Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull records an eight-point deterioration in his net approval rating, as Labor’s lead on voting intention widens still further.

Newspoll breaks out of its 53-47 straitjacket to record a 54-46 lead for Labor, from primary vote of Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 38% (up two), Greens 9% (down two) and One Nation 9% (up one). Leadership ratings also record substantial change for the first time a while, with Malcolm Turnbull down three on approval to 35% and up five on disapproval to 55%, and Bill Shorten down two to 34% and up three to 54%. Malcolm Turnbull leads 43-33 as preferred prime minister, down from 46-31 last time. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1675 from Thursday to Sunday. The Australian’s paywalled report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

920 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 19
1 2 19
  1. NEWSPOLL EXCLUSIVE: Bill Shorten has gained more ground against Malcolm Turnbull in the wake of the furore over the citizenship of three cabinet ministers, with Labor ahead of the Coalition by 54 to 46 per cent in two-party terms in the latest Newspoll.

    Labor has climbed to its strongest primary vote this year with its core support at 38 per cent, up from 36 per cent two weeks ago.

    The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows the government’s primary vote has fallen from 36 to 35 per cent.
    The results come after a fortnight that saw an internal Coalition row over same-sex marriage, the government’s decision to go ahead with a postal plebiscite on the issue, Mr Turnbull’s move to challenge big energy retailers on their prices and the storm over foreign citizenship.

  2. briefly @ #1610 Sunday, August 20th, 2017 – 8:38 pm

    sprocket_
    While we wait for the Sword of Damocles (aka NewsPoll), how many names can you pick out from this 1990 group photo of the 4th Hawke Ministry?

    Richardson, Collins, Baldwin, Hand, Bilney, Beazley, Duffy, Kerin, Ray, Bolkus, Crean, Kelly, Cook, Dawkins, Keating, Button, Willis, Fatin, Evans, Howe…and Hayden….

    Neil Blewitt doesn’t seem to have been tagged yet.

  3. I don’t know how I feel about PHON achieving the same polling figures as the Greens.

    But surely nobody would be surprised at this Newspoll after a disastrous fortnight and especially this week for the govt.

  4. I’m sure the fact that no Labor MPs have been sidelined with the Dual Nationality fiasco has been noted by the great unwashed asked by Newspoll for their views.

  5. C@tmomma
    briefly @ #1610 Sunday, August 20th, 2017 – 8:38 pm

    sprocket_
    While we wait for the Sword of Damocles (aka NewsPoll), how many names can you pick out from this 1990 group photo of the 4th Hawke Ministry?

    Richardson, Collins, Baldwin, Hand, Bilney, Beazley, Duffy, Kerin, Ray, Bolkus, Crean, Kelly, Cook, Dawkins, Keating, Button, Willis, Fatin, Evans, Howe…and Hayden….

    Neil Blewitt doesn’t seem to have been tagged yet.

    We think back row…head turned to side..next to Duffy….

  6. confessions @ #6 Sunday, August 20th, 2017 – 9:44 pm

    I don’t know how I feel about PHON achieving the same polling figures as the Greens.

    But surely nobody would be surprised at this Newspoll after a disastrous fortnight and especially this week for the govt.

    I think the explanation that was given on Insiders today was pretty neat. The Greens and One Nation are the polar extremities of the spectrum of politics in Australia today. So, in a way, that they are both the same is a kind of balanced result.

  7. briefly @ #11 Sunday, August 20th, 2017 – 9:46 pm

    C@tmomma
    briefly @ #1610 Sunday, August 20th, 2017 – 8:38 pm

    sprocket_
    While we wait for the Sword of Damocles (aka NewsPoll), how many names can you pick out from this 1990 group photo of the 4th Hawke Ministry?

    Richardson, Collins, Baldwin, Hand, Bilney, Beazley, Duffy, Kerin, Ray, Bolkus, Crean, Kelly, Cook, Dawkins, Keating, Button, Willis, Fatin, Evans, Howe…and Hayden….

    Neil Blewitt doesn’t seem to have been tagged yet.

    We think back row…head turned to side..next to Duffy….

    Yep. : )

    He was my favourite Minister for Health.

  8. Tony Abbott and the Monkey Pod must be smacking their lips. The serious options on the table are,

    A challenge by the DreamTeam of Peter Dutton and Greg Hunt, or

    A panicky rush to an early election by Turnbull, ostensibly to clear up the citizenship imbroglio

  9. From the previous thread:

    briefly @ #1570 Sunday, August 20th, 2017 – 4:36 pm

    Grimace…

    You mentioned you’d been campaigning on ME. What kind of reaction did you get?

    We did a BBQ at Jess Shaw’s office which was well attended in spite of the weather by the branch Labor people and Senator Pratt, and we decorated the windows of Jess’s office with ME type stuff.

    Jess’s office is at the opposite end of the shopping center which includes Aveley IGA, and on the opposite side of the building to the car park, so the location was generally very low traffic. Getting the attendance we did given the time we had to get the event organised; the poorly trafficked area and the bad weather, the event was very well attended.

