The one brand new poll for the week, from Essential Research, made so little change to the BludgerTrack voting intention numbers that I had to double check the result. There was also an infusion of new state breakdown data courtesy of Newspoll’s quarterly state-level results, but the only difference this has made is to add one to the Coalition tally in New South Wales and subtract one in Queensland. There’s big movement in Malcolm Turnbull’s favour on the leadership trend rating following new numbers from Essential Research, but this measure is over-sensitive to the vagaries of particular pollsters, which I’ve long been meaning to correct for. Full results at the bottom of the post.
Essential Research has also released its quarterly state voting intention results this week, which are accumulated from all of its polling over the past three months. In New South Wales, the Coalition has a steady lead of 51-49; in Victoria, Labor’s lead narrows from 53-47 to 52-48; in Queensland, Labor holds a steady lead of 54-46, which is better than they have been doing from other pollsters lately, with One Nation’s primary vote at a relatively modest 13%; in Western Australia, Labor’s lead is down from 55-45 to 54-46; and in South Australia, Labor has a steady lead of 52-48, with the Nick Xenophon Team’s primary vote at 18%. Read all about it here.
There has been some comment and complaint about Christmas things starting to creep into October. I don’t think the appearance of trees, Santa Clause and decorations in shops is getting any earlier. When I was a kid (c. early 60s) pre-Christmas was always well underway by about November 1.
What is different is Halloween. When I was a kid, I knew about Halloween (and Valantines Day, 4th of July and Thanksgiving) from TV, but we didn’t do any of those things here. Halloween is an old Celtic tradition which was carried on in the American colonies and thence the USA but never took root here. It’s only since about 2000 that anyone has been paying any attention here. I’m not sure how it happened but it seems to have been a successful push by businesses wanting to sell stuff – confectionery perhaps.
Can anyone tell me which party won each of the NSW bye election seats?
I can’t see any reference to them on the SMH website.
The 2PP swings against the Nationals are something to ponder on…
Murray = – 19.2% (contra SFF)
Cootamundra = -10.3% (contra Labor)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/murray-by-election-2017/results/
http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/cootamundra-by-election-2017/results/
There is a mood for change in the bush.
Fulvio:
The Nats retained both seats.
Fulvio Sammut
Can anyone tell me which party won each of the NSW bye election seats?
Try the ABC…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/blacktown-by-election-2017/results/
And Labor easily won Blacktown.
Thanks for that, ‘Fess, Briefly.
dave – My father a 7Div guy as well early 1940 until mark as ‘NSTF’ (not suitable for tropical service).
Once recovered he was sent back to Melbourne to do thing with new recruits. After a few weeks sleeping at home and out to Flemmington 6 days a week he was told to report to Vic Barracks.
He’d signed something silly when he resigned from the British Army in 1938 and Sandhurst trained Infantry officers were in demand to the extent that he was told to go home pack a kit bag and a ‘nice’ military policeman went with him to make sure he was on the next mail plane back to England.
Those falls correspond to about 30% of their previous support, as opposed to Orange where it was more 50%.
In Orange the National vote fell 34% to 31.6%.
In Cootamundra the National vote fell 20% to 45%
In Murray it fell 15% to 40%.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/blacktown-by-election-2017/commentary/
Anti-incumbent sentiment in the regions could cost the LNP a very large part of their base. In WA, federally, this could include Durack, Forrest and Canning. It will contribute to the defat of Porter in Pearce too. It could cost them a swag of seats in NSW – including New England – and Queensland.
The LNP are doubtless very aware of this. A lot of their positioning since the last election has been aimed at countering disaffection in their heartland. It’s clearly not working.
Steve777 @ #1001 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 11:10 am
In Victoria, Halloween seemed to get a small foothold back in the 70s or early 80s when Victoria imported some teachers from the US to make up a shortage.
It seems to have gradually metastasised from that, driven, I suspect, by commercial interests.
Valentines day seems to have followed a similar timing and trajectory so maybe those teachers were responsible for that too.
“In Victoria, Halloween seemed to get a small foothold back in the 70s or early 80s when Victoria imported some teachers from the US to make up a shortage.”
