%, the Greens steady on 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. Sixty-four per cent of respondents favoured a banking royal commission, with only 12% opposed. Questions on the economy produced a mixed bag: 33% rate its state as good with 24% for poor, but 39% think it headed on the wrong direction compared with 31% for right. A question about economic issues of concern finds the highest ratings for anything to do with prices, particularly energy prices, and lesser but still substantial concern about income tax and interest rates. Forty-nine per cent supported incentives and subsidies to speed the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, 16% leaving it to the market, and 12% who wanted intervention to slow the process.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

939 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 19
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  2. Player One @ #91 Tuesday, November 28th, 2017 – 10:07 am

    CTar1 @ #84 Tuesday, November 28th, 2017 – 10:02 am

    a r – Just confirming the ‘reload’ stops working coming up to the end of the first page. It stopped working this time on comment 46.

    A refresh (possibly 2) bought up comment 51 and onwards skipping 47 – 50. Then another refresh filled the gap and after that ‘reload’ works as normal.

    I have noticed this as well, but not just on the first page. It can happen on any page.

    I was surprised that when I checked the information above it proved correct,
    and
    The comment box retained old information occasionally after a computer restart.

    None of the above is a real bother, as I had not noticed the skipping comment part and the second item is easily corrected.

    ☕

  3. Barney in Go Dau @ Tuesday, November 28th, 2017 – 10:02 am Comment #86

    What is it about the the Hottest 100 that says it must be on Invasion Day?

    Nothing, it’s the reason given for ‘moving’ it that is the point of contention.

  4. Australia’s mining industry has stepped back from its hard line on trying to limit the charity sector’s lobbying on energy and climate change issues.

    The Minerals Council of Australia says it does not support policies requiring environmental charities to devote most of their resources to on-the-ground remediation, despite previously writing submissions to government calling for it to consider such policies.

    Although the new stance seems to contradict earlier statements, the MCA insists there has been no change in its position.

    The move comes amid fractures between the MCA’s membership over the tough approach, with BHP recently publicly distancing itself from the MCA’s position on activity requirements for environmental charities.

    “They’ve over-reached in bashing-up on civil society, coal and climate and energy issues,” said Rod Campbell from the Australia Institute, who pressured the MCA to clarify its position. “They’ve gone rogue and they’re being pulled back – and that’s a good thing.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/28/mining-industry-body-retreats-hardline-stance-charities

  5. Long story short.

    Between songs Tina Arena suggest Evonne Goolagong- Crawley better represents Tennis than Maragret Court.

    Ie Crawley should adorn the stadium not Court.

  7. I’m finding this hard to swallow.

    Political Alert‏ @political_alert · 10m10 minutes ago

    A-G Senator Brandis has circulated 12 pages of further amendments to Marriage Amendment (Definition and Religious Freedoms) Bill 2017 http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/legislation/amend/s1099_amend_2bbd853e-b657-4462-9f0c-9db3e8754268/upload_pdf/8334%20CW%20Marriage%20Amendment%20(Definition%20and%20Religous%20Freedoms)%20Bill%202017.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf … #marriageequality #auspol

  11. Adrian

    Sorry but I thought as far as LNP Premiers go she is the most credible Premier.

    I do live in NSW and like it or not the polls are clear.

    I have not been polled but I am part of the percentage that won’t be voting LNP, but for Labor

  13. The ABC’s News station presenters must have been having trouble coming up with things to say this morning.

    Trioli kept on wanting to generate comment on whether JJJ moving the “Top 100” broadcast was part of ‘political wars’ or ‘cultural wars’ … FMD.

  14. Political Staffers
    Some Gold to be mined here.
    srpeatling: Senator Hanson says “ppl have a right to be happy” but “I feel it’s wrong”.
    lanesainty: She’s moved onto the Indigenous rights, saying there is “reverse racism” and the ’67 referendum led to more rights for Aboriginal Australians than other Australians.

  15. Here’s what the ABC cut, Labor will vote against amendments on Party lines! 🙂

    Labor will vote down all amendments on same-sex marriage

    Paul Karp Paul Karp
    Labor Senate leader, Penny Wong, and shadow attorney general, Mark Dreyfus, have just announced that Labor has reached a party position to vote down all substantive amendments to the marriage bill – both those advanced by conservatives, and those released by the Greens.

