Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor

The Coalition crashes in the latest entry of a poll series that is coming in unusually high for the Greens.

The Fairfax papers have an Ipsos poll that belies last week’s improvement for the Coalition in Newspoll. The report identifies Labor’s two-party lead as 55-45, but it features a chart showing Labor to be leading 56-44 “by overall preference flows”, whatever that means. The primary votes are Labor 34%, Coalition 33% and Greens 16% – a high Greens apparently having become a feature of this series. Malcolm Turnbull is down five on approval since November to 40% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 35% and steady at 53%, while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 51-30 to 45-33. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

776 comments on “Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    Off to start the process of winning another seat for Labor today. 🙂

    You know, while we are all too well aware of how Turnbull has dashed the electorate’s expectations of him and so the scales are finally starting to fall from the electorate’s eyes as a result, what I want to see now is for that same electorate, especially in South Australia, to see Nick Xenophon for what he is. A Populist Liberal.

    I heard him on the radio this morning saying that, if the federal government ‘solves’ the Energy Crisis (and what exactly he meant by that he didn’t say, whereas to truly ‘solve’ it you need a Price on Carbon Emissions), THEN he will pass the government’s $50 Billion in Tax Cuts!!!

    And the government are saying they want those Tax Cuts passed by the end of this week!

    It’s looking to me like Little Nicky the Little Lib is going to oblige them. Again!

  2. Seems to be a lot of new velocity trains hanging around the Victorian network so I had a look at how many; 48 carriages in the last two years. With the wheels fixed they are nice little units.

  3. Democrats Turn The Tables On Trump And Use His Own Words To Kill The Border Wall

    The campaign promise that Trump made to get Mexico to pay for his border wall was used by Democratic Senate Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) as justification for why Congress should not give Trump a single penny for his wall.

    If Trump wants his wall, he is going to have to live up to his campaign promise and get Mexico to pay for it, because it looks like the Senate isn’t going to give him a dime.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/03/26/democrats-turn-tables-trump-words-kill-border-wall.html

  4. PhoenixRed

    If Trump had one tiny bit of sense at all, he would resign immediately. He doesn’t even know how to pretend to be even a little bit competent.
    Meanwhile I am now starting to wonder if Flynn in some sort of deal months ago, played insider mole in Trump campaign for the Intell Community.

  5. Gittens: http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/company-tax-cut-has-a-notsodirty-little-secret-20170325-gv6d6v.html

    Ross as usual gets it. Problem is I posted almost the identical rebuttal to the whole Business Tax fraud last week. Also did it before the last election. It’s not like dividend imputation is a state secret.

    So how come if some know-nothing bozo on a blog like me can tell exactly why the whole Business Tax Bullshit is a fraud and exactly why the executives of the large foreign owned companies are so hot for it (an issue Ross only alludes to), why are our betters in the media seemingly oblivious? Lazy? Stupid? Class solidarity with their fellow 1 percenters? All three?

  6. victoria Monday, March 27, 2017 at 8:06 am
    PhoenixRed
    If Trump had one tiny bit of sense at all, he would resign immediately. He doesn’t even know how to pretend to be even a little bit competent

    ******************************************
    He is blaming the latest Trumpcare carnage on everyone else but himself ….. he accepts no responsibility – I can’t see him resigning as it would be like him admitting he is a failure and his ego just can’t do that …..

    Maybe a convenient heart attack ?????? so he can get out the back door that way ….

  7. victoria Monday, March 27, 2017 at 8:06 am
    PhoenixRed

    Meanwhile I am now starting to wonder if Flynn in some sort of deal months ago, played insider mole in Trump campaign for the Intell Community.

    ****************************************
    John Schindler hinted some time back that *Moscow Mike* would be the first to rat on Trump …….to save his own neck with reduced jail time

  8. I don’t think Turnbull’s admission that the government supported the penalty rates decision. The government’s position was known by the electorate, long before they admitted it.

  9. While the TPP rating in this poll is encouraging for Labor, there seems to be some strangeness about this poll.
    1. Labor on 34% Primary is too low for them to win Government.
    2. No separate break down of PHON and X is lazy polling.
    3. Preferences being distributed in line with the last election is consistent but may be skewing the oucome. I’d like to see how he preference flows ran in the WA election to see if there has been any significant change.
    4. No one could possibly believe that more people are in favour of a tax cut for business than opposed.

    In short, I like the warm inner glow. But, I’m wary.

  10. While the TPP rating in this poll is encouraging for Labor, there seems to be some strangeness about this poll.
    1. Labor on 34% Primary is too low for them to win Government.
    2. No separate break down of PHON and X is lazy polling.
    3. Preferences being distributed in line with the last election is consistent but may be skewing the outcome. I’d like to see how he preference flows ran in the WA election to see if there has been any significant change.
    4. No one could possibly believe that more people are in favour of a tax cut for business than opposed.

