Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,696 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal”

Comments Page 5 of 54
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  1. LOL.

    #BringBackAbbott‏ @TeamTAbbott
    3h3 hours ago
    .@jkalbrechtsen: “@TonyAbbottMHR could tear apart Bill Shorten in a way Turnbull has failed to.” #BringBackAbbott #auspol @australian

    Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden
    1h1 hour ago
    This is motif of Abbottistas. His campaign skills. But voters in his own seat voted 75 per cent for marriage equality. Result didn’t deviate

  4. Confessions @ #144 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 10:32 am

    LOL.

    #BringBackAbbott‏ @TeamTAbbott
    3h3 hours ago
    .@jkalbrechtsen: “@TonyAbbottMHR could tear apart Bill Shorten in a way Turnbull has failed to.” #BringBackAbbott #auspol @australian

    Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden
    1h1 hour ago
    This is motif of Abbottistas. His campaign skills. But voters in his own seat voted 75 per cent for marriage equality. Result didn’t deviate

    Could someone kindly explain to Planet Janet that Bill Shorten has already kicked Tony Abbott’s backside? While Toned Abs was Prime Minister and throwing the kitchen sink and a Royal Commission at Bill!!!

  5. Ides

    ‘Its also blunts Labor’s attacks on the LNP handing out One Nation HTVs. Dumb move.’

    Each state runs its own campaigns and cuts its own preference deals, particularly with state elections, so whoever’s running the Northcote campaign wouldn’t have worried too much of how it played out in Queensland.

    peg

    Negotiation with minor parties is an essential part of government. If the ALP can do so successfully and the Greens can’t, then that in itself strengthens the argument that the seat should go to the ALP.

  6. ..and I don’t mind being outed, having provided plenty of info to identify myself. I do object to someone using my real name whilst they themselves post under a pseudonym.

    It’s just rude.

  7. PeeBee wrote this last night. He picked it in one:

    One thing about sociopaths, they don’t stop. They consider this setback as a lost battle with more to come. Sometimes their victims may not even know they are being victimised again. Subtle things, like missing out on a promotion, a bit of smearing of character behind the scenes etc.

    I can only hope the person behaved so badly, that they were removed from the situation permanently to leave your OH to continue with her career without interference.

    The person who sent the email to the wrong address shouldn’t have been sending it at all, even to the intended address. He thought he’d get away with it because he sent it in literally the last hour (at 4.30pm) of his employment with my wife’s organization. He had given his notice 4 weeks before.

    An attached document he sent had been originally delivered by courier to my wife several months before. It was marked “Strictly Private and Confidential – By Courier Only” and comprehensively identified my wife by name, address, telephone number, payroll number, and position within the organization. It was written by someone else (i.e. not the sender) who has also now left the organization, and had obviously been plucked from her files.

    We probably would never have found out about its inappropriate redistribution if it had been correctly addressed, but one of the recipients incorrectly cc’d into it forwarded it to us with a “WTF?” cover note.

    The attached document traduced my wife’s character, based on falsified evidence, which we had already brought to the attention of the investigators as such. The investigators had, at the time, immediately withdrawn this document and certified this withdrawal in writing next day. So, imagine our surprise when we saw this evidence reintroduced as the primary source of my wife’s guilt and then later emailed to all and sundry. They had done the old switcheroo behind our back. You just can’t keep a good farrago of lies down. There’s always one more person you can send it to.

    It was a rat act, pure and simple, a very nasty and self-serving act of self-justification, sent (we believe) inan attempt to explain away the expenditure of a fortune in public money on a complete train wreck for which he had been responsible, with an equal measure of maliciousness added to spice things up. He didn’t think he’d be caught out, and indeed it was just an accident that he was, by sending defamatory documents to the wrong email address.

    So, at least this bloke won’t be around anymore to harass my wife. Her employers say they are investigating the incident “as a matter of priority”, but since they said this three weeks ago (and we haven’t heard a word back from them), I reckon they’ve quietly dropped the matter.

    Since this started over two years ago we’ve seen off 22 senior executives and managers who all signed on to my wife’s termination. They are all gone: retrenched, resigned, sacked, transferred and demoted. I bet none of them thought they’d be out of a job before my wife. So, at least some schadenfreude to enjoy there.

  9. Cat

    You could say the same about most politicians. They all have a public image and a private persona. Unless you are actually working with them day to day you don’t really know the ins and outs of peoople.

    You just get perception coloured by what others say with less and less accuracy as you get further away from that group.

