Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential Research polls on early election prospects and the next stage of same-sex marriage, and records little change on voting intention.

The latest Essential Research result appears to have Labor leading 54-46 (it says 52% to 46% in the report, but it also says there is no change). GhostWhoVotes was somehow able to relate that the primary votes were Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 8% (steady). The poll finds 47% saying the government should run its full term, compared with 37% who favour an early election. Thirty-six per cent said they expected Labor to win the next election, compared with 20% for the Coalition, and 18% for a hung parliament.

The poll also found 63% of the view that marriage celebrants should be allowed to refuse to officiate at same-sex weddings, with 27% opposed. Other related issues were finely balanced: 48% opposed the notion that businesses should have the right to refuse service to gay weddings, while 43% supported it; 42% supported parents being able to remove their children from classes that did not reflect a traditional view of marriage, while 44% were opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,860 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 29 of 38
1 28 29 30 38
  1. Elau, it may come as a considerable surprise to you, given my Anglo Saxon name, that I actually come from an ethnic background. One of those groups that Bushfire Bill sometimes refers to in his posts as wogs and dagos, intending no offence, and of course non taken.

    But, getting to the point, ethnics who arrived here immediately post war, especially non English speakers, eventually found themselves in a time warp; their family remaining in Europe evolved and adapted to a changing world, yet they continued to exist in small, closed, interdependent communities where their social, political and ethical mores remained in Mussolini’s Italy, Franco’s Spain or Tito’s Yugoslavia.

    To an extent, that Pommy migrant Abbot’s thinking also remained in a similar time warp, as did that of Dutch immigrant Bolt.

    And true blue dinky die Aussie bush pigs, of limited intelligence and no courage to experience life and expand their horizons, remained in their own time warp to this very day, one set in Menzie’s 1950’s, where change was a dirty word, Labor were a pack of Commie bastards, Labor had inflicted on them the misery and austerity of the war, and the Liberal Party were now there to protect them and keep them feeling warm, fuzzy, and mildly euphoric.

    And these very people are the Bolt community of friends and disciples who follow his every thought and vaccilate their allegiances between Abbot, Turnbull or who ever else Bolt annoints to lead them gently back to the simpler days of 1953.

  2. If there is a new whole-Senate election in Tasmania, the question of whether that resets Tasmania`s Senate terms them likely arises.

  3. I think the main purpose is for smart infrastructure. But theoretically you could probably use some traffic lights to do fixed wireless or public WiFi over an area.

  4. Under the new “truth in advertising” NBN plans, unless you pay for the top-tier “25-100/1-40” plan, “8/1” is the best you can expect.

    If you have a “20/1” ADSL2+ connection, you will have to pay more to stay where you are.

    For the shitty copper brigade, “8/1” better than nothing – but far worse than FTTP would’ve delivered.

    WTF?!

  5. Bludgertrack is showing a 1.4% swing against the fed government in NSW within a nationwide swing of 4.3. I’m guessing the Keneally play is about addressing that as much as it is about Bennelong. Labor can’t feel confident about the next election until they improve their vote in NSW.


  6. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Thursday, November 23, 2017 at 1:19 am

    I’ve been spending time reading the comments on Bolts blog lately, now that the thrall of the engagements between DTT and … oh …, everyone, has eased off.

    Do yourselves a favour, have a look, it’s better, funnier, and more manic than a movie starring Chevy Chase, Jim Cary and Larry, Curly and Moe.

    Mate you have done well; I’ve tried to read a Bolt column several times. Life is too short to read that shit. Anyone who appreciates one of Bolt columns has to be suffering early stage dementia.

  7. Elau, I admire your perseverance but engaging with the ALP jihadi faction in the subject of the Greens- where routine political activity becomes a sign of delusion and dishonesty if a Greens person does it, but is a sign of tactical brilliance if it’s on the ALP side – is a waste of time. You may as well post on Bolt’s blog. You’ll find no shortage of posters of similar temperament to the jihadis there. Fortunately they’re a small faction and by scrolling past PB’s Islamic State equivalent I find I can enjoy the contributions of the other excellent posters here.

  8. Fulvio:’To an extent, that Pommy migrant Abbot’s thinking also remained in a similar time warp, as did that of Dutch immigrant Bolt.’

    Bolt is not a Dutch immigrant.

  9. max @ #1408 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 6:12 am

    Elau, I admire your perseverance but engaging with the ALP jihadi faction in the subject of the Greens- where routine political activity becomes a sign of delusion and dishonesty if a Greens person does it, but is a sign of tactical brilliance if it’s on the ALP side – is a waste of time. You may as well post on Bolt’s blog. You’ll find no shortage of posters of similar temperament to the jihadis there. Fortunately they’re a small faction and by scrolling past PB’s Islamic State equivalent I find I can enjoy the contributions of the other excellent posters here.

    Well, if you want an example of the smug, small-minded, junior high school-level elitism and condescension that infects The Greens like the mould running through Gorgonzola cheese, you’ve got it all in one paragraph here.

    No wonder there’s so much internecine warfare in The Greens. What a blinkered and bitchy bunch of no marks.

    Oh well, while Labor gets on with running the country for the many, not the few, The Greens and their clique of narrow-minded supporters like max can continue to come here and flatter the likes of their cut and paste queen. And their seeming attempt at a hostile takeover of PB will succeed just as much as pegasus and rex have here, ie not at all. Quantity isn’t quality, guys. The fleas on the dog doesn’t make you the big dog.

  10. Nikki Savva with a thoughtful piece in the SmearStralian, identfying that in fact Bill Shorten is getting an easy run…. and proceeds to worry about a split in the Liberal Party, with the next generation of leaders named.

    “Everywhere he turns, someone is waiting to give Shorten a leg-up. First the leg-up from the Nats on banks, second the leg-up from the journos, then a third leg-up from Christopher Pyne announcing a new sitting schedule for the lower house, which scored a remarkable trifecta of own goals with a single strike.

    It fortified the narrative of Canberra chaos, fed the perception that Malcolm Turnbull was frightened of his own backbenchers, and clouded his attempt to shift the focus back on to the economy with a pledge to cut personal income tax cuts.

    Labor probably would have succeeded in spinning it as a clever tactical ploy, dismissing claims of trashing democracy as trash talk, but in the fetid atmosphere ­surrounding conservative politics it was another debacle.

    Shorten has shifted leftward to counter the Greens, without too many internal challenges and with some temporary success in federal inner-city seats. Coalition MPs, with threats of floor crossings and defections, have found blackmail is a handy tool to force Turnbull to bend to their will.

    ……….

    If any Liberal in the aptly named coward’s castle, or a Nat who fancies himself a modern-day John McEwen capable of vetoing liberal leaders, defects to destroy Turnbull, it would guarantee ­defeat and precipitate a fracture. Hopes of a Tony Abbott revival, because he is a better campaigner in general and on conservative values in particular, have been shattered by the same-sex ­marriage vote, and nowhere more so than in his own back yard.

    What then? It is not too far-fetched to imagine Andrew Hastie as leader of the new conservative liberal party and Tim Wilson as leader of the new progressive ­liberal party. But that’s a long way off and will depend on who is left to pick up the ­fragments.”

  11. And in really depressing news (while The Greens continue to faff about attacking Labor but talk about forming a Coalition government with these guys-which kinda blows all their sanctimony clean out of the water):

    Ministers meet with top Chinese official as Adani finance looms

    Cole Latimer Kirsty Needham

    A key executive from China’s top economic regulator has met with Australian government ministers in Queensland as speculation mounts Chinese companies are poised to invest in Adani’s massive coal and rail project in Queensland.

    The deputy head of the Chinese economic regulator, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Ning Jizhe, met with Trade Minister Steve Ciobo and Northern Development Minister Matt Canavan in Cairns on Monday to discuss investment co-operation in northern Australia, Chinese media reported.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/ministers-meet-with-top-chinese-official-as-adani-finance-looms-20171121-gzqcai.html

    I don’t remember seeing any Greens waving their cute little ‘Stop Adani’ signs in Cairns on Monday. Too busy gloating on PB about winning an inner city Melbourne seat in the Victorian State parliament to do any real advocacy.

  12. Can someone inform Niki Savva that it is not ‘going further Left’ to seek to counter the failed Neoliberalism project!?! It’s just the right and proper thing to do.

  13. phoenixRED @ #1414 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 6:50 am

    White House insists Trump will have a ‘full schedule’ — then he shows up at the golf course

    President Donald Trump on Wednesday morning insisted that he would spend his day taking meetings and working phones — but just hours later, he drove to one of his own Florida golf courses.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/white-house-insists-trump-will-have-a-full-schedule-then-he-shows-up-at-the-golf-course/

    Wow! In the middle of the week now as well!

