Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Turnbull down on approval, but steady on voting intention.

The first Newspoll result from The Australian in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 10% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up one). Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 42-31 to 41-33, and he has taken a knock on his personal ratings, with approval down three to 32% and disapproval up four to 56%. Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 33%, and up two to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1583.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

594 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  4. Going well. It would be great if Labor could score 54 in a real election. It hasn’t done this since WW2.

    The margin of error for the sample size would be about 2.5%.

  5. I wonder whether the RWNJ jihad against Turnbull is starting to bite. Bolt, Alan Jones, Ray Hadley, Miranda Devine and their running dogs are daily bagging Turnbull.

    And the ‘killing season’ is fast approaching….

  9. sprocket:

    My view FWIW is that voters don’t see a point to this govt. May as well let the other mob govern such is the aimlessness of Turnbull’s lot. I’d be surprised if Jones, Bolt et al have even minimal impact on voter sentiment. From what we know they largely preach to the converted who would never vote Labor.

  11. With the release of the 21st Newspoll in a row showing the LNP behind, it’s a good time to have a look at who is still standing in the Libspill III sweepstakes:

    Rex Douglas – Xmas 2017
    Booleanbach – after 30 consecutive bad polls
    C@t – after 30 Newspolls
    cupidstunt – 3 months before election
    Frednk – April 13 2019
    Chinda63 – after the next election/Turnbull resignation

  12. ‘fess,
    As I alluded to with the song I chose to put up, ‘The thrill is gone’. remember when Turnbull came to power, it seemed like everyone, except us, was thrilled to bits. They ain’t no more.

  13. DanG,
    I would posit that booleanbach is maybe out of the running too because I think there have been more than ’30 bad polls’ for Turnbull. Counting Newspoll + Essential at least.

  22. C@t:

    Yep Turnbull very quickly burned whatever capital he had with voters by getting owned by the reactionary faction of the LNP.

    If he had judgement he’d call their bluff, try to shift the LNP more centrist, and dare them to replace him with Dutton if they disagree.

  24. ‘fess,
    I can’t understand how Dutton is even being seriously considered as a putative leader of the Liberal Party. The guy’s a rolled gold dud!

  25. C@tmomma @ #13 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 7:09 pm

    DanG,
    I would posit that booleanbach is maybe out of the running too because I think there have been more than ’30 bad polls’ for Turnbull. Counting Newspoll + Essential at least.

    Hmmm. If we asked booleanbach to clarify what he meant by polls, I’m sure he’d say he meant Newspolls.

    We’ll let it stand for the time being, however that will be taken into account in case a tiebreaker is needed,

    Anyway, the way things are going, Rex((!) might be the winner.

  26. C@t @10:13PM – Corruption in Australia. That article is dated 15/2/2016. Still, many of those matters are still relevant. That plus I’m very suspicious about how desperate this Government seems to be to get Adani up and running, spruiking dodgy projections / made up numbers of jobs created and virtually throwing money and concessions at them.

  29. The spin will be along the lines of “In the face of rising energy prices due to ALP policies, Turnbull manages to maintain popularity despite the High Court challenge and the worst global turn down in the history of the world…”

    Tom

  30. DanG,
    Anyway, the way things are going, Rex((!) might be the winner.

    I thought that too! As I don’t think Malcolm Turnbull will give up the job of PM just because HE has hit 30 bad Newspolls. I don’t think his Praetorian Guard will let anyone else take over yet, either.

  31. ‘fess,
    Yes, being discrete in their choice of leader isn’t working out too well for the Liberal Party, so they might go for full balls out again. : )

  33. There is no doubt Turnbull will face a leadership challenge if the Libs are in this position not far from the next election.Absolutely guaranteed.

  34. C@tmomma
    ‘fess,
    I can’t understand how Dutton is even being seriously considered as a putative leader of the Liberal Party.

    There’s no-one from the so-called Moderates who could assemble the numbers, so any replacement for Turnbull would have to come from the Right. Obviously that cannot be Abbott. He is a political derelict. That leaves Dutton as the only alternative. For the time being – and probably for tactical reasons – he has ruled out a challenge.

    The Liberals must also know that changing leaders would be very risky. The electorate would likely be totally underwhelmed and Turnbull may quit the Parliament if he were dumped. Of course, the Liberals are also broke in NSW, Victoria, WA and SA. They are in no position to fight a federal election and have several State campaigns ahead of them.

