Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Overwhelming support for a banking royal commission in the latest Essential poll, which finds Labor maintaining its big lead on voting intention.

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead unchanged at 54-46. Beyond that, I’m a bit tied up at this point to discuss the attitudinal results (chief among which is 64% support for a royal commission into banking), but they are as ever summarised in The Guardian, and will be available in complete form when the full report is published later today, together with the primary vote numbers. I believe we should also have YouGov along later today.

UPDATE. YouGov/Fifty Acres: 53-47 to Labor

The fortnightly YouGov/Fifty Acres poll has Labor’s lead out to a new high of 53-47, but this is due to preferences rather than primary votes: Labor and the Coalition are now tied on 32% of the primary vote, after Labor led 34% to 31% last time, with One Nation steady on 11% and the Greens down a point to 10%. There is also a preferred prime minister question recording a 31% tie, with Malcolm Turnbull rated strong by 21%, weak by 41$ and neither by 30%.

The poll records an interestingly high level of support for constitutional change allowing dual citizens to run for office, with 46% in favour and 40% opposed. Also featured are national approval ratings for the Bennelong by-election candidates, both of whom do very well on both name recognition and personal support (40% favourable of John Alexander and 28% unfavourable; 39% and 29% for Kristina Keneally). Forty-six per cent support new religious protection laws in same sex marriage legislation, with 36% opposed; 55% say the government has a responsibility for the safety of asylum seekers on Manus Island, with 36% for the contrary. The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1034.

The full Essential Research report has the Coalition up a point on the primary vote, to 36%, Labor steady on 38%, the Greens steady on 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. Sixty-four per cent of respondents favoured a banking royal commission, with only 12% opposed. Questions on the economy produced a mixed bag: 33% rate its state as good with 24% for poor, but 39% think it headed on the wrong direction compared with 31% for right. A question about economic issues of concern finds the highest ratings for anything to do with prices, particularly energy prices, and lesser but still substantial concern about income tax and interest rates. Forty-nine per cent supported incentives and subsidies to speed the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, 16% leaving it to the market, and 12% who wanted intervention to slow the process.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

939 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 19
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  1. More construction! And at the same time that all the train stations in Macquarie Park will be closed to upgrade them for the Metro!

  2. Also I haven’t been to Macquarie Centre recently but do the artists impressions of the new interchange look exactly like what is there currently?

  4. Futurist? Mark Pesce writes an excellent piece on Government and tech.

    Governing in the Age of Surveillance Capitalism
    INTRODUCTION: ZERO-DAY EXPLOITS
    The world has changed more than we recognise.

    The Federal government plans to offer a facial recognition API to commercial firms.
    The conjunction of pervasive surveillance, platform capitalism and artificial intelligence have pushed the entire world into a sort of ‘post-real’ era.
    The mirror of the post-real is ‘fake news’ — which seems to be anything we don’t want to hear.
    We live inside systems that edit what we see and hear of the world around us, ‘curating’ the overwhelming flow of human sharing into something that allows us to maintain the pretence of stability.
    We have quickly lost sight that these systems are entirely artificial.

    https://medium.com/@mpesce/governing-in-the-age-of-surveillance-capitalism-f6ca8e6e42c7

  6. Trog Sorrenson @ #42 Tuesday, November 28th, 2017 – 9:01 am

    AEMO ready for summer heat after finding 2GW of new capacity

    New capacity? Really?

    AEMO has launched a comprehensive campaign, which in tandem with initiatives from the state and federal governments has resulted in more than 800MW of re-opened gas generators, nearly 900MW of demand response, and nearly 300MW of temporary diesel generators.

    Do you even bother to read the articles you post here? Past the headline, I mean?

  7. Steve777 @ #17 Tuesday, November 28th, 2017 – 4:01 am

    “I think the difference is the greens policies arn’t a complete turnoff for a large portion of Labor voters.”

    Greens policies and those who support them seem weird, extreme and incomprehensible to right wingers because Greens don’t believe it’s all about money, that maximising your after-tax income is the ultimate purpose of human endeavour, that money trumps all else and that taxation and Government spending are work of the Devil (or would be if he existed).

    Money is important but really for business it’s all about ownership.

    That’s why public assets are so offensive to business, they believe they should own and control those things especially if they can see a profit.

  9. Fess

    Its a desperate culture war move. The same thinking that had Howard not able to say Sorry.

    This time they are desperately clutching the straw of the date of a radio stations decision on what date to have a music countdown

    Openly interfering with editorial policy to do so.

  11. Ha!
    Jimmy Barnes‏Verified account
    @JimmyBarnes
    9h9 hours ago
    More
    Hey @JoshFrydenberg don’t use my name or my songs to sell your shitty policies. You don’t represent me #portkembla #workingclassman #auspol

  12. Meanwhile, Donald Trump continues to believe he has the power to bend reality itself to his whims. This time, it’s the infamous Access Hollywood tape, which he now says was faked… even though he apologized for the comments he made on it last year.

