Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Turnbull down on approval, but steady on voting intention.

The first Newspoll result from The Australian in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 10% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up one). Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 42-31 to 41-33, and he has taken a knock on his personal ratings, with approval down three to 32% and disapproval up four to 56%. Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 33%, and up two to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1583.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

594 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Steve777 @ #48 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 10:58 pm

    “I still think Turnbull should go full moderate and stare down his partyroom.”

    Too late now. He should have done this two years ago. He’s made too many compromises with his party’s Far Right wing. No one would believe them. Should he try, Labor should push this angle – basically a version of “why vote for a party full of dinosaurs? Vote for us, we don’t have any”.

    And he’ll say back, “ahhh, but you have Shoppies.”

    But I agree with the basic sentiment. Turnbull has trashed his own brand to the point that if he tries to blow up the farm by starting a new party or taking a bunch of mates to the crossbench, the most likely response will be derision and disbelief.

  2. Hugoaugogo
    The polling is proving to be remarkably resistant to variation

    Hugo…

    It ‘s also likely that, as usual, most voters are barely focused on politics at all and the polls simply reflect the ongoing stresses on household incomes and balance sheets. The poor polling for the LNP in the regions and the metro peripheries – where income pressures have been greatest – suggest to me that anti-incumbent sentiment is being forced by economic factors.

    As the next election draws closer, voters will start to focus on some of the other issues – leadership, party coherence and unity, taxes, social policies….and so on. This should assist Labor, who have been working away on their brand strengths all the time and will be the main beneficiary of anti-incumbent expression. As well, there’s no doubt that Labor morale and readiness are high. This will also serve Labor well whenever the campaign comes along.

    The next election will likely be the first fought in the post-war era when the Right will be comprehensively split. Wherever we look – in nearly very State – the LNP plurality is disintegrating. It’s quite possible that the Lib PV will fall to the very low 30s in these circumstances. Plenty of commentators will dispute that. But we should take note of the result in the Legislative Council results in WA. The Lib PV fell into the 20s, split apart by votes for ON, the Shooters, the Lib-Dems, the Christians and the Nationals. Voter attachment to the Liberal Party is really much less resilient than we usually assume. If the splits on the Right are not contained and repaired, they will likely get their biggest thrashing since 1943.

  3. From left field I’ll throw Christian Porter out there as a replacement for Brian Trumble. Despite being from WA he has suitable conservative credentials, and enough political experience to be a credible contender for PM.

    On current polling he is a near certainty to loose his seat, so a Hail Mary shot at the poison chalice which is the leader of the Parliamentary Liberal Party might save his his skin and some L/NP furniture at the next election.

  4. Turnbull is incredibly weak. This has been obvious since January last year. His party is populated by idiots. Nothing will save them.

  5. grimace…Porter might fancy himself and he is an opportunist…but geeeez, he is dull. He is almost entirely without human warmth and is also a weakling on policy. His greatest claim is an ability to combine cruelty with deception.

  6. grimace

    From left field I’ll throw Christian Porter out there as a replacement for Brian Trumble.

    more than 95% of the population wouldn’t know who he was if they tripped over him.

  7. @ Briefly

    Agree the Liberals are heading for a thrashing at the next election, which will be a direct consequence of failing to renew after Howard and further exacerbated by fragmentation on the Right.

    I think they’ll get a repeat dose of what the WA Liberals just got. Put me down for a 105 seats.

  10. Agree on Porter’s weaknesses, not least being from WA. Being a policy lightweight and having a penchant for cruelty & deception are hardly impediments to leadership of the Liberal party.

    In current circumstances his relatively low profile works for him, he’s not associated with the Abbott crazy, nor is he a known Turnbull loyalist, so there is no perception of blood on his hands.

  12. grimace
    @ Briefly

    Agree the Liberals are heading for a thrashing at the next election, which will be a direct consequence of failing to renew after Howard and further exacerbated by fragmentation on the Right.