    In short, I like the warm inner glow. But, I’m wary.

  11. ‘The Art Of The Fail’: The Meme That Ate Donald Trump’s Book

    President Donald Trump’s business boasts in his book The Art of the Deal returned to haunt him after the GOP failed to repeal Obamacare and replace it with his Trumpcare health plan Friday. And the irony was not lost on many social media users, who quickly turned the title into hilarious memes.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/art-of-the-deal-meme_us_58d5e0e2e4b03787d358e105

  12. PhoenixRed

    Schindler and a few others have indicated Flynn would be first to sing like canary, but I am starting to wonder if he actually cut a deal months ago and is in fact playing double agent. Just a thought at this stage

  13. Richard Denniss‏ @RDNS_TAI · 14h14 hours ago
    When you cut penalty rates people pay less tax, get more welfare and the budget deficit grows.

    Can’t ScoMo and his advisors see this? Or are they blinded by ideology?
    The exponential growth of the deficit cannot be blamed on welfare growth. There is also the cockeyed decisions of the Coalition to be accounted for.

  14. David Marr on PHON supporters:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/27/looking-back-and-angry-what-drives-pauline-hansons-voters

    In an extract from his new Quarterly Essay, David Marr finds that One Nation voters are richer, more urban and more liberal than you might expect. But they are profoundly nostalgic, display an unusual gloom and share a vehemently anti-government streak

    The White Queen: One Nation and the Politics of Race – https://www.quarterlyessay.com.au/

  15. GG, You are taking the IPSOS too seriously (although the final 2pp might be correct by accident). Labor is always low in IPSOS and the Greens vote is often presented as almost double that of other polling – 16% for the Greens is a joke.

  16. Lizzie

    I guess their mind is focussed on their business friends saving money by paying less wages. As they would be expecting the shortfall to be picked up by increased credit card expenditure which helps their banking friends in turn make more money. Win win…….

  17. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/26/populism-is-the-result-of-global-economic-failure

    he rise of populism has rattled the global political establishment. Brexit came as a shock, as did the victory of Donald Trump. Much head-scratching has resulted as leaders seek to work out why large chunks of their electorates are so cross.

    The answer seems pretty simple. Populism is the result of economic failure. The 10 years since the financial crisis have shown that the system of economic governance which has held sway for the past four decades is broken. Some call this approach neoliberalism. Perhaps a better description would be unpopulism.

    :::
    Populism is seen as irrational and reprehensible. It is neither. It seems entirely rational for the bottom 90% of the US population to question why they are getting only 2% of income gains. It hardly seems strange that workers in Britain should complain at the weakest decade for real wage growth since the Napoleonic wars.

  18. Sohar,

    The Poll is what it is.
    I’ve already indicated I am sceptical of the numbers and why. So, that would put me in the class of not taking it too seriously.

  19. Thanks BK.
    There is an excellent article in today’s GG by Rob Henderson formerly chief economist with the NAB.
    ‘This Energy May Be Clean, But Banks Won’t Back It’.
    It talks in detail why the banks won’t lend money for a new coal fired power station.
    The recent comments by APRA are significant, the banks are wary of coming under scrutiny.
    The GG is also reporting that Canavan is looking overseas for funding for a new coal power station in northern Australia. I guess he wants this to help justify the Adani coal mine. Search ‘Libs looking to Asia for new coal-fired power’, by David Crowe.

  20. I am happy with William’s and Kevin polling trends, the 2 latest results may bump them up a bit, but the 2PP probably still starts with a 53.

  21. Morning all. Poss reckons there’s something wrong with the Ipsos poll:

    Possum Comitatus‏ @Pollytics 12h12 hours ago
    There’s something significantly wrong with that Ipsos poll. The Greens aren’t on 16%, 44% of the Oz population don’t support a corp tax cut

    Possum Comitatus‏ @Pollytics 12h12 hours ago
    The internal mechanics of the poll are incompatible with reality too – with a Greens vote that high, the tax result is even odder

  22. Given that Essential jumped to 55-45 last week while still including the previous week’s 53-47, there must be a high chance that tomorrow’s will show 56-44 or 57-43.

  23. Conducting a poll is expensive. No pollster is going to conduct multiple polls until they find one that suits as you suggest.
    The suggestion is nonsensical.

    Agreed Bemused. But that Newspoll WAS crap. The ALP partisan in me IS suspicious all the same.

    And while I’m on the theme, don’t you think it odd that Ipsos has been absent for ages, and only bothers to return to the field when the hacks think that the L-NP are “back in the game”?

