Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,696 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal”

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  1. On the Melbourne public housing fiasco, I think it is more accurate to say that the mediocre is the enemy of the good. Labor’s housing policy objectives are good, but execution has been distinctly mediocre. Greed (getting more public housing for no public cost) led to planning for unrealistically high densities.

    Somebody needs to educate Labor housing policy “experts”. We need medium density projects such as France and Germany do very well, not high rise housing a la London Grenfell. That should only be in the CBD.

  2. I know seat polling is not always reliable but those swings of almost 10% and 7% arent good for the Coalition. Are they beyond margin of error?

    From memory there is almost always a swing of 5% against governments at byelections though the last s44 byelection saw a strong 5% swing to the booted candidate (Jacky Kelly in 1996).

    I wonder how much is local factors or the continual sliding downwards of the federal government. Surely people know that booting Alexander and installing Keneally is a mortal Turnbull wound and probably close to the Govt coming apart. Though a byelection is a good chance to get local issues talked about on the federal level.

  3. Nobody but the Greens probably wants to deal with this policy issue now, but Australia is so far behind the western world on energy and climate change policy it is embarrassing. SA has proven you can replace the coal industry while creating jobs. WA and Victoria should do the same. Qld and NSW will find the change politically harder, but anyone who thinks they will get another 20-30 years of large scale production and export without turning us into a pariah is dreaming.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/16/political-watershed-as-19-countries-pledge-to-phase-out-coal?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=252691&subid=11549147&CMP=ema_632

  5. Getting KK to run in Bennelong was a masterstroke, even the MSM figured that out.

    The few on PB who didn’t see it obviously don’t live in NSW or haven’t seen much of KK.

  6. phoenixRED @ #97 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 3:46 am

    C@tmomma says: Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 1:06 am

    Anyway, it’s been a loooong day for me and so now I am off to bed. I’m sure it’s going to be a bumper crop from BK and Phoenix Red tomorrow! See you on the upside

    ************************************************

    C@tmomma – Thank you yesterday for your wisdom and kind words of encouragement and support.

    Add my thanks for the work you do to curating the US politics news. Personally, I like that you post a paragraph or two from the link – I simply don’t have the to follow every link I want to and having that first paragraph is handy. Try to ignore the haters, which I know is hard.

    If you could only do something about my sense of foreboding that Trump will be with us for the full length of his term, and worse, I believe stands a reasonable prospect of winning a second term.

  7. Thanks Ctar1
    Yes. I am explaining why i use the two blogs. I do not know the inner workings.

    I assume like all new groups it was the Forming Storming Norming process.

    I am sorry you had that experience C@t.

  8. Socrates @ #151 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 9:18 am

    Nobody but the Greens probably wants to deal with this policy issue now, but Australia is so far behind the western world on energy and climate change policy it is embarrassing.

    I’m afraid it is the Greens energy policy that is so far behind it is embarrassing. Clearly they don’t care that it is based on science that is decades out of date.

  9. P1

    The Greens are closer to the truth than you are.

    As the article you are ignoring points out. Coal is dead. Major countries Australia exports to have committed to eliminating coal as an energy source.

    This is reality and fact. Not spin.

  10. Socrates,

    Australia will turn off coal faster under the ALP than the L-NP, and the ALP will do more to help people who are displaced by that.

    The biggest legislative contribution from the Greens in recent years is what made the ETS so easy for Abbott to destroy.

  11. Kevjohnno @8:57 – you are right – I misread it. I don’t know what Billie is on about. Probably not worth worrying about.

    Raaraa – Muslim populations are concentrated locally in parts of Sydney’s West, e.g. 21% in the Canterbury-Bankstown local Goverment area. These parts of Sydney have large numbers of conservative immigrant Christians such as Maronites and Catholics of Vietnamese heritage. Electorates overlapping with this area include Banks, Blaxland and Watson.

  12. mikehilliard

    I used to not think so, but then (years ago) I googled myself and came up with comments under my name made over a decade ago within a particular context, which read very strangely in retrospect!

    People who Know Who I Am can obviously still google zoomster and embarrass the hell out of me, but it’s a further degree of separation.

    Prospective employers do google people, also.

  13. Question

    Labor signed up to that legislation. The reason it was so easy to Abbott to destroy is lies were the winner not facts.

    As we have seen in the long term power prices went up not down when the carbon price was abolished. For the very reasons that the Greens The Conservative Cross Bench members and Labor argued.

    Don’t blame any of the people out of the Gillard era that voted for sensible policy.

    Blame the wrecker Abbott and Minchin for rejecting sensible fact and science based policy.

    Doing anything else is rewriting history.

