Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull records an eight-point deterioration in his net approval rating, as Labor’s lead on voting intention widens still further.

Newspoll breaks out of its 53-47 straitjacket to record a 54-46 lead for Labor, from primary vote of Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 38% (up two), Greens 9% (down two) and One Nation 9% (up one). Leadership ratings also record substantial change for the first time a while, with Malcolm Turnbull down three on approval to 35% and up five on disapproval to 55%, and Bill Shorten down two to 34% and up three to 54%. Malcolm Turnbull leads 43-33 as preferred prime minister, down from 46-31 last time. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1675 from Thursday to Sunday. The Australian’s paywalled report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

920 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Come to think of it, maybe it’s a clever ploy by Shorten. Refuse for some time to disclose his own papers, creating a sense of expectation among the Government that perhaps Shorten is in strife too – and then disclose the papers on Q&A. This causes the calls re other Labor MPs to lose some of their force but in a scenario where perhaps (I speculate) there are in fact some dodgy Labor MPs citizenshipwise.

    This leads to another question: If an MP asserts he/she renounced at a given point of time, is there any way to verify that information if the person in question refuses to disclose? They may well be protected by privacy laws.

  3. alias.

    but any claim that Shorten didn’t appropriately deal with any issues is baseless.

    There is absolutely, at this moment, no evidence to say so.

    As I said this is fishing exercise and the best reaction is not to bite.

  4. Really Barney? Even when it looks really suspect? The punters out there are fed up with all this stuff, and Shorten – who is already regarded as shifty (just look at the polling) – can ill afford to be seen to be playing silly games over this.

  6. [alias
    …

    This leads to another question: If an MP asserts he/she renounced at a given point of time, is there any way to verify that information if the person in question refuses to disclose? They may well be protected by privacy laws.]

    Yes, gain evidence that this assertion is untrue, that’s why we have this line up outside the HC.

  8. alias @ #504 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 4:55 pm

    Really Barney? Even when it looks really suspect? The punters out there are fed up with all this stuff, and Shorten – who is already regarded as shifty (just look at the polling) – can ill afford to be seen to be playing silly games over this.

    I agree with you, alias.

    Not producing documentary evidence, as other ALP members have recently slapped down on the table when queried, just feeds into the LNP smear that Shorts is shifty, etc.

    Get on with it, I reckon.

  9. Lizzie .. I don’t think so. Your average punter who doesn’t pay much attention to politics remembers Shorten’s role in the demise of not one but two PMs. They remember those images of him making phone calls the night Rudd got knifed. They remember how he changed sides and ditched Gillard. They remember the apparently self-serving deals he made on behalf of the AWU. Short version: Shorten is seen as less than fully open and transparent. This just feeds into that. I can’t see why he would want to do it.

  11. Mark JS on children of same sex relationships being abused according to a poster:


    markjs
    Another “respectful” poster seen in Melbourne..

    From a report on the author of the data used in the poster:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/using-pseudoscience-to-undermine-same-sex-parents/385604/

    But as he himself acknowledges, this conclusion directly contradicts a large body of research on this topic, which suggests that there are no differences between kids raised in stable households by gay or straight parents. In an email, Sullins argued that this “entire body of small-sample research is mistaken and highly misleading,” pointing to biased methodology. But a number of nationally representative, large-sample surveys have consistently found that kids from stable gay households fare the same as kids from stable heterosexual households.

  12. My approach to an issue like this is that I’m not hype-partisan like many here. I take a look at something like Shorten refusing to disclose and I reach the obvious conclusion: It looks dodgy.

    Or, people could reach an alternative conclusion. He knows everything is absolutely water tight so can just bat requests away.

  14. a r
    ajm @ #495 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 4:44 pm

    Back on the desktop with C+ disabled shows green headings but normal sized text.

    Note that on the desktop in any reasonable browser you should be able to adjust the text size however you like by holding ‘ctrl’ and scrolling the mouse wheel up/down.

    All that does is change the text size of all the text on the screen, so the rest of the good size text becomes too large.

    And I have a ‘magic mouse’ which I love, but does not have a scroll wheel. I use command + and command – to change text size.

  15. Barney – I can see where you’re coming from. The trouble is this: Shorten is the leader. We know his father was born in Britain. He asserts he renounced yet won’t prove it. Many here were castigating Malcolm Roberts for taking much the same stance early on in the controversy over his status. Technically speaking, Shorten may be on safe ground refusing to disclose – but the optics are terrible for a guy already regarded as not the most transparent of politicians.

  16. Meanwhile, the Libs’ master plan to rule social media seems to be floundering – the latest post on ‘thefairgo’ is dated August 8. I wonder how long the contract with P. McGuinness (no relation) specified?

  17. alias,

    If the Liberals truly believe that Shorten is ineligible then they can use their numbers in the House and refer him to the HC.

  18. C@tmomma.. you’re right. Batting away the requests is do-able. But it looks really bad. Perhaps this doesn’t matter so much as the Government is imploding. But I would argue that Shorten really has nothing to lose. He can say: “Hey, you made such a big fuss about this. Well here they are.” It would be a winning moment – and one to further drive home Labor’s advantage here. Why endure the growing chorus demanding he disclose? Just yield.

  19. alias

    I’m certainly not going to dig over the history, but as an interested member of the public, I don’t believe that Shorten was the key player in the replacement of young Kevin.

  20. Actually, no other Labor MPs have slapped down their paperwork. They all take the same approach, of laying out what they did when.

