BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Little change as usual from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, which continues to show Queensland and Western Australia as the government’s danger zones.

Next to no change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, with the weekly Essential Research being the only new poll conducted over Easter. However, Labor makes a net gain on the seat projection, making gains of one apiece on Victoria and Queensland and dropping one in Western Australia. The state-level seat measures should be a bit more volatile, now that I’m using trend measures to calculate each state’s deviation from the national total rather than the crude post-election averages I was using until last week.

For those wishing to discuss elections in Britain and France, note that there’s a dedicated thread for that. And while you’re about, please take advantage of our sensational Crikey discounted subscriptions offer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

547 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

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  1. The Guardian
    1 hr ·
    A video shows a woman in tears and a flight attendant in a confrontation with a passenger after an argument over a pushchair. Surain Adyanthaya, who shot the video on the aircraft bound for Dallas from San Francisco, said the incident occurred after the employee took a child’s buggy from a woman, hitting her with it and narrowly missing her child.

    Warning: some viewers may find this footage distressing.

    https://www.facebook.com/theguardian/videos/10155345333021323/

    America has this creeping law enforcement worship that is totally out of hand. Police, ICE officials, immigration officials, border security officials, air marshalls, the various drug, arms, alcohol and tobacco enforcement officials, and now flight attendants all empowered by crazy cultural norms, backed up by legislation and regulation, and acting way above their respective stations. It has to end.

  2. Kezza
    One interpretation of Brandis is that the Anzacs fought for racial discrimination and indeed, as Hughes stated, the most important local causes for supporting the war was the argument that a loss would threaten The White Australia Policy. So the Anzacs did indeed fight for racial discrimination. This has nothing to do with any war since WW1 or Pm since Hughes

  3. OC – As I understand it, Menzies always claimed that his parents said that because they were sending 2/3 ?? sons overseas, the youngest had to stay behind.

  4. OC

    Any article that includes –

    Prominent Australian intelligence writer Philip Dorling …

    … has got to be treated with a little scepticism.

  5. Fulvio
    There are various differnet mixes you can use to make cement. Portland cement is the standard type of cement used in reinforced concrete.

  6. kezza2
    Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 7:45 pm

    ………

    You have to wonder why a brute like him would want a place in parliament.

    ………..
    ***************************************************************************
    It’s the trough, it’s always the trough…

  7. Yes the apologists for Menzies say that he really, really wanted to go but his parents wouldn’t let him (even though he was the brother with the commission in the militia)
    Of course there were a very large number of Australians who put up their age and ran away to the army despite parental disapproval.
    Years ago, when I worked for the Repat, I met an Anzac who had hit Gallipoli when he was 14 years old. he made the point that he had no real idea what it was about but wanted an adventure. Within 48 hours he had had enough and tried to get his officer to let him go home – the officer was having nothing of it.

  8. Oakeshott Country

    But who’d believe anything Billy Hughes stood for? He swapped and changed as the climate suited.

    I don’t think any of the ANZACs signed up because of anything Hughes had to say. At that time, there was a threat to the Mother Country.

    A lot of the Australian combatants were English-born, or sons of the English-born. They ran to the ready.

    And they ran to their death. They didn’t fight for a White Australia policy; they couldn’t have cared less.

  9. antonbruckner11 @ #346 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 7:30 pm

    When Malcolm hands his hereditary fiefdom, also known as the Wentworth electorate, to his son-in-law, that will show truly spectacular contempt for voters in the area. I wonder if they will cop it, particularly after Malcolm has soiled his brand. Will be fascinating.

    Wentworth is one of Australia’s safest Liberal seats, held by a margin of 17.75%. There will not be enough voters who won’t cop it to make a difference.

  10. OC – He did rather well at the Bar during the war years as I understand it. Another barrister who did well by staying behind was Garfield Barwick.
    In those days, interestingly enough, barristers who took briefs which would have otherwise gone to barristers serving in the armed forces put aside the money they received for those barristers.

