BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Two new polls this week bring very little change to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

First up, note new threads below on this weekend’s elections in New Zealand and Germany.

Now to the matter at hand: new polls this week from Essential Research and YouGov have done next to nothing to alter the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, the biggest change being a reversal of a Greens gain last week. The Coalition nonetheless makes a net gain of two on the seat projection, being up one apiece in Queensland and South Australia. No new results on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,226 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. SteelyDan – the offender has been arrested and charged for his alleged attack, so who keeps going on about this supposed violence against Abbott, when he has joint responsibility for inflicting violence on LGBT people? Oh that’s right, the no campaign.

    How about you wake up.

  2. ‘Don’t you ever wonder why the ‘No’ side is so under-represented?’

    …because the majority of us are rational human beings who are willing to listen to what the gay community want?

  3. boomy1 @ #125 Saturday, September 23rd, 2017 – 12:14 pm

    I’m woefully misinformed obviously But with 30 and 40% of the vote you can’t win can you.

    Who here has ever claimed otherwise?

    What I can’t fathom is why you are playing this game.. You are not stupid but you have an agenda. Whose, I’m thinking. You are as whiney as Christopher Pyne but don’t have his gay marriage thoughts.So who are you…

    I am nobody you would know. And yet, you probably know many people quite like me. You just don’t realize it.

  4. boomy

    “Tim Wilson” = Tick.

    I was actually thinking of Trent Zimmerman as the very nearby example.

    Both handy when you want to run the ‘broad church’ defence but useless as local members.

  5. JimmyDoyle obviously you have not read my posts. You have come in late don’t know what is going on but spied a Tory and started to froth at the mouth and attacked.

  6. ‘But the more homogeneous PB becomes (and it has become much more homogenous recently)..’

    Sorry, there was no Golden Age when PB was balanced in the way you imply. In the early days of Rudd, even William was wont to rile against the lack of diversity – we were all Rudd groupies back then.

    Strangely, though, the reason PB skews to the left is that the righties find it impossible to mount rational arguments in support of their views. Even ‘mod libs’ like ModLib gave up on trying to defend the indefensible.

    …which is probably the core of the ‘problem’ in the present instance, too.

  7. briefly @ #129 Saturday, September 23rd, 2017 – 12:19 pm

    How do you know that PB is homogenous? How do you know it is becoming more or less homogenous? Or more or less relevant? And relevant to whom? To other bludgers? PB is about news and discussion.

    Because I have been here for years. PB is not so interesting and informative as it used to be, and many of the dissenting voices no longer contribute. There is very little discussion or analysis of events any more, and what effect they may have on the polls – just cheering and baiting.

    Perhaps this is just the current obsession with same sex marriage, and things will return to normal once the ALP has legislated for it. I hope so.

  8. Player One

    …So who are you…

    I am nobody you would know. And yet, you probably know many people quite like me. You just don’t realise it

    I think it goes without saying that we’re all nobodies.

  9. ‘To psephology. Isn’t that why we are all here? ‘

    No. That’s a furphy. William has repeatedly stated that he intended it to be a site for political discussion, and the PollBludger name wasn’t a statement of purpose.

  10. steelydan
    Keep Abbott. he is yours. He is entertaining and good for the Left.

    Take the last hilarious episode. No man who was a man would go on radio and admit to such a piffling incident.

  11. frednk @ #136 Saturday, September 23rd, 2017 – 12:25 pm

    The problem with the argument is probable GG not accepting the second premise even though there is a royal commission to support it.

    The problem with your argument is assuming that all catholics support the antics of those who clearly neither obey nor respect the teachings of the church they work for. Just because they are hypocrites does not mean GG is.

  12. Puffy, The Magic Dragon.

    steelydan

    Keep Abbott. he is yours. He is entertaining and good for the Left.

    Take the last hilarious episode. No man who was a man would go on radio and admit to such a piffling incident.

    **************************************************

    ……. or not unless he wanted to milk it for all his worth !!!!