    Yet its exactly this kind of Chinese whispers our democracy works on when the press gallery reports on the horse race and pretend to be insiders rather than look at actual policy outcomes.

    Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard will forever be coloured in a partisan way with the extraordinary leadership changes Labor had in its last time in government.

    I am glad it looks like that period is ending. I do wonder how much of that period was a practice run for Trump. Murdoch media did a lot of fake news to my mind for Abott the wrecker campaigning

  10. Just another example of the Rudd leopard trying to change his stripes. He was a monumental suck up to the minions of Murdoch (most noticeabley Mitchell the editor) when his star was on the rise. Now, history is damning him more for his treachery and personal inadequacies, he just wants to polish up the CV with a bit of white out.

  14. The preference deal with the Liberal Democrats in Northcote is:

    1. Trying to make every post a winner against their main competitor, as every party does in an election.

    2. A recognition of the fact, viewed from the reverse angle, that the Liberal Democrats would rather do a deal with Labor than The Greens.

    3. At the end of the day, a deal had to be done of some sort, and Labor were hardly likely to preference The Greens, their main competitors, ahead of anyone! 🙂

  17. GG

    As I said to Gecko. Rudd admits to cosying up to Murdoch’s media and states why.

    Like or loath Rudd himself his message is spot on.

    Try and overcome your prejudice and see the greater danger Rudd is pointing out.

    Rather than come back with Rudd is doing this because. Of course he is. He tells us so in the article. However that does not change the reality of the danger he is pointing out.

  19. bemused @ #159 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 10:47 am

    KayJay @ #110 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 7:37 am

    C@tmomma and AR

    I have tried Block and Unblock with the latest C+

    Works just fine for me.

    Just for information. 😎

    Block is only ever used by the truly pathetic.
    Why to you assist them?

    As I stated yesterday, I only used it for a little while so that I could regain my composure and not be continually sucked in to the eye of the storm. Then I went to Unblock later on and I found I couldn’t!

  20. It would be much easier to sleep at night if you could believe that we’re in such a mess of misinformation simply because Russian agents disseminated inflammatory posts that reached 126 million people on Facebook.

    The Russians also uploaded a thousand videos to YouTube and published more than 130,000 messages on Twitter about last year’s election. As recent congressional hearings showed, the arteries of our democracy were clogged with toxins from a hostile foreign power.

    But the problem is not the Russians — it’s us. We’re getting played because too many Americans are ill equipped to perform the basic functions of citizenship. If the point of the Russian campaign, aided domestically by right-wing media, was to get people to think there is no such thing as knowable truth, the bad guys have won.

    As we crossed the 300-day mark of Donald Trump’s presidency on Thursday, fact-checkers noted that he has made more than 1,600 false or misleading claims. Good God. At least five times a day, on average, this president says something that isn’t true.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/17/opinion/were-with-stupid.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

  21. phoenixRED @ #115 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 7:47 am

    C@tmomma says: Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 7:33 am

    Good Morning Bludgers

    This is for Phoenix Red, by way of a big thank you!

    *******************************************

    Again Thanks C@tmomma – and also Thanks to a number of other PB posters whose posts of support throughout the day brightened up the lousy start I had to yesterday morning

    I’ll try to do better ……

    Don’t let it get to you.
    I am only an occasional reader of your posts largely due to time constraints. But they cause no inconvenience and are there if I want them and something catches my eye.
    Some people are just intolerant.

  26. As I stated yesterday, I only used it for a little while so that I could regain my composure and not be continually sucked in to the eye of the storm.

    I don’t know why you’re so sensitive about yesterday.

    The one, single time I mentioned your name was to praise your contributions and to congratulate you on your passion for the issues you care about.

    Bushfire Bill says:
    Friday, November 17, 2017 at 8:38 pm
    …
    C@tmomma is an honourable exception. She writes cogent, often lengthy posts with feeling and argument. She backs up what she says and isn’t afraid to defend it. Good for her.

    I didn’t mention anyone else’s name except the person who stated that I wrote a homophobic post that could be just as easily have been written against Jews. He repeated this statement later in the day, only to have his defenders (including yourself) say that because they had not seen the reference, I must have been deluding myself. You claimed to have not seen the reference, ironically, in a post where you admitted you had deliberately blocked posts so you couldn’t read about them. You have just repeated that statement.

    The rest is your imagination, C@t.

