YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10

A deeper look into YouGov’s latest numbers, which are not unusual in finding the major parties evenly matched on the primary vote, but well out on a limb in having the Coalition slightly ahead on two-party preferred.

I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.

The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

997 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10”

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  1. Cormann is effective because he keeps to message* and his style of delivery is guaranteed put an insomniac to sleep.

    * Except of course, “Bill Shorten will make a great Prime Minister.”

  3. Shorten very strong indeed on ABC24 just now about Barnaby and Nash needing to stand aside now given High Court setting down of dates for October hearing.

  8. Thank all re’ my health. What started as some discomfort about 5 years ago and a ‘ban’ on long distance flights for a while has progressed a bit.

    The ‘no fly’ bit put a real dent in my normal lifestyle where I used to be back and forward to London about twice a year. That was quite affordable for me as I had no accommodation expense in London and frequently my airfares were paid for by my then employer (H.M.G.).

    Those days are gone now well and truly.

    (kezza is quite intuitive at times. The only thing I can recall mentioning was to do with using free internet at a hospital a couple of times! Her mention that she used to find my posts often cryptic but now she’s ‘on to me’ must be right.)

    Anyway enough about me, I’d much rather find some other thing to whinge about and there’s no shortage of things going on in domestic politics and internationally to do plenty of that!

    —–

    vic – Sorry to see you’ve lost a brother-in-law. ‘In-Laws’ – like them or lump them they are family.

  9. BigD
    * Except of course, “Bill Shorten will make a great Prime Minister.”

    Yes, that was hilarious. Cormann says “Bill Shorten” more than anyone else in OZ. He says it automatically to give himself time to decide which generic “on message” to shove in next.

    While the L-NP obsession probably has suppressed Shorten’s popularity, the constant negativity has not proven effective where it matters (TPP).

  12. ajm @ #841 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 11:27 am

    Check out Katherine Harper’s bio . I reckon she works for Mesma

    “Dr Katherine Harper completed her PhD at the University of Sydney. She has since worked in international development and foreign affairs policy”

    If its the same person, her Linked In profile suggests that she now works for DIBP, in other words, Dutton.

  15. Morrison likes to blame Labor rather than just Shorten. He probably thought Shorten wouldn’t go the distance. It will be interesting to see if he changes from “It’s all Labor’s fault” to “It’s all Shorten’s fault”. Shorten should take it as a compliment. He has them worried.

  16. frednk @ #734 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 7:43 am

    P1 you have posted on pollbludger acres of rubbish. This article was written by someone who understands the industry. If you are actually interested in the topic it is a good read:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/aug/24/coal-in-decline-an-energy-industry-on-life-support

    What on earth have you been smoking? Coal dust?

    If you are going to accuse others of posting rubbish, you probably should look in a mirror first.

  17. CTar1

    Thank all re’ my health. What started as some discomfort about 5 years ago and a ‘ban’ on long distance flights for a while has progressed a bit.

    ****************************************

    As long as you can still get behind the wheel of the Merc and terrorise the streets of Canberra then I’m sure we all at PB wish you good health and good luck for a LONG time yet Ctar1 …..

  18. The need for Barnaby to stand aside is actually critical.

    On RN this am Prof Twomey spoke of the risk that any ministerial decision Barnaby makes since he has known he is a NZ citizen would be open to legal challenge if he is ruled ineligible. His decisions prior to knowledge are apparently okay under a common law rule of de facto authority. But this would not apply now since the facts relevant to him being ruled ineligible are known and ignorance of the law is no excuse. Further, the 3 month Constitutional leeway for ministers to be eligible to sit would have ended last year.

    He is the DPM and, should MT be suddenly hit by a Paddington bus or swept away in a Chinese sub he would be the acting PM. As acting PM he would need to make decisions with legal ramifications every day. We are at risk of a political crisis of mammoth proportions and yet the news media play on as if there was nothing to worry about.

    Barnaby as DPM needs to be like Caesar’s wife.

  19. Apparently more stuff about to drop on Senator Roberts status. Some who wanted to join his matter were rejected by the HC, so off to the media they go…

  20. A principal weakness of the Turnbull government is its mismanagement of issues. As issues break, they don’t seem to have any political, policy, or communications strategies to handle them effectively. They are mostly reactive, rather than proactive, ultimately forced to run a high-risk position according to someone else’s agenda.

    Their initial responses are often ill considered, and their actions from the hip. More often than not they soon lose control of the issue, remaining stuck pretty much at the mercy of their own incompetence as events further unfold.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/turnbulls-lack-of-control-on-full-display-20170824-gy2y2u.html

  21. That is about 6 weeks away.
    I guess by then they will get tired of asking Bill for his paperwork.

    If he had handed them over, even if all in order, the right would have proclaimed it as a ‘win’.