    Dreyfus said that no Labor MPs and Senators had sought a conscience vote on amendments, although they have a conscience vote on the final vote on a marriage bill.

    It is significant that this is a binding decision – because votes from half a dozen or so Labor MPs who had reserved their position would have been necessary for Coalition conservatives to get any of their changes approved.
    Last night Labor senator Helen Polley told the Senate she was in favour of more protections for religious freedom, freedom of speech and parental rights, but she also said it’s time to move on and get same-sex marriage done.

    Wong thanked her colleagues for the collegiate, collective approach to the issue. So obviously Polley and others with concerns have agreed to raise them through the religious freedom inquiry and will not be voting for conservative amendments and imperilling the same-sex marriage bill.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2017/nov/28/banking-inquiry-looks-certain-as-nationals-break-ranks-politics-live

  17. Well Guytaur, I don’t want to start an argument that lasts all day, but I’d suggest that the only group among which she has a shred of credibility is among her developer/construction mates.

    Sydney is systematically being destroyed for the benefit of a very few.
    Soon there will be nothing left to privatise, and not enough people to fill the poorly designed future ghettos, rising everywhere you look in this city.

    The polls are more an indication of Labor’s inability to cut through than any endorsement of this Premier or the party she represents.

  19. Adrian

    I agree on the reality. With a good leader Labor should be making this clear to voters.

    I was just pointing to the polling. That tells us like it or not at the moment she has credibility with voters.

    That credibility will take a hit being on board with Turnbull.

  20. I am thrilled, yes Henery, thrilled with Mr. Geo. F. Brandis’s circulated Marriage Amendment (Definition and Religious Freedoms) Bill 2017.

    I now understand, I say boy, I understand that Geo. is now working furiously on a bill to fully describe the Strayan model of the well known “Horses Arse” so prevalent particularly among (but not restricted to) the North to Deep north communities.

    He is to be commended for this mighty effort.

    Is Geo. married 😕 Would he countenance favourably a proposal from a humble petitioner (me) or should I, on reflection, save myself for Cory or Erica or, dare I hope for the affections of (gasp) Andrew ❓

  21. No one can follow her logic (which is probably why Malcolm Roberts thinks she’s brilliant).

    Mikearoo‏Verified account
    @mpbowers

    One Nation leader Pauline Hanson continues her contribution to debate on the bill to change the marriage act claiming that the 67 referendum has caused reverse racism

  22. Ides of March @ #118 Tuesday, November 28th, 2017 – 10:46 am

    Adrian

    This gives raise to the question, who else does NSW Labor have that capable?

    Jodi McKay?

    She is the only one who seems at all visible, apart from Walt Seecord (?), so I have no idea. A pity that KK has already been used to save the furniture.

    I don’t know what it is with Luke Folley, but he’s definitely not out there enough putting forward positive policies. It’s not as though he doesn’t have enough material to work with.

  23. An outline of the amendments being proposed.

    The shadow attorney general, Mark Dreyfus, said the bill hadcross-party support and was “an acceptable compromise”. It’s not exactly the bill that Labor would have put forward, “but that’s in the nature of compromises”.

    A little earlier, the Liberal senator James Paterson was on Sky News to explain the amendments. They include:

    The definition of marriage should separately recognises both man-woman marriage and “two-person marriage” as valid.
    Stronger protections for civil celebrants and conscientious objectors. Paterson wants to protect civil celebrants who are opposed to same-sex marriage and don’t want to be involved in such ceremonies.
    Protections for freedom of expression and to recognise legitimate beliefs.
    An anti-detriment shield protecting individuals and organisations with genuine convictions about traditional marriage. This would ensure they are not subject to unfavourable treatment by public authorities owing to their views.
    Freedom from being required to express, associate with, or endorse statement or opinion about marriage, which conflicts with genuine religious or conscientious convictions about marriage.
    Protections for charities that hold traditional views on marriage. This would allow charities like St Vincent de Paul’s, for example, to continue to express their views. It would not allow them to refuse to offer services to same-sex couples.
    Protection of religious bodies and schools and parents to have the right to withdraw children from certain classes. Paterson argues that parents now have the right to pull their kids from religious classes. He just wants the same for parents who don’t agree with same-sex marriage.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2017/nov/28/banking-inquiry-looks-certain-as-nationals-break-ranks-politics-live

  24. BW @9:48am If they did not have Adani, marriage equality, or a Manus, they would have to invent them.

    I’d say something similar applies on the right. Depending on the time and place
    they didn’t have boats, terror, recalcitrant radio stations and other ‘culture war’ stuff, they’d have to invent them. To a lerge extent, they have.

