The Fairfax papers have an Ipsos poll that belies last week’s improvement for the Coalition in Newspoll. The report identifies Labor’s two-party lead as 55-45, but it features a chart showing Labor to be leading 56-44 “by overall preference flows”, whatever that means. The primary votes are Labor 34%, Coalition 33% and Greens 16% – a high Greens apparently having become a feature of this series. Malcolm Turnbull is down five on approval since November to 40% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 35% and steady at 53%, while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 51-30 to 45-33. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.
Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor
The Coalition crashes in the latest entry of a poll series that is coming in unusually high for the Greens.
A farce, wrapped up in a charade, stuffed inside a hoodwink
Urban Wronski’s has a way with words.
Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
Off to start the process of winning another seat for Labor today. 🙂
You know, while we are all too well aware of how Turnbull has dashed the electorate’s expectations of him and so the scales are finally starting to fall from the electorate’s eyes as a result, what I want to see now is for that same electorate, especially in South Australia, to see Nick Xenophon for what he is. A Populist Liberal.
I heard him on the radio this morning saying that, if the federal government ‘solves’ the Energy Crisis (and what exactly he meant by that he didn’t say, whereas to truly ‘solve’ it you need a Price on Carbon Emissions), THEN he will pass the government’s $50 Billion in Tax Cuts!!!
And the government are saying they want those Tax Cuts passed by the end of this week!
It’s looking to me like Little Nicky the Little Lib is going to oblige them. Again!
Seems to be a lot of new velocity trains hanging around the Victorian network so I had a look at how many; 48 carriages in the last two years. With the wheels fixed they are nice little units.
Democrats Turn The Tables On Trump And Use His Own Words To Kill The Border Wall
The campaign promise that Trump made to get Mexico to pay for his border wall was used by Democratic Senate Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) as justification for why Congress should not give Trump a single penny for his wall.
If Trump wants his wall, he is going to have to live up to his campaign promise and get Mexico to pay for it, because it looks like the Senate isn’t going to give him a dime.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/03/26/democrats-turn-tables-trump-words-kill-border-wall.html
Morning all
Thanks BK for today’s reports
Donald Trump’s staff ‘wiping their electronic devices’ in anticipation of giving evidence
Allegations come just weeks after government lawyers ordered president’s aides to preserve materials that could be connected to Russian interference in 2016 election
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-staff-wiping-electronic-devices-subpoena-fbi-investigation-russia-a7651276.html
PhoenixRed
If Trump had one tiny bit of sense at all, he would resign immediately. He doesn’t even know how to pretend to be even a little bit competent.
Meanwhile I am now starting to wonder if Flynn in some sort of deal months ago, played insider mole in Trump campaign for the Intell Community.
Gittens: http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/company-tax-cut-has-a-notsodirty-little-secret-20170325-gv6d6v.html
Ross as usual gets it. Problem is I posted almost the identical rebuttal to the whole Business Tax fraud last week. Also did it before the last election. It’s not like dividend imputation is a state secret.
So how come if some know-nothing bozo on a blog like me can tell exactly why the whole Business Tax Bullshit is a fraud and exactly why the executives of the large foreign owned companies are so hot for it (an issue Ross only alludes to), why are our betters in the media seemingly oblivious? Lazy? Stupid? Class solidarity with their fellow 1 percenters? All three?
victoria Monday, March 27, 2017 at 8:06 am
PhoenixRed
If Trump had one tiny bit of sense at all, he would resign immediately. He doesn’t even know how to pretend to be even a little bit competent
******************************************
He is blaming the latest Trumpcare carnage on everyone else but himself ….. he accepts no responsibility – I can’t see him resigning as it would be like him admitting he is a failure and his ego just can’t do that …..
Maybe a convenient heart attack ?????? so he can get out the back door that way ….
victoria Monday, March 27, 2017 at 8:06 am
PhoenixRed
Meanwhile I am now starting to wonder if Flynn in some sort of deal months ago, played insider mole in Trump campaign for the Intell Community.
****************************************
John Schindler hinted some time back that *Moscow Mike* would be the first to rat on Trump …….to save his own neck with reduced jail time
Flynn may well be acting as a “double agent” as you say Victoria ….. to save his own skin …
I don’t think Turnbull’s admission that the government supported the penalty rates decision. The government’s position was known by the electorate, long before they admitted it.