    I think they’ll get a repeat dose of what the WA Liberals just got. Put me down for a 105 seats.

    Love the optimism!

  15. briefly @ #62 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 8:39 pm

    grimace
    @ Briefly

    Agree the Liberals are heading for a thrashing at the next election, which will be a direct consequence of failing to renew after Howard and further exacerbated by fragmentation on the Right.

    I think they’ll get a repeat dose of what the WA Liberals just got. Put me down for a 105 seats.

    Love the optimism!

    A uniform swing of enough to take out Stirling (6.12%) and Canning (6.79%) nets Labor 101 seats.

    Stirling has been mentioned as winnable in WA Labor circles, and if Stirling is Winnable, so is Canning. If those two seats are winnable in WA which is a very conservative state, then the position would be much worse in progressive states like Victoria.

  16. William or Kevin

    Is it possible to determine from poll numbers or Bludgertrack how many Senate seats each party is likely to gain?

    Or is it impossible due to the sheer number of minor parties who run for the Senate and how their preferences would flow?

  17. Were the Liberals to change leader before the next election, they might go for someone who is presentable, has a reasonably high profile, who appears moderate, but will take directions from the Right. Whoever it is will get the full boost from Newscorp, who will gloss over their mistakes and run interference for them as required.

    The Deputy would be from the hard right, who can be the power behind the throne.

    So, Bishop-Dutton?

  18. Steve777 @ #67 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 8:57 pm

    Were the Liberals to change leader before the next election, they might go for someone who is presentable, has a reasonably high profile, who appears moderate, but will take directions from the Right. Whoever it is will get the full boost from Newscorp, who will gloss over their mistakes and run interference for them as required.

    The Deputy would be from the hard right, who can be the power behind the throne.

    So, Bishop-Dutton?

    J Bishop is a notorious lightweight and has been a disaster every time she’s got anywhere near a portfolio involving rigour and scrutiny. Foreign affairs is a sheltered workshop from which a lightweight like J Bishop is made to look much better than she actually is. Take her out of the sheltered workshop and expose her to sustained media scrutiny and she’ll fall apart, just like every other time she’s been put in a portfolio which is not a glorified sheltered workshop.

  20. A 54-46 result would yield Labor about 90 seats, a reversal of 2013. It would be great to see that in March-May 2019 (if bad polls continue the Government will go later), probably the most optimistic that we can reasonably expect. Then maybe a ‘Wranslide’ type result in 2022 (NSW State election 1978, 1981) and Labor is seen as the natural party of Government by the time of the election after that, in 2024-25.

    It is essential that Labor achieve this next time around, so they can tear up Abbott’s legacy (Turnbull and his replacement won’t have much of one) then shred Howard’s.

  21. Steve777 @ #70 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 9:07 pm

    A 54-46 result would yield Labor about 90 seats, a reversal of 2013. It would be great to see that in March-May 2019 (if bad polls continue the Government will go later), probably the most optimistic that we can reasonably expect. Then maybe a ‘Wranslide’ type result in 2022 (NSW State election 1978, 1981) and Labor is seen as the natural party of Government by the time of the election after that, in 2024-25.

    It is essential that Labor achieve this next time around, so they can tear up Abbott’s legacy (Turnbull and his replacement won’t have much of one) then shred Howard’s.

    In the next few weeks the L/NP are going to tear each other apart over ME and energy, then they are going to tear Trumble down after Newspoll comes 44 / 45 for the Liberals. The lack of resolution with ME and energy, plus the accumulated baggage of cuts to penalty rates, Conski, robodebt etc are going to dog the next leader all the way to the next election, which I’ll tip for August / September 2018.

  23. Steve,

    If Turnbull doesn’t go by March-May 2019 he’s going to have to call a half Senate election then and a House later that year. That can’t help him.

  24. grimace,

    Wish I shared your optimism about a late 2018 election. The earlier it happens the less FTTN that has to be scrapped. But I can’t think of a good enough reason why Turnbull would call it so early when he can drag his heels to early 2019. Especially if the polls are still crap for him.

