BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Poll aggregation records a slight trend in favour of the Coalition ahead of Tuesday’s budget.

Before we proceed, please note posts below on British and French elections, and a bumper post on Tasmania that encompasses newly published federal and state electorate boundaries, today’s three elections for seats in the state’s upper house, and a state poll result that provides good news for the new Labor leader, Rebecca White.

The only new addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate this week is the usual weekly Essential Research result, an all too common state of affairs in Newspoll’s off weeks that should finally be rectified with YouGov’s imminent entry to the Australian polling caper. The trendline is now doing something it hasn’t done since the election – bending back slightly in favour of the Coalition. The Coalition have also picked up two this week on the seat projection, one apiece in Victoria and South Australia. The other trend worth noting is that One Nation are down for the seventh week in a row. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

I’ve had two paywalled articles this week in Crikey, which is well worth your subscriber dollars if the state of the Australian news media is of concern to you, as it should be. One of these tackled Peta Credlin’s revisionism concerning the electoral gender gap:

In defiance of the conventional wisdom, Credlin sought not just to dispel the “myth” of the Tony Abbott “woman problem”, but also to argue that the charge could more properly be levelled at his successor. The implications of Credlin’s claim run well beyond the small matter of the Turnbull-Abbott rivalry, as gender has been the most volatile demographic element in the federal electoral equation since the knives came out for Kevin Rudd on June 23, 2010.

The other considered One Nation’s recent fadeout and its implications for the looming Queensland state election:

The One Nation renaissance is once again inviting comparisons to Groundhog Day, as the party faces the possibility of deregistration in Queensland over irregularities in its legal structure. The latest development adds to an accumulation of bad news not just for One Nation, but also for Queensland’s Liberal National Party opposition, which has been hoping that One Nation will provide the key to a quick return to office after its shock defeat in January 2015.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,881 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 38
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  1. C@tmomma

    Okay, as you seem to know who it isn’t, tell me who it is that supplied the hacked material EMHACK to Pastebin?

    Are Russians too thick to use pastebin themselves?

  2. I had thought that Greg Sheridan had scored the lol of the day for political reporting with this headline “Welcome meeting of grown-ups” re Truffles and Trumpenstein’s meeting but he has been beaten into second place by another from the Murdoch Augean stable with..

    Bromance blossoms over war bonds

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/foreign-affairs/bromance-blossoms-over-wartime-bonds-for-trump-and-turnbull/news-story/e66a6665dd1aa9dc1a33da36b5b358c6

  4. David Marr is on the TV talking about Hansonism to the Sydney Institute.

    He is stressing i) Hanson didn’t create a movement; there has been this constituency as long as Europeans have been in Australia; she has merely given them a focus; (ii) even at her highest level of polling, Hanson and her views do not attract the same percentage of votes as Brexit, Trump or Le Pen (in other words, Australians are not as accepting of these views as other nations).

    As I keep saying, just because something is happening in Europe and America does not mean that something happening in Australia is the same thing.

  7. Confessions
    Thanks for the links. I was rushing before and risked abruptness as rudeness. Re last week’s blabbermouth – who was that woman, from the right, natch

  8. He is stressing i) Hanson didn’t create a movement

    Is anyone suggesting she did, other than herself?

    Marr should look back to the images of Hanson cracking champagne after the US POTUS election results were known, and the puzzled and curious looks from Australians wondering WTF she was on about.

  9. Itza:

    I’ve not seen the woman panelist from this week before, but thought she gave a solid contribution. Last week’s woman panelist was a Republican. But even so, her efforts last week transcended even her more vocal contributions on past shows.

  11. Hear hear

    4h
    RespectMyGame @battletested5
    Maher new rules section on Bernieorbust, Jill Stein, Cornel West & Susan Sarandon is on point..Trump is theirs to own #RealTime

  13. fess

    Well, quite a few posters here speak as if there’s been a seismic change in Australian politics, with the oppressed masses straining against their bonds and yearning to be free — whereas what we have is a relatively unoppressed but very self entitled mass which has always been there finding a new label to slap on their heads.

  16. Trump belongs to Hilary, her campaign and the DNC.

    Nope Trump belongs to the people who voted for him, and their willingness to be taken in by his lies.

    And if the behaviour of Republican voters past is any indication, these idiots will continue to vote for him.

    The people Maher was pillorying are those Democrat voters who sat out the election because their pure preferred candidate in Sanders or Warren didn’t get the nod. They know who they are, and as evidenced by DTT’s withdrawal from the blog having trashed Clinton and spruiked Trump, are obviously feeling all kinds of numpty moron. They deserve to feel thus.

  17. zoomster:

    Perhaps, but I’ve always been of the view that Hanson attracts a certain demographic who are somewhat irrelevant when it comes to changing governments and having real influence. Outside of a DD election that is 🙂

  18. confessions @ #216 Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 5:43 pm

    Trump belongs to Hilary, her campaign and the DNC.