  25. Here’s more of Hanson now in the Senate, as referred to by lizzie.

    We’re back in the Senate on the same-sex marriage debate.

    In a remarkable feat of logic, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has used what she says is “reverse racism” against white Australians to argue against same-sex marriage.

    Bear with me here. I’ll do my best to get to the bottom of that.

    She has likened the same-sex marriage postal survey to the 1967 referendum on including Indigenous Australians in the census. Hanson says people thought they were voting to give Indigenous Australian equality. But, alas, we were all tricked and Indigenous Australians now have it better than white Australians. Now white Australians face reverse racism, she says.

    We have now made laws that is giving them more rights than other Australians. There is a division in Australia, there is reverse racism.

    People did not vote for that. Hence my concerns about this plebiscite. People say they want equality, they want the right to marry. I have no problem with that… if it was to be called a civil ceremony, Australians would not worry about that. But why is it that this push for people where the last census in 2011 there was 33,700 gay couples. And I can tell you all those gay couples don’t want to get married.

    So… yeah.

    Make what you will from that.

    Also, the children. What happens when they’re asked to draw a picture of mum and dad?

    What do we do as a society when these going to school… so the kid’s there saying ‘well what do I do, I don’t have a mum or a dad, it’s Peter and Sam, or it’s Elizabeth and Amanda. They’re not known as mum and dad’. So are we then going to say well we can’t discriminate against these children, so we must call that person by their real names. Is this the impact it’s going to have on our educational system, in our school rooms. What about grandma and granddad, it’s alright for this generation, but what about the next generation?

    Just as a postscript. Hanson asks why we are being “dictated to by the minority”. It’s a good question. One that the 61% of Australians who voted for same-sex marriage may well ask of One Nation.

  26. Oh, the confusion!

    Child: Muuuuuum, Mum won’t let me watch TV!

    or
    Child: Dad. Can I go to the beach?
    Dad: I don’t know! Go ask your father!

    How will they cope? 🙂

  27. The so-called protections sought for religious freedom are really just a shield for prejudice. They should be rejected. What we really need are guarantees of freedom from religion.

  28. Well, my mum and dad wanted to be known as “Tavi” and “Chutti” (their names being Vin and Ruth).
    My (Australian born) grandparents wanted to be called “Did” and “Miz”. Never caused me any difficulties at all.

  29. Of course, Pauline knows
    Indigenous Australians now have it better than white Australians
    That’s why their life expectancy is only 10 years shorter than the rest of Australia!

  30. Simple proposition for Pauline Hanson: visit a remote Aboriginal Community to see how good they’ve got it. Swap with a family who lives there for, say, a week (I think there’s a “Reality TV” show that has families swapping places. Something like that).

  32. political_alert: Opposition Leader @billshortenmp will join Deputy Leader @tanya_plibersek, Shadow Treasurer @Bowenchris and Labor candidate for Bennelong @KKeneally for a doorstop at 12pm, Sydney #auspol

  33. Barney in Go Dau (Block)
    Tuesday, November 28th, 2017 – 10:58 am
    Comment #125

    So… yeah.

    Make what you will from that.