Halloween is certainly a factor here, i have a 14 year old daughter. She’s into Manga, Animation, drawing and cosplay. Halloween is an excuse to dress up. 🙂
The NSW Liberals really did not want to display their weakness in Metro Sydney by running a candidate in Blacktown. They must expect the worst in 2019.
The 2PP swings against the Nationals are something to ponder on…
Murray = – 19.2% (contra SFF)
Cootamundra = -10.3% (contra Labor)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/murray-by-election-2017/results/
http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/cootamundra-by-election-2017/results/
There is a mood for change in the bush.
No there is not, these results are typical of bi-elections and have similarities to the green vote in an election that does not really change anything.
and as for “The disintegration of the Right continues. Excellent situation” Disintegration do you know what the word means. Why the exaggeration where does it come from either exaggeration or messianic following.
The coalition may very well lose the next election but the pendulum will swing back and forward until we shuffle off.
Ctar –
lol – They have a way of making their point when they want to.
I see Blamey was anti General Lavarack, held him back wherever possible – claims of “defects of character”. Interesting coming from Blamey?
Lavarack certainly held in high regard as he should be.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Lavarack
My son is going to Halloween at Sydney Luna Park. Should be intense! They do this sort of thing really well. He’s going as Hunter S.Thompson. Scary!
Steve
It’s the Trick or Treat thingy that irritates me.
What is obvious from the By-election results is that the Coalition parties, Liberal nad Nationals, no longer have faith that people will preference them. Hence their, ‘Just Vote 1’ campaign. It smacks of a Trumpisation of Conservative politics. Lock in your base and count on them getting you over the line. Risky business.
This is the type of person Trump wants to run bodies like the EPA.
http://www.iflscience.com/policy/watch-this-trump-epa-nominee-literally-refuse-to-acknowledge-a-graph/
Speaking of trump, I bet he’s off golfing again this weekend. Tie this in with the fact that it’s people like him that overtly do not work on weekends but are quite happy to tell people who do work on weekends that they should have their Penalty Rates cut (well the Australian equivalent to Trump, thereof). So, really, all people have to keep saying is, when people like Trump, and their congeners here, start working weekends for the same money they get on weekdays, then Penalty Rates should stay.
The shortest IQ test, just 3 questions.
How will you go?
http://www.iflscience.com/brain/prove-your-smarts-with-the-worlds-shortest-iq-test/
One for the energy argues:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=L-ATa98gJm8
An American friend always breaks up when the town of Yass gets mentioned.
He pronounce’s it Y’Ass
I tell him I’m always rootin’ for him regardless
Fargo61 @ #949 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 9:00 am
swamprat has his own ‘Alternative Facts’. : )
jenauthor @ #1022 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 11:45 am
Well, that’s one way to deal with Climate Change, I suppose. Reap the whirlwind.
BiGD: 3/3.
If the patch of lilies started out at one square metre, it would more than cover the Pacific Ocean in 48 days. Then in would get scary.
“He’s going as Hunter S.Thompson. Scary!”
Lol! Seriously, i suspect my oftensprung and yours would probably get on well. 🙂
C@tmomma
Speaking of trump, I bet he’s off golfing again this weekend.
*******************************************************************
Golfer-In-Chief: Trump Has Now Spent 27% Of His Presidency On A Golf Course
Trump loaded up his golf clubs and took another taxpayer-funded trip to one of his properties on Saturday.
As the NBC News tracker calculates, Trump’s latest visit to his club in Virginia marks the 72nd day of his presidency he is spending on a golf course and the 92nd time day he is visiting one of his own properties. In total, Trump has been in office for 267 days.
According to some quick, back-of-the-napkin math, that means that Trump has spent 27 percent of his presidency golfing and more than a third at one of his ritzy properties.
Meanwhile, millions of Americans are now at risk of seeing their health care obliterated, Puerto Rico continues to recover from a devastating storm, the Iran nuclear agreement has been abandoned by the U.S., California wildfires are still raging – and, by the way, there have been no steps taken by the White House or Congress to prevent another Las Vegas-style mass shooting from happening again.
It’s one thing to occasionally take a break, as just about every president has done. But for a guy who is so miserably failing at his job at a time when so much is unfolding across the globe, perhaps he should spend a weekend or two at the White House studying up and doing his job.