  16. I know an election is on and that Labor is feeling vulnerable to the Greens in Northcote.

    However do not delude yourself to the reality. Greens are not pure pursuing the perfect. See their position on SSM cross platform legislation.

    See them compromise when they are in government.

    Some reality is good rather than election time spin

  19. Guytaur, I have a lot of friends who are GRN. The reason I vote ALP is because I see the wide expanse between 10% and the 51% you need to change legislation. It has taken a while for my Green friends to half accept my views on democracy. They tend to place their opinions above the reality of democracy.

  20. zoomster @ #160 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 9:41 am

    mikehilliard

    I used to not think so, but then (years ago) I googled myself and came up with comments under my name made over a decade ago within a particular context, which read very strangely in retrospect!

    People who Know Who I Am can obviously still google zoomster and embarrass the hell out of me, but it’s a further degree of separation.

    Prospective employers do google people, also.

    The “Gentleman” who outed you in such a spectacular, cutting, superior fashion will be proud, proud in his humiity to have made such a coup; worth of any warrior, brave and true – in the old fashioned “Spirit of the Anzacs” fashion.

    You, for your part will be, dare I say it, delighted to have been of assistance in your civic minded way – helping this ambitious person to have scaled the heights, snatched the brass ring of immortality and, at last, achieved a life time goal.

    I wrote a little silly piece, purporting to be from a one time burglar, bank robber, can man and LNP voter. I think your peace is a little better phrased. I deleted my rubbish.

    Overcast overnight in Newcastle. No meteors for KayJay. 😢

  21. guytaur @ #157 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 9:36 am

    As the article you are ignoring points out. Coal is dead. Major countries Australia exports to have committed to eliminating coal as an energy source.

    This is reality and fact. Not spin.

    Have you ever seen a post from me supporting coal in any way, shape or form? On the contrary, I am one of the few here that points out how many of the supposedly “renewable friendly” schemes seem to result in us continuing to burn coal for decades longer than we need to.

    Funny about that, isn’t it?

  22. I googled Steve777 and found several imposters, including pictures I’ve taken, posts I’ve made, posts on sites I don’t frequent and pictures of people who aren’t me (including one of Peter Dutton – I’m definitely not him).

    These other Steves probably did what I did, used their first name and added an easy to remember suffix.

  23. By Jingo the SmearStralian is in full smear mode today. Targets?

    Bill Shorten and his little mate Eddie Obeid
    Kristina Keneally
    Bob Hawke
    Malcolm Turnbull
    Richard di Natalie
    Muslims in Western Sydney

    Who is the saviour from threat to angry old man white picket fence hegemony?

    Tony Abbott

  24. Question

    You can argue to the cows come home the advantage of major parties.

    However facts are the votes for minority parties are going up.

    The ACT without the media hyping up the evils of minority government are getting on with the job.

    Lots of Europe shows how minor parties are great for democracy. The fact that more views are not represented is a failure of our electoral system not being as democratic as those in Europe. Under such a system there would have been times when the Liberals or Nationals would have seen advantage to forming government with Labor rather than their forced wedding they have now.

    We would be a very different country. To our advantage really I think.

    Of course that means we have a danger of seeing more of One Nation however this is the reality not the spin.

    At the moment more people are voting for Labor to be sure to get rid of the extreme right.

  27. I think GRNs are best when they behave like advocates for the left. For example, I think the ALP will have a living wage policy at some stage.

    They are at their worst when they give conservative policy a foot-up or pretend the ALP are “no different”.

  28. Cross-posting from Northcote thread….

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/dogs-of-war-labor-unleashes-on-greens-in-northcote-20171117-gzndeq.html

    The Andrews’ government has done a back room deal with the Animal Justice Party in a bid to secure a Labor victory in Saturday’s crunch byelection in Northcote.

    Animal Justice confirmed on Friday it had agreed to direct preferences to Labor in return for more than $500,000 of taxpayer-funded spending on the micro party’s favoured causes.

    Preferences could be decisive in the vote and Labor has brokered a separate deal with another minor party, the Liberal Democrats, who will also direct preferences away from the ALP’s Greens opponents.

    The arrangement will see ALP volunteers distribute the Liberal Democrats how-to-vote cards at polling places on Saturday.

  29. Morning all.

    Today’s PvO takes the stick to the numpties who opposed marriage equality. Love this para:

    It’s hard to overstate the significance of 62 per cent of voters voluntarily filling out their ballots to register a Yes vote. Research tells us that about 4 per cent of the population are gay. For 62 per cent of people proactively to demand that 4 per cent be allowed to join in on the institution of marriage is an overwhelming endorsement of minority rights.