  26. Grimace “In the next few weeks the L/NP are going to tear each other apart over ME and energy, then they are going to tear Trumble down after Newspoll comes 44 / 45 for the Liberals.”

    I hope you’re right. However, the moderates, including / especially Turnbull, have always caved in to the Far Right in the past. Turnbull is happy to preside over a Government that does nothing on climate change, which will be reconfirmed this week. The ‘moderate’ Hunt was happy to preside over the absurd Direct Inaction plan to pretend to be doing something about carbon emissions. Early this year, Freudenberg took an Emissions Intensity scheme off the table about 3 nanoseconds after the Far Right objected. Likewise, they all agreed to the absurd fake plebiscite. Power is the glue that holds them all together.

  27. You’d think if power is the glue that holds them all together, at some stage enough of them would figure out that they’ll no longer be in power unless they do something sensible.

  28. Good night all.

    I sighted the first Jacaranda blooms of the season today. Looking forward to the full displays in coming weeks. Also looking forward to the reappearance of cicadas and thunderstorms.

  29. Opting for split elections would make it obvious that they though they were going to loose, which is the main disincentive. However the states (especially the ALP held ones) could just call half-Senate elections anytime in the relevant financial year.

  31. Dan Gulberry @ #66 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 11:56 pm

    William or Kevin

    Is it possible to determine from poll numbers or Bludgertrack how many Senate seats each party is likely to gain?

    Or is it impossible due to the sheer number of minor parties who run for the Senate and how their preferences would flow?

    I wouldn’t be attempting such a thing at this time with any confidence. We are starting to see a lot of consolidation of so-called “micro parties” that are not forces in the Reps but might be significant in the Senate.

  32. cud chewer @ #77 Monday, October 16th, 2017 – 12:27 am

    You’d think if power is the glue that holds them all together, at some stage enough of them would figure out that they’ll no longer be in power unless they do something sensible.

    I get the impression that neither major party is actually all that strongly controlled by electoral competitiveness. They carry on with whatever nonsense they want to when they feel like it because if voted out they know that sooner or later the other side will stuff up and put them back in.

    The other possibility is that culture warriors think they are being electorally competitive and are delusional about it.

  37. citizen:
    “A “no” advert has just appeared on TV. Why are they bothering any more?”

    I caught one the other day. As an LGBTI person it is both sickening and bizarre to see a commercial TV station in Australia in 2017 run an ad encouraging others to vote against you being granted the same rights as others. But hey, money talks. I wonder if they’d be as willing to run anti-women’s rights, anti-Jew, anti-Muslim, anti-disability rights ads if the price was right?

  39. grimace

    ….. Put me down for a 105 seats.
    A uniform swing of enough to take out Stirling (6.12%) and Canning (6.79%) nets Labor 101 seats.

    I think it’s unlikely we’ll see a uniform national swing of 6.8%. This would suggest a national 2PP split approaching 57/43. This has only occurred twice before – in 1929 and 1943. A very good result would be a national 2PP split around 54/46, which would be Labor’s best result since 1946. I think this is obtainable….but it’s way too early to make predictions.

    Even so, I think it’s possible Labor will surprise on the upside, as occurred in WA. If the wish to change the Government becomes firmly fixed in the electorate and the competitive splits in the Right intensify, then Labor may win seats it has held only rarely in the past.

  41. Briefly
    I agree with you the swing will not be uniform. In places like WA it should be strong, but NSW remains the weak link. Hence I doubt we will see Labor win 105 seats. Of course, I’d love to see the Newspoll number if NSW was removed.

    The more comes out about the result of past Liberal decisions on energy and the NBN, the worse their vote will get. Plus they seem to have no economic policy plan other than to punish the young and the unemployed.