    I believe that if one inserts all of Ms. Hanson’s utterances into a “Make Sense Generator ©”, available courtesy the retail outlet of”Dodgy Brothers and KayJay Enterprises” – the output will make supreme sense to those to be described by Mr. Geo. Brandis’s proposed “Horses Ass” description bill.
    Please try to keep up. 🙏

    On a more happy note, middle C, outside my bedroom window is growing strongly and reaching for the sky, a wonderful Gladioli bloom. I treasure this delightful piece of natural growth along with my “Judith Saffigna” lillies just now starting to pod.
    Many pardons if I have the spelling or terminology wrong. Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ

  36. “Opposition Leader @billshortenmp will join Deputy Leader @tanya_plibersek, Shadow Treasurer @Bowenchris and Labor candidate for Bennelong @KKeneally for a doorstop at 12pm, Sydney”
    I imagine ABC News will go to a basket weaving doco at 12pm.

  38. KayJay

    a “Make Sense Generator ©”, available courtesy the retail outlet of”Dodgy Brothers and KayJay Enterprises”

    You shouldn’t be flogging stuff on PB.
    Naughty.

  39. political_alert: Attorney-General George Brandis will shortly speak in the Senate to close debate and move the Second Reading of the Marriage Amendment (Definition and Religious Freedoms) Bill #auspol #MarriageEquality

  41. $100 million Bennelong Bus Interchange!

    It looks like Malcolm has scored an own goal with this one.
    Kristina Keneally was a minister in the Labor State Government that built the Epping to Chatswood Railway and was premier when it was integrated into the rest of the Cityrail network.

    Current NSW Premier, Gladys B. was one of the most vocal opponents of the Epping to Chatswood Railway. As Minister for Transport, Gladys commenced the project to convert the line to a low capacity metro. The metro maths used to justify the project compared metro crush loading with double-deck seated only capacity.

    When the metro conversion is completed, the Epping to Chatswood line will need to be supplemented with bus services. Gladys has tried to keep this secret for the five years since the downgrade was announced.

    Malcolm Turnbull has now let the secret out. When the metro conversion is complete, residents of North Ryde and Macquarie Park will be On The Buses!

  43. I wonder if this confrontation gives the media the ability to report on the going ons in Barnaby’s private life. That and the Don Burke revelations

  44. Trog Sorrenson @ #138 Tuesday, November 28th, 2017 – 11:36 am

    KayJay

    a “Make Sense Generator ©”, available courtesy the retail outlet of”Dodgy Brothers and KayJay Enterprises”

    You shouldn’t be flogging stuff on PB.
    Naughty.

    I thought I had gotten away with it.

    Why just yesterday I received in the inbox of “Mail Washer” a note to advise me that my Westpac account had been frozen and that I orta do something about it (Clever replica addresses enclosed).
    and only minutes ago another email telling me that my parcel (non existent) was ready for collection.

    So, of course, I thought today was open slather day and tried my luck.
    Fortunately, appearing down the page is a photo of the obvious perpetrators, that damn Bill Shorten with two of his most evil aids.

    I now rest my case and resume my gardening endeavours.

    Please forgive me. 🙏

  45. P1

    irony1
    [ahy-ruh-nee, ahy-er-]
    Spell Syllables
    Synonyms Examples Word Origin
    See more synonyms on Thesaurus.com
    noun, plural ironies.
    1.
    the use of words to convey a meaning that is the opposite of its literal meaning:
    the irony of her reply, “How nice!” when I said I had to work all weekend.
    2.
    Literature.
    a technique of indicating, as through character or plot development, an intention or attitude opposite to that which is actually or ostensibly stated.
    (especially in contemporary writing) a manner of organizing a work so as to give full expression to contradictory or complementary impulses, attitudes, etc., especially as a means of indicating detachment from a subject, theme, or emotion.
    3.
    Socratic irony.
    4.
    dramatic irony.
    5.
    an outcome of events contrary to what was, or might have been, expected.
    6.
    the incongruity of this.
    7.
    an objectively sardonic style of speech or writing.

  49. Yeah but like the rest of the msm press they havent gone there. And I mostly congratulate them for it.

    Politicians have affairs all the time. If the French President isnt im pretty sure France would fall apart. Its not really relevant to other matters.

    However if its a candidate that makes a strong argument around ‘family values’ then there could be an opening. Its a touch and go situation for the media.

  50. IOM

    Highlighting hypocrisy is a valid entry. However if allegations I have seen about chasing a minor into a toilet are true that is also worth investigation by authorities and what conclusions they drew.

    Other than that yes our tradition of respecting politicians private lives is good.

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