BludgerTrack quarterly breakdown: March 2017

A closer look at federal polling trends at state level, as Labor surges in Western Australia as One Nation loses some of its lustre.

Below is a detailed look at what the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is picking up at state level, enhanced now with Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, to add to the unpublished breakdowns provided by Essential Research and a few scattered results from Galaxy, ReachTEL and Ipsos. Of greatest note are the state election-fuelled blowout to Labor in Western Australia, and the apparent downturn for One Nation over the past month or two, not just in Western Australia but also in Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,002 comments on “BludgerTrack quarterly breakdown: March 2017”

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  2. Boerwar

    Canavan and his fellow Govt coal lobbyists sell out the reef and as sure as night follows day tje Greens squeals impotently that it wasn’t them

    You forgot Pallachook,

  4. This from the Chinese Foreign Minister should give the Israelis a bit of a sphincter tighten over how things may be in the future.

    China: World Must fix ‘Historical Injustice’ Against Palestine

    “This is unfair. This kind of historical injustice must be corrected. It cannot continue,” Wang said.

    While it has traditionally played a minor role in the region, last year China’s President Xi Jinping committed US$7.6 million in aid to Palestine in a historic address to the Arab League.

    On Thursday China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, said Palestinians must be able to build an independent state to correct a “historical injustice.”

    http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/China-World-Must-fix-Historical-Injustice-Against-Palestine-20170413-0004.html

  6. Boerwar

    What a lovely xtian love thy neighbour yadda yadda pope that guy was !!

    Pope Nicholas V issued the papal bull Dum Diversas, which legitimized the slave trade, at least as a result of war. It granted Afonso V of Portugal the right to reduce any “Saracens, pagans and any other unbelievers” to hereditary slavery.

  8. jenauthor @ #688 Saturday, April 15, 2017 at 2:51 pm

    Read the whole article (.pdf) Bemused and aligns closely with much of my own research & conclusions. I read the Nag Hammadi a few years back and parts are almost word-for-word ancient Egyptian foundation stories.

    Just got back from a walk so first opportunity to reply.
    I have reads bits of Nag Hammadi.
    You might be able to answer this. What became of the ancient Egyptians? Who are their present day descendants? Are they the modern Egyptians or a section of them?

  9. P
    China is playing cute.
    You want to stuff around in our backyard? Well, we might just get around to stuffing around in Palestine.

  12. I think ancient Egyptians got mixed with a number of races but predominantly the Greeks during the period prior to Rome expansion.

  14. We should go back to having many gods like in ancient times. Much more interesting and creative. The kiddies could draw them in class, and make up their own!
    Like the Tim Tam Labrador god, or the Shit Hot Fishing god.

  15. Boerwar

    Of course Ms P is exactly what you get when you get a BOP situation.

    Or when politicians are no longer leaders, but simply errand boys/girls for the establishment.

  17. While on my walk I noticed a couple of pit covers with NBN on them and during the last week or so I had seen fibre cable being pulled through some ducts.
    I could not see anything that looked like a FTTN cabinet so got my hopes up.
    I also retrieved an item of householder mail from an NBN retailer trying to appear like they were NBNCo and it told me I could sign up now for a 25/5Mbps, 500GB plan for $65 per month. Phone an extra $10 or $20 depending on options selected.

    So to get to the bottom of this I thought I would try the NBN website to see what they say. The result? They plan for NBN HFC to be available at my address between Jan & Mar 2018.

    So I am trying to sort out the good news and the bad news.
    No FTTN – Good
    HFC – Bad but could be worse
    Immediate connection – if true, see HFC above
    Connection early 2018 – Delay bad, but allows some hope plans may change for the better.

    Curse Malcolm Turnbull!

  18. I think that Ancient Egypt was conquered by Alexander in the 4th century BC, who established a Greek ruling dynasty. However, they pretty much went native and Egypt retained its independence until being subsumed in to the Roman Empire in the first century BC. Over the next few centuries it was Christianised under the Eastern Roman (Byzantine) Empire, later conquered by Arab Muslims and mostly converted to Islam. Then several centuries as part of the Ottoman Empire, then for a while the British.

    So I suppose the descendents of the ancient Egyptions still live in Egypt but no doubt throughout the old empires. Meanwhile, the descendents of many of the old rulers, traders, conquerers and migrants live in modern Egypt. Meanwhile, the old Ancient Egyptian culture would have been dead by the time of Constantine.

  20. trog sorrenson @ #715 Saturday, April 15, 2017 at 3:59 pm

    Boerwar

    Of course Ms P is exactly what you get when you get a BOP situation.

    Or when politicians are no longer leaders, but simply errand boys/girls for the establishment.

    :Sigh:
    Or she is relying on it collapsing of its own accord and choosing on what ground she will fight. As Greens leaning John Quiggin seems to think.
    No point in getting into fights when you don’t have to.

  21. steve777 @ #718 Saturday, April 15, 2017 at 4:06 pm

    I think that Ancient Egypt was conquered by Alexander in the 4th century BC, who established a Greek ruling dynasty. However, they pretty much went native and Egypt retained its independence until being subsumed in to the Roman Empire in the first century BC. Over the next few centuries it was Christianised under the Eastern Roman (Byzantine) Empire, later conquered by Arab Muslims and mostly converted to Islam. Then several centuries as part of the Ottoman Empire, then for a while the British.
    So I suppose the descendents of the ancient Egyptions still live in Egypt but no doubt throughout the old empires. Meanwhile, the descendents of many of the old rulers, traders, conquerers and migrants live in modern Egypt. Meanwhile, the old Ancient Egyptian culture would have been dead by the time of Constantine.

    Thanks Steve.
    There just seemed to be a gap in what I had read and knew.
    They just seem to have been airbrushed out.

  24. “There just seemed to be a gap in what I had read and knew.
    They just seem to have been airbrushed out.”

    History is more about the rulers than the ruled.

  26. “On Thursday China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, said Palestinians must be able to build an independent state to correct a “historical injustice.””

    I concur with China’s stance regarding Palestine, but don’t expect the Chinese to apply the same rules to their own backyard. While China lectures Israel, human rights abuses will continue in Tibet and Chinese Turkestan.

  27. Happy Easter P’Bers.
    Been camping with family the past two weeks. Relaxing and chilling out.

    Happy easter to you too davidwh!

  28. Steve is right on the fate of the ancient Egyptians. Alexander had a policy of mixing races … i.e. getting his army to procreate with the locals to make the locals more loyal to him and also to make his men more loyal to the locals because they had offspring. He also dragged cohorts from conquered armies all over the place to fight for him and do the same.

    Thus the ancient Egyptians were crossed with the Greeks at Steve says. The Egyptians, at the height of power also conquered quite a few other cultures and no doubt did some procreating with them as well. e.g. the Masai are said to be descendants of Egyptian Nubian police (messassay – their traditional dress has all sorts of Egyptian symbols integrated).

    Then there is also the supposed “exodus” which was a bunch native Egyptians who refused to return to the old gods after the “Atenian heresy” and were escorted north.

    None of the populations of the middle east or Europe, for that matter, are, or were ever, pure. Egypt was perhaps the longest surviving empire (certainly longer than Rome or what we consider ours), but Pharaonic Egypt basically petered out after being subjugated by first the greeks (Macedonians, really) and then the Romans.

  29. Steve777
    “I think that Ancient Egypt was conquered by Alexander in the 4th century BC, who established a Greek ruling dynasty. However, they pretty much went native and Egypt retained its independence until being subsumed in to the Roman Empire in the first century BC.”

    Ancient Egypt in between Alexander and the Romans was a bit more complicated.
    After Alexander’s death, his huge multi-ethnic empire (of which Egypt was just a part) collapsed. One of Alexander’s generals, named Ptolemy (Ptolemaios), seized Egypt and ruled as Ptolemy I. He and his successors (the Ptolemaic dynasty) ruled Egypt for 275 years, from 305 to 30 BC. The Ptolemaic dynasty was Hellenistic – Greek in culture and language, not native Egyptian (though it appropriated some of its royal customs, like pharaonic brother-sister marriage).
    The last Ptolemaic ruler was Cleopatra VII (the most famous Cleopatra), daughter of Ptolemy XII. The dynasty was quashed by Augustus Caesar, the first Roman emperor, who formally annexed Egypt as a Roman province. Augustus ended Egypt’s independence, along with the lives of queen Cleopatra (suicided) and her young son (‘Ptolemy XV’) (murdered by order of Augustus). However, long before this point, Egypt has come under increasing Roman domination. Cleopatra’s father Ptolemy XII was not much more than a Roman puppet.

  30. jenauthor @ #728 Saturday, April 15, 2017 at 4:42 pm

    Steve is right on the fate of the ancient Egyptians. Alexander had a policy of mixing races … i.e. getting his army to procreate with the locals to make the locals more loyal to him and also to make his men more loyal to the locals because they had offspring. He also dragged cohorts from conquered armies all over the place to fight for him and do the same.
    Thus the ancient Egyptians were crossed with the Greeks at Steve says. The Egyptians, at the height of power also conquered quite a few other cultures and no doubt did some procreating with them as well. e.g. the Masai are said to be descendants of Egyptian Nubian police (messassay – their traditional dress has all sorts of Egyptian symbols integrated).
    Then there is also the supposed “exodus” which was a bunch native Egyptians who refused to return to the old gods after the “Atenian heresy” and were escorted north.
    None of the populations of the middle east or Europe, for that matter, are, or were ever, pure. Egypt was perhaps the longest surviving empire (certainly longer than Rome or what we consider ours), but Pharaonic Egypt basically petered out after being subjugated by first the greeks (Macedonians, really) and then the Romans.

    Thanks Jen.
    I am surprised by the bit about the Masai but none of the rest.

  31. https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/lets-be-real-its-a-pagan-festival?utm_term=.gdVXXlBBlw#.pwgmmDppDb

    Meet Australian Greens senator Nick McKim. Earlier this week, he took the piss out of the fictitious “WAR ON EASTER” by handing out halal-certified Easter eggs and delicious looking non-denominational fruit buns to his staff.