    Caping it off is the phantom former PM, the Ghost who Talks, popping up with some deranged comments on climate change or other issues de jour completely at odds with Turnbull’s stated position. And Malcolm can’t stop him because Tony’s friends are in the majority. There is not much for the Liberals to look forward to.


  43. Mr Newbie

    citizen:
    “A “no” advert has just appeared on TV. Why are they bothering any more?”

    …

    Did they put up a valid argument for no; I am yet to see one.


  45. Libspill III sweepstakes:

    Rex Douglas – Xmas 2017
    Booleanbach – after 30 consecutive bad polls
    C@t – after 30 Newspolls
    cupidstunt – 3 months before election
    Frednk – April 13 2019
    Chinda63 – after the next election/Turnbull resignation

    I think Chinda63 has it; this lot couldn’t organize a coup; the party structure has been destroyed.

  46. Hillary Clinton Schools Trump On North Korea and Makes Him Look Like A Fool

    Hillary Clinton explained how Trump is playing right into the hands of the North Korean regime and elevating Kim Jong Un with his tweets.

    Clinton said, “This is playing into Kim Jong Un’s hands. I mean the idea that is going tit for tat with the American president, who is tweeting against him and calling him names. That is catnip to this guy, and what we’ve done is to build him up, give him more legitimacy than he deserves to have given how his people are being treated, and I think that’s a very short-sighted and dangerous route to take.”

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/10/15/hillary-clinton-schools-trump-north-korea-fool.html

  47. Trump’s Day Of Reckoning Comes As Subpoena Issued For All Docs Related To His Sex Crimes

    A subpoena has been issued for all documents related to allegations of sexual assault against Donald Trump while he was a presidential candidate.

    Buzzfeed News reported on a plaintiff who is suing Trump for defamation related to a sexual assault allegation:

    They also asked for “all documents” concerning other women who have accused Trump of groping them, including Jessica Leeds, Mindy McGillivray, Rachel Crooks, Natasha Stoynoff, Temple Taggart, Kristin Anderson, Cathy Heller, Jill Harth, and Jessica Drake. The subpoena seeks “all documents concerning any accusations that were made during Donald J. Trump’s election campaign for president, that he subjected any woman to unwanted sexual touching and/or sexually inappropriate behavior.” Last year, Trump tweeted a blanket denial, saying, “Nothing ever happened with any of these women.”

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/10/15/trumps-moment-reckoning-subpoena-issued-docs-related-sex-crimes.html

  48. Rex Tillerson: Trump says to continue diplomacy with North Korea ‘until the first bomb drops’

    Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Sunday that President Donald Trump had instructed him to continue diplomatic efforts to calm rising tensions with North Korea, saying “those diplomatic efforts will continue until the first bomb drops.”

    Speaking on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Tillerson downplayed messages that President Trump had previously posted on Twitter suggesting Tillerson was wasting his time trying to negotiate with “Little Rocket Man,” a derogatory nickname Trump has coined for North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un.

    Trump “has made it clear to me to continue my diplomatic efforts,” Tillerson said.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/10/15/u-s-diplomacy-north-korea-continue-first-bomb-drops-tillerson.html

  49. From Briefly overnight.

    Porter might fancy himself and he is an opportunist…but geeeez, he is dull. He is almost entirely without human warmth and is also a weakling on policy. His greatest claim is an ability to combine cruelty with deception.

    I think that description might cover several other Coalition MPs as well, although they don’t all have the ascetic features of Porter.

  50. A lack of competition in both generation and electricity retail markets, the recent closures of coal-fired power stations and the growing cost of environmental schemes have also contributed to “severe” price rises since 2007 that have put homes and businesses under “unacceptable pressure”.

    This is not quite how it was reported on RN this morning. The main driver of costs has been over investment in poles and wires and lack of competition. “Greening” has contributed less than 10%.

    The rest of the article is pretty factual, but I bet the RWNJs in the govt. focus on the green effect.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/network-costs-the-main-driver-of-electricity-prices-consumer-watchdog-finds-20171015-gz17m3.html

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