Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Turnbull down on approval, but steady on voting intention.

The first Newspoll result from The Australian in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 10% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up one). Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 42-31 to 41-33, and he has taken a knock on his personal ratings, with approval down three to 32% and disapproval up four to 56%. Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 33%, and up two to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1583.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

594 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 12
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  1. “The government is talking about an investment approach to welfare, funding what works, but until now it has had little idea about what leads to what in subsequent generations”.

    The paper, to be published by Melbourne University on Monday, makes clear that it has not found that welfare payments themselves lead to more welfare payments.

    “If anything, it’s the reverse,” said Professor Cobb-Clark. “Young people who grew up in disadvantaged families would not be better off had their families never received benefits.

    “The benefits are a marker for something that’s happened. It is important that people don’t jump to the conclusion that we can fix all this by taking them away.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/staggering-young-people-twice-as-likely-to-be-on-centrelink-benefits-if-their-parents-were-20171015-gz15yq.html

  3. Good Morning Bludgers : )
    This is an interesting story relating to the company Trump, and the Coalition, use for data mining and targeting voters-Cambridge Anaalytica:

    An intern at the data mining and analysis firm Cambridge Analytica left online for nearly a year what appears to be programming instructions for the voter targeting tools the company used around the time of the election, raising questions about who could have accessed the tools and to what end…

    The tools the intern appears to have extracted facilitated geolocation targeting, to be used in enriching voter files with GPS coordinates, and Twitter sentiment analysis — essentially, the process of determining someone’s position on an issue by analysing tweets and pulling data from users discussing certain topics.

    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/trump-campaign-data-russia-cambridge-analytica-2017-10?r=US&IR=T

  5. John R

    It’s almost as if they judge any rational or ‘scientific’ findings as lefty nonsense. Much better to rely on gut instinct, or what the successful (rich) believe.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Wroe in The Australian writes that he Turnbull government is struggling to win back support as it prepares for a new fight on household energy prices, with the Coalition trailing Labor by 46 to 54 per cent in another harsh verdict from voters. Google.
    /national-affairs/newspoll-malcolm-turnbull-coalition-lose-ground-to-bill-shorten/news-story/0f4353da7817a380cb538982827029b2
    Here’s Michelle Grattan’s take on the latest Newspoll.
    https://theconversation.com/turnbulls-ratings-fall-in-another-bad-newspoll-85735
    Urban Wronski’s look at the past week in politics.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/10/15/a-government-with-no-real-interest-in-health-or-human-rights-or-its-people/
    Representatives of the British government flew to Australia in the lead-up to the 1975 dismissal of the Whitlam government to meet with the then governor-general, casting further doubt on the accepted narrative that London officials did not play an active role in Australia’s most significant constitutional crisis. No wonder the establishment is trying so hard to keep the royal involvement out of examination!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/volcanic-evidence-of-queens-involvement-in-the-1975-dismissal-uncovered-20171015-gz18zd.html
    Adam Gartrell reports that a huge increase in electricity network costs – driven by regulation and over investment – has been the number-one cause of rising household power bills over the last decade.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/network-costs-the-main-driver-of-electricity-prices-consumer-watchdog-finds-20171015-gz17m3.html
    Jess Irvine declares that Turnbull is the prophet of his own doom on energy policy. Quite a good article.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbull-prophet-of-his-own-doom-on-energy-policy-20171014-gz1510.html
    Jennifer Hewett writes that the heat will be on Turnbull this week as parliament resumes – and it won’t just be on energy policy. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/energy-prices-will-put-heat-on-turnbull-government-when-parliament-returns-20171015-gz19qg
    Greg Jericho says that conservatives cheering climate change always ignore how Australia’s economy will be among the hardest hit.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2017/oct/15/why-tony-abbotts-climate-snow-job-mistakes-australia-for-europe
    Amy Remeikis writes that After three days of hearings, confidence is waning that government MPs will survive the challenge to their election. The Coalition is preparing for the worst, she says.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/15/all-eyes-on-the-high-court-why-the-coalition-is-preparing-for-the-worst
    Mark Kenny writes about the effect Trump is having upon his partners.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/trumps-trifecta-thoughtless-iran-folly-strains-his-partners-patience-20171014-gz0zgu.html