    President Donald Trump has questioned the authenticity of the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape in which he bragged about being able to grope women, The New York Times reported over the weekend, despite the fact that Trump immediately apologized for his remarks when the video surfaced.

    Trump’s decision to stick with Alabama Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore despite sexual harassment allegations against him is rooted in the President’s own sexual harassment scandal during the 2016 election.

    “He sees the calls for Mr. Moore to step aside as a version of the response to the now-famous ‘Access Hollywood’ tape, in which he boasted about grabbing women’s genitalia, and the flood of groping accusations against him that followed soon after,” the Times reported. “He suggested to a senator earlier this year that it was not authentic, and repeated that claim to an adviser more recently.”

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/11/27/politics/access-hollywood-nyt-denial/index.html

  13. guytaur:

    When a govt starts tinkering around at the margins with meaningless stuff and engaging in culture war tit for tat it’s a clear sign they are terminal.

    Election now!

  14. Confessions

    Yes I think its a national sentiment.

    Even the LNP supporters in the QandA audience were feral last night. Given QandA vets the questions it makes you wonder what was rejected.

    And as for winning culture wars I back Jimmy Barnes not the LNP.

  15. Hanksterchen: Sarah Huckabee Sanders white-splaining away “Pocahontas” is classic emotional abuse, gaslighting, and racism. When someone is hurt by your behavior or actions, you don’t get to decide

  16. Speaking of Trump, he’s just going from strength to strength lately:

    President Donald Trump, during an event at the White House honoring Navajo code talkers Monday, referenced his nickname for Sen. Elizabeth Warren, “Pocahontas,” a label he has long used about the Massachusetts Democrat.

    “I just want to thank you because you are very, very special people. You were here long before any of us were here,” Trump said. “Although, we have a representative in Congress who has been here a long time … longer than you — they call her Pocahontas!”

    He then turned to one of the code talkers behind him, put his left hand on the man’s shoulder and said: “But you know what, I like you. You are special people.”

    Trump did not name Warren.

    The comment, met with silence from event attendees, revives an insult the President has long thrust upon Warren but restated during a high-profile meeting with the Native American war heroes.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/11/27/politics/trump-pocahontas-navajo-code-talkers/index.html

  17. Despite some very large political porkies to the contrary, the Greens Party does not have a comprehensive suite of tested policies.

    They do not have to because Prime Minister Di Natale and a Greens Party government in on the far side of the real world.

    The Greens Party policies do have some aspirational statements, some process promises, and a magic pudding.

    What the Greens Party does have in spades is a holier-than-thou arrogance that would make Pell blush.

    If they did not have Adani, marriage equality, or a Manus, they would have to invent them.

    Because, once the moral outrage cupboard is emptied, they have nothing.

  18. Wil_Anderson: I assume Mitch Fifield is also a member of the Triple M music jury. Can’t wait to hear his opinions on the new Foo Fighters
    Wil_Anderson: I think Mitch Fifield is just mad about all those times he got through to The Request Fest and then Tunny wouldn’t play his request for John Williamson’s True Blue

  19. Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden
    28s29 seconds ago
    Nats bank revolt hits pause: LNP Senator Barry O’Sullivan will NOT introduce his legislation tmw. Has told @SkyNewsAust will consult further

  22. @ Boer war

    So you’re saying if all the policies the Greens supported were implemented, and all policies they don’t support were not implemented, and there was no risk of that situation being undone, there would be no point to the Greens.

    Surely that describes all good parties, the alternative being that they are just there to draw a paycheck.

  23. It appears that at least two of the candidates for Bennelong currently reside in Western Australia: Dr Tony Robinson (Australian Liberty Alliance) and Anthony Fels (non-Custodial Parents Party – Equal Parenting). Try Googling for more details of both.

    Should either of these gentlemen succeed at the by-election, the daily commute from home to electorate office could be interesting, but it will no doubt be helped by Malcolm’s proposed new transport hub.

  24. Asha:

    Trump is like the ageing drunk uncle at christmas that tells sexist and racist jokes and is the only one who laughs at them. Everyone else just waits for him to consume enough alcohol that he passes out.

  26. ‘Voice Endeavour says:
    Tuesday, November 28, 2017 at 9:53 am

    @ Boer war

    So you’re saying if all the policies the Greens supported were implemented, and all policies they don’t support were not implemented, and there was no risk of that situation being undone, there would be no point to the Greens.

    Surely that describes all good parties, the alternative being that they are just there to draw a paycheck.’

    No. What I am saying is that the Greens Party is one big fraud on Greens Party supporters.

  31. Cat

    No rhyme or reason for that.

    michaelkoziol: Labor says it will oppose all the substantial amendments to the Dean Smith marriage bill #auspol

    Good on Labor for standing firm.