  35. C@t:

    I still think Turnbull should go full moderate and stare down his partyroom. At the very least he gets to go out on parting shot of ‘well I tried’.

  38. If Turnbull is disposed, I cant see him staying in parliament. However it would depend on how long the next election is away if writs were issued or they left it open for a month or two etc.

  39. Confessions
    C@t:

    I still think Turnbull should go full moderate and stare down his partyroom. At the very least he gets to go out on parting shot of ‘well I tried’.

    The first task of the leader is to maintain unity. For Turnbull, this is problematic because a significant rump is determined to disrupt the peace whenever they can. He could attempt to impose some discipline on them, but this would be to pick a fight he could not possibly win. His numbers in House are too few for that kind of a fight. He can be humiliated by any of his backbenchers any time. In this respect, Turnbull is paying the price for almost losing in 2016. But just as he cannot temper his opponents, nor can they depose him. The result is a permanent stand-off among the weak and the divided. Government has become a series of winless draws on policy and a parade of empty gestures.

  40. The polling is proving to be remarkably resistant to variation, and it’s hard not to think that the voters have pretty much made their minds up – Turnbull is a dud, the Libs are consumed with infighting, not yet sure about either Labor or Shorten, but on the whole the Opposition seems like the safest option. These views haven’t really altered much since the election.

    There are still things out there that could change those perceptions, of course (an economic crisis, or a war, for example, or a major blunder by Shorten and/or the ALP), but you’d have to think that the next election is looking pretty locked in for Labor.

    The other question to ponder is when the next election will be held.Assuming a standard House-and-half-Senate poll, it must held between early August, 2018, and mid-May, 2019. Taking school holidays, footy finals, and the State elections in Vic & NSW into account, that suggests only the following periods are possible: mid Aug-mid Sept, 2018; October, 2018, February, 2019; and mid-April to mid-May, 2019. The government will go, naturally, when they think that they will have their best chance of winning, but if the polls stay as stuck as they (probably a safe assumption, all things considered), the 2019 options see the more likely.

  41. This is a Liberal opinion of Turnbull from the Oz online blog:
    If Shorten gets in at the next election, there will be no coming back as after Whitlam and the other destroy by sideliners of our country. Our debt will be unsurmountable , our borders will be put to the sword , our industry will be decimated . The only Politician who can fight the Marxists is Abbott with Dutton at his side .

  42. Dan Gulberry @ #11 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 10:06 pm

    With the release of the 21st Newspoll in a row showing the LNP behind, it’s a good time to have a look at who is still standing in the Libspill III sweepstakes:

    Rex Douglas – Xmas 2017
    Booleanbach – after 30 consecutive bad polls
    C@t – after 30 Newspolls
    cupidstunt – 3 months before election
    Frednk – April 13 2019
    Chinda63 – after the next election/Turnbull resignation

    Without quoting the full list as some people might not like that, how many entrants were there?

    On the Not-A-Poll on my site, “2019 before the election” overtook “Second half 2017” as the pick with the most votes about a month ago, which I suspect means it’s been the most popular pick for several months. (An issue with that poll is that we’re not sure the election will be in 2019.) “First half 2018” is also coming up on the rails pretty fast.

  43. briefly:

    Turnbull would claw back a modicum of respect from me if he went down fighting for the moderate beliefs he supposedly stands by. On current form he is just getting chipped away at for no gain and no benefit. Best to go down fighting IMO.


  46. If Shorten gets in at the next election, there will be no coming back as after Whitlam and the other destroy by sideliners of our country. Our debt will be unsurmountable

    This bunch of wankers have double the debt.

    our borders will be put to the sword , our industry will be decimated .

    It was Hockey that told out car industry to piss off.

    The only Politician who can fight the Marxists is Abbott with Dutton at his side .

    Go for it; why stop at 54/46 they should be able to puch it too 56/44.

  48. “I still think Turnbull should go full moderate and stare down his partyroom.”

    Too late now. He should have done this two years ago. He’s made too many compromises with his party’s Far Right wing. No one would believe them. Should he try, Labor should push this angle – basically a version of “why vote for a party full of dinosaurs? Vote for us, we don’t have any”.

  49. The desperacy of an online Oz blogger:

    Tick Tock…time is running out FAST!!!

    DO SOMETHING….ANYTHING,!!!!

    Get rid of Turnbull….NOW!!!

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