  9. Section 2 . . .

    The dying weeks of a parliamentary year can be dangerous for weakened political leaders. Malcolm Turnbull knows this only too well, having lost the Liberal leadership once already in his short but spectacular career.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/turnbull-under-pressure-in-parliaments-last-weeks-20171012-gz089b.html
    David Wroe reviews a book that says China has drawn up secret plans to invade Taiwan with a Normandy-style beach landing by the mid-2020s, sparking a possible region-wide conflict that would likely draw in Australia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/beyond-north-korea-another-asia-flashpoint-could-spark-wwiii-new-book-claims-20171013-gz0vh0.html
    Sean Nicholls examines the weekend’s NSW by-election results and finds a mood for change.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/theres-a-pattern-here-labor-claims-momentum-in-nsw-after-byelection-results-20171015-gz180a.html
    Nick Xenophon has concerns a Coalition bill applies tougher standards on unions than employers. Google.
    /news/nation/nick-xenophon-concern-casts-doubt-on-governments-union-merger-bill/news-story/2d4a3c952276d5fa8846ef292ff1e585
    Melbourne Airport has been in breach of legislation that gives it authority to issue car-parking fines for at least two years, putting in doubt thousands of fines, a court has been told.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbourne-airports-authority-to-issue-parking-fines-under-scrutiny-in-court-20171015-gz1bv0.html
    Are ATMs on the way out?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/pressure-to-shut-atms-as-digital-payments-boom-gains-pace-20171014-gz15ax.html
    Our government brushes off concern about the hacking of a defence contractor but the Yanks are less than impressed and have sought proper explanation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/alf-defence-hack-raises-us-state-departments-hackles-20171014-gz14yt.html
    Kate Carnell gets THIS one right! There is no excuse for overly late payments for goods and services.
    http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/small-business-commissioner-kate-carnell-targets-government-for-faster-payments-20171015-gz17qk.html
    Peter Martin on how children of parents on Centrelink benefits are almost twice as likely to be on benefits themselves by their early 20s as children who are not. The world-first finding, culled from 18 years of Centrelink records, calls into question the conventional wisdom that it is easy for Australians to escape their upbringing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/staggering-young-people-twice-as-likely-to-be-on-centrelink-benefits-if-their-parents-were-20171015-gz15yq.html
    Crossbench senators are discussing the biggest clampdown on federal lobbying in a decade, including five-year bans on former government ministers working as lobbyists and the creation of a new “integrity commissioner”. Bring it on!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/crossbench-senators-consider-throwing-a-spanner-in-lobbying-revolving-door-20171013-gz0pk4.html

  10. SNL Makes Sure That Trump Will Forever Be Known As The Moron President

    Baldwin captured Trump’s incoherence at these “speeches,” which almost always quickly morph into Trump ranting about whatever is on his mind, but the skit also captured something else. It summarized Trump’s out of touch stupidity.

    When Balwin as Trump said, “And how dumb is Rex Tillerson folks? What a dumb, dumb, dumberooni, and he has the nerve to call me a moron. Talk about the pot calling the kettle Mexican. I am so much smarter than this guy, Rex. I have a huge IQ. I took an IQ test and let me just assure you, it came back positive, very positive. My IQ is through the roof, and frankly through many of the clouds as well. Ok? And by the way. I’m the only guy who even knows what IQ means most people don’t even know what IQ stands for inquedable.”

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/10/15/snl-trump-moron-president.html

