Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research goes the other way from Newspoll on voting intention, while both pollsters suggest the same-sex marriage plebiscite will record a high participation rate and a resounding yes vote.

Essential Research moves a point in favour of the Coalition this week as a particularly strong result for Labor a fortnight ago washes out of the two-week rolling average, leaving Labor’s lead at 53-47. Primary votes are only provided for the minor parties, so we’ll have to wait on that for the release of the full report later today (UPDATE: here it is: Coalition steady on 37%, Labor down two to 37%, Greens steady on 9%, One Nation steady on 8%). The poll also finds 33% in favour of committing military support to the United States in the event of conflict with North Korea, with 38% opposed and 26% uncommitted. Sixty-one per cent believed parliament should have a say on the matter, with only 22% favouring the prime ministerial prerogative. On the question of the biggest threats to global security, The Guardian relates the results the most favoured responses were, in descending order, terrorism, North Korean aggression, climate change, US aggression, Chinese aggression and Russian aggression.

Essential also provides one of two sets of new numbers on the same-sex marriage plebiscite/survey, the other being a second tranche of results from the weekend’s Newspoll. Both record similarly strong majorities saying they will participate: 63% for definite and 18% for probably from Essential, compared with 67% and 15% from Newspoll. They also both find supporters more likely to vote than opponents, although in both cases this is based on very small samples of prospective non-voters. The two pollsters get different outcomes on the question of whether the postal plebiscite should be held: Newspoll records 49% “in favour” and 43% “opposed”, while Essential has 39% approval and 49% disapproval. Newspoll also finds 62% in favour of “guarantees in law for freedom of conscience, belief and religion if (parliament) legislates for same-sex marriage”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

574 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  5. Okay, so Donald Trump has just announced that he will strike at will, who he wants, when he wants.

    So can daretotread finally capitulate to the FACT that Trump IS more dangerous than Hillary Clinton could ever have been!?!

  6. C@t

    So why behave childishly by hanging up on the journalist?

    ________________________________________-

    Given that the journalist in question was Massola, it sounds quite reasonable behaviour to me.

  10. Cat

    DTT professes to be against the military industrial complex. Backs the guy spending more on it than the woman who was reducing money for it.

  14. I like this picture on CNN:

    What a sad, broken man. Even his combover looks tired.

    I hope he quits. Or gets turfed out. Or thrown in jail. Or any/all of those together.

  16. Obama’s hair turned grey while he was POTUS. It happens to them all. The stress must be enormous if you take the position seriously.

    I think Trump is just tired of pretending that he has the faintest idea what he’s doing.

  17. C@tmomma

    He was just a journalist doing his job. No matter who he is.

    She is a Member of Parliament.

    Call centre chappies telling me that my computer has been hacked are also just doing their job.

    I hang up on them as soon as I experience a long silence and then the sounds of a call centre in the background.

  22. political_alert: Senator @Nick_Xenophon will hold a media conference to discuss the trial of mandatory drug testing for welfare recipients, 12:30pm #auspol

  23. They’ve made a rod for their own back with the timeline, using the ABS, not allowing the ABS to use regular procedures. Etc.
    The whole process is going to be such a schemozzle.

  24. So is it a 100% sure thing that 17 year olds won’t get a say in the ME survey even if they’re enrolled. I know this has been answered by the government as a no but a 17 year old asked me this question today (as in should they enroll now) and I was hoping I hadn’t put them off their chance to have a say.

  26. lizzie

    Re the traditional rapid graying hair of US prezzies, no more need to look a “young and vigorous” candidate so out with the bottle of “Grecian 2000” 🙂

  27. heyracheddie: Wow, Essential Poll shows those who disapprove of marriage equality are less likely to vote pic.twitter.com/EOsiJGu23h

  28. gt

    Wow, Essential Poll shows those who disapprove of marriage equality are less likely to vote

    Who would have guessed that conservatives are not in to participatory democracy?

    🙂

  31. ABS press release ….

    Survey responses will be progressively processed during the collection period, however results will not be released until 15 November 2017.

  32. Trump –

    “We will not be nation building in Afghanistan, we will be targeting terrorists”

    This should have been the original US strategy in Afghanistan in 2001 …

  34. CT

    Trump also open to negotiate with the Taliban.

    Sounds like having a dumbass has finally let a real strategist in to negotiate an end. Exclude Taliban peace will not come unless Taliban literally destroyed.

  37. CTar1 @ #232 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 12:10 pm

    Trump –

    “We will not be nation building in Afghanistan, we will be targeting terrorists”

    This should have been the original US strategy in Afghanistan in 2001 …

    Good luck with that. Unless you can target them with perfect accuracy and zero collateral damage, all you’re going to do is create more terrorists to target.

  38. I saw an enrolment ad on SBS on the weekend.
    The voice-over unwittingly exposes the sham, if you haven’t heard it it was Wtte
    ‘all eligible Australians will be able to vote on whether there should be a change to the marriage act to allow same sex couples to marry’.

  39. CTar1
    ““We will not be nation building in Afghanistan, we will be targeting terrorists”

    This should have been the original US strategy in Afghanistan in 2001 …”

    Isn’t this a means to an end? A stable nation state that can deliver security and services to its people is less likely to foster terrorists. Failed states become havens for terrorists (Syria, Somalia, Yemen, etc). The Kabul government may be as corrupt as all hell, but do we really want Afghanistan to become a failed state?

  40. So if the last mail back day is 7 November & it takes 3 days for delivery then that leaves 4 days to count them. They’d better hope the majority of people don’t leave it to the last minute, you know because that never happens.

  41. gt

    I think any pretence that the Taliban will not take over when foreign troops are gone is just face saving and only for now.

    Any ‘settlement’ reached, like Vietnam, will last for 5 minutes after the last US troops leave. Trump will make sure the date of effect will be after his first term ends.

  42. CT

    Yeah I think you are right. Hopefully educating, that woman deserve equality, will reduce some of the curbs the Taliban wants to impose. However I will not hold my breath

  43. Bw

    Targetting ‘terrorists’ is not a war aim.

    Trump doesn’t care about such things.

    He’d abandon the place now if he could but the US is to closely associated with Afghanistan.

    Pulling out would be marked as ‘US lost’.

  44. kakuru

    A stable nation state that can deliver security and services to its people is less likely to foster terrorists.

    Yes, but the will of the local anti-Taliban people has had 15 years to assert its self and it hasn’t.

  47. ACOSS: St Vincent’s Health Australia clinicians reject any involvement in monitoring or reporting of compliance under drug testing regime: pic.twitter.com/Cvywo2gM7s

  50. I had the misfortune of listening to Porter on ABC radio this morning. Bah. Pathetic imterview and what a load of bs to sell the policy. Its mot a policy of love, its a divisive issue thrown out as red meat for the conservative wing. US experience indicates its more expensive to drug test than not. But this govt doesnt seem to understand evidence.

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