  24. A lot of that Marr article is based on quotes from McAllister’s surveys. Although the raw data is interesting, I’m not sure McAllister’s interpretations are always reliable.

    However, the data says

    ‘One Nation voters in 2016 were almost entirely native-born Australians.’

    ‘One Nation is a party of old people ..’

    Although Marr says ‘ Back in the 1990s, voters were mostly men. That’s shifted..’ that’s slightly misleading. It has shifted, but ON voters are still mostly men.

    ‘Most One Nation voters see themselves as working class. McAllister calls that “pretty clear”. This hasn’t changed in 20 years..’

    There’s a bit of blather about how ON isn’t as big in the country as people think, then figures which show that its figures between 1998 and now really haven’t changed when it comes to the country/ city divide. Oh, and you’re more likely to vote ON if you don’t actually live among migrants (ignorance, as always, is the driver).

    ‘Then and now, the figures show the typical One Nation voter didn’t finish school. Yet they are not unqualified. They make an effort. Tradespeople are strongly represented in party ranks. But eight out of 10 have never set foot on a university campus. ‘

    ‘Education is the clearest link between Hanson, Trump and Brexit. Surveys here, in the United States and in the United Kingdom all point to education as a key component of political dissatisfaction…’

    This is nothing new. The right end of the political spectrum have known this since they first crawled out of the primordial swamp. That is why they defund education at every chance they get, and particularly anything which might help the disadvantaged.

    ‘That about eight out of 10 One Nation voters dropped out of school doesn’t mark them as dumb…’

    No. But school dropouts generally leave at the time of their education when critical analysis skills really start being taught (and when students, for whatever reason, are beginning to grasp these). In any argument of any complexity, what happens is that (rather than admit they’re wrong) people without these skills simply close down – they either resort to abuse or dismiss the counter arguments as spurious (think Trump, think climate change denial).

    ‘No. They are in work and middling prosperous. They aren’t on welfare. McAllister’s figures suggest there’s nothing particularly special about the pattern of employment for Hanson’s people..’

    No mention, though, of the number of retirees, which given ON’s older representation is surely significant.

    ‘But Hanson’s people are oddly gloomy about their prospects.’

    Yep.

    ‘Focus groups say many One Nation voters are working part time when they would like to be full time. Many worry about losing their jobs because they fear a new job will be hard to find’

    So they’re economically insecure (which is connected with lack of education, because you know that that makes you less competitive in the market place, no matter where you are now). And that’s not a surprise at all, and also links them to Brexit and Trump voters.

    Marr doesn’t seem to realise that not having had as serious an economic downturn as America/UK isn’t the point here. It’s the sense of insecurity that matters, not whether or not you (comparatively) have the same justification for feeling insecure.

    ‘Their grim attitudes to migrants also set Hanson’s people apart…’

    Yeah, as if that’s news!

    ‘One Nation is the Pissed Off with Government Party. It was so the last time..’

    OK, so this is where I’m leaving Marr. There’s only so much in depth data analysis showing that ON is exactly the same as it was last time/let’s tell you something you didn’t know already dressed up as significant new findings that I can take.

    I certainly haven’t seen a scrap of evidence for ‘ One Nation voters are richer, more urban and more liberal than you might expect…’ unless your expectations were based on never having looked at any data to do with ON voters ever – in fact, unless your level of analysis was on par with a One Nation voter’s.

  25. Question,

    Or a sponsor article of faith like tax cuts for the Companies is due for consideration in the Senate this week?
    Have you seen the AFR this morning?

  26. Pegasus
    Monday, March 27, 2017 at 8:38 am
    cut-and-paste article.
    Populism is seen as irrational and reprehensible. It is neither. It seems entirely rational for the bottom 90% of the US population to question why they are getting only 2% of income gains. It hardly seems strange that workers in Britain should complain at the weakest decade for real wage growth since the Napoleonic wars.

    The cause is not disputed, the idea that Brexit and Trump are the solution is. Absolutely bonkers.

    Same thing happened in the 30’s. After a decade of boom and rising inequality there was a bust followed by economic slowdown. Instead of fixing the inequality people got sucked into moronic nationalism.

    It took a war to wake up to the horrors of nationalism and fix the inequality.

  27. Pegasus – the Greens in WA should refuse to play ball with Labor unless there is going to be a big hike in mining royalties. Indeed, I can’t see the Greens agreeing to any cuts to services to pay the debts unless the miners wear a lot of pain.

  28. Sounds like Latham is getting worse. And really, who would watch a program featuring him, Ross Cameron and Rowan Dean for heaven’s sake!