    Doc Evatt not withstanding, I feel the left hasn’t had much luck before the High Court, and on that basis am not feeling confiden on either the SSM or S44 cases.

  22. C@tmomma @ #840 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 11:22 am

    And on this subject he is more than correct. Inequality is going to be the big kahuna issue at the next election. Only last night at our branch meeting we were told by our newest member (age ~ 45, married with a couple of kids, does the big commute every day to work), that the reason he joined the Labor Party(and this is a guy with not a lot of spare time, as you can see, but he did make the effort to join and come along), the overriding issue of concern for him, was the issue of Inequality and how it is affecting him, his family, their future and many of his friends also.

    C@t, the oft reviled Laura Tingle said some months ago on Insiders that whoever addresses inequality wins. I was struck by the clarity of it enough to tap it out on PB in real time.

  26. adrian @ #865 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 12:16 pm

    ajm @ #841 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 11:27 am

    Check out Katherine Harper’s bio . I reckon she works for Mesma

    “Dr Katherine Harper completed her PhD at the University of Sydney. She has since worked in international development and foreign affairs policy”

    If its the same person, her Linked In profile suggests that she now works for DIBP, in other words, Dutton.

    That cap fits.

  27. DTT

    I’ve been watching the diplomatic ‘moves’ between the Saudi’s and Iran.

    The stand out thing that piqued my interest was that it followed almost immediately after the Saudi’s had the bans slapped on Qutar. I doubt that the other UAE members were very enthusiastic about this but they’d have little choice in it.

    That Iraq has been the ‘conduit’ for some of this is no surprise as in it’s current state it makes a great place to wage a war.

    As you’ve suggested there’s some obvious groupings and then some not so obvious one and, of course the geographic realities.

    That the Saudi’s and Iran could come to an agreement now about which states are in which camp doesn’t seem impossible.

    I do wonder about north Africa in all this. I think the Egyptians would just like to be left out of it but the Saudi’s seem to have the ‘wood’ on them, for example I was surprised when it came out the UAE air craft were bombing in Libya from Egyptian air bases.

  28. Barney in Go Dau @ #832 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 11:15 am

    Just thinking of the Katherine Harper piece it struck me as being very similar to P1’s position on the issue.

    Not so. I am not voting ‘no’, and not suggesting others do so. Our only point of commonality seems to be that we both agree SSM is inevitable. I am therefore boycotting, which is a protest against the process itself, not against SSM. The difference seems to be lost on many here.

  30. Forcing welfare recipients to submit to drug tests will bring a new crime wave to Sydney’s west, the federal government has been warned.

    People who return positive results will lose control of their payments and critics claim they will find new ways to feed their addictions.

    Notice how Truffles and his team never acknowledge any qualified advice? If this goes through, the local police should keep detailed records.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/nsw/a/36803940/government-warned-welfare-drug-testing-plan-will-backfire/?cmp=st

  31. Player One @ #881 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 12:28 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #832 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 11:15 am

    Just thinking of the Katherine Harper piece it struck me as being very similar to P1’s position on the issue.

    Not so. I am not voting ‘no’, and not suggesting others do so. Our only point of commonality seems to be that we both agree SSM is inevitable. I am therefore boycotting, which is a protest against the process itself, not against SSM. The difference seems to be lost on many here.

    P1, in that a boycott is a free kick to the No vote, you are actually voting No. So sayeth Michael Kirby, for whose opinion you expressed admiration.

  33. Player One @ #885 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 12:34 pm

    ItzaDream @ #857 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 12:07 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #835 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 11:15 am

    Just thinking of the Katherine Harper piece it struck me as being very similar to P1’s position on the issue.

    You read me.

    If you are implying I might be Katherine Harper, then you have clearly not understood either one of us.

    P1, I don’t for a second think you might be Katherine Harper, but you’re right, I certainly don’t understand either of you.

  34. ItzaDream @ #881 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 12:34 pm

    P1, in that a boycott is a free kick to the No vote, you are actually voting No. So sayeth Michael Kirby, for whose opinion you expressed admiration.

    Michael Kirby’s logic is impeccable …

    MICHAEL KIRBY, FORMER HIGH COURT JUDGE: I think advocacy groups should be seeking to persuade their fellow citizens who are in Parliament to abandon this idea.

    JULIA HOLMAN: Former High Court Judge Michael Kirby says he will grudgingly vote in the postal vote, but others will not.

    MICHAEL KIRBY: There will be some members of the gay community, my partner Johann included, who won’t vote under any conditions.

    They regard this as completely exceptional and irregular and a hair-brained scheme that they won’t participate in.

    In my own case, if there is no court challenge or no successful court challenge and if the government members don’t come to their senses and terminate this very bad precedent for our governance, then I will myself be certainly voting “yes” in the vote.

    Sadly, your logic is not.