  28. JoshBBornstein: You were right Lyle. Freedom of Speech is gone & we’re all wearing dresses. twitter.com/lyleshelton/st…
    LyleShelton: Dr Mike Bird on how we go here. #Embolden17 pic.twitter.com/DTQVU7IEDd

  29. Raaraa @ #140 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 8:53 am

    RE Paul Zanetti’s comic

    It seems the religious right like to emphasis on the ethnic minorities speaking the loudest on the “NO” vote whereas in reality it is mainly them who are actually the ones who are the most vocal. The muslims as a group would make up no more than 2% of the overall vote, and even that how many percent of them would vote YES or NO? The other biggest NO voters are those of Asian background, again making up no more than 5% of the voting enrolled population if you were to make the flawed assumption that all voted NO.

    You are quoting overall population statistics and ignoring that there are some areas with much higher concentrations of Moslem, Chinese or Indian etc voters.

  30. BB

    I note you have not quoted your post that I referred to.

    All your arguments since has backed up my statement. Put Jew or Black instead of Gay and you yourself disagree with what you posted.

    That is unless you are changing your mind and saying that yes refusing to serve a gay customer just because they are gay isn’t homophobia.

  31. kevjohnno @ #142 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 8:57 am

    Steve777 since Billie was listing the differences between The Pub and here “The moderators there have never disclosed my identity to other posters” can only be read as implying that the moderator here had disclosed Billie’s identity.

    Now apart from my initial thought of who the f**K is this Billie, I wonder who the f**k would really want to know Billie’s identity.

    If Billie finds that other place more congenial, I think that tells me about as much as I want to know about Billie.

  32. I cannot conceive of any individual who would want to ‘big game hunt’, much less keep a trophy of their kill, or even why you would reverse such legislation banning it. As Bill Maher once said, if only Obama had constructed all those confederate statues, just so Trump could have the pleasure of tearing them down.

    Elephants are remarkably empathic and intelligent, even capable of self-awareness.

    And then there’s the Trump administration, which announced this week that it would lift a ban imposed by the Obama administration on importing elephant heads, feet and other body parts severed as trophies after the animals are shot for sport in Zimbabwe. A few weeks ago the administration said it would end a similar ban on imports from Zambia.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/17/opinion/trump-trophy-elephants.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

  37. I would have thought in a real “democratic ” system an electoral representative would be obliged to vote along with their constituents wishes, especially when it is so cut & dried what they want.

    A qualified NO vote should follow from Tony Burke ! Even if he has to hold his nose while doing so.
    If he doesn’t he shouldn’t be suppressed if he finds himself unemployed after the next election.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/samesex-marriage-result-huge-no-votes-in-multicultural-electorates-20171114-gzlm0o.html

    …where up to three quarters of the population in the electorates of Blaxland and Watson voted against same sex marriageThe same two factors repeated themselves in the only two areas to vote against same-sex marriage in Victoria: Calwell and Bruce.

    Voters from Lebanese and Chinese backgrounds now outnumber those from Australian heritage in these areas, 72 per cent of all people had both parents born overseas. 30 per cent are from a Muslim backgrounds in Blaxland, 23 per cent in Watson, 10 times the national average of 2.6 per cent.

  40. When we recently sold our house (in the Berowra electorate, just over the road from Bennelong) we had 37 interested parties come through over 5 weeks on mostly private “by appointment” inspections.

    Of those 37, the real estate agent tells us that 29 were Chinese couples, 7 were Indian, and one was (for want of a better description) “a young Aussie couple”.

    Next door in Bennelong it’s wall to wall Chinese and Koreans. Our agent tells us that he very rarely – to the point of it being notably rare – gets anything else but Chinese buying or selling.

    Other agents in the same area say the same thing. The assumption, with 90%-plus certainty is that either Chinese or Indian couples are buying up anything and everything available here.

    This area of Sydney is becoming an Asian population center. This is an observation, not an opinion. There are a lot of elderly Chinese people here too, obviously too old to have come here to work. They are the grandparents looking after the kids during the day. We have two sets of newly arrived Chinese grandparents in our street, and one Sri Lankan pair of grandparents. There are only 5 houses in the street.

    Lakemba/Bankstown/Punchbowl is very definitely a Muslim area, as is Auburn/Lidcombe, with many Lebanese, but also Afghans, Pakistanis, Indonesians and a smattering of African (Sudanese and Somalian) people.

    Harris Park (next door to Parramatta) is mostly Indian.

    These are just some examples. There are dozens of suburbs all across Western Sydney with similar ethnic makeups, recently and relatively rapidly (last 10 years) acquired.

    When we bought our house, 16 years ago, there was 1 Asian couple inspecting it.