    Must be why ABC cut the presser short.

  32. “Mark Dreyfus and Penny Wong cut off, after 2 minutes, by the ABC so they could go to the Weather!?!”

    Truffles on now announcing infrastructure thats probably never going to happen and blaming KK for everything. Desperate times.

  33. Doug Cameron’s SSM speech was inspiring. He has a plain talk way of laying things out that anyone can understand.

    The encapsulation of it was sublime. ‘This is a Bill about Marriage Equality for LGBTIQ couples.

    The Amendments to the Bill are not about Religious Freedom.

    They are about Right of the Religions and the religious to oppress.

  34. a r – Just confirming the ‘reload’ stops working coming up to the end of the first page. It stopped working this time on comment 46.

    A refresh (possibly 2) bought up comment 51 and onwards skipping 47 – 50. Then another refresh filled the gap and after that ‘reload’ works as normal.

  36. What is it about the the Hottest 100 that says it must be on Invasion Day?

    That it has often been dominated by overseas raiders of our music scene which made the choice of day entirely appropriate.

    With the recent performance of Australian artists and the rejection of raiders like Taylor Swift a change of date is appropriate as it does not seem to reflect those values anymore. 🙂

  37. The final chapter in any one particular Turnbull saga involves a folderol of defeat, delay, half-arsed action, acrimony, a shit-fight inside the Liberal Party Room and between the Coalition parties, and a forlorn braggadocio -style announcement of yet another in the seemingly endless string of victories that beset Turnbull.

    My guess is that Turnbull now has to give the Nationals absolutely everything they want on banks, as long as it is not called a Royal Commission and as long as it does not involve open revolt on the Floor.

  38. Truffles on now announcing infrastructure thats probably never going to happen and blaming KK for everything. Desperate times.

    And how much of that $100 Million of taxpayers’ $ will go to Coalition donors to build the bloody thing/Transport Hub!?!

  39. Confessions:

    Trump is like the ageing drunk uncle at christmas that tells sexist and racist jokes and is the only one who laughs at them. Everyone else just waits for him to consume enough alcohol that he passes out.

    His advisers should really be doing all they could to insist Trump stops trying to do this “humor” thing he keeps on hearing about. I mean, he’s never going to listen to them, of course, but any time he attempts a joke it just causes him more trouble.

  41. CTar1 @ #84 Tuesday, November 28th, 2017 – 10:02 am

    a r – Just confirming the ‘reload’ stops working coming up to the end of the first page. It stopped working this time on comment 46.

    A refresh (possibly 2) bought up comment 51 and onwards skipping 47 – 50. Then another refresh filled the gap and after that ‘reload’ works as normal.

    I have noticed this as well, but not just on the first page. It can happen on any page.

  42. Why isn’t Turnbull promising the $100 Million in next year’s Budget!?!

    Why isn’t he promising the work to start after next year’s Budget goes through parliament!?!

    Because we will be going to a House Only election before that in March!

  44. Wow desperate all right. Alexander talking Apartheid history and his role.

    Next question is on One Nation Preferences.
    Alexander replies not to my knowledge.
    There is a heckler

  45. Confessions says: Tuesday, November 28, 2017 at 9:54 am

    Trump is like the ageing drunk uncle at christmas that tells sexist and racist jokes and is the only one who laughs at them. Everyone else just waits for him to consume enough alcohol that he passes out.

    *************************************************

    Trump – according to himself, is a ‘teetotaller’, when it comes to alcohol

    His favourite refreshment is reputed to be *coke* …… : )

  47. GG
    Thanks for posting the great WaPo fake news expose. It says it all about the state of politics in the US. Would make a superb Netflix drama. Should be a compulsory read for a journalists about fact checking

  48. Al Pal,
    I agree about the WaPo story. Seems as though that Republican swamp scum, bottom dweller, James O’Keefe was up to his old tricks.

    I bet that patsy from georgia is on her way back home from New York already, being of no further use to the Dark Side.

  49. lanesainty: These are technical amendments suggested by government departments to ensure bill is in line with other laws. Separate from Brandis’s other amendments & expected to be non-controversial (but who can say in this debate). twitter.com/political_aler…
    political_alert: A-G Senator Brandis has circulated 12 pages of further amendments to Marriage Amendment (Definition and Religious Freedoms) Bill 2017 parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/downl… #marriageequality #auspo
    lhttps://twitter.com/political_alert/status/935287287444729856

  50. Wow desperate all right. Alexander talking Apartheid history and his role.

    Exactly how many Black, or White, South Africans are in the Bennelong electorate anyway!?!

    Also, it was a pretty piss-poor attempt by Turnbull to prove that the Coalition isn’t chockas with White Elitists who love nothing more than dancing with the Red-headed She Devil and her bigoted supporters.

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