  13. hahaha Oh zoomster the world you live in, must be nice. yes meha baba and the like left because he could not mount a credible argument. Loved Meha’s comments hope he is still live and kicking.

  14. JimmyDoyle @ #143 Saturday, September 23rd, 2017 – 12:33 pm

    This is what people like Steely Dan and PlayerOne don’t get: they have lent their respectability and credibility to a hate campaign.

    Oh please. Which of us is supporting this imbecilic survey and which of us tried to point out how disgraceful the whole process was, how wrong it was to determine minority rights by a self-selected survey, and how likely it was to end up as a hate-fest from both sides?

  15. Steely Dan, I’ve read all your posts and stand by what I said. By defending Abbott cynical exploitation of imaginary yes campaign extremists, you lend the no campaign (a hate campaign by a different name) legitimacy.

    I don’t froth at the mouth at the idea of you being a conservative. You can’t help having an illness. I urge you to seek help.

  16. I suspect the reason that there are less conservatives here now is that they are embarrassed by the Turnbull government and are beginning to realise it is indefensible.

  17. PlayerOne
    and how likely it was to end up as a hate-fest from both sides?

    thank you for proving my point. You lend legitimacy to the no campaign.

  18. Steelydan @11:18.
    Oh good, I touched a nerve. Please point out where I called for headbutting Abbott, and which facts about the pathetic moron inflicted on us by you Rupertarians are incorrect. BTW – you do realize the origin of your nym – William S. Burrough’s Steely Dan 111 from Yokohama?

  19. Puff your right and we are paying the price. You must cringe a little and give a little involuntary shudder when you see Latham around the traps though. Please lets not get into a Latham v Abbott argument, Abbott became prime minister, you win.

  20. zoomster @ #152 Saturday, September 23rd, 2017 – 12:53 pm

    ‘Don’t you ever wonder why the ‘No’ side is so under-represented?’

    …because the majority of us are rational human beings who are willing to listen to what the gay community want?

    Another one making my point for me about how one side refuses to accept there is any possible legitimacy to any opinion differing from their own.

  21. Player One
    briefly @ #129 Saturday, September 23rd, 2017 – 12:19 pm

    …PB is not so interesting and informative as it used to be, and many of the dissenting voices no longer contribute. There is very little discussion or analysis of events any more, and what effect they may have on the polls – just cheering and baiting.

    Perhaps this is just the current obsession with same sex marriage, and things will return to normal once the ALP has legislated for it. I hope so.

    Strange. I’m a long-time bludger. I think the place has improved. The discussion has more nuance. Less brawling. (Who can ever forget Frank’s ranting?) Some of the conversations have been running now for years. I think, in particular, of the input from Boer on the environment, which has been a stable theme for a decade and for which I’m very thankful.

    On ME/SSM, it’s hardly an obsession. It’s simply topical. There’s a semblance of a poll being run. It’s entirely natural that we’d be focussing on it and the events that surround it. The very rewarding thing on ME, for mine, have been the contributions from Itza and from Lord HawHaw, from CT, grimace and cc as well as others, that have together leavened the exchanges.

  22. P1

    Events of all types influence trends in voting and voters perceptions of politicians and parties.

    Even policies, sometimes …

    If the discussion on here was limited to questions about how ’rounding’ works and whinges about it ‘not adding up to 100%’ I doubt there would be very many people making comment on WB’s reporting of the polls. William himself offers up plenty of opinion that doesn’t relate strictly to the statistical aspects of polls.

  23. Greensborough Growler Posted Friday, November 9, 2012 at 10:38 pm | Permalink The call for a RC is a refrain that is often heard. However, can anyone really point to the substantive outcomes that may result from such an inquiry? It seems that many have already made up their minds and are now looking for a Government funded inquisition to provide the evidence to support their bigotry/opinions/special knowledge.

  24. No Wombat talking about your post banging on about Gina Rhinehart owning the liberal party and Abbott’s only job was to get Murdoch a knighthood.

    Steelydan Yes I do it was a steam powered dildo sounds fun but potentially dangerous. I did not choose it knowing this of course but it did not take PB’s long to inform me.

  25. CTar one

    I am nobody you would know. And yet, you probably know many people quite like me. You just don’t realize it.

    I just knew it! And I know who they are in the clown cars saying clown things, by clowns and for clowns,

  26. ‘… one side refuses to accept there is any possible legitimacy to any opinion differing from their own.’

    It’s a vote about whether same sex people should be allowed to marry. I have taken my cue from the people this will actually affect – the gay community.

    I have not, through any post here, denied anyone the right to voice a different opinion, and only yesterday posted that religious vilification was not acceptable.

    Your habit of lumping people together rather than differentiating leads you often to this kind of prejudice and discrimination.

    I am an individual, not part of any group think.

  27. ‘Which of us is supporting this imbecilic survey and which of us tried to point out how disgraceful the whole process was, how wrong it was to determine minority rights by a self-selected survey, and how likely it was to end up as a hate-fest from both sides?’

    Basically every poster here.

  28. Player One, you haven’t been on PB (not that we do dick-measuring contests here), as long as I and many others, like briefly, CTar1, Puffy, Boerwar and BK, have. So don’t presume to throw your weight, and opinions, around as if you have been. Show a little bit more respect than what you are. If not for people’s opinions, then for the fact they are entitled to them, even if you don’t like them or agree with them. Respectfully disagree.

  29. Player One

    Well, I’ve voted Yes but I can also understand why some Nos have their reasons. What I find absurd is that instead of reasoned discussion, Shelton and his mob are bringing forward completely irrelevant points to support their opinion, and think it is the use of those irrelevancies that zoomster is criticising.

  30. lizzie:

    I get that this debate is causing anxiety for many gay people, but when a gay person starts attacking those who are on the same side of the debate as them, ie advocates for marriage equality, I think it’s time they had a long hard look at things to gain some perspective.

  31. Jimmy By defending Abbott cynical exploitation of imaginary yes campaign extremists, you lend the no campaign (a hate campaign by a different name) legitimacy.
    If you read my posts then you will please show me where I said anything that is even remotely like the above statement.
    Of course you can’t because I did not.

  32. C@t

    While you’re here. I have been enjoying (and getting higher and higher) at Bookworm whenever I need almost) mindless distraction, but suddenly it’s not available. Do you have any ideas for substitute?

  33. IaD

    ‘The Catholic Church has signalled it will oppose any move to force priests to report details of child sexual abuse received during confession, despite calls from the royal commission to make it a legal requirement.’

    IMO, this is a furphy in the sense that even if it were brought in, it would not make a skerrick of difference.

    The following reasons pertain:

    1. No one much goes to personal confession any more.

    2. The point of confession is absolution. The first thing a priest would say to somone who confessed to child sexual abuse would be no absolution without you reporting yourself to the authorities.

    I repeat, there is no evidence that there is ANY child sex abuse currently by RC priests.

    IMO, the people who are mixing up their tenses as a basis for claiming that GG supports child rape should be utterly ashamed of themselves.

  34. Player One, you haven’t been on PB (not that we do dick-measuring contests here), as long as I and many others, like briefly, CTar1, Puffy, Boerwar and BK, have.

    Length of time on PB has no effect whatsoever on the quality of the person’s posts.

  35. Steam-powered dildo @1:14pm.
    https://static1.squarespace.com/static/532d310be4b02b8c351070dd/t/533f8238e4b034a40915dccc/1396671032591/?format=750w
    So Gina the Hutt was only being kind to all those wedding attendees from the Limited News Pary? And please point out where I said that Rupert’s desire was Abbott’s only job.

    Your comprehension, logic and attribution fit your politics.

    “I did not mean that Conservatives are generally stupid; I meant, that stupid persons are generally Conservative. I believe that to be so obvious and undeniable a fact that I hardly think any hon. Gentleman will question it.
    [John Stuart Mill, in a Parliamentary debate with the Conservative MP, John Pakington, May 31, 1866.]”

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