Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Overwhelming support for a banking royal commission in the latest Essential poll, which finds Labor maintaining its big lead on voting intention.

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead unchanged at 54-46. Beyond that, I’m a bit tied up at this point to discuss the attitudinal results (chief among which is 64% support for a royal commission into banking), but they are as ever summarised in The Guardian, and will be available in complete form when the full report is published later today, together with the primary vote numbers. I believe we should also have YouGov along later today.

UPDATE. YouGov/Fifty Acres: 53-47 to Labor

The fortnightly YouGov/Fifty Acres poll has Labor’s lead out to a new high of 53-47, but this is due to preferences rather than primary votes: Labor and the Coalition are now tied on 32% of the primary vote, after Labor led 34% to 31% last time, with One Nation steady on 11% and the Greens down a point to 10%. There is also a preferred prime minister question recording a 31% tie, with Malcolm Turnbull rated strong by 21%, weak by 41$ and neither by 30%.

The poll records an interestingly high level of support for constitutional change allowing dual citizens to run for office, with 46% in favour and 40% opposed. Also featured are national approval ratings for the Bennelong by-election candidates, both of whom do very well on both name recognition and personal support (40% favourable of John Alexander and 28% unfavourable; 39% and 29% for Kristina Keneally). Forty-six per cent support new religious protection laws in same sex marriage legislation, with 36% opposed; 55% say the government has a responsibility for the safety of asylum seekers on Manus Island, with 36% for the contrary. The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1034.

The full Essential Research report has the Coalition up a point on the primary vote, to 36%, Labor steady on 38%, the Greens steady on 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. Sixty-four per cent of respondents favoured a banking royal commission, with only 12% opposed. Questions on the economy produced a mixed bag: 33% rate its state as good with 24% for poor, but 39% think it headed on the wrong direction compared with 31% for right. A question about economic issues of concern finds the highest ratings for anything to do with prices, particularly energy prices, and lesser but still substantial concern about income tax and interest rates. Forty-nine per cent supported incentives and subsidies to speed the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, 16% leaving it to the market, and 12% who wanted intervention to slow the process.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

939 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. ItzaDream @ #340 Tuesday, November 28th, 2017 – 4:45 pm

    We had an unfortunate looking Anatomy teacher who went by the name of The Missing Link.

    At Sydney, we had Frank “Necrosis” (Magary) as Chair of Pathology. Used to do lunch time post mortems and hand round the specimens on paper plates – until someone in my brother’s year caught TB from the practice. Morbid humour ruled.

  2. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, November 28, 2017 at 8:36 pm
    My understanding is that if just one of the 27 nations veto a trade agreement, the trade agreement does not get up.
    Currently, that could well be Eire.
    Given the history, it is unlikely that Eire will simply go along with vague promises from the UK that it will all turn out all right in the end.

    That’s about the size of it, Boer. The Irish have every reason to try to upset Brexit and no reason at all to enable it.

  3. Preston Towers@prestontowers
    2h2 hours ago
    It doesn’t bear thinking about what these two would have talked about when the microphones were off.


    Front page of today’s West had a photo of Burke with blaring headline GARDEN GRUB underneath.

  4. rhwombat @ #500 Tuesday, November 28th, 2017 – 8:59 pm

    ItzaDream @ #340 Tuesday, November 28th, 2017 – 4:45 pm

    We had an unfortunate looking Anatomy teacher who went by the name of The Missing Link.

    At Sydney, we had Frank “Necrosis” (Magary) as Chair of Pathology. Used to do lunch time post mortems and hand round the specimens on paper plates – until someone in my brother’s year caught TB from the practice. Morbid humour ruled.

    wombat, that’s pretty gross, even by med school standards. Twas Sydney; you we’re behind me (65-70 incl, DC’s year). Six to a body in Anderson Stuart. All I remember of Pathology was going bug eyed looking down a microscope and sublimating the mystery of it all into colouring in.

  5. From Richo in The Oz:

    ‘On Tuesday evening last week, 300 of Canberra’s well-off gathered at that wonderful living tribute to the courage of our forebears, the Australian War Memorial.

    This dinner must have raised a dollar or two given tickets cost $140 and corporate ­tables cost anything from $1200-$10,000. I have still not discovered where the proceeds went, but for Barnaby Joyce this evening has presented questions about his judgment.

    His biggest gaffe — deciding to remain in his ministerial job with the big bucks and the shiny limousine while under a cloud over dual citizenship — was an absolute shocker. This incident does not top it, but runs it an uncomfortable second.

    Joyce is arguably the best retail politician in the land. He has created a world around him where he is the champion of the farmers who have been forgotten by the city folk and are our most downtrodden citizens. His political judgment had been first class up to the past few months, but now he appears to have lost it.

    Apparently, it was Gina Rinehart’s idea to hold a dinner to celebrate Australia’s agricultural success. Nothing wrong with that, but why hold a black-tie do in Canberra, of all places. You could not get a gathering that looked less like a group of farmers. Joyce may as well have been in a foreign land.

    The Department of Agriculture was the sponsor of the event. It handed over $60,000 of taxpayers’ money to fund the celebration on a day that suited Rinehart’s diary. The money was channelled through the National Farmers Federation, which undertook to roll out a social-media strategy, videos, events, balloons and T-shirts. There is precious little evidence that any of the above actually ever occurred.

    Joyce claims that he had no idea he was about to receive a $40,000 gift for doing a job for which he was already well paid. Then came a staggering slip which Joyce should take a long time to live down. Beaming with pride after being presented with the $40,000 cheque from Rinehart, our Barnaby announced he would spend it on his farm.

    That he backtracked later serves to mitigate nothing. The king of retail politics had by this time lost the plot.

  6. max @ #452 Tuesday, November 28th, 2017 – 7:28 pm

    Attempting to persuade an IS soldier that the Caliphate is not inevitable or that murdering infidels isn’t the path to Paradise is a pointless exercise. Maybe years of deradicalisation will do it, but conversations based on pointing out flawed logic or appealing to higher values are futile. Thus it is, attempting to engage in conversation with those who have a pathological hatred of the Greens.

    Just as it is impossible to try and cause inane Greens’ supporters to give up dissing Labor.

  7. Ugh! Already election ads on the TV for the state election here (SA).

    Keep your pants on! It’s not until March! Can we at least get through Christmas first?

  8. Meanwhile, the LNP are divided and ineffective.

    The Liberal National Coalition are a bunch of clowns. They make Fawlty Towers look like an efficient and smoothly functioning operation. They make the Keystone Cops look like a paradigm of organisation and effective policing.

  9. Richo repeats of oft used line about Joyce’s abilities as a retail politician, whatever that means.

    Well Joyce might be a hit in some parts of the Nats heartland but there are plenty of farmers whose support for anti-mining and anti-fracking groups suggest they won’t be buying what he is selling.

    And I suspect the cover-up of the water theft in the Murray-Darling basin which appears to be have been green-lighted at high levels of government may cause some problems for Joyce and the big Nat donors once the SA Royal Commission is up and running.

  10. Richard Di Natale‏Verified account @RichardDiNatale
    7h7 hours ago
    I’ve written to the Presiding Officers of the House and Senate asking them to revoke permission for Milo Yiannopoulos to attend and speak at Parliament House. We should not be granting a forum to someone who makes a living by peddling racist, sexist and abusive views.

    As Bill Maher showed, the best way to silence these idiots is to give them the floor and let them argue their viewpoint in the face of logical, rational objection. Invariably they always fail and end up looking like the craven, desperate media whores they are.

  11. It’s been alleged that Barnaby’s daughter unlawfully took his staff car, speakers and all, and drove it around Tamworth announcing unpleasant things about him.