  11. Section 3 . . .

    The Archbishop of Sydney used the pulpit to have a big spit over the SSM issue.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/crossbench-senators-consider-throwing-a-spanner-in-lobbying-revolving-door-20171013-gz0pk4.html
    This story is an excellent example of what recent political discourse has led to in the community.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/a-lifetime-in-australia-and-now-feeling-just-a-little-less-welcome-20171013-gz0piy.html
    The head of the Rationalist Society of Australia writes that the Victorian voluntary assisted dying bill is an historic opportunity. It’s not about life or death, he says, rather it’s simply a choice between two ways of dying. Fair enough.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/voluntary-assisted-dying-bill-offers-historic-opportunity-for-victorians-20171013-gz0lw7.html
    Here’s a good outline of the issues surrounding the voluntary euthanasia issue.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/assisted-dying-a-right-to-die–but-who-does-the-killing-20171014-gz0z08.html
    Australia’s human rights record will be critically assessed by a panel ofexperts this week, with controversial asylum policies and persistent indigenous issues highlighted as areas of significant concern.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/16/report-on-australias-human-rights-record-to-be-scrutinised-by-un-committee
    Young conservative star Sebastian Kurz is on track to become Austria’s next leader, projections of Sunday’s parliamentary election result showed, but his party is far short of a majority and likely to seek a coalition with the resurgent far right.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/10/15/austrias-31-year-old-conservative-star-seals-election-win_a_23244036/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    Government agencies could get approved access to part of the Commonwealth’s newly proposed facial recognition program. The Facial Verification Service, part of the federal government’s new ‘Capability’ program, would be accessible by departments such as the Department of Human Services or the Australian Taxation Office.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/federal-government-agencies-could-use-facial-recognition-platform-20171011-gyyzlh.html
    The Senate could overturn the Turnbull government’s decision to strip two local councils of their power to hold citizenship ceremonies.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senate-to-challenge-turnbulls-citizenship-ceremony-bans-20171015-gz17ft.html
    Governments around the world will “crush” bitcoin before long, according to two of the most powerful men on Wall Street, who argue that the only real value in the fast-rising virtual currency is as a tool for criminals and money launderers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/governments-will-crush-bitcoin-says-jpmorgan-chase-chief-jamie-dimon-20171015-gz1fkx.html
    What a shambles this has been for retailers in George Street, Sydney.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-retailers-face-yet-another-christmas-of-rail-disruption-20171011-gyylzb.html

  12. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner

    More great work from David Rowe.

    Jim Pavlidis on the current quality of debate.

    Matt Golding counters facial recognition technology.

    Mark David at his very best!

    David Pope is unimpressed with Hunt’s announcement about private health insurance.

    Matt Golding on the sugar issue.

    A Golding has a good swipe at Mesma.

    Golding’s in good form today!

    Sean Leahy on Julie Bishop’s NK statements.

    Jon Kudelka on Turnbull’s problem with the CET.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/4f552e016abab5998ef4e22f5bb928e7

  14. Section 4 . . .

    But from November 26, new ferry services, extra weekly train services and thousands of new bus services will start running to reduce journey times for commuters.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-commuters-to-benefit-from-thousands-of-new-public-transport-services-from-november-20171015-gz16iv.html
    Richo says that Gladys really needs to pull up her socks! Google.
    /opinion/columnists/nsw-premier-spins-complete-rubbish-as-liberals-hit-the-panic-button/news-story/f5d4ad604475f9c21a23faba50f32b00
    Cigarette filters were initially introduced by the tobacco industry in the 1960s to make cigarettes “safer”. But we now know they provide no safety, no health benefits, and are a major cause of environmental littering.
    https://theconversation.com/filters-a-cigarette-engineering-hoax-that-harms-both-smokers-and-the-environment-85393
    Why Australia still gets measles outbreaks.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/why-australia-still-gets-measles-outbreaks-despite-eliminating-the-infectious-disease-in-2014-20171013-gz08tp.html

  15. Section 4a . . .

    Australia’s complicated contribution to the State of Israel.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australias-complicated-contribution-to-the-state-of-israel-20171013-gz0il4.html
    Wayne Swan and Craig Emerson will give evidence as the full bench of the Fair Work Commission considers the long running Immigration Department pay dispute, dubbed the biggest industrial relations case since Qantas grounded its fleet in in 2011.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/immigration-department-pay-case-reaches-fair-work-after-4-years-20171013-gz0pon.html
    Quentin Dempster tells us that warrantless mass surveillance from CCTV cameras wired to a national facial recognition database is about to change Australia forever – and it must, he says.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/10/15/facial-recognition-video-surveillance/
    Thousands of Australians who’ve lived and worked in Britain could now be waiting for decades to transfer their retirement savings into an Australian superannuation account.
    http://www.smh.com.au/money/planning/thousands-of-aussies-caught-in-tougher-rules-to-transfer-british-pensions-20171012-gyzb6h.html
    The worsening ordeal of the HSC.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/hsc-is-robbing-parents-and-students-of-something-valuable-20171014-gz0zsr.html

  16. Good Morning

    Another bad Newspoll for Turnbull. Crying terror and destroying privacy with facial recognition has not won votes.

    On the electricity prices barely mentioned is that the costs are not just poles and wires but is also retail margins charged for electricity.

    So a good argument for government ownership.

  18. ChristineMilne: ACCC report based on same facts presented to 2 Senate Inquiries I instigated. smh.com.au/federal-politi… Lib/Lab knew yrs ago. No surprise.

    ChristineMilne: It was inconvenient for Lib Govt to admit networks huge driver of energy price rises when attack was on carbon price/ renewables. Big lie!

  24. A CET if property implemented would mean prices rise less than under BAU (Business as Usual).
    This was specified when Finkel released his report, but the government downplayed this and reports followed the government line.

  25. I don’t get why writers like Cohen refer to themselves in the third person. The article sounds as if it is paraphrasing another article Cohen has written, which would make the third person stance makes sense, but then he’s identified as the author at the top and bottom of the piece and there’s no link to any other article.

    No matter how credible he otherwise might be, it comes across as not only vain but desperate.

  26. Player One @ #123 Monday, October 16th, 2017 – 8:24 am

    daretotread @ #120 Monday, October 16th, 2017 – 8:20 am

    You do not have to agree with it but read.

    Well, all one can say is thank goodness the USA took your advice and elected that model of intelligence, calmness, rationality and stability Donald J Trump.

    Otherwise, we might have really been in trouble!

    ROFL : )

    Is dtt still trying to make us believe Trump is better than Hillary would have been?
    Pathetic.

  27. I feel like there needs to be a UN agency to intervene in these situations.

    Whenever anyone says “we need business tax cuts to compete with other countries”, this agency can sit the person down, and force them to play the Prisoner’s Dilemma until they understand it. Then, let them go and implement whatever policy they want.

    It’s pathetic seeing this race to the bottom crap.

  28. The alleged rort is why Abbott won. The media knew this. Went with the whole gotcha by interview by Gillard on what is a carbon tax instead of letting facts get in the way. Despite Gillard numerous times saying so.

    This is a time when even Bemused would support Gillard. He does not exclude facts from a debate like the media does.

    For a Coalition intent on destroying the carbon tax, the price hikes have been a gift – “proof” that the carbon tax is as ruinous as they predicted. Chris Dunstan, from the Institute for Sustainable Futures, thinks that what the networks have done over the past five years may actually be the secret to Tony Abbott’s success. “If electricity prices hadn’t doubled,” he says, “the carbon tax would not have been anything like the issue it was.”

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2014/july/1404136800/jess-hill/power-corrupts

  29. Yeah, guy’s pretty extensively canned — seen as a ‘useful idiot’ for Putin, who uses information which he must know is out of date or unfactual —

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2014/07/stephen_cohen_vladimir_putin_s_apologist_the_nation_just_published_the_most.html

    https://usefulstooges.com/2015/04/23/how-did-stephen-f-cohen-become-a-putin-fanboy/

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/meet-stephen-f-cohen-vladimir-putins-best-friend-in-the-american-media

    https://www.rferl.org/a/stephen-cohen-us-scholar-controversial-putin-apologist/26997584.html

  30. …so to answer my original question, Cohen would appear to be talking about himself in the third person because he’s reached the stage where no authority in his field still takes him seriously, but he wants it to appear as if he should be taken seriously.

  32. I love this from Crowe’s article in the GG
    “The government unveiled a series of policies in recent weeks and had grounds to expect a gain in the polls, given a two-party result of 46 to 54 per cent is below the trend for the year”

    I don’t think anyone, apart from government ministers thought much of the ‘good news’ policy announcements in the last couple of weeks.

    He also criticizes voters for wanting to continue support for renewables, but not to pay for it through increased power prices. He could ask how voters feel paying for support for coal mines and coal fired power stations.

  35. As mentioned in past. in the real world, people are focussed on paying their housing and car loans. Parents see how hard it is for their offspring to end re the Housing market due to risings costs and underemployment. Meanwhile Turnbull and co spent the better part of 18 months demonising those that utilise centrelink, which includes students, retirees, families with young children and the unemployed. And what do they give us robo debt and now Serco contracted to handle enquiries and the like.

    This govt is doing exactly what it intended.

  40. guytaur @ #116 Monday, October 16th, 2017 – 8:02 am

    Good Morning

    Another bad Newspoll for Turnbull. Crying terror and destroying privacy with facial recognition has not won votes.

    On the electricity prices barely mentioned is that the costs are not just poles and wires but is also retail margins charged for electricity.

    So a good argument for government ownership.

    But the ABC is spinning as hard as possible for the government, via the ‘story’ on power prices and the ACCC featuring on Robbie Buck, the news and AM, just in case you missed it the first or second time. The reports on the news and AM also featured Chester and Cormann yabbering on about power prices. Rodd Simms also featured heavily, contradicting Finkel, and laying the groundwork for the abandonment of the CET. Another willing dupe of this government apparently.

    Nowhere in this co-ordinated blitzkrieg of dubious information from our impartial government broadcaster was there any voice apart from the government’s and Simms.

    So the strategy, as if we didn’t know all ready is to blather on about abandoning the CET to lower power prices.

    Subtle they, or their media mates, are not.

  42. briefly @ #89 Monday, October 16th, 2017 – 12:51 am

    grimace

    ….. Put me down for a 105 seats.
    A uniform swing of enough to take out Stirling (6.12%) and Canning (6.79%) nets Labor 101 seats.

    I think it’s unlikely we’ll see a uniform national swing of 6.8%. This would suggest a national 2PP split approaching 57/43. This has only occurred twice before – in 1929 and 1943. A very good result would be a national 2PP split around 54/46, which would be Labor’s best result since 1946. I think this is obtainable….but it’s way too early to make predictions.

    Even so, I think it’s possible Labor will surprise on the upside, as occurred in WA. If the wish to change the Government becomes firmly fixed in the electorate and the competitive splits in the Right intensify, then Labor may win seats it has held only rarely in the past.

    The scenario I never thought of was a half senate election (brought up by someone else earlier) followed by a HoR election as late as possible. Such a decision on a part of Trumble would precipitate a slaughter at the ballot box as the impression Labor would sow would be of Trumble hiding from the electorate.

    WA has historically been a conservative state and has only rarely returned a 50+ TPP for Labor. If Stirling and Canning are won by Labor, then the WA Labor TPP will be well more than 50, and I think the swing in the eastern states will be much worse than the ~7% required to win these two seats.

    Making moves to save the furniture 18 months out from the election due date is an ominous sign.

  45. [lizzie
    If Canavan quits politics, which industry will he become lobbyist for? Only one guess allowed!    ]

    Which ever one his mum tells him to.

  47. I like this ‘summary’ of all the pollies not worried about the poll.

    Quick wrap of some of the interviews this morning: no one is worried about the Newspoll (that would be the one showing for the 21st time in a row, the government is less popular than Labor) and energy solutions are on their way.

    Paul Karp gave us a wrap on what Mathias Cormann had to say on energy a bit earlier – the finance minister also said he was not worried about the poll and as the next election approached “we are hopeful that we are able to convince a majority of people in the majority of seats to support the Coalition again”.

    Simon Birmingham also had a bit to say when chatting to Sky News – he won’t be distracted by polls, or former prime ministers (ahem, Tony Abbott) and is “ getting on with all these important issues like dealing with an energy crisis”.

    Speaking of our nation’s greatest onion advocate – he is coming up on Ray Hadley’s 2GB show imminently.

  49. [lizzie
    Gee guys, Canavan obviously has a rich and varied life ahead of him!    ]

    His opportunities are only limited by his mother’s imagination.

  50. This should be Labors line on CET.

    PM Gillard told us that the costs in electricity are the poles and wires.

    Rod Simms and the ACCC have confirmed this. Abbott lied his way through an election.

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