    If anyone says that these electorates don’t reflect the new ethnicity,and in the case of Blaxland the religion of their inhabitants, they really need to get out more often.

  41. bemused @ #214 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 10:47 am

    KayJay @ #110 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 7:37 am

    C@tmomma and AR

    I have tried Block and Unblock with the latest C+

    Works just fine for me.

    Just for information. 😎

    Block is only ever used by the truly pathetic.
    Why do you assist them?

    While I am also, by extension, truly pathetic, I swear that I only assist because my mother taught me (she didn’t really as she killed herself when I was eight years old) to be kind to others.

    How should I correct this problem?

    I await your advice.

  42. sceptic:

    I disagree about MPs having to vote according to their electorate wishes – do we really want to be polled on every single issue to be put before parliament?

    However I am in favour of those MPs voting according to their electorate wishes where they publicly declared they would from the get go.

  43. People are forgetting it’s just a survey. Burke et al promised to vote in favour of gay marriage at the lat election. They have a mandate and to not so so would be undemocratic. People shouldn’t really criticise Abbott or any of the other hard righters if they vote no either. They have been clear all along. Wilson, Smith, Zimmerman and many supporters in the coalition such as Pyne, Entsch etc will all vote for it.

    Labor members are free to vote against at this stage I believe in accordance with conscience. From next year the Labor members would be bound though.

  44. BB

    Yes. Also a lot of Filipino asians that I anecdotally experienced were into American evangelical christianity.

    This would explain their no vote.

    I am not making this a generalisation just noting my anecdotal experience

  45. Gee, Alexander gets an expedited renunciation. I hope the HC is paying attention. If they rule out Labor candidates, who were shuffled into the slow queue, they will undoubtedly be letting a foreign government dictate the composition of an Australian parliament. They are a lot smarter than that.

  46. jenauthor @ #188 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 10:19 am

    Bemused – your dislike of Gillard (and I am being polite) is colouring your interpretation as well.

    Guilty as charged!
    But I don’t bang on endlessly about her with torrents of abusive terms.
    Whatever good qualities she had, loyalty to her leader wasn’t one of them, and I just thought she failed to connect with the electorate at large. She lacked that essential ability of a leader. And she also showed very flawed judgement at times. e.g. over the ‘carbon tax’.

    Rudd had his flaws too, but they were more of a nature that did not adversely effect his public persona, ability to relate to the electorate and win public support. He apparently pissed off some of his colleagues by being nasty to them! The poor petals.

  47. I note you have not quoted your post that I referred to.

    Neither did you mate, when you wrote:

    guytaur says:
    Friday, November 17, 2017 at 9:40 am

    BB

    … I am just defending myself here from what I see as an unreasonable attack on me because I pointed out the comment as posted was homophobic.

    If you’re going to demand that whole posts be quoted by others before adding a comment to the end of them, you should start (how did you put it?) “take a good look at yourself” first.

    You really do need to learn that going around as self-appointed moral arbiter of other people’s contributions and their alleged bigotry, you need to be careful what you say.

    That, by the way, is not a warning or a threat, or even one of those high-dudgeon-inspired demands for a retraction that we see around here from time to time. It’s just advice: stop digging.

  48. Bemused

    The press was into “Angry Rudd”. We all heard about the makeup artist who got “blasted” for the way she did her job.

    We know Turnbull gets angry but we hear almost zero about that from the media.

    This is what I mean by Fake News. Its fake because its propaganda by having two very different approaches to Labor figures v that of LNP ones.

  49. White House Admits That Trump Is Afraid To Speak Out Against Roy Moore Because Of His Own Sex Crimes

    CNN reported, “Sources close to the White House told CNN on Wednesday that Trump believes the allegations against Moore are bad for the party’s brand, but is reluctant to come out forcefully against Moore because of sexual misconduct allegations he himself has faced. Trump was accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by a dozen women in the final month of his campaign for president last year.”

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/17/white-house-admits-trump-afraid-speak-roy-moore-sex-crimes.html

  50. Whatever good qualities she had, loyalty to her leader wasn’t one of them

    One could say the same about Rudd’s loyalty tohis leader, unless you are claiming that Gillard wasn’t really Rudd’s leader, with Rudd’s losing three party room votes on precisely this point.

    We guffaw here regarding Abbott’s illegitimate and destructive attempts to undermine Turnbull. It is a straight gift to Labor that he does this. Yet in the situation of Rudd v. Gillard a strange silence erupts from certain quarters.

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