  21. “Village Roadshow threatens Australians with lawsuits for piracy”

    That will go down well considering that they most likely not paying taxes.

  22. Shorten plays the long game. That is why Labor MPS have not put their documentation on the table.

    Besides, the nanosecond Obama put his documentation on the table the rabid right crowd moved right along to question whether his birth certificate was fraudulent.

    Labor wins while the topic is chaon.

    (And this fucking auto correct or predictive texterm is driving force me fucking mad.)

  23. Quite probably not Lizzie. But again that doesn’t matter nearly as much as the perception – right or wrong – that Shorten is shifty. Again my question is: why fuel that perception for no gain?

  25. C@tmomma @ #512 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 5:03 pm

    My approach to an issue like this is that I’m not hype-partisan like many here. I take a look at something like Shorten refusing to disclose and I reach the obvious conclusion: It looks dodgy.

    Or, people could reach an alternative conclusion. He knows everything is absolutely water tight so can just bat requests away.

    There’s no logic to that approach as the only outcome is a sceptical response from the voters.

  26. Boerwar @ #522 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 5:09 pm

    Shorten plays the long game. That is why Labor MPS have not put their documentation on the table.

    Besides, the nanosecond Obama put his documentation on the table the rabid right crowd moved right along to question whether his birth certificate was fraudulent.

    Labor wins while the topic is chaon.

    (And this fucking auto correct or predictive texterm is driving force me fucking mad.)

    That’s about as logical as spending $50,000,000,000 on submarines.

  27. alias
    “” They remember the apparently self-serving deals he made on behalf of the AWU. Short version: Shorten is seen as less than fully open and transparent”
    They know the LNP tried to nobble him with a $50 Million RC and failed, if you do not think he could do a better job of running this country than the current mob, you must have rocks in your head!.

  28. Rex Douglas @ #530 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 5:10 pm

    C@tmomma @ #512 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 5:03 pm

    My approach to an issue like this is that I’m not hype-partisan like many here. I take a look at something like Shorten refusing to disclose and I reach the obvious conclusion: It looks dodgy.

    Or, people could reach an alternative conclusion. He knows everything is absolutely water tight so can just bat requests away.

    There’s no logic to that approach as the only outcome is a sceptical response from the voters.

    Says one voter who is sceptical about everything Bill Shorten does. : )

  29. Wow, just visited Poll Bludger on a PC as opposed to the Ipad that I normally use. The ‘new comments’ button appeared. Never saw that on the Ipad! I pressed it and Voila! the new comment appeared.

    When using the Ipad, I would press oldest and then newest to see the newest comments. Often I wold miss a swag of comments if I haven’t visited for a while.

  30. C@tmomma @ #512 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 5:03 pm

    Or, people could reach an alternative conclusion. He knows everything is absolutely water tight so can just bat requests away.

    But why bother with the angst?

    And by the way, Catty, thanks for nothing. I’d like to inform you that Motown is a swell town.

    We’ve got a spanking brand new library precinct, absolutely frabjous, lots of investment by State Labor – overlooked so many times by the VicLibs – and a very neat place, for an inland Vic country town; if you can overlook some petty crime, a bit of an ice problem, and lots and lots of lovely, neighbourly families.

    What’s not to like?

    Except there’s no beach, and the smoking ruins of the Latrobe Valley belching, poisoning, coal-fired toxins so the rest of Victoria can have electricity.

  37. Unbelievable
    Shorten and Labor on 54% and some here want Shorten to do what the Libs want him to do?
    I don’t think Shorten and Labor would be doing what the Libs want at this point. Look where doing what the Libs want has got them.

  39. Ides of March @ <a href='https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/08/20/newspoll-
    alias @ #490 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 4:39 pm

    Perhaps Shorten has been saving it up for Q&A. Not a bad idea perhaps. Allow Tony Jones to start hyperventiling, then casually pass it across the table. That could work – although it would beg the question: why wait so long. However, on balance, such a disclosure would serve to ramp up the pressure on the other side.

    It’s very much in Shorten’s interest to keep the citizenship fiasco front and centre. I imagine he will let the MSM hyperventilate about it for a while before he produces his paperwork, then ask the LNP to do the same. He may even be aware of more LNPers with questionable citizenship that we don’t know about yet.

    Anyway, why all the outrage about Shorten? Abbott didn’t produce his paperwork till years after it first became an issue. Abbott may have known that doing so would open the floodgates.

  42. Good evening all,

    Shorten should just hold firm re his citizenship ” proof”. Why should he now bow to demands from sections of the MSM ? It is exactly the same as Julia Gillard. Presser after presser and she still had ” questions to answer “. If Shorten puts the paperwork out there then the MSM will find something else to pressure him about.

    Perhaps Shorten should simply encourage the government to refer him to the HC and if so make it clear that is where he will release the documentation ?

    However, this all just speculation. With all due respect to posters here we are all just amateurs compared to Bill Shorten and I would back him ahead of anyone on the score of political smarts. Shorten has finished in front of the government and the MSM constantly since 2013 and I am sure whatever he does or does not do will be well considered.

    Cheers and a good evening to all.

  43. Surely people here can see the big picture. As Xenophon noted, this whole dual citizenship thing is a huge “anti politician” moment. People are not really seeing it in partisan terms – rather they just think it’s all a shambles. And Shorten is simply making that perception worse by seeming to have something to hide when he almost certainly doesn’t.

  46. Any Lib spy who keeps an eye on PB will be delighted that alias and co are encouraging the doubters and demanding ‘the papers’.

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