BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Little change as usual from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, which continues to show Queensland and Western Australia as the government’s danger zones.

Next to no change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, with the weekly Essential Research being the only new poll conducted over Easter. However, Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection, making gains of one apiece on Victoria and Queensland and dropping one in Western Australia. The state-level seat measures should be a bit more volatile, now that I’m using trend measures to calculate each state’s deviation from the national total rather than the crude post-election averages I was using until last week.

For those wishing to discuss elections in Britain and France, note that there’s a dedicated thread for that. And while you’re about, please take advantage of our sensational Crikey discounted subscriptions offer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

547 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

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  1. PB always takes on this calm before the storm tone prior to Newspoll.

    Apart from a few delicate discussions and obscure historical references, no member seems to contribute much. The anticipation proves too great.

  2. Zoomster @6:13
    “Depends which historians you read. The Russians and Americans were really shirty about England, because Churchill was far more focussed on keeping the Empire than he was on defeating Hitler. Some believe D-Day – and the end of the war – was delayed by at least a year because Churchill was quite happy for the Russians to keep fighting – and dying.”

    OFGS! some idiots believe the Moon is made of green cheese!
    IU yield to noone in my dislike and distrust of the ‘ Churchill myth’ , but that doesn’t mean I line up with David Irving, who apparently believes that if Hitler disliked WC, then Adolf is a good guy.

  3. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-malcolm-turnbulls-satisfaction-rating-on-the-rise/news-story/5b647895b7dbffb81caccf50ead2aae6

    Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull’s satisfaction rating on the rise
    The Australian 9:35PM April 23, 2017
    David Crowe Political correspondent Canberra

    The federal Coalition has gained an increase in support after days of debate over tougher citizenship rules, cutting Labor’s lead to 52 to 48 per cent in two-party terms and improving voter satisfaction with Malcolm Turnbull.

    The latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian, shows the government has slightly improved its position from three weeks ago when Labor led by 53 to 47 per cent in two-party terms.

    But the Coalition’s primary vote has not changed from 36 per cent despite a huge effort to attract public support for tighter rules for skilled foreign workers and a test on “Australian values” for new citizens.

    The Coalition’s primary vote remains six percentage points below the result in its narrow election victory last July, with Labor continuing to hold the commanding lead it established in the polls last September.

    Labor’s primary vote slipped from 36 to 35 per cent compared to the Newspoll three weeks ago while the Greens saw their primary vote fall from 10 to 9 per cent and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation held its primary vote at 10 per cent.

    The combined impact helped the government post a slight improvement in two-party terms.

    In a trend that has held firm for months, 29 per cent of voters now give their first preference to candidates other than Labor and the Coalition — up from 23 per cent at the last election and 21 per cent at the 2013 election.

    The Newspoll survey of 1686 voters was conducted from Thursday to Sunday, after Mr Turnbull released the tougher rules for skilled foreign workers on Wednesday and the citizenship reforms on Thursday.

  4. Gippslander

    Er, my main source for the comments is a biography of FDR’s – before David Irving was even thought of (seems a strange leap to make anyway – can’t see a connection between my comments and lining up with Irving…). Other American histories of WWII make much the same claim.

  5. Oh Fess,

    It essentially looks like a repeal of Roe v Wade by stealth. WTF is happening in America? They are going backwards at an alarmingly regressive pace.

    The same sort of stuff you wanted to happen to Julian Assange: to be prosecuted by the Yanks.

    Remember all those years ago when you said that he should just fuck off to Sweden and face the consequences of the so-called rape. As if the Yanks were interested in him. Well, they were interested, very interested, so much so that after all these years, they’ve finally come up with a “Trump judge” who will prosecute him.

    Funny how that judge came into being, after the election of Trump, isn’t it?

  6. Desert Qlder @ #454 Sunday, April 23rd, 2017 – 9:42 pm

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-malcolm-turnbulls-satisfaction-rating-on-the-rise/news-story/5b647895b7dbffb81caccf50ead2aae6

    The federal Coalition has gained an increase in support after days of debate over tougher citizenship rules, cutting Labor’s lead to 52 to 48 per cent in two-party terms and improving voter satisfaction with Malcolm Turnbull.

    I love how when you’re a political journalist a one-point variation in an opinion poll is absolutely and endorsement of the government’s policy of the day and never just normal variation within the poll’s margin of error.

  7. kezza:

    The Yanks weren’t interested in Assange until Trump came to power.

    What a shame St Julian devoted so much effort to assisting the Russians to run interference on Clinton’s campaign thus benefiting Trump. And after all that Trump decides to go after him when Obama’s administration couldn’t give a toss.

  8. “Well 52:48.
    We can expect more activity to follow before every Newspoll.”
    It’s the activity we can expect before the next election that worries me.

  9. Well at least so far this government has been more ‘boom crash opera’ than action, though I guess at some point they will actually do something, which most likely will be bad.

  10. Mal ratchets up the boats hysteria and US gimme gimme and all he can achieve for Newspoll is an MOE movement of +1 on 2PP?

    #fail.

  11. Fess

    Oh , yes indeedy, the Yanks were interested in Julian Asssange, before Trump. As were you, et al. It was just that they couldn’t find a statute with which to prosecute him, under their constitution.

    Now that Trump had the power to appoint a RW judge, and he did, they’ve found the minor detail of treason in their constitution, and they’re all for prosecuting Assange.

    So, after all, Assange was right. The Yanks were after him. And he had every right to hole up in the Ecuadorean embassy, to evade the fcking bastards. Who, in their right mind, would ever want to be in the clutches of the Yanks!

    And, to boot, he didn’t rape the Swedish women, as they said he didn’t, had you bothered to read their statements. He had permission from Sweden to leave the country, if you had bothered to read the statements from Sweden; what happened was a Swedish prosecutor decided to get up close and personal to the USA, and instigated faux rape claims against him.

    Whatever you think of him – he doesn’t deserve this treatment.

    He’s a political prisoner.

    As for the charge that he “helped the election of Trump”, I have yet to see any evidence.

    The only thing I have against Assange is that he claimed to have stuff against Murdoch, which he claimed was an insurance, and, as far as I know, has never released. That’s weak.

  12. The next Newspoll will probably be after the Budget, which, being a post-election Budget, will be likely to prove as popular as a welfare recipient at an IPA dinner (i.e. as the proverbial pork chop in Jerusalem). Maybe 48-52 is peak Coalition for a while. Unless there’s a war, of course. Right wingers normally do well out of wars, at least at the start.

    P.S. I just typed ‘unpopular as…’ into Google. Jeremy Corbyn, Donald Trump, United Airlines featured near the top of the list.

  13. confessions
    Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 10:07 pm
    Mal ratchets up the boats hysteria and US gimme gimme and all he can achieve for Newspoll is an MOE movement of +1 on 2PP?

    #fail.

    We got the kitchen sink and all out bullshit; and nothing changed. Now what?

  14. The optics are transparently obvious to PB’ers, probably less so to those whose attention is less engaged in the comings and goings of national politics.

  15. So if Assange was safe until Trump appointed a judge to ‘get him’, then his best option was to go to Sweden when he was first accused.

    It would all be behind him by now, he’d never have spent a second in the Ecuadorian Embassy, and nothing the Americans are doing now would affect him at all.

  16. Question:

    The optics are entirely transparently desperate. The metaphorical dry humping of Pence has been embarrassing to say the least.

  17. So if Assange was safe until Trump appointed a judge to ‘get him’, then his best option was to go to Sweden when he was first accused.

    I’ve made this point before in relation to Assange. If Sessions is after him, as it would seem from his public statements that he is, then Assange has wasted years throwing a drama simply to avoid answering to rape charges in Sweden.

    This hits my misogyny bullshit radar big time.

  18. zoomster

    So if Assange was safe until Trump appointed a judge to ‘get him’, then his best option was to go to Sweden when he was first accused.

    No, sweetheart, Assange wasn’t safe, because the US was trying their best to find a loophole in their constitution to charge him. They couldn’t find one; in fact, they announced as much; and who would have believed that. Oh, I know, you would have. Total innocent that you are.

    Now, there’s no holds barred. The US has announced they have the means to prosecute.

    I don’t know about you, but I reckon I’d be pretty suss about being in the custody of the Yanks. You might thinks it’s all all roses.

    The person, or people, I find guilty for the election of Trump, despite Victoria’s attempts to paint him as an angel, is FBI Comey. He’s the bloke who came out, after the revelation of Trumps’ scandalous sexcapades, when Trumps polls had crashed, and re-envirgorated the Hilary Clinton e-mail scandal. It was all over, then.

    Who to blame? Well, Comey, for me. But, apparently, he’s the good guy.

  19. There have been 11 Newspolls on Federal voting intention since September last year. In 9 of them, Labor has been on 52 or 53 2PP. There was one 54 and one 55. If we assume that the true population value is somewhere between 52 and 53, then 54 is well within the MOE, and 55 perhaps just outside it.

    The real headline should be ‘No improvement for Coalition in 7 months’

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll

  20. Fess

    You’re problem is that Assange didn’t rape anyone.

    All your self-righteous bullshit is based on a false premise. Just read the statements of the two women involved. They didn’t claim rape. Never did.

  21. I was in the local RSL club earlier this evening. The main bar / bistro area has a huge Aussie flag against one wall (about 4 * 2.5 metres), with lots of little Aussie flags plus red, white and blue pennants strung across the ceiling. More like a celebration than comemeration.

  22. kezza

    The point is, he’d be safe now, because he would have dealt with the charges in Sweden and either have been released as guiltless or have served out whatever penalty they’d set.

    If he wasn’t guilty of rape, then the penalty would be mild, and he’d have been a free man years ago.

    Regardless, it’s amusing that his efforts to avoid facing the charges in Sweden seem to have backfired on him in this way.

  23. You’re problem is that Assange didn’t rape anyone.

    *rolls eyes*

    So why not man up and face the music like a real man, esp when the US had made it clear they had no interest in him, hence taking his and his fans’ claims of US EXTRADITION!!! out from under him.

  24. kezza2 @ #466 Sunday, April 23rd, 2017 – 10:09 pm

    Now that Trump had the power to appoint a RW judge, and he did, they’ve found the minor detail of treason in their constitution, and they’re all for prosecuting Assange.

    I don’t see what ‘treason’ could have to do with anything:

    “Whoever, owing allegiance to the United States, levies war against them or adheres to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort within the United States or elsewhere, is guilty of treason and shall suffer death, or shall be imprisoned not less than five years and fined under this title but not less than $10,000; and shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States.”

    https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2381

    Only someone who “owes allegiance to the United States” can be charged with treason. Being a non-citizen and non-resident, there’s no basis for pursuing Assange on those grounds.

    Even a Trump-appointee would know that. It’s one of the main planks of their argument for why Trump’s travel ban is should be considered legit; the Constitution doesn’t apply to foreign-resident noncitizens.

  25. Re Peter Piper @10:38PM. You are right. Assuming that the sample size is about 2,000, the margin of error is about 2.2%. The underlying rate might be about 52.5/47.5, which means yes, no change in 7 months. Maybe the 55/45 was a rogue (about a 1 in 20 occurrence). A 1% move one way or another means nothing.

  26. Regardless, it’s amusing that his efforts to avoid facing the charges in Sweden seem to have backfired on him in this way.

    It’s hilarious. All the drama, holing himself up in the UK Ecuador embassy simply to avoid facing rape charges in Sweden because voices in his head said the US govt was gunning for him even when officials said they weren’t.

  27. zoomster

    Are you really so stupid? The reason Sweden came up with these trumped-up charges was to expedite his extradition to the State. I mean, you do realise this was immediately after the Wikileaks expose of thousands of US documents.

    And the reason Assange had left Sweden – with permission – was to go to London to collaborate with the Guardian et al, about the release of the docs provided by Chelsea Manning.

    That’s what is was all about.

    And, no, Assange was absolutely correct in seeking asylum. I can imagine it’s not so nice in the Ecuadorian embassy, but I’d bet it’s a gazillion times better than being in a US jail.

  28. Sky News Australia
    44 mins ·
    #Breaking Sky News wins the Logie for Most Outstanding News Coverage of the 2016 Federal election #Logies

    Amazing seeing as so few Australians actually watch it.

  29. No, kezza, I leave stupidity to you.

    You yourself have said that there were previously no grounds for America to extradite Assange and that it took the election of Trump for these to be found.

    In that case – if you are correct – then there has been no real threat to Assange for years, and he could have taken advantage of that situation to sort things out without fear of being nabbed by America.

    By delaying – according to you – he has put himself in the position where America can now nab him.

    Of course, if you want to retract your earlier claims, you are free to do so – in which case everything I’ve said is irrelevant, because it was based on the information you yourself provided.

  30. …and, of course, there was never any need for Assange to put himself out there to begin with. Wikileaks could have acted purely as a purveyor of information, and those running it could have remained anonymous.

    But Assange couldn’t resist the spotlight – and much of his activity since can be explained by that simple fact.

  31. Obviously it’s pointless arguing the case for Julian Assange since so many people despise him. But being the Julian Assange type of despicable is not enough to warrant false charges, with life imprisonment attached, in my book.

    One of the dopey/worst is : “voices in his head said the US govt was gunning for him even when officials said they weren’t” : except, they weren’t voices, they were actual threats; read the reports of the day. Given the US propensity to break any rule, any law, to get what they want, then I wouldn’t trust them with a barge pole.

    Anyway, I probably wouldn’t stick up for him if my fingernails were going to be wrenched off, but until then, I will. Cheers, and goodnight.

  32. I don’t despise Assange, but I do think he’s made some woefully bad choices since sequestering himself in that embassy. And that Wikileaks was far too important to have been politicized. But that’s exactly what he’s done with it.

  33. Oh FFS zoomster

    Yes, I did say there were no grounds for the US to extradite Assange, but it wasn’t for the lack of trying; the Yanks were all over the shop looking for any means to prosecute him as well as calling for his assassination as an alternative. Or do you have memory loss, as well as stupidity?

    I can’t be bothered with this any longer.

  34. kezza

    According to you, the Americans were keen to get Assange by any methods, including assassination – yet he’s still there.

    If they’d been so desperate to get him by illegal means, then legalities would have been irrelevant.

    My simple point is this: it is ironic that the efforts Assange made to avoid facing the charges in Sweden have made him (in the long run) more vulnerable than if he had faced the charges to begin with.

    …and – if America has waited for a change of judiciary to give it a chance of nabbing him, then it is fairly obvious that (all along) they have been reluctant to try and get him by illegal means.

  35. Didn’t I predict 52-48? 🙂

    I think though, like Rocky and Bullwinkle, Malcolm Turnbull is going to find it increasingly hard to pull things out of his top hat before each Newspoll. Eventually the tiger he tries to pull out of his hat when the rabbits aren’t working for him anymore will bite him, hard. Remember what the other journos said today on Insiders when Niki Savva intimated Newspoll would be better for Turnbull? They said it would just make Tony Abbott more determined to bring him down because of the death roll they are in together.

    And this Newspoll may be an improvement, but the Coalition still aren’t the ones with a ‘5’ in front of their 2PP and their Primary Vote is still woeful and One Nation are the tiger that is biting 10% of them off on their Right flank. 🙂

    As the Chinese are probably saying tonight, after Turnbull tried to do his Little Big Man impersonation and chide them when Pence was around,
    ‘May you live in interesting times, Mr Turnbull’.

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