If Trump can’t do that, then he should take a one-way flight to one of his properties and never come back.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/10/14/golfer-in-chief-trump-spent-27-presidency-golf.html
“The shortest IQ test, just 3 questions.
How will you go?
http://www.iflscience.com/brain/prove-your-smarts-with-the-worlds-shortest-iq-test/”
2 out of three. I’m Homer i guess. 🙁
Republican Senator Corker blasts Trump for ‘castrating’ Tillerson
U.S. Republican Senator Bob Corker stepped up his public feud with Donald Trump on Friday, saying the U.S. president’s undermining of his top diplomat was like castrating him in public.
U.S. Republican Senator Bob Corker stepped up his public feud with Donald Trump on Friday, saying the U.S. president’s undermining of his top diplomat was like castrating him in public.
Corker told the Washington Post in an interview that Trump had undercut Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s efforts to enlist China in reining in North Korea’s nuclear program by denigrating the diplomat.
“You cannot publicly castrate your own secretary of state” without limiting the options for dealing with North Korea, Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, told the Post.
Trump took to Twitter the next day, saying Tillerson was “wasting his time” trying to negotiate with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/10/14/republican-senator-corker-blasts-trump-castrating-tillerson.html
imacca @ #1030 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 11:27 am
3.
Larry Flynt is offering $10 million for info resulting in Trump’s impeachment
Larry Flynt, the founder and publisher of Hustler magazine is offering a $10 million reward for information leading to the impeachment of President Donald Trump.
Fox Anchor Liz Claman, who broke the story, tweeted an image of an advert for the money. Flynt himself subsequently retweeted the story. Hustler had not replied to a request for comment at the time of publication.
The advert says: “Buried in Trump’s top-secret tax returns or in other records from his far-flung investments there may be a smoking gun.”
“The attempt to impeach Donald Trump will strike many as a sour grapes plot by Democrats to overturn a legitimate election,” it continues.
“But there is a strong case to be made that the last election was illegitimate in many ways—and that after nine tumultuous months in office, Trump has proven he’s dangerously unfit to exercise the extreme power accrued by our new ‘unitary executive.’”
Flynt also offered a similar reward in 1998, during the impeachment trial of former President Bill Clinton. He has also shared clips from Hustler criticizing Trump, calling him a “buffoon” and a “narcissist,” and a piece calling on the Democrats to be “more than the party of no.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/larry-flynt-is-offering-10-million-for-info-resulting-in-trumps-impeachment/
dave – that’s why they were called the ‘Silent Seventh’. Blamey made sure that Laverack got no publicity. Lavarack was not only in charge of the Australians in the Syria/Lebanon campaign but also the British who advanced from Iraq. It was a well run thing when not much else was going right.
Weinstein takedown leaves Trump sex assault accusers frustrated at lack of justice for themselves
While women in the entertainment industry and beyond may rejoice and feel vindicated by the public downfall of Hollywood producer and sexual predator Harvey Weinstein, BuzzFeed’s Kendall Taggart and Jessica Garrison say that one group of women feels stung by the lack of justice in their own cases.
In 2016, more than a dozen women came forward with stories of sexual harassment, kissing, groping and other inappropriate conduct by then-candidate Donald Trump. Trump denied the allegations and his attorney Marc Kasowitz threatened to sue the women and any publication that ran their stories.
That lawsuit never materialized, but the women who sacrificed their anonymity “watched the man they say humiliated and abused them get elected president of the United States,” said BuzzFeed.
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/weinstein-takedown-leaves-trump-sex-assault-accusers-frustrated-at-lack-of-justice-for-themselves/
For the medico peeps at the pub
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11933127
‘Facts matter — not puffery’: Ex-US Attorney explains why Trump’s interview with Mueller will be a huge mistake
Former US Attorney Barbara McQuade briefed MSNBC viewers on the legal strategy at play in reports that President Donald Trump’s legal defense team is considering offering special counsel Bob Mueller an interview with the president.
The Politico report was written by Darren Samuelsohn, who joined McQuade as a guest of anchor Alex Witt.
Witt asked McQuade, a former US Attorney who was ousted by President Trump, “were you to be representing the president, would you advise that he do that interview?”