  11. CTar1
    I grew up in Hunter and used to listen to Bert’s speeches when parliament was broadcast on the main station. He often made references to “our great ally to the North”
    I believe the report but I think any influence or information he had would have been useless.

  12. Grimace. You’re probably right. But I dream that the combination of a discredited PM and his dead-head son-in-law stepping into the breach might put a big dent in the Lib lead.

  13. Grimace – I do wonder though how much Turnbull’s behaviour can be explained by his desire to shoe-horn Jimmy Brown into his seat. Turnbull would see himself as being in the political dynasty business: Tom Hughes; Turnbull; Jimmy Brown. It may explain why he’s prepared to eat so much s… and is desperate to hang onto the prime ministership until the next election. He knows that, if he wants Jimmy to take over the seat, he will have to fight the next election as PM and pick up a lot of IOUs.

  14. c@tmomma @ #396 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 8:06 pm

    ‘Fess,
    If I were a Lib member I’d be more concerned at the lack of diversity, gender and otherwise manifesting in my parliamentary party at the federal level.
    Sigh. And even when they do choose a woman, she’s sometimes a former Military officer,such as WA’s Linda Reynolds!

    Is military service something to be held against a MP? Better let Mark McGowan and Mike Kelly know.
    Actually I think Linda Reynolds is smarter than most on her side.

  15. This will,be a big policy decision for Labor. As usual they can always adopt the policy and pay lip service while in office (at least in Qld). But with renewables now getting cheaper than coal, leaving coal in the ground is where we are headed. So this policy is makng a virtue of necessity. Without public money subsidies, the new mines are not viable. The Qld economy will need some support.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-being-pushed-to-embrace-fossil-fuel-policy-leaving-coal-in-the-ground-20170422-gvq6u6.html

  16. C@t

    [Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 8:01 pm
    Boerwar,
    As I remember it, Howard was unable to enlist in the Military, as much as he wanted to, due to a congenital hearing problem.]

    Yes, JWH was deaf as a post in his later PMship, something he hid quite well. The Cabinet Room had a hard of hearing loop, with each spot miked up. Little Johnny’s heraing aid was tuned to the loop, so he could hear was being said. The chamber was also wired up later on.

    The idea everyone had that when he was interviewed, and never answered the question, he was playing some clever game…..

  17. Anzac, like the rest of World War I, passed over the event horizon of living memory into the realm of history and myth since the turn of the century. World War II is rapidly passing from living memory. The youngest WW2 veterans would have been born in the late 1920s and would now be in their late 80s, but the average age of survivors would be mid 90s or older. My family’s last living link, my father, a WW2 veteran, passed away a few years ago aged 94. I used to tape the Sydney March for him when he could no longer attend. For the last few years, positioned just before his old unit’s banner. For his last few years it was no longer seen. Even so, there will be some WW2 veterans the 2030s, but very few.

    The youngest Korean War vets would be in their late 70s. The youngest Vietnam vets are about my age. Most of the 50,000 or so Australians who went would be still alive. Then we’ve had our other involvements in wars and actions since then.

    It will be interesting to see how Anzac day continues. Hopefully no more big wars involving Australia, beter still, none. Even so, Anzac Day’s future seems to be secure for at a generation. Hopefully Anzac won’t transform into an occasion for mindless jingoism and for politicians and populists to wrap themselves in the flag.

  18. oakeshott country @ #419 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 8:30 pm

    CTar1
    I grew up in Hunter and used to listen to Bert’s speeches when parliament was broadcast on the main station. He often made references to “our great ally to the North”
    I believe the report but I think any influence or information he had would have been useless.

    My father served in WWII and developed a fondness for our Russian allies and also the Yugoslav Partisans who rescued a number of pilots from his squadron who were shot down over Yugoslavia. I think it was passed on to my brother and I.

  19. fulvio sammut @ #357 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 7:39 pm

    Why is Turnbull passing on his proposed hereditary title to Wentworth to his son in law?
    Isn’t his daughter good enough?

    The L/NP have a dearth of women of calibre, they just can’t seem to attract the right sort. In the case of Ms Turnbull they may actually have a genuine case.

  20. The 2017 Budget will be released 7:30PM Tuesday May 9, i.e. in 16 days’ time. My guess is it will include a massive attack on the unemployed, especially the young, plus a resurrection of many of the zombies they couldn’t get going in 2014. That plus some bullshit measures to pretend to address housing affordability and maybe a few token efforts to address tax avoision. However, no Liberal backers / funders will be harmed.

  21. Okay I didn’t get the furious objection to Trump’s SC pick outside the fact it was wrangled for him by Republicans in the parliament. But this is unbelievable.

    Imagine a stay-at-home mom who can do an abortion. Or a college student. Imagine she knows how to administer local anesthesia, has the medicines to induce miscarriage, can dilate a cervix, scrape a uterus. Imagine a group — with no medical training — performing dozens of abortions a week, in secret, at great risk to themselves, their families and the women they serve.

    That is the story of Jane, an underground group in Chicago that carried out thousands of abortions between 1969 and 1973, when abortion was illegal. It’s a story of code names and safe houses, a story of women taking control of their lives and teaching other women to do the same.

    Abortion providers and the women they serve now fear that such an underground service may again become necessary. Abortion remains legal, but one conservative justice has just joined the Supreme Court and many are concerned that another will follow. This month the president signed a bill to cut funding to Planned Parenthood and other providers. Many states have enacted laws that make obtaining an abortion exceedingly difficult: About 90 percent of counties have no abortion clinics. In many areas, the procedure is nearly as inaccessible as it was in the days of Jane.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/22/opinion/sunday/the-amateur-abortionists.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

    It essentially looks like a repeal of Roe v Wade by stealth. WTF is happening in America? They are going backwards at an alarmingly regressive pace.

  22. Another rumor re the budget is a substantial increase in HECS, either the course fees and/or the conditions under which it is payable.
    That should really help housing affordability for graduate first home buyers.

  23. Re my post about War veterans, the Korean conflict hot war ended in 1953 (and hopefully isn’t about to restart). The youngest Australian veterans might have been 17 or 18 in 1953 (there would have been younger Koreans). So the youngest Australian veterans would now be about 81-82. Our youngest Vietnam war veterans might have been 18 in 1972 and would now be 62-63.

  24. Watching with interest the French Presidential first round..

    There are 11 candidates in the running for Sunday’s first round, including a pair of Trotskyists, three fringe nationalists, a former shepherd, and a man who wants to colonise Mars.

    But there are just four who stand a chance of getting through to the run-off on May 7: Ms Le Pen, Mr Macron, the communist-backed firebrand Jean-Luc-Mélenchon, and the scandal-scarred conservative François Fillon.

  25. confessions @ #402 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 8:15 pm

    The Guardian
    1 hr ·
    A video shows a woman in tears and a flight attendant in a confrontation with a passenger after an argument over a pushchair. Surain Adyanthaya, who shot the video on the aircraft bound for Dallas from San Francisco, said the incident occurred after the employee took a child’s buggy from a woman, hitting her with it and narrowly missing her child.
    Warning: some viewers may find this footage distressing.

    https://www.facebook.com/theguardian/videos/10155345333021323/
    America has this creeping law enforcement worship that is totally out of hand. Police, ICE officials, immigration officials, border security officials, air marshalls, the various drug, arms, alcohol and tobacco enforcement officials, and now flight attendants all empowered by crazy cultural norms, backed up by legislation and regulation, and acting way above their respective stations. It has to end.

    The core of the problem is the toxic combination of power without status – https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/104e/56b8717b932af40a577988a22d86e103769c.pdf

  26. Well Bert’s love of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics certainly did not come from his war experience.
    He was a Copper, which was a reserved occupation and immune from conscription.
    It was said that when he left the Wallsend Detectives and joined Federal caucus the average IQ of both organisations went up by 10 points.

  27. oakeshott country @ #439 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 9:09 pm

    Well Bert’s love of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics certainly did not come from his war experience.
    He was a Copper, which was a reserved occupation and immune from conscription.
    It was said that when he left the Wallsend Detectives and joined Federal caucus the average IQ of both organisations went up by 10 points.

    The USSR did become our ‘gallant ally’ in propaganda on the home front.
    The Australian Communist Party benefited immensely in the growth of its membership.

  28. Bemused,
    Is military service something to be held against a MP? Better let Mark McGowan and Mike Kelly know.
    Actually I think Linda Reynolds is smarter than most on her side.

    If you had comprehended my full comment you would have perceived that I do have a visceral dislike of our parliament being populated with too many former military types. They bring with them a certain disposition, which is inculcated in them from Day 1 of Basic Training and it is not one which I think should be brought to bear in too overwhelming a fashion in our national parliament. Although I will admit there are a greater number of MPs from Civvy Street than from the Military and may it always remain so.

    As for Mike Kelly and Mark McGowan, they were both Defence Lawyers, which, even though there were both in the Military, that fact predisposes them to a more thoughtful predisposition than those involved in combat. And the mindset that ensues.

    I wouldn’t put former WA federal Labor MP, Graham Edwardes, in that camp because he saw combat and suffered mightily as a result, which coloured his thinking thereafter.

  29. Indeed
    A special prize if you can name the only occasion that a Communist government (admittedly local) was formed in Australia. Hint: it had something to do with the James.

  30. sprocket_ @ #437 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 9:02 pm

    Watching with interest the French Presidential first round..
    But there are just four who stand a chance of getting through to the run-off on May 7: Ms Le Pen, Mr Macron, the communist-backed firebrand Jean-Luc-Mélenchon, and the scandal-scarred conservative François Fillon.

    I think the main interest in the first round is whether Mélenchon (a Frexit candidate) can out-poll Macron. If he does (and assuming Le Pen is the top two) then France ends up with both second round candidates pushing to leave the EU. If Macron survives that cut, it seems he’d have a relatively easy time taking the presidency in the second round and France saves the EU (for a few years anyway).

  31. I think Newspoll will go back to 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour, maybe even 51-49. Niki Savva on Insiders today intimated that it was likely to be better for the Coalition.

  32. c@tmomma @ #442 Sunday, April 23, 2017 at 9:15 pm

    Bemused,
    Is military service something to be held against a MP? Better let Mark McGowan and Mike Kelly know.
    Actually I think Linda Reynolds is smarter than most on her side.

    If you had comprehended my full comment you would have perceived that I do have a visceral dislike of our parliament being populated with too many former military types. They bring with them a certain disposition, which is inculcated in them from Day 1 of Basic Training and it is not one which I think should be brought to bear in too overwhelming a fashion in our national parliament. Although I will admit there are a greater number of MPs from Civvy Street than from the Military and may it always remain so.
    As for Mike Kelly and Mark McGowan, they were both Defence Lawyers, which, even though there were both in the Military, that fact predisposes them to a more thoughtful predisposition than those involved in combat. And the mindset that ensues.
    I wouldn’t put former WA federal Labor MP, Graham Edwardes, in that camp because he saw combat and suffered mightily as a result, which coloured his thinking thereafter.

    How many is too many?
    There are many quite intelligent and thoughtful members of the services other than lawyers. And most roles are not direct combat roles.
    You have many mis-conceptions.

  33. A special prize if you can name the only occasion that a Communist government (admittedly local) was formed in Australia.

    Well, on the basis of the bleatings of the current coalition, that would have to be the Menzies govt.

  34. OC:

    Oh so I was close with the Menzies post WW2 socialism thing but missed the ‘local’ part of the local government portion of your comment.

    Damn, so close yet so far!! 😀

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