    Trump probably thinks he’s had a good day destroying the Net Neutrality rules in America. Job. Done.

  14. Facebook to inform users of content they saw from Russian trolls

    Facebook announced Wednesday it will unveil a tool by year’s end allowing users to learn of any Facebook or Instagram contact they may have had with Russian internet trolls leading up to and following the 2016 U.S. election.

    The social media giant “will soon be creating a portal to enable people on Facebook to learn which of the Internet Research Agency Facebook Pages or Instagram accounts they may have liked or followed between January 2015 and August 2017,” – The Internet Research Agency is a St. Petersburg, Russia-based firm with ties to that country’s government.

    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/22/facebook-russia-internet-trolls-258754

  15. The Adani lobbyist and Labor insider who smoothed the way for the mega mine
    (But of course Labor is the way to go if you want to save the Reef. Labor insiders have such great environmental credentials – unlike the Party of Au Pair Exploitation.
    You know it makes sense..)

    Headed by Cameron Milner, a former Queensland ALP state secretary, the lobbying firm Next Level had helped Adani get pretty much everything it wanted — through an extraordinarily intense campaign.

    Adani began using Next Level to provide lobbying services in Queensland in February 2015.

    Alongside Mr Milner, the firm features David Moore, formerly chief of staff to the LNP premier Campbell Newman.


    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-23/the-labor-insider-who-lobbied-for-adani/9181648

  16. Australian state and federal energy ministers have been urged to set a more ambitious emissions reduction target in any potential national energy guarantee in an open letter signed by prominent pro-renewables business leaders, academics, economists and investors.

    The letter comes ahead of a Commonwealth Heads of Government (Coag) energy council meeting on Friday, in which the energy ministers will meet to discuss the federal government’s proposed national energy guarantee and consider commissioning further work on the proposal.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/23/energy-ministers-urged-to-avoid-unacceptable-emissions-reduction-target?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  17. Also for the sanctimonious anti-Greens prattlers.
    Cameron Milner, the parasite featured in the above article, spent 18 months as Shorten’s chief of staff. Not a great recommendation for Shorten’s environmental credentials. Most people select a chief of staff with similar values.

  18. Trog, I can only assume you are writing that tongue in cheek rather than through ignorance. Anyone with half a brain would understand BW’s explanation of how the Greens have been detrimental to the environment since(and because of) its formation.

  19. Zoomster, I don’t know why he is going to the trouble. He is only going up 1800 meters which is roughly the same altitude as Mount Hotham. Their are plenty of mountains in California far higher where you can get a similar view to what he would get from his rocket. Still ‘flat earthers’ are not noted for their intellectual rigor.

  20. This Chinese money deal is going to be a very real problem for Labor in SEQ. Essentially the ALP line is that Greeenies need not worry because the project would not get funding. Labor need to look to be jobs focused and keep those ON voters happy. But relax kiddies there will be no money for Adani.

    This has now fallen in a heap.

  21. zoomster @ #1434 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 7:34 am

    Now here’s a project to get behind!!

    http://www.sciencealert.com/man-launch-himself-in-homemade-rocket-to-prove-earth-is-flat

    Now there’s the sort of guy who would make a superb Scientist in Chief for a PHON government.

    I hope my son-in-law (the mad one) never hears of this project. Even playing the “black spot” card may not have the power to quell his enthusiasm over this ambitious project.

  22. PeeBee
    If you believe Boerwar, then support for Adani is just a cunning Labor plan to save the reef.
    Clueless.
    Boerwar also seems to believe that without the neo-liberals, the economy will collapse.

  23. Things comments on this site rarely delivers

    Unbiased commentary on the Liberal Party

    Unbiased commentary on the National Party

    Unbiased commentary on the Labor Party

    Unbiased commentary on The Greens

    Unbiased commentary on all the politicial parties.