    Nope Trump belongs to the people who voted for him, and their willingness to be taken in by his lies.
    And if the behaviour of Republican voters past is any indication, these idiots will continue to vote for him.
    The people Maher was pillorying are those Democrat voters who sat out the election because their pure preferred candidate in Sanders or Warren didn’t get the nod. They know who they are, and as evidenced by DTT’s withdrawal from the blog having trashed Clinton and spruiked Trump, are obviously feeling all kinds of numpty moron. They deserve to feel thus.

    I was unaware DTT had a vote in the US Presidential election.
    I thought all her posts were just arguments put on a blog in Australia.
    Now, courtesy of Confessions, we all know she was responsible for the result of the US Presidential election.

  19. Zoomster

    which has always been there finding a new label to slap on their heads.

    Take NSW, please ( 🙂 ) , still being run by the ‘Rum Corp’ .

    Yes the Trump voters are first cabs off the rank when it comes to blame but you have to be pretty incompetent to loose to a “pussy grabbing” dodgy , reality TV wallah like Trump.

  20. Looks like we can add Corbyn supporters to the Maher shit list of hand-wringing kale eaters who think the answer to winning govt is to become more pure and less pragmatic:

    hat more evidence do they need? What more proof do the Labour leadership and its supporters require? This was not an opinion poll. This was not a judgment delivered by the hated mainstream media. This was the verdict of the electorate, expressed through the ballot box, and it could scarcely have been clearer – or more damning.

    The headline figure is a projected national share of 27%, the worst recorded by an opposition since the BBC started making such calculations in 1981. The Tory lead of 11 percentage points is larger than the one Margaret Thatcher enjoyed as she headed into the elections of 1983 or 1987, when she won triple-figure landslides.

    The one-time Labour citadels that fell are jaw-dropping. Labour lost control of Glasgow, which it had ruled for most of the past 70 years. It lost the new mayoralty of Tees Valley – which covers Darlington, Hartlepool, Stockton, Middlesbrough, Redcar and Cleveland – to the Conservatives. Just imagine those towns preferring the Tories over Labour: even two years ago the very idea would have been unthinkable. Labour lost in Merthyr, Derbyshire and the West Midlands – the last a region that in 2015 voted Labour over the Tories by 42% to 33%. Tories picked up seats in some of the most deprived parts of the country, including Shettleston in Glasgow and Ferguslie Park in Paisley.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/05/jeremy-corbyn-blame-meltdown-labour-leader

    The concluding para says it all. Voters want to back Labour but…Corbyn.

  21. personality politics is what is actually getting the world into trouble right now.

    Instead of voting for a party or platform, people are voting for ‘a person’ or against one – whatever the case may be. Leaders are only as good as their platform of policies, no matter how strong a personality they are. Thus we’ve had Trump, Abbott and similarly unsuitable people running countries. And they come unstuck fast because they have no acceptable foundation upon which to keep standing.

  22. I know how some people here hate me using old links. I regret to have to say this one is nearly three days old. I can only apologize for my tardiness …
    https://www.ft.com/content/73c11a9c-2bf0-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c

    By 2020 Australia is forecast to be the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas …

    Where will all this gas go? Mostly to China, India, South Korea, Japan, Malaysia & Taiwan.

    And what will it do there? Generate electricity, largely by displacing coal and other more polluting fossil fuels, significantly reducing C02 emissions in those countries, and therefore helping them meet their Paris commitments.

    So even if Australia is too dumb to do the same, at least our gas is being put to good use by others!

    The article goes on to describe how little effect a gas reservation policy would have on these exports, and makes it clear that the real reason the gas companies are so opposed to one is that they are trying to use the artificial domestic shortage and inflated price to force the overturning of the fracking bans put in place by NSW, Victoria and the NT.

    And by the way, I’ve just discovered that the Greens support a gas reservation policy. For some reason I thought they were opposed, so my apologies if I have slighted any Greens here on this particular policy. Given that all three parties now seem to support a gas reservation policy (of some kind), it seems inevitable that this will come about. The devil is still in the detail, of course, but overall this will be a good thing.

  24. Chinda63,

    “Reporting from the SA Chapter knees-up at the North Kapunda Hotel.

    Food was excellent, red wine “bloody awful” according to BK.”

    Chins up. Don’t they keep the best wine until the end?

  25. Confessions
    Far Left kami kazi explanations:
    1. It is all the fault of the Conservative voters.
    2. It is all the fault of the SNP.
    3. It is all the fault of the MSM.
    4. It is all the fault 0f (supply word for anything or anybody).
    5. It is all the fault of the 73% of British voters who voted against Corbyn.
    6. It is all the fault of the Labour MP rats who deserted Corbyn.

    What happened at the local council elections is about to be repeated in the General Election.
    Looking forward, the Far Left had better have its excuses ready for gifting the Tories another five years.
    Because the Tories will be in a position after the General Election to disassemble a shit storm of EU-based regulations that protect workers, students, the elderly, the sick, the workless, foreigners, the homeless and the environment…

  27. Thus we’ve had Trump, Abbott and similarly unsuitable people running countries.

    You can add Rudd to that list. He ran a personality politics campaign in 2007 and then cried woe is me when he was cut down for failing to deliver to expectations, just as Abbott was, and as is looking likely, just as Trump will be.