“Strategically, sometimes you would like your client to be interviewed quickly, to get the matter behind them or to deny Robert Mueller and his team the benefit of educating themselves based on other interviews with other witnesses and the review other documents,” McQuade explained. “However, with this client — President Trump — if I were his lawyer, I would not be advising him to go in and conduct this interview, just because he has proven himself so unreliable in telling the truth.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/facts-matter-not-puffery-ex-us-attorney-explains-why-trumps-interview-with-mueller-will-be-a-huge-mistake/
Children going from house to house asking strangers for sweets never struck me as a good idea. And all that stuff about ghosts and spirits never seemed that healthy. But maybe I’m just a grumpy old man.
Halloween – All Hallow’s Eve, the night before All Saints Day, celebrating those who got to Heaven. Then you’ve got All Souls Day on November 2 – in Catholic tradition, a day to pray for the souls in Purgatory, to ask God to forgive loved ones their peccadillos and infractions – so they can get to Heaven sooner. Then Halloween – for those who dipped out altogether.
Madman with a nuclear trigger’: Ex-Watergate reporter compares ‘unraveling’ Trump to ‘guilty as hell’ Nixon
A journalist who covered Watergate sees parallels between President Donald Trump’s current unraveling and the downfall of Richard Nixon
“With Nixon, the unraveling was happening behind closed doors. We knew — the media knew, the Congress knew, members of his own party knew — he was crazy as a loon and guilty as hell, but we didn’t learn the full extent of it until much, much later. But when we caught a glimpse of the man as he really was on the tapes, it was shocking, even terrifying,” Truscott explained. “That this man was the president! That this man had access to the nuclear trigger! Something had to be done.”
“With Trump, the unraveling is happening right out in the open, every single day, several times a day,” Truscott suggested. “The fact that it’s happening before our eyes in real time has rendered his insanity and criminality somehow ordinary.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/madman-with-a-nuclear-trigger-ex-watergate-reporter-compares-unraveling-trump-to-guilty-as-hell-nixon/
Observations on Halloween.
In the late 80s when my sons were in primary school there were a few Halloween night “incidents” around the local area so their school decided there would be no Halloween stuff in the classrooms and parents were sort of discouraged from letting kids take part. That was a really good idea in my book.
All went quiet and over the decade that followed the area’s demographic changed and there were not so many young kids around.
In the last few years we have had a new influx of younger families, many of them Asian and Halloween is back on the agenda. Boy do they like to dress up. And just a couple of sweets doesn’t seem cut it as a treat.
Last year I went out to avoid them (yes I am a grumpy old man) and this year I will be on the road.
A few differences between Nixon and Trump. While Nixon wasn’t exactly a great guy, especially in private, he was intelligent, mostly sane and rational and had dignity.
BK
I got three, vwithout cheating too!
And i am an idiot.
We never did halloween as kids nor do I remember it being a thing at school.
But we did used to do Guy Fawkes night with bonfire and everything at a friend’s farm. I don’t know when we stopped doing that, but these days burn restrictions would likely mean you couldn’t have a bonfire in early Nov.
My only reference to Halloween growing up were mentions in Charlie Brown cartoons.
It was an American thing with little cultural significance to Australia.
The concept of “Trick or Treat” to me seems like a training programme in how to run an extortion racket.
I wonder how much of its increase in prominence in Australia can be put down to Harry Potter?
shellbell @ #991 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 10:36 am
As well as speed, I’m told number plates of passing cars are scanned into the computer which does the auto checking while the cops watch porn on their mobile phones waiting for the thing to go Ding. No aspersions cast about our wonderful NSW police, just repeating scuttle butt for scuttle butt’s sake.
A good find from over the road
Guy Fawkes day was all about terrorists with a religious agenda being caught and punished. Maybe the Federal Government would like to revive it.
poroti:
So true.
Confessions
Yes guy fawkes night, also known as cracker night, was the best, even for catholics. Haha. I was sorry when it was discountinued.
As for silly halloween. Just another yank import. It is a commercialisation of Samhain the Celtic festival. Of course the Catholic All Souls day was derived from Samhain too.
Simple question. Can Robert Mueller access Trump’s Tax Returns?