    On a personal note, I was disappointed that the event was not attended by someone from the LGBTIQ community, though that may be down to poor organisation on our part. I did feel the event and the knock lacked the energy of an election, though that may have been the weather.

    On the knock, we cut a list of just over 300 and targeted an area of Aveley that was very new and had a relatively high proportion of houses without anyone registered to vote. As you would expect in such an area there were a lot of people not home or the house was vacant, though we probably talked to 20% – 30% of people in the houses (so about normal).

    A lot of people told us they were enrolled correctly, we got a number of petition signatures, a couple of people updated their enrollment and we were well received. There was only one person who said nothing and just shut their door upon seeing us, one who told us he wasn’t interested and one person told us that they didn’t vote and just paid the fine after every election.

    In 2016 the Aveley booth was won by Porter on a 9.06% margin, which was Porter’s best result of the Metropolitan polling day booths. If the attitudes and feelings I came across on the knock are translated to the ballot box at the next election then I would expect Liberal HQ will write the seat off in the same way they did with Swan Hills and West Swan at the recent state election.

    The result here will be an excellent test of Labor’s ground game in the urban fringe along the south western and coastal parts of Pearce – being Perth’s north eastern fringe and the far northern sprawl, and; the sparsely populated central and north western parts of the seat which are unwinnable for Labor.

    If you’re interested I downloaded the booth results and have sorted them by TPP.

  10. Sohar
    This could be the time for YouGov or IPSOS to chime in with a 58-42 to the Libs poll to steady the ship.

    And who would believe them? 🙂

  11. grimace

    I’m not greatly surprised by the feedback from the door knocking, I have to say. I think voters have developed a temporary allergy to politics…been thinking about how best to campaign on ME…thinking that stalls and forums might work better than anything….We will discuss it at our next branch meeting…

    It’d be great to see the booth x booth data…

  12. The Greens and One Nation are the polar extremities of the spectrum of politics in Australia today.

    Yes I heard that too, but it doesn’t jive with my view that PHON is more extreme than the Greens. That’s where my discomfiture is stemming from.

  13. We led the world in handling the AIDS epidemic under Neil Blewitt. Courage and conviction.

    Oh yes, we were so lucky we had a Labor govt in at that time. Compare and contrast with the US where conservatives gave the US a very different response to the issue, ie not public health driven.

  14. confessions @ #28 Sunday, August 20th, 2017 – 9:55 pm

    The Greens and One Nation are the polar extremities of the spectrum of politics in Australia today.

    Yes I heard that too, but it doesn’t jive with my view that PHON is more extreme than the Greens. That’s where my discomfiture is stemming from.

    It’s all a matter of perspective, really. There are people who honestly believe The Greens are too extreme.

  15. Yup….Blewitt was brilliant. I can remember haring reading his second reading speech on the reintroduction of universal health insurance. He was totally convincing in the face of LNP lies…I’ve had many occasions to thank Labor ever since.

  16. briefly, C@t:

    I’ve spotted a young Simon Crean in the photo, but who is the guy wearing the bowler hat standing next to Keating?

  17. The Gs position themselves just far enough away from Labor to be able to pitch to Labor-leaning voters; ON empty the same technique in relation to LNP-positive supporters. They are not so much on opposite ends of the spectrum as they are similar in their tactics.

  18. confessions
    briefly, C@t:

    I’ve spotted a young Simon Crean in the photo, but who is the guy wearing the bowler hat standing next to Keating?

    Dawkins

  19. The Australian article ‘slips’ this bit in to describe the fortnight sitting –

    Mr Turnbull’s standing with voters has fallen over a fortnight that began with an urgent Coalition party room meeting to resolve differences on same sex marrage, progressed to a debate on energy prices but was derailed on Monday morning when Deputy Prime Minitser Barnaby Joyce revealed his New Zealand citizenship.

    A sort of ‘party SSM/ME debate – tick ‘sorted’, then serious stuff tackled on energy prices tick ‘serious subject’ and then, when all was going so well, and due no fault of Mal the Magnificent a ‘brilliant’ performance was ‘derailed’ by those useless country bumpkins.

    Our Press just can’ help themselves …

  20. Thought that +2 gain for the Greens on the previous Newspoll had to be a statistical blip that would correct itself, and it has.

    “It’s all a matter of perspective, really. There are people who honestly believe The Greens are too extreme.”

    The only people who think the Greens are “too extreme” are the right wing nutbags. The Greens under Di Natale don’t even begin to rate as extreme, or even particularly bold or brave, in, well, anything. The Greens aren’t at all populist, and they aren’t anti-establishment. One Nation fit into both categories.

    The Greens, therefore, are not anologious to One Nation. There is currently no political player on the populist anti-establishment Left that is anologious to One Nation on the populist anti-establishment Right.

  21. Could someone please post the link to the (ALP ministry?) photo that people have been talking about.

    I missed it – probably due to my own fault, but I’ll blame the Crikey gerbils and Labor.

  22. The Greens aren’t at all populist

    I think the Greens do their own brand of populism which appeals to their base. But I do agree that there is no left wing equivalent of the anti-establishment PHON in Oz.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 19
1 2 19