While the TPP rating in this poll is encouraging for Labor, there seems to be some strangeness about this poll.
1. Labor on 34% Primary is too low for them to win Government.
2. No separate break down of PHON and X is lazy polling.
3. Preferences being distributed in line with the last election is consistent but may be skewing the oucome. I’d like to see how he preference flows ran in the WA election to see if there has been any significant change.
4. No one could possibly believe that more people are in favour of a tax cut for business than opposed.
In short, I like the warm inner glow. But, I’m wary.
While the TPP rating in this poll is encouraging for Labor, there seems to be some strangeness about this poll.
1. Labor on 34% Primary is too low for them to win Government.
2. No separate break down of PHON and X is lazy polling.
3. Preferences being distributed in line with the last election is consistent but may be skewing the outcome. I’d like to see how he preference flows ran in the WA election to see if there has been any significant change.
4. No one could possibly believe that more people are in favour of a tax cut for business than opposed.
In short, I like the warm inner glow. But, I’m wary.
‘The Art Of The Fail’: The Meme That Ate Donald Trump’s Book
President Donald Trump’s business boasts in his book The Art of the Deal returned to haunt him after the GOP failed to repeal Obamacare and replace it with his Trumpcare health plan Friday. And the irony was not lost on many social media users, who quickly turned the title into hilarious memes.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/art-of-the-deal-meme_us_58d5e0e2e4b03787d358e105
PhoenixRed
Schindler and a few others have indicated Flynn would be first to sing like canary, but I am starting to wonder if he actually cut a deal months ago and is in fact playing double agent. Just a thought at this stage
Can’t ScoMo and his advisors see this? Or are they blinded by ideology?
The exponential growth of the deficit cannot be blamed on welfare growth. There is also the cockeyed decisions of the Coalition to be accounted for.
is = are
David Marr on PHON supporters:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/27/looking-back-and-angry-what-drives-pauline-hansons-voters
The White Queen: One Nation and the Politics of Race – https://www.quarterlyessay.com.au/
GG, You are taking the IPSOS too seriously (although the final 2pp might be correct by accident). Labor is always low in IPSOS and the Greens vote is often presented as almost double that of other polling – 16% for the Greens is a joke.
Lizzie
I guess their mind is focussed on their business friends saving money by paying less wages. As they would be expecting the shortfall to be picked up by increased credit card expenditure which helps their banking friends in turn make more money. Win win…….
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/26/populism-is-the-result-of-global-economic-failure
lizzie @ #118 Monday, March 27, 2017 at 8:34 am
Que ❓
Am, are, is, was, were …….. ❓
☮ ✌
I have just started one of Spike Milligan’s books in which he refers to Neville Chamberlain doing Prime Minister impressions. Rings a bell with out man in Canberra ❗
I bet WA Labor will not treat the 4 elected Greens in the upper house as a joke.
Sohar,
The Poll is what it is.
I’ve already indicated I am sceptical of the numbers and why. So, that would put me in the class of not taking it too seriously.
Thanks BK.
There is an excellent article in today’s GG by Rob Henderson formerly chief economist with the NAB.
‘This Energy May Be Clean, But Banks Won’t Back It’.
It talks in detail why the banks won’t lend money for a new coal fired power station.
The recent comments by APRA are significant, the banks are wary of coming under scrutiny.
The GG is also reporting that Canavan is looking overseas for funding for a new coal power station in northern Australia. I guess he wants this to help justify the Adani coal mine. Search ‘Libs looking to Asia for new coal-fired power’, by David Crowe.
I am happy with William’s and Kevin polling trends, the 2 latest results may bump them up a bit, but the 2PP probably still starts with a 53.
The fact that News have jumped on this poll shows they are ‘Desperately looking for anti Mal Information”.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/work/support-for-turnbull-government-crashes-as-labor-takes-lead-poll/news-story/042e2a65d2106a9de32b7cdd4d960fcc
question @ #24 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 10:04 pm
Conducting a poll is expensive. No pollster is going to conduct multiple polls until they find one that suits as you suggest.
The suggestion is nonsensical.
Morning all. Poss reckons there’s something wrong with the Ipsos poll:
Given that Essential jumped to 55-45 last week while still including the previous week’s 53-47, there must be a high chance that tomorrow’s will show 56-44 or 57-43.