    :::::But it appears the Daily Mail completely missed the complex layering of the senator’s joke, sounding the alarm to its readers that McKim “never once mentions EASTER!”

  32. Incidentally, another thing that affected these ancient cultures was bubonic plague. There were a number of break outs of plague over time which also spread to the Hittites and others in the region. I have a feeling the biblical writings of plagues in various stories (esp books of Moses) note this.

  33. PvO’s column from last week.

    WA State governments have long resisted a multitude of indirect taxes which aren’t socially good but at least raise desperate revenue in other States. Taxes on roads (think tolls) and dispersing poker and other gaming machines throughout clubs and pubs.

    These sorts of taxes, especially gambling taxes, have a significant social cost, but they are one of the few areas State governments can leverage extra taxation income. In some Eastern States gambling revenue accounts for 15 per cent of total State taxes, which gives you a sense of what WA is giving up.

    Don’t get me wrong, the last thing I want to see is addictive poker machines in every corner pub. But with mining royalties down and a broken Federation, not to mention a shafting on the GST carve-up, don’t be surprised if the new Government looks to pokies, or perhaps toll roads.

    http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/opinion/peter-van-onselen-could-poker-machines-and-toll-roads-solve-was-debt/news-story/dd9d693484b21de128a620ecbe2106f3

    I cannot see the Labor govt implementing pokies here – why go down that route when our state has been pokies free? PvO’s other solution of fixing the broken GST distribution model so WA is actually rewarded for not having widespread pokies and the social problems they bring, is a much better idea.

  34. Jenauthor
    “Incidentally, another thing that affected these ancient cultures was bubonic plague.”

    Yes, the so-called ‘plague of Justinian’ in the 6th century was particularly brutal.

  35. In terms of gene flows, Ancient Egypt at its peak touched current borders of Libya, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Chad, various bits and pieces of Phoenicia (very broadly defined) and Turkey.
    At various times it had extensive trade connections not only with the Mediterranean lands but with states bordering the Indian Ocean.
    And let’s not forget the Sea Pipples!
    Or the slave trade!

  37. At the risk of being called a troll, can I just say to the WA residents here that the GST distribution is not broken and is working as intended.

    WA is in a mess because the govt wasted their river of gold

  38. We made ~ $5000 at our Easter Eggstravaganza Trash and Treasure sale today! Plus I bagged a few bargains for moi. 🙂

    Now it’s time for a shower and to put my jammies on. I’ll sleep well tonight. 🙂

    Rowan Dean didn’t turn up again, thank goodness.. However, I did spot (Retired) Senator John Faulkner! I was told he had a holiday house up this way. 🙂

  40. I have the most beautiful picture, a print of a painting that seems quite old, of Cleopatra holding the Asp to her breast as she reclines on a chaise lounge, up on my living room wall above the couch. 🙂

  42. [ So I am trying to sort out the good news and the bad news.
    No FTTN – Good ]
    I apparently get FTTN late next month. Some people in this area are already on it and according to the Whirlpool thread already seeing congestion issues. Not happy. 🙁

  43. [ fixing the broken GST distribution model so WA is actually rewarded for not having widespread pokies and the social problems they bring, is a much better idea. ]

    I’d certainly like to see other states have pokie revenue taken into account when their GST share is worked out. Some kind of incentive for them to get rid of or restrict pokies as the fwarking things are evil when so widespread.

    Toll Roads in W.A. ??? Cant actually think of a new one they could build like that. “Metronet” is all rail and will get charges for anyway. If they wanted to do that they would have to do existing Mitchel, Kwinana, Roe, Tonkin hwy’s??? And that would go down like a lead balloon.

  44. I’d certainly like to see other states have pokie revenue taken into account when their GST share is worked out.

    Yes but the feds will never do that simply because they pork barrel the eastern states like NSW because they have way more contestable seats that can be won.

  45. Sir Git
    The state coalition thought it was a terrific wheeze to have thier royalties discount their GST revenue on a four year rolling average. It meant they they got lots of extra dosh. Unfortunately that only works when royalties are going up. When the boom ended it forked them well and truely. How were they to know that the boom would end?

  48. “PvO’s other solution of fixing the broken GST distribution model so WA is actually rewarded for not having widespread pokies and the social problems they bring, is a much better idea.”

    As an Eastern Stater that’s an idea I can actually live with. Can’t see why these revenues should be treated differently than royalties.

  49. kevjohnno @ #748 Saturday, April 15, 2017 at 6:44 pm

    “PvO’s other solution of fixing the broken GST distribution model so WA is actually rewarded for not having widespread pokies and the social problems they bring, is a much better idea.”
    As an Eastern Stater that’s an idea I can actually live with. Can’t see why these revenues should be treated differently than royalties.

    I am another Eastern Stater who agrees, but I don’t see them as at all like royalties. They are just something that should be discouraged.

  50. Victoria, I value your posts. You seem to have access to (and/or are interested in) important international intelligence communications. Keep up the good work.

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