Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition in New South Wales

On the eve of three New South Wales state by-elections, Newspoll finds the Liberal leadership change in January has had little impact on voters.

Newspoll has published New South Wales state voting intention numbers from its polling in March and April, from a sample of 1584, providing the first such results from Newspoll since Gladys Berejiklian succeeded Mike Baird in January. It records the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49, which is unchanged from the November-December result. The primary vote readings are disturbed by the entry of One Nation on 8%, with the Coalition down a point to 40%, Labor down two to 34% and the Greens down one to 10%. Berejiklian opens her account with an approval rating of 44% and disapproval of 21%, while Labor’s Luke Foley is down on both measures, by two points to 32% on approval and four on disapproval to 36%. Berejiklian holds a 43-21 lead as preferred premier, which compares with 43-26 in Baird’s last poll.

There will also be three New South Wales by-elections tomorrow, including a contested race in a marginal seat (Gosford) and two in blue-ribbon Liberal seats where Labor is not fielding candidates (North Shore and Baird’s old seat of Manly). More on that shortly also.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

9 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition in New South Wales”

  1. The Liberals have promised Billions to the North Shore seats for a tunnel and roads but only a few million for roads to the Gosford electorate after taking away over $100 Million that they were going to use to build a rail underpass with when the seat was held by a Liberal.

    It borders on the criminal because people have been killed at the level crossing.

    Anyway, with the Gosford By-election being between a Local who is also a teacher and a Paralympian for Labor and a Stage Mum who is a blow-in to the seat for the Liberals, I think that the Liberals shouldn’t even bother turning up tomorrow to man the polling booths. ­čÖé

    Go Liesl Tesch for Labor!

  2. Plenty of time for people to see that Gladys is a smiling idiot who has left a trail of destruction behind her.

  3. Well I will be manning the only booth that Labor managed to lose on the peninsula in last year’s federal election.

  4. I’m sceptical about the usefulness of two-party preferred (TPP) numbers in electoral systems with optional preferential voting (OPV) and single-member constituencies because of the exhaustion factor. Where compulsory preferential voting is in place, using preference flows from a previous election to estimate the TPP is more reliable. But as Queensland demonstrated in 2012 and 2015, OPV worked to destroy the Bligh Labor Government through substantial exhaustion of Greens preferences, as much as it worked to elect the Palaszczuk Labor Government through a strong flow of Greens preferences to Labor and significantly reduced exhaustion.

  5. Looks like the good people of NSW still need a bit more shafting before their backsides are hurting enough to get rid of this Liberal mob.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *