Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Harmony between the regular pollsters as Essential Research ticks another point back in favour of the Coalition.

NOTE: Nothing new I can report on the comments debacle, sadly. All I can do is reiterate that it’s not supposed to be this way, and the intention is that it will be fixed. If you use Google Chrome, as you should, this plug-in will get the blog looking more like it ought to (with thanks to AR).

UPDATE: We’re all good again. Thank you for your forbearance, where applicable.

Essential Research is now back in line with Newspoll, with the latest reading of its fortnight rolling average recording Labor with a lead of 53-47 after a one point gain for the Coalition. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 37%, Labor is down one to 36%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is steady on 8%. Also featured:

• Questions on political donations, including from whom political parties should be allowed to accept them, which records a net positive only from “individual Australian voters”, and heavily negative results for unions, companies (especially foreign), property developers and casinos. Forty-one per cent support a ban on foreign donations to activist groups, with only 31% opposed.

• On the government’s proposed changes to the Racial Discrimination Act, there is an all but perfect split between strongly support, strongly oppose and no strong opinion either way, following a question that explains the finer detail of the change.

• Fifty-one per cent support and 20% oppose “a carbon emissions trading scheme in the electricity sector to provide more incentive for investing in renewable energy and low-carbon electricity”, demonstrating how much difference including the rationale in the question makes when gauging such issues.

• A question on who should have tax deductibility for donations has churches and religious groups ranking second after “groups that campaign on social issues” at the bottom of the list.

• Respondents were asked which interests were represented by Labor, Liberal and the Greens, and received the responses you would expect, with little change recorded since the question was previously posed in September 2015.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,488 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. IMHO the left/right paradigm is a tired and outdated notion that nowadays means nothing, and is the catch cry of the lazy ideologue. So I agree with zoomster that a party that looks at policy on its merits, rather than through the haze of ideology is an ideal.

    And I’m so glad to be re-acquainted with MB’s curious and slightly disingenuous thought processes.

  2. Abetz makes the top headline at the Oz. What can one say?

    Gays can become straight: Abetz
    PRIMROSE RIORDAN
    Eric Abetz has inflamed the same-sex marriage debate by saying there is evidence gay people can turn heterosexual.

  4. Rossmcg

    Abetz has suddenly been made aware of bisexual people (Hallo Erica!), and is trying desperately to reconcile the knowledge with his attitude to gays.

  5. Why is Bill Shorten and Chris Bowen so against people earning over $300k paying a minimum 35% tax rate (Buffet rule) ?

  6. I imagine a lot of people have turned off Labor after the Adani and fat cat tax protection stuff by Shorten and Bowen.

  7. So Rex supports rich people? You defiantly a LNP supporter.

    Rich take from the poor, fact true and has always been this way, time to change.

  11. It seems the MSM is using the tax debate to put the heat on Labor.
    If I was Shorten I would remind the next journalist (and I use the term cautiously) who asks that we may be two years and three budgets from the next election.

    That is way too far away to be committing to anything. Who knows what Scotty “pub test” Morrison will have done to the deficit by then.

  16. I have no idea how a Buffet rule would work and or what the up and down sides of implementing such legislation would be. Apparently it is all hypothetical atm due to the fact no country has such legislation in place.

    What I do know is

    1) the greens have a Buffet rule as offical policy so that one fact alone gives me cause to ponder and

    2) labor is pushing hard atm for the retention of the deficit levey as part of the budget so I do not think you can say Shorten and Bowen are dogging it on this issue. However, I am sure some will continue to rant anyway.

    Cheers.

  17. Turnbull’s people are only attacking George because this draws attention to the raw deal that many employees face under their term in government:

    Pay blunder ‘serious failing’
    6:08PMJOHN FERGUSON, GREG BROWN, EWIN HANNAN
    The federal government has slammed MasterChef judge George Calombaris for underpaying staff $2.6 million.

  18. citizen,

    I was thinking exactly the same thing. I wonder how much of the underpayment is related to penalty rates ?

    Cheers.

  21. Gays can become straight: Abetz

    Why are the coalition wasting time and energy over nonentities like this and 18C when there are way more important issues facing our federal govt?

    It’s completely ridiculous.

  22. 7.18pm Apr 4 2017

    Talk about cost of living. I took out a Life Policy in 1992 with National Mutual.

    Through various incarnations, and changes of ownership (now with Integra – or One Path) it has changed into a Life Policy attached to a Super Fund.

    My monthly premiums have skyrocketed to $1480 p.a. (from an initial $480 p.a.). Or, if you like, from $90 p.m. two years ago, to $123 p.m. now. A 36% increase in two years.

    When does Malcolm Turnbull acknowledge this aspect of Cost of Living (or Dying)?

  26. Does anyone have the slightest doubt that Eric prances around his house every night in a tu-tu. Surely, it’s not even in question. But he shows immense discipline every day not wearing it out of the house.

  33. Is Brandis setting a new stanadrd for the position of AG

    What do you mean by ‘setting’? He’s the worst AG in living memory without any doubt.

  37. GG, if you can’t cope with the image of Erica dancing Swan Lake in front of the fireplace, it’s not my fault.

  39. Rex Douglas
    Why is Bill Shorten and Chris Bowen so against people earning over $300k paying a minimum 35% tax rate (Buffet rule) ?

    Listen to the podcast chat between Katherine Murphy and Chris Bowen to find out the answer to your question.(If you can be bothered enlightening yourself, as opposed to being a drive-by bovver boy against federal Labor).

    Chris outlines how, basically, the Buffett Rule would be like using a sledgehammer to crack a nut. Plus further eloquent elucidation that would enlighten you.

  43. C@tmomma
    What is the gist of Bowen’s answer that 35% would be a sledgehammer applied to a nut ? What is the delicate instrument he would like to use on those on the 300k struggle street ?

  45. confessions

    Is Brandis setting a new standard for the position of AG

    What do you mean by ‘setting’? He’s the worst AG in living memory without any doubt.

    Setting a new standard does not necessarily mean it is at the high end 🙂

  46. the greens have a Buffet rule as offical policy so that one fact alone gives me cause to ponder and

    If it’s a Greens policy today it will probably be a Labor policy in ten years, give or take the odd bit of catastrophic damage to our society and natural world.

  47. anton,

    I had no idea you were such a precious non entity.

    You can rest safe. I’ll totally ignore you going forward.

  48. poroti:

    Like I said, Brandis has already achieved the status of the worst AG in living memory. Not sure how much lower you can go, but I’m sure with Brandis he’s up for that challenge 🙂

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