    If she was charged and pleaded guilty, I’d gladly pay to hear her plea in mitigation.

  12. With all due respect to Bill Maher, Confessions, Di Natale has been given that opportunity himself, but it still hasn’t shut him up.

  13. All this stuff about Barnaby is only allegations.

    The one about his daughter taking the car and saying not to vote for him. Surely we would have heard more about this yet all we have is whispered hushes here and there. It makes it hard to believe this actually occured. Tamworth is 30,000 people. Heck the local papers there dont seem to have it. Seems fishy without corroborating sources.

  14. Another thing from Rowe’s cartoon I didn’t see mentioned are the other two unopened larvae, indicating more grubs to be exposed.

    Joyce will win but I wonder about the swing.

    Also in the scenario Joyce is returned but Alexander isn’t, will the Nats demand another position, e.g. a parliamentary secretary ?

  15. @Steve777….I wonder, did he die of shame…?

    I will never forgive Abbott for what he did to a PM of this country when her father passed away…shameful.

  16. @Fulvio Sammit….. I know we are.
    But I won’t withdraw or apologise.
    I have nothing but contempt for Abbott. His father may well have been a decent human being the same as Julia Gillards dad, but HE ( Abbott ) used the death of a parent for HIS own political gain. To try to mentally hurt,injure and belittle. It was disgusting then and nothing has changed my mind since.

  17. Barnaby will no doubt win NE but the question of his family circumstances will remain.
    Had to laugh at the The Northern Daily Leader’s searching interview of him on the campaign trail today , “why did you turn down Gina Rinehart’s $40,000 yesterday” when the question should have been you accepted the money initially and were going to spend it on your farm, what happened in 12 hours ? No wonder they are his mouthpiece of choice.

  18. I don’t know if this averts the problem the Irish Govt is facing or not.

    Irish deputy prime minister Frances Fitzgerald is set to resign, according to Irish broadcaster RTÉ.

    The reports are yet to be confirmed by the Irish government.

    Ms Fitzgerald had been at the centre of a controversy which could have resulted in a snap general election.

  19. Re a certain high profile politician, there have been media reports, but not in the mainstream, for example this which I recall being linked here recently:,10942

    There are libel laws in this country. They mainly serve to protect the venal, the stupid and the thuggish among the rich and powerful.

    Like the rest of us, the rich and powerful deserve the truth, nothing more, nothing less.

  20. Confession: Sure, let him spout his idiocy, but not in our Parliament, thanks.

    Parliament has had war criminals and national leaders with highly dubious records on human rights address it in the past, yet you want to shy away from hearing from an idiotic pipsqueak who hasn’t the balls to defend his views when push comes to shove?

  21. I posted my condolences to the Abbott family here last week.

    As far as Tony is concerned, the man who gave PMJG no quarter in her grief for her own father, it is enough that I write nothing, instead of that which he deserves.

  22. Milo thrives on being banned from places

    Exactly. So give the moron his platform and watch as he makes a fool of himself and his speech disappears into the annals of nowheresville because he won’t have the publicity he craves to make others notice that he’s actually speaking.

  23. UK BREXIT: Some workers and denizens of the City of London will consider this no bad thing:

    (Reuters) – The number of new office developments in London is falling as higher construction costs and uncertainty over Brexit lead builders to delay new schemes, a closely-watched industry survey showed on Tuesday.

    Construction began on 25 new central London office schemes in the six months ended Sept. 30, less than the 28 new construction projects started in the preceding six months, the London Office Crane Survey by Deloitte Real Estate showed.

    The projects started over the surveyed period would add 1.8 million square feet into the development pipeline, the lowest new amount in more than three years, the survey added.

  24. Sugar @ 11.11…

    Yup, really good survey there. If anything is missing it is the critique of Patriarchy….the feminist review …the view from behind the drapes

  25. Confessions I disagree, to have him speak at Parliament House is humiliating to our nation. He should never have been invited. It was a tremendous error of judgment

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