    (From http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2017/s4716552.htm)

  35. [ItzaDream
    …

    P1, I don’t for a second think you might be Katherine Harper, but you’re right, I certainly don’t understand either of you.]

    Lack of a cognitive argument will do that to you. 🙂

  36. I’d be interested in hearing an expert opinion that didn’t think Cormanator will get a 7 blot shellacking that relied on more than “you can’t predict what the HC will do”.

  38. C@t, the oft reviled Laura Tingle said some months ago on Insiders that whoever addresses inequality wins. I was struck by the clarity of it enough to tap it out on PB in real time.

    Itza,
    It really hurt this guy to have to move his family from Sydney to the Central Coast as he could not afford to live there any more! He saw that as very wrong.

    The middle is being squeezed, just like in America. At least in Australia there is a political party that is taking the issue seriously.

  39. @ P1 -people should be judged by the predictable outcomes of their actions.

    It is predictable that the government, and the media, will present non ‘voters’ as people who do not care enough about ME to bother sending a letter. Noting that people who return the form with a dick drawn on the paper instead of a yes or no will be lumped in with people who didn’t respond at all.

    It is predictable that the vast majority of Australians will believe the media.

    It is predictable that without a significant boycott, Yes will win.

    It is predictable that with enough of a boycott to allow a no win, the media will ensure ME is not a significant issue in the next election, because they will dismiss it as something Australian’s don’t care about enough to send a letter.

    Regardless of whether any of the above is fair, it is how the world works.

    I am judging you by the predictable outcomes of your actions, and that judgement is harsh.

  40. If religious schools in Aust could ‘teach what they want’ we’d have a generation of mostly rich kids who believe the world was created in 6 days and that history started 5ooo years ago. Oh and men & dinosaurs walked the earth together.

  41. Player One @ #887 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 12:41 pm

    ItzaDream @ #883 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 12:38 pm

    P1, I don’t for a second think you might be Katherine Harper, but you’re right, I certainly don’t understand either of you.

    Did you understand Michael Kirby?

    Yes. He said his original instinct was to boycott the vote, however, upon hearing Bill Shorten give his speech to parliament stating the reasons why we should not boycott, he changed his mind and will now vote, ‘Yes’.

  42. Player One @ #890 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 12:41 pm

    ItzaDream @ #883 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 12:38 pm

    P1, I don’t for a second think you might be Katherine Harper, but you’re right, I certainly don’t understand either of you.

    Did you understand Michael Kirby?

    Yes, it’s fairly clear in plain English:

    He later clarified that his partner of 48 years, Johan van Vloten, does not intend to vote but said he would participate in the ballot because he was “disinclined to allow the opponents of marriage equality to have a free kick”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/12/marriage-equality-the-only-thing-worse-than-having-this-postal-vote-is-losing-it

  43. Voice Endeavour @ #889 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 12:43 pm

    I am judging you by the predictable outcomes of your actions, and that judgement is harsh.

    You are also judging about 15% of the gay community who will also boycott. You are also judging Michael Kirby’s partner who will boycott, and you are also judging Michael Kirby himself, who accepts that this is a legitimate position to take.

    You are quite a judgmental little sod, aren’t you?

  44. In a surprise twist, Senator Canavan’s barrister, David Bennett, conceded that it was “irrelevant” that Senator Canavan’s mother had applied for Italian citizenship for her son in 2005 – because he’d been a citizen by descent since he was two years old.

    Mr Bennett said there had been a decision of an Italian court in 1983 – when Senator Canavan was two years old – that ruled Italian citizenship could be passed by descent through a child’s mother, not just their father.

    That decision, he said, meant both Senator Canavan and his mother Maria became Italian citizens in 1983, even though neither was born in Italy.

    Google hax

    mp-citizenship-fiasco-reaches-high-court-live-coverage

    So he threw his mum under a bus for nothing. he is now in exactly the same situation as a couple of other people.

    He might as well resign from parliament now. Does he really need the extra month and a half of salary that badly?

  47. Windover

    His decisions prior to knowledge are apparently okay under a common law rule of de facto authority. But this would not apply now since the facts relevant to him being ruled ineligible are known and ignorance of the law is no excuse.

    It’s very much an undeniable bit of logic.

    If Turnbull went on leave or O/S surely they would have someone else act as PM.

  48. ItzaDream @ #892 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 12:48 pm

    He later clarified that his partner of 48 years, Johan van Vloten, does not intend to vote but said he would participate in the ballot because he was “disinclined to allow the opponents of marriage equality to have a free kick”.

    How you can quote this without comprehending that it demolishes your own argument is quite bizarre.

  49. At p1 – so you don’t deny that the predictable consequences of your actions are to make the world a shittier place, thanks, that’s all I needed.

    You can call me a sod all you like. Won’t change anything.

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