    Australians no longer want gays to be second-class citizens.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/samesex-marriage-result-exposes-reactionaries-as-the-dinosaurs-they-are/news-story/1140bc5b01a30ee59d7dae06192ba4f6

  30. Question

    In other words you have a partisan view.

    This is because you ignore when Labor votes with the LNP.

    They do this a lot. The Greens are doing the same. Just not as Labor does it.

    I agree the they are all the same is spin. However thats politics to boost their votes. Just as Labor does by saying only a major party can be the government despite the actual facts showing Minority governments give Greens and in fact in other parliaments other parties a say and even ministries.

  31. It is my recollection that Zoomster has placed sufficient information about herself and her political involvements on this site to enable anyone to readily identify her should they have had an interest or desire to do so.

    The provider of this site has never, in my continuous engagement with it over 12 years or so, “outed” or identified anyone.

  33. The Liberal Democrats were never going to support the Greens over Labor anyway.

    Its also blunts Labor’s attacks on the LNP handing out One Nation HTVs. Dumb move.

    Animal Justice Party is the interesting one IMHO.

  34. Yes Guytaur, my views are partisan, but it is good of you to acknowledge the GRNs also behave in a partisan way. Most GRNs struggle with that.

  35. FS

    I agree. Its not William outing anyone. Its people outing themselves.

    eg. Cat posted something which enabled me to identify her.

    Some are going to use that information maliciously. That is a sad truth of our society. Luckily this is a small minority as far as I know.

    We have laws to protect people however that should be used when someone is being harassed. This is why governments have been passing laws to protect against cyber bullying in the virtual world and avo’s etc for the same in the real world.

  36. Either the Nationals believe a banking Royal Commission is warranted or they doing. Using it as a bargaining chip says more about their willingness to overlook allegations of criminality for political gain than anything else

  37. I think Janet Albrechtson has a category error, on a scenario where Turnbull stays as PM:
    “….That means the real talent of the party disappears: Dutton sits on a 1.6 per cent margin, Flint on 3.5 per cent, Andrew Hastie on 6.8 per cent, Alan Tudge on 8.6 per cent and Dan Tehan on 9.8 per cent.”

    Yes they may well lose their seats but ‘the real talent of the party’? Things are worse than I thought.

    For Henderson, I might read the critique on loon pond, otherwise it would be too hard to stomach.

  38. C@tmomma @ #76 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 12:56 am

    PuffyTMD @ #66 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 12:43 am

    Pollbludger and The Pub are two different blogs that serve different purposes and are not comparable.

    One of the main reasons I stayed after the Christmas shut down of pb ended was that I could post positive things about Julia Gillard without being dive-bombed.

    It is a place where the First Female Prime Minister of Australia has not been erased from history, like so much of women’s history, or her-story if you like, which has been actively wiped from the record, or passively ignored.

    Each blog is what people want it to be. If you do not like one or the other, no one is forcing you to read it or post.

    A VERY selective interpretation, PTMD. I can remember quite clearly that I was hounded out of the other blog for vociferously supporting Julia Gillard. For not kowtowing to fiona and talking to her about why I was so upset, when she rang me up one night. I had been given the rounds of the kitchen by Bushfire Bill, publicly, on the blog, and I would have thought it was obvious to blind freddy. And for over-using emojis, apparently, which herr commandant Bill didn’t approve of. Frankly, I’m glad to be shot of that viperous clique. Sadly, however, it has leached over to PB.

    Brilliant exposition on that batshit insane clique.

    Puffy should also learn that to praise one former PM does not require denigration of another former PM who many hold in high esteem. Perhaps that is a clue to how she attracted attention.

    I characterised the charming Fiona as being like a North Korean Border Guard and I stick by it. I can think of a number of authoritarian organisations, past and present, where she would be right at home.

  39. There seems to be this illusion that every single policy of the LNP is so bad the ALP should not support it.

    There are a lot of times when legislation is sensible no matter where it comes from. Labor votes with the LNP just as the Greens do when legislation is straightforward or sensible.

    So ‘they vote with them’ is a silly insult and means nothing in terms of policy adherence.

  46. GG

    The article in the Saturday Paper is well worth reading. Rudd nails Murdoch media. Just as he nailed Aboriginal policy.

    You don’t have to like the man to give him credit for the good things he did do. Under him the first term of Labor was far far better than that of the LNP.

    If we had not had Rudd and his Kitchen Cabinet working together we would have had austerity and followed the UK into recession.

  48. To be true to his principles, Bernardi should have installed this coal fired electric generator in his backyard, obtainable from China through Alibaba for about $10k:

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