  24. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Wroe previews the foreign policy White Paper.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-needs-to-reach-out-to-the-us-and-other-asian-nations-to-keep-the-peace-blueprint-warns-20171122-gzqxwz.html
    Pre-emptively Penny Wong says Australia must work with US ‘as it is now, not as it might once have been.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/22/australia-must-pursue-our-own-goals-in-us-relationship-says-wong
    Mark Kenny on the palpable leadership rumbles inside the corridors of power.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/discipline-has-left-the-building-and-malcolm-turnbull-is-in-danger-of-leaving-too-20171122-gzqmab.html
    James Campbell says the leadership drums are beating louder. Google.
    /news/opinion/james-campbell/james-campbell-leadership-jungle-drums-beating-louder/news-story/06ae8943843815bf4f6f9d507721d179
    James Massola says that cabinet members are saying that the leak about consideration of a banking RC was designed to damage Malcolm Turnbull, Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton and create chaos in the government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/a-strike-against-malcolm-turnbull-scott-morrison-and-peter-dutton-cabinet-furious-after-leak-20171122-gzqq3v.html
    Nicky Savva says the sniping is helping the Libs to unravel. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/niki-savva/shorten-gets-a-legup-again-from-conservatives/news-story/6ef1b5fdf6173c733d819d259a1c4039
    John Warhurst has a good look at same-sex marriage, state elections and the future of party politics.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/samesex-marriage-state-elections-and-the-future-of-party-politics-20171122-gzqidv.html
    The enormous confidence that the Turnbull Government is placing in the capacity of the High Court to decide whether MPs have violated Section 44 is questionable The “black letter” approach that the conservative Court has adopted looks like a most unwise decision.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/government-by-seven-high-court-judges-and-the-black-letter-of-the-constitution,10955
    Greg Jericho tells us to ignore Turnbull’s rhetoric on income tax cuts until he explains how he’ll pay for them.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/nov/23/ignore-turnbulls-rhetoric-on-income-tax-cuts-until-he-explains-how-hell-pay-for-them
    Elizabeth Knight uses the opening of Amazon to get stuck into plumbing supplier Reece.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/please-amazon-can-you-start-with-bathroom-supplies-20171122-gzqob1.html

  25. Section 2 . . .

    Patrick Hatch tells us how Amazon will change the way we shop.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/how-amazon-will-change-the-way-we-shop-20171122-gzqn40.html
    Penalty rates cuts may not be enough to offset the Amazon effect on retailers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/amazon-will-eat-up-any-benefit-to-local-retailers-of-penaltyrate-cuts-20171025-gz87wj.html
    Dave Donovan writes that a secretive and allegedly corrupt Gold Coast City Council is riding roughshod over citizens and the City Plan in a frenetic drive for developer dollars.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/tom-tates-developer-dollar-hunt-is-building-an-unlivable-gold-coast,10958
    Queensland Labor has been accused of plotting to reintroduce the controversial Safe Schools program. So? Google.
    /national-affairs/queensland-election/labor-plotting-to-revive-safe-schools-plan-says-christian-lobby/news-story/4b04d35a57a6a1b571b325b2f0daa4de
    And The Conversation has fact checked PHON’s claim that the Safe Schools program contains “highly explicit material”.
    https://theconversation.com/factcheck-does-the-safe-schools-program-contain-highly-explicit-material-87437
    Trump began the day before Thanksgiving in the US on Twitter, calling out those who he claims have not, in fact, given him their proper thanks. The man has serious problems.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/ungrateful-fool-trump-continues-his-war-of-words-with-basketball-dad-20171122-gzr1y8.html
    Michelle Grattan on NXT’s citizenship woes.
    https://theconversation.com/citizenship-crisis-claims-nick-xenophon-teams-kakoschke-moore-87935
    The ACCC gives finder.com a well-deserved serve.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/findercomau-misled-and-deceived-users-over-roughly-65000-comparisons-claim-accc-20171122-gzqncy.html
    Frydenberg’s energy policy is in for a rough ride from the states. SA is furious for a start.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/worst-fears-states-prepare-to-highlight-the-negatives-in-turnbulls-energy-plan-20171122-gzqphl.html
    Meanwhile Peter Hannam discloses that the policy’s economic modelling shows that the policy is a dressed up emissions intensity scheme after all.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/flaying-a-neg-modelling-points-to-an-emissions-intensity-scheme-after-all-20171121-gzqbl3.html