    The warring presenters at Sky News are in a curious holding pattern while executives at the station work through a complaint from presenter Kristina Keneally about comments made by presenter Mark Latham that she considers defamatory. The former federal Labor leader said on air the US-born former NSW Labor premier was a “Yankee sheila” and a “protege of Eddie Obeid”, the former NSW Labor powerbroker now in jail. Latham also made other disparaging remarks on his Jones & Co program to fellow presenters Ross Cameron and Rowan Dean on Tuesday night about her time in office that Keneally considers defamatory.

    The former Labor leader also attacked Keneally’s co-presenter Peter van Onselen, a columnist on The Australian, and van Onselen’s wife Ainslie, over her previous role as a diversity champion at Westpac. The latest barney from Sky’s stable of presenters comes after public clashes in the wake of Cameron signing a controversial cartoon at a right-wing fundraising dinner.

    The latest saga is quite a mess for Sky News chief executive ­Angelos Frangopoulos to sort out when he returns from Britain this week. He might like to seek the counsel of a well-regarded media executive quoted in these pages in August 2015, after a previous implosion by the former Labor leader. “It’s just a sad situation. Mark could have forged a great career providing his strong and incisive commentary on the political landscape, but as we found out at Sky, too, things just go off the rails.” The executive who made those remarks? Angelos Frangopoulos.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/media-diary/digital-whiz-wields-the-axe-at-fairfax/news-story/7faede84ed67bef73a8b4ec0fc0ed397

  29. And while I’m on the theme, don’t you think it odd that Ipsos has been absent for ages, and only bothers to return to the field when the hacks think that the L-NP are “back in the game”?

    Despite an actual election in WA that suggested the polls are underestimating the ALP vote?

  30. New ABC chair Justin Milne in his first interview. Says ABC needs to chase millennial viewers as audiences fragment.

    This is in The Australian and in spite of all past advice, I am unable to access the piece, but would love to know the guts of it.

  31. CNN Drops The Hammer On Trump And Tells America That The President’s Words Are Worthless

    CNN’s Brian Stelter delivered a scathing and factual questioning of Donald Trump’s worthless words and said what few on cable news have been willing to admit on the air. Donald Trump’s promises and words are useless and worthless because he has no credibility.

    It is important for the press to cover the presidency because the public must be informed, and false statements have to be fact checked, but why not put Donald Trump on tape delay? Even better, when it becomes clear that the president is repeating false statements, cut away from his rally, and stop showing it.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/03/26/cnn-drops-hammer-trump-tells-america-presidents-words-worthless.html

  32. Good morning all,

    I too am perplexed by the result of the company tax question in the Ipsos poll.

    Has anyone actually seen the wording of the question ? Perhaps it is all the fault of the hipster small business owners who vote green ?

    Anyway, labor vote too low, greens vote too high but I will happily pocket the 2PP and the headlines.

    Cheers and a great day to all.

  33. bk @ #99 Monday, March 27, 2017 at 7:01 am

    Meanwhile South Australia is facing 125 days of power shortages over the next two years, and a high risk of summer blackouts, according to new data that has sparked urgent calls for action. Google.
    /news/south-australia/sa-power-crisis-state-faces-125-days-of-electricity-shortages-over-next-two-years/news-story/3229f43b1d46521dc16ebc27fc2ac952

    This probably won’t surprise anyone who keeps an eye on SA electricity generation. Three times in just the last two weeks the percentage of electricity generated from wind has gone down to single digits … and solar has not fared much better recently.

    Last Friday for instance, wind generation was below 3% (today, for contrast, it is up around 60%). And it is simply not the case (as some here have posited) that when wind generation is down, solar generation is up. There have been days recently when both wind and solar have been down substantially from the average, necessitating the use of diesel generators. That’s gotta be expensive!

    If SA wants to retain an industrial or manufacturing sector, it is going to need some substantial new generation capability, especially if the eastern states also start heading down the same path and substantially increasing the percentage of renewables.

  34. {Barnaby} also promised to “immediately approve” opening up access to special protection zones in the central highlands for harvesting, as an offset to the 10,000 hectares excluded by the possum protections.

    Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg would also be asked to review the threatened status of the Leadbeater’s possum.

    If only we can hold off the protection until the possum is extinct, thinks Barnaby. Problem solved.

    Victoria’s Energy and Environment Minister Lily D’Ambrosio accused Mr Joyce of not understanding the basics of the forestry industry, such as how timber volumes are measured.

    She accused him of offering the mill “false hope.”

    “Mr Joyce’s suggestions are reckless. In fact what they will do is risk the many hundreds of jobs at Australian Paper,” she said.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-27/federal-government-intervenes-to-rescue-heyfield-timber-mill/8388656?smid=abcnewsMelb-Twitter_Organic&WT.tsrc=Twitter_Organic&sf65966216=1

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