  28. Boerwar:

    May was a Remainer but is now a Brexiter. She promised she wouldn’t call a general election until 2020. And now it’s looking like a Tory wipe-out. Go figure.

  29. ‘…but you have to be pretty incompetent to loose to a “pussy grabbing” dodgy , reality TV wallah like Trump.’

    And you have to be pretty stupid to vote for one. And if you’re stupid enough to vote for one, then you deserve what you get.

  30. You need to know this 😉

    The Special Assistant to the President and first daughter has found the time to release a book this week.

    Women Who Work, by Ivanka Trump, hit the shelves as a guide for working women.

    It’s been met with some brutal reviews:

    Jennifer Senior, NYT: “A strawberry milkshake of inspirational quotes”

    Danielle Kurtzleben, NPR: “The aesthetic of a Pinterest board”

    The Associated Press gave it a more general review, describing it as “earnest advice for women on advancing in the workplace, balancing family and professional life and seeking personal fulfilment”.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-06/trump-warm-embrace-for-turnbull-and-aussie-health-care/8503250

  31. confessions @ #227 Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 6:12 pm

    Thus we’ve had Trump, Abbott and similarly unsuitable people running countries.

    You can add Rudd to that list. He ran a personality politics campaign in 2007 and then cried woe is me when he was cut down for failing to deliver to expectations, just as Abbott was, and as is looking likely, just as Trump will be.

    Hehehehe… just can’t help herself.

  32. Swamprat
    Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 3:41 pm
    briefly
    lol…. are you a serious absurdist ?

    hehe…that’s a possibility.

    On the other hand, from a safe distance, perched on the Indian ocean littoral and exchanging pleasantries with my peers in Hong Kong, events in Britain really seem like the twitchings of decaying post imperial exceptionalism. The Brits think they’re important. They’re not. They think they’re different, but they’re not different either. They think they’re powerful….but they are confusing their dreams of the past with a petty separatism of the future.

    The young people of Britain get it. They know they’ve been sold down the river. My son works in London in the modern, knowledge-dense, outward-facing part the cosmopolitan economy. In his words, there is no-one to vote for. The workers of his generation go completely unrepresented. The British have decided to waste themselves.

  33. B
    It rather looks as if reports over the past six months of massive speculation in China using iron ore futures may be about to have an interesting denoument.
    Just in time for the Budget…

    But whether it triggers the coyly-named ‘Credit Event’ in China is moot.

  34. I wonder if there’s a correlation between the Bludger SA gathering in Kapunda and the pizzling that the Crows got and Port are getting?

    Whereas I’m pleased to see the Eagles winning in Adelaide, a victory will take my number of correct footy tips so far to 0/4.

  35. When the males rule.

    Amy Siskind‏Verified account @Amy_Siskind · 16h16 hours ago

    Anyone still curious why erectile dysfunction is covered in Trumpcare/AHCA but sexual asslt, rape, C-sections & postpartum depression r not?

  36. Dan G:

    I’m sitting out the office footy tipping this year, but if I was in i’d have at least gotten one right this round: Carlton! 😀

  38. Hello again just got back from the Kapunda bludgers knee-up. It was great to finally meet SA bludgers in person, and a nice bunch they were too. A big thanks to Puffy for organising and thanks to BK, Chinda, and Macca for coming along. BK may have been right about his wine but the beer was good and they even had a decent veggie curry.

    Political and other discussion was many and varied, ranging from saving the world from resurgent global fascism, to dealing with the Australian Conservative in SA. Actually that might be the one plan. Cory Le Pen-Trump is going down faster than Chris Pyne in an arm wrestle.

  39. Acerbic Conehead

    Chins up. Don’t they keep the best wine until the end?

    In barrels over in SA , which is a bit of a worry.

  40. Further to an earlier post:
    A belief in the “just world hypothesis” is a unifying theme in Pew’s findings: Republicans and conservatives are more likely to hold the erroneous belief that good things happen to good people and that individuals who suffer disadvantages in life that are out of their control are somehow responsible for their circumstances.
    http://www.alternet.org/right-wing/gop-party-death

    It helps explain the ‘Conservative’ take on life to a degree; but where does this belief come from? Parents, Schools, Church, – – -?

  44. Trump and Putin have publicly supported Le Pen.
    Melanchon has refused to repudiate Le Pen and to energetically urge his supporters to vote for Macron.
    Join the dots.

  46. Boer…sounds like grim news for iron ore reliant budgets….meaning most of us…the AUD is off some in anticipation…

  47. B
    I have no idea of the cred of the link B put up but it looks sort of bleak.
    I assume that the Budget numbers were bodgied up before the current iron ore price slump.

  48. BW
    Yes it is not flattering to Melanchon to be joined with Trump and Putin. What do they all have in common? An absolutist authoritarian streak a mile wide. Plus the backing of local oil industries for both Trump and Putin.

  49. I am a tad disheartened by all Collingwood bashing, but I should be used to it I suppose…. anyhoo, back to politics…..

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