  26. Section 3 . . .

    Morrison has claimed the government’s new energy policy will knock $400 a year off your electricity bills – a saving four times greater than the government initially predicted in October. But closer analysis of the Treasurer’s claim shows it is wildly inaccurate.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2017/11/22/scott-morrison-wild-claims-energy-bills-debunked/
    Just two days into a heatwave and Victoria’s power grid is on the edge. Of course the unreliability of ageing coal fired power stations has nothing to do with it.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/power-plant-failures-push-states-energy-grid-close-to-the-edge-in-november-heat-20171122-gzqw3l.html
    John Quiggin writes that the Queensland election’s renewables versus coal debate isn’t about jobs. Rather it’s a culture war he says.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/22/the-queensland-elections-renewables-versus-coal-debate-isnt-about-jobs-its-a-culture-war
    A public boycott of Streets ice-cream has ended after the company’s employees forged an agreement for better working conditions with its multinational owners.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/workplace-relations/streets-factory-workers-vote-to-end-public-icecream-boycott-20171122-gzr0gf.html
    Peter Martin unveils the fake economics cookbook: how to make bad transport projects look good.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-fake-economics-cookbook-how-to-make-bad-transport-projects-look-good-20171121-gzqd3x.html
    The SMH editorial looks at how tolling might be the way of the future for NSW vehicular transport.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/-rego-rebate-is-good-only-as-a-first-step-20171122-gzqt7q.html
    The Victorian Liberal Party has followed through on a threat to launch legal action against the directors of the Cormack Foundation in a bid to seek control of a $70 million pot of electoral funding. Knock yourself out fellas!
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/liberal-partys-victorian-branch-takes-biggest-donor-to-court-20171122-gzqzv1.html
    Steph Peatling says that a controversial trial of drug testing welfare recipients will almost certainly be postponed after the Turnbull government conceded it was unlikely to win sufficient support from the Senate crossbench.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-postpones-controversial-drug-trial-for-welfare-recipients-20171122-gzqm1j.html

  27. Section 4 . . .

    Very conservative voluntary euthanasia laws finally get through one house of the Victorian Parliament. Eat your heart out Kevin Andrews!
    http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/historic-euthanasia-laws-pass-victorian-upper-house-20171121-gzqc8n.html
    And a South Australian government minister who watched his mother “slowly waste away” says he’s determined for South Australia to follow Victoria’s lead and legalise voluntary euthanasia. Google.
    /news/south-australia/after-victoria-sa-government-minister-kyam-maher-vows-to-pass-voluntary-euthanasia-legislation/news-story/9dd97d8728a68e57a6917211e4038e6b
    What Keating and Abbott don’t understand about voluntary euthanasia.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/11/22/what-paul-keating-and-tony-abbott-misunderstand-about-voluntary-euthanasia_a_23285040/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    A snap inquiry into religious freedom has failed to deter conservative MPs from plans to amend same-sex marriage legislation to beef up exemptions for the faithful, as divisions on the government’s right flank continue to mount. When is Australia going to say enough is enough?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/philip-ruddock-review-into-religious-freedom-fails-to-deter-conservative-mps-from-attack-on-marriage-bill-20171121-gzqbt2.html
    A Marriage Alliance petition urging MPs to take their “hands off our freedoms” shares signatories’ names, emails and addresses with politicians without alerting users it will supply all those details.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/22/petition-to-pressure-mps-for-religious-freedoms-shares-users-data-without-consent
    Australia’s race discrimination commissioner, Tim Soutphommasane, says the high no vote in western Sydney in last week’s historic same-sex marriage postal survey reflects religious observance rather than ethnicity, and he has warned against an outbreak of crass, cultural stereotyping.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/23/marriage-equality-no-vote-reflects-religion-not-ethnicity-says-tim-soutphommasane
    I wonder why this Catholic school is so sensitive about this statue.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/sa/2017/11/22/catholic-school-apologises-suggestive-statue/

  28. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe can be very disturbing at times!

    David Pope has had enough of this government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Andrew Dyson with Turnbull’s strategy.

    A beauty from John Shakespeare!

    Mark David piles into the editorial policy of News Ltd.

    Paul Zanetti tells Turnbull to keep baling.

    A trio from Matt Golding. I love the one on voluntary euthanasia.



    Roy Taylor’s contribution to the survey outcome.

    Sean Leahy on the TV and radio pre-poll political blackout.

    Sean Leahy with some late handicapping for the Queensland election race.

    Two more on that poll from Leahy.


    Will robots replace politicians asks Alan Moir.

    Jon Kudelka takes issue with the money spent by governments on consultants.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/fe6edeb244c76f8c92c40e0676fd73f5

Comments Page 29 of 38
1 28 29 30 38

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *