Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Most post-budget opinion poll stasis, this time from Essential Research.

No change on voting intention from Essential Research this week, at all – Labor leads 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 37%, Labor 38%, Greens 10% and One Nation 6%. Nonetheless, there is a net positive response for the budget, which records 41% approval and 33% disapproval, and for each of eight individual measures, ranging from 82-7 in favour of a levy on vacant properties owned by foreign investors to 49-39 for the Medicare levy increase. However, 56% felt the increase should be higher for high income earners, as per Labor policy, with 27% favouring a flat increase (though no allowance was made for those who didn’t think it should happen at all). For all the “Labor lite” talk, the Liberal Party’s reputation dies hard, with the budget rated best for “people who are well off” and “Australian business”, and worst for “you personally” and, suggesting at least some insight as to what the budget specifically contained, university students. On the question of preferred Treasurer, Scott Morrison (26%) and Chris Bowen (22%) ran a distant third behind “don’t know”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,263 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  5. Victoria – this guy is very ‘colourful’ – good to follow

    Broadsword_Six‏ @Broadsword_Six ·

    Seriously no funny lines. When I went to work for the Feds, I was given a mentor. A senior person who was around for a long time

    One day shortly after I started while at lunch I asked him what it takes to be successful in this game. No bullshit, just tell it like it

    He said 3 things. Always tell the truth. Keep your fucking mouth shut, and document everything. Every contact, cut paper on it.

    I took his advice, and never had any problems. Jim Comey must have had a similar mentor. He did it 100% right. Trump is done. Period.

  6. Tom Hawkins
    <blockquote
    Trump’s reading should be restricted to golfing magazines.

    I bet he cheats at golf as well.
    Kim Jong Il would be his model. From vague memory this was done in one of if not Kim’s first time on the course !

    It has been claimed by a Pyongyang Golf Club professional that Kim Jong Il shot a course record of 34 sometime in the early 1990s, including 5 holes in one.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DPRK_Amateur_Golf_Open

  7. mpesce: As the Times breathlessly reports, FBI agents notes’ are considered as basically the gold standard in evidence.

    Game, set, match.

  8. MarkDiStef: Hywood, sits alone in front of journalism inquiry, begins his opening statement: “Fairfax is a 186 year old company…” #PIJ

  9. MarkDiStef: Hywood unloads at ABC News by saying it’s “creating additional pressures” on commercial businesses, adds its “undermining” them online #PIJ

  10. Rick Wilson Column :

    President Trump Just Can’t Help Himself

    This isn’t a White House turning the corner or getting its bearings in Washington—it’s a White House engaged in daily DOWNFALL cosplay.

    President Donald Trump can’t stop sticking his head in the noose. The last 10 days in Washington have been a singularity of Trump’s reckless, dangerous, lead-paint-and-cheap-vodka brain-damage style of governance. As he flailed from crisis to crisis, nothing said “You’ll be tired of all the winning” like a series of self-inflicted wounds to his political, legal, and presidential fate.

    As if we hadn’t had enough lunacy in the last 10 days, Trump looked at America and said, “Hey… hold my beer. Watch this.” In his very cozy Oval Office meeting with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Both men are so steeped in Russian intelligence circles they might as well have “spy” tattooed on their foreheads. As one of the smartest political observers I know said, “It’s ONLY MONDAY.”

    Those of us who warned you of the danger of Trump won’t say we’re happy to see the damage he’s doing to our global standing, our national security, our justice system, and our national morale. We’ll just say we told you so.

    Again

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/05/15/president-trump-just-can-t-help-himself?source=twitter&via=desktop

  11. bemused @ #144 Wednesday, May 17, 2017 at 10:42 am

    c@tmomma @ #106 Wednesday, May 17, 2017 at 10:11 am

    Bemused,
    To see such a fulsome joy in a person’s grandchildren is well worth reading about. Even on a ‘politics’ blog!

    Oh damn! Emojied again. Aaaaggghhh
    They are the voters of the future. I am helping them to acquire the ‘correct’ values such as honesty, compassion, sharing, empathy so that they will know how to vote when the time comes. {wink}
    And enjoying it!

  13. Don
    “That is exactly my point. I was replying to someone who wanted to shut down discussion on something people wanted to discuss. ”
    I expect you are referring to my post on the other thread and I’m only complaining about the arguments on that subject that are going on ad infinitum. I also enjoy reading about other peoples thoughts and enjoyment of whatever, that’s why I view this site, but that ONE particular subject crops up on EVERY BLOODY PB THREAD!!!!! It’s like a stuck record. Anyway rant over and I hope everyone has a great day. I’m off to buy some popcorn and observe Trump disappear up his own fundamental while he tries to wriggle out of his predicament.

  14. https://qz.com/984995/will-trump-be-impeached-trump-impeachment-support-outweighs-opposition-in-new-poll/

    “What is going up, however, is the number of Americans who support impeaching Trump: It was 35% in late January; it went up to 46% for (and 46% against) in February; then support for impeachment dipped slightly. But it has now reached 48%—outpacing for the first time the percentage of Americans who oppose Trump’s impeachment (41%).”

  15. I just discovered that there are words above the comments section!

    On the question of preferred Treasurer, Scott Morrison (26%) and Chris Bowen (22%) ran a distant third behind “don’t know”.

    Ah, the joys of getting to choose between two options that nobody wants.

  17. Sweet f*ck :

    Comey Damns Trump By Saying He Didn’t Write Memos On Obama Because Obama Was Truthful

    A source close to former FBI Director James Comey said that he didn’t write memos about his conversations with President Obama because the conversations were routine and Obama was truthful.

    It is all coming together against Trump. Former FBI Director Comey has a perfectly logical reason for keeping memos of his conversation with Trump. President Trump was behaving in a troubling manner that Comey thought needed to be documented.

    The bottom line is that Comey’s memos aren’t partisan, but the do reflect the difference in honesty between Obama and Trump.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/05/16/comey-damns-trump-write-memos-obama-obama-truthful.html

  19. PhoenixRed

    I have been following that Twitter feed during this past week. He has backed up Claude Taylor and Mensch’s reporting re the warrants being issued in next few days.
    Everyone is comparing this to Watergate. watergate was a third rate crime by comparison to this shit show

  21. yep. I remember Comey was being pillared during the Clinton email stuff. I always believed he was one of the good guys. ie patriot

  22. hope e this works – gave me a laugh :

    Replying to @LouiseMensch

    I hear the FBI has ordered some special handcuffs pic.twitter.com/DCYwszCUWe

  23. People psychoanalysing Trump – what ever else he might be, he displays all the symptoms of cocaine addiction to go with it.

  26. Regardless of what he achieved or didn’t while in office, Obama, and his wife Michelle always carried themselves and the presidency with dignity and grace.

    The contrast between him and Trump is there for all to see. I’m glad that Trump is going to be found out for the fraud that he is. History will not be kind and he deserves all the crap that is coming his way.

    End of rant ! lol

  29. Looks like Mensch and Taylor sources were on the money
    Mary Ellen Ciaccia @maryellencmeade
    Replying to @LouiseMensch
    MSNBC suponea going out Louise on Flynn VA and another re Paul Mantifort @maddow more soon put on

  31. Yep. In a nutshell

    16m
    Counterchekist @counterchekist
    Replying to @GregPrice13
    Nixon didn’t commit Treason, nor launder billions of dollars for the RU mob.

  32. victoria Wednesday, May 17, 2017 at 11:41 am

    Looks like Mensch and Taylor sources were on the money
    Mary Ellen Ciaccia @maryellencmeade
    Replying to @LouiseMensch
    MSNBC suponea going out Louise on Flynn VA and another re Paul Mantifort @maddow more soon put on

    *************************************
    You said you might have egg on your face the other day, Victoria – I DONT THINK SO !!!

    If Lousie and Claude come good on this – I say IF – then they deserve the Pulitzer Prize for reporting.

  33. barry reynolds @ #163 Wednesday, May 17, 2017 at 11:18 am

    Don
    “That is exactly my point. I was replying to someone who wanted to shut down discussion on something people wanted to discuss. ”
    I expect you are referring to my post on the other thread and I’m only complaining about the arguments on that subject that are going on ad infinitum. I also enjoy reading about other peoples thoughts and enjoyment of whatever, that’s why I view this site, but that ONE particular subject crops up on EVERY BLOODY PB THREAD!!!!! It’s like a stuck record.

    Sooooo…. How many posts will you allow on ANY topic? Per thread?

    In order that you don’t get the impression that posts on, say, Trump are like a broken record? Five? Ten? Twenty? No limit? Zero?

    I await your response. Your call is important to us.

    And for those who don’t or won’t understand, I follow the Trump saga with interest, both here and elsewhere. I am not trying to cut down posts on ANY topic, the more the merrier. That is and has been my point from the start. It is my belief that posters should be able to post (within William’s very broad guidelines) anything on any topic.

    If a post is of no interest, no one will reply, and the topic dies.

    If it is of interest, it will be on “every bloody thread”. Like Trump. Like Malcolm Turnbull. Like Bill Shorten.

  35. Wage growth remained at record lows in the first quarter of this year, with workers receiving a pay rise of just 0.5 per cent.

    That keeps annual wage growth at just 1.9 per cent, the lowest on Bureau of Statistics figures that go back to the late 1990s, and probably the slowest rate of pay rises since the last recession.

    With inflation at 2.1%, and bracket creep impacting take home pays, that means rates of pay are going down in real terms (i.e. how much stuff you can actually buy with your income).

  37. MarkDiStef: Senator Kitching asks Hywood whether some Fairfax staff call him “the Marie Antoinette of Fairfax” #PIJ

    Do you guys?

  39. Fox News Is Having A Nervous Breakdown And Pretending Like Trump’s Presidency Isn’t Dying

    The coverage of Trump’s endless stream of presidency destroying news over the last 24 hours has varied between sad spin, flat out denial, and pretending like the Trump presidency doesn’t exist.

    Fox News is seriously losing its collective mind and is in complete denial about the crashing and burning Trump presidency. Fox is down in the ratings, and getting regularly beaten by MSNBC to make matters even worse, they can’t even talk about their president because he is so riddled with scandal that they have to keep their viewers in the dark or else they may start to catch on that things aren’t going so well.

    Trump is just bringing down the Republican Party. He is putting a stake through the heart of Fox News.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/05/16/fox-news-nervous-breakdown-pretending-trumps-presidency-dying.html

  40. Rachel Maddow Breaks Huge News About A New Criminal Subpoena Issued In The Russia Scandal

    Rachel Maddow is breaking the news that a criminal subpoena has been issued about a loan that former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort took out with a Trump business associate.

    Maddow said, “NBC News can confirm tonight that another subpoena has now been issued in the ongoing federal investigations into Donald Trump’s campaign and his associates…This new subpoena relates to a loan that was taken out by Paul Manafort immediately after he resigned from the Trump campaign under a cloud of suspicion about his ties to pro-Putin political interests in Ukraine….A subpoena has gone out. It is related to a specific loan from a company that is related to a previous Trump business associate.”

    This White House doesn’t have just one scandal. They have multiple five-alarm fires going on around them on all fronts.

    The answers to many of the questions relating to the Russia scandal are likely to be found by following the money, and the money trail may lead us right back to Trump.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/05/16/rachel-maddow-breaks-huge-news-criminal-subpoena-issued-russia-scandal.html

  41. Jenauthor

    “People psychoanalysing Trump – what ever else he might be, he displays all the symptoms of cocaine addiction to go with it.”

    Psychoanalysing Trump may be a lost cause. I love this quote from David Brooks:

    “We’ve got this perverse situation in which the vast analytic powers of the entire world are being spent trying to understand a guy whose thoughts are often just six fireflies beeping randomly in a jar.”

  44. Re Culleton and the privy council appeal.
    If I follow his line of reasoning, he doesn’t believe the Australia Act of 1986 is valid. He thinks all Commonwealth acts since (I think) the time of Whitlam are invalid because the wording was changed. In his opinion because the working changed to ‘Commonwealth Of Australia’ they are invalid.
    In his opinion we are all still subjects of the queen (or should that be ‘Queen’).

  45. Maybe people should try to predict his impending Wednesday-morning tweets, instead. I’m thinking something like:

    As President I have absolute authority over FBI, can ask Comey to leave Flynn alone if I want. Flynn a great guy! Dem outrage so fake!

  47. Chaffetz demands Comey-Trump memos in letter to FBI

    House Oversight Chairman Jason Chaffetz is demanding the FBI hand over all documents detailing communications between President Donald Trump and fired agency Director James Comey within the next week.

    “If true, these memoranda raise questions as to whether the president attempted to influence or impede the FBI’s investigation as it relates to Lt. Gen. Flynn,” Chaffetz wrote to acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/16/chaffetz-demands-comey-memo-in-letter-to-fbi-238478

  49. Trump burned by his devotion to Flynn

    The president’s alleged attempt to shut down the FBI’s Flynn probe follows Trump’s pattern of protecting his former aide.

    Trump has also expressed his personal preference for Flynn’s style of briefings over those from his replacement, national security adviser H.R. McMaster, who Trump has complained about being condescending, according to two senior administration officials

    For Trump, Flynn’s loyalty to him early in the campaign eclipses any embarrassment he’s brought to his young administration. During the transition, Trump was warned by many that Flynn was a loose cannon, but he decided to name him national security adviser over the objections of many.

    “Trump’s loyalty to his friends and family is admirable,” said Alex Conant, a former spokesperson for George W. Bush. “His loyalty to someone he fired for lying is harder to appreciate.”

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/16/donald-trump-flynn-comey-238480

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