IPSOS is a mess, and should be ignored – I’ll wait for Essential.
Feds
The Ipsos polls have always been tres weird
Bloody Canavan.
Dunno about Qld, but it’s extremely windy down here this morn.
Agreed Bemused. But that Newspoll WAS crap. The ALP partisan in me IS suspicious all the same.
And while I’m on the theme, don’t you think it odd that Ipsos has been absent for ages, and only bothers to return to the field when the hacks think that the L-NP are “back in the game”?
This is the correct link to urbanwronski.
https://urbanwronski.com/2017/03/26/barnaby-joyces-donkey-skin-trade-eclipses-malcolm-turnbulls-18c-freedom-of-speech-lies/
A lot of that Marr article is based on quotes from McAllister’s surveys. Although the raw data is interesting, I’m not sure McAllister’s interpretations are always reliable.
However, the data says
‘One Nation voters in 2016 were almost entirely native-born Australians.’
‘One Nation is a party of old people ..’
Although Marr says ‘ Back in the 1990s, voters were mostly men. That’s shifted..’ that’s slightly misleading. It has shifted, but ON voters are still mostly men.
‘Most One Nation voters see themselves as working class. McAllister calls that “pretty clear”. This hasn’t changed in 20 years..’
There’s a bit of blather about how ON isn’t as big in the country as people think, then figures which show that its figures between 1998 and now really haven’t changed when it comes to the country/ city divide. Oh, and you’re more likely to vote ON if you don’t actually live among migrants (ignorance, as always, is the driver).
‘Then and now, the figures show the typical One Nation voter didn’t finish school. Yet they are not unqualified. They make an effort. Tradespeople are strongly represented in party ranks. But eight out of 10 have never set foot on a university campus. ‘
‘Education is the clearest link between Hanson, Trump and Brexit. Surveys here, in the United States and in the United Kingdom all point to education as a key component of political dissatisfaction…’
This is nothing new. The right end of the political spectrum have known this since they first crawled out of the primordial swamp. That is why they defund education at every chance they get, and particularly anything which might help the disadvantaged.
‘That about eight out of 10 One Nation voters dropped out of school doesn’t mark them as dumb…’
No. But school dropouts generally leave at the time of their education when critical analysis skills really start being taught (and when students, for whatever reason, are beginning to grasp these). In any argument of any complexity, what happens is that (rather than admit they’re wrong) people without these skills simply close down – they either resort to abuse or dismiss the counter arguments as spurious (think Trump, think climate change denial).
‘No. They are in work and middling prosperous. They aren’t on welfare. McAllister’s figures suggest there’s nothing particularly special about the pattern of employment for Hanson’s people..’
No mention, though, of the number of retirees, which given ON’s older representation is surely significant.
‘But Hanson’s people are oddly gloomy about their prospects.’
Yep.
‘Focus groups say many One Nation voters are working part time when they would like to be full time. Many worry about losing their jobs because they fear a new job will be hard to find’
So they’re economically insecure (which is connected with lack of education, because you know that that makes you less competitive in the market place, no matter where you are now). And that’s not a surprise at all, and also links them to Brexit and Trump voters.
Marr doesn’t seem to realise that not having had as serious an economic downturn as America/UK isn’t the point here. It’s the sense of insecurity that matters, not whether or not you (comparatively) have the same justification for feeling insecure.
‘Their grim attitudes to migrants also set Hanson’s people apart…’
Yeah, as if that’s news!
‘One Nation is the Pissed Off with Government Party. It was so the last time..’
OK, so this is where I’m leaving Marr. There’s only so much in depth data analysis showing that ON is exactly the same as it was last time/let’s tell you something you didn’t know already dressed up as significant new findings that I can take.
I certainly haven’t seen a scrap of evidence for ‘ One Nation voters are richer, more urban and more liberal than you might expect…’ unless your expectations were based on never having looked at any data to do with ON voters ever – in fact, unless your level of analysis was on par with a One Nation voter’s.
Question,
Or a sponsor article of faith like tax cuts for the Companies is due for consideration in the Senate this week?
Have you seen the AFR this morning?
The cause is not disputed, the idea that Brexit and Trump are the solution is. Absolutely bonkers.
Same thing happened in the 30’s. After a decade of boom and rising inequality there was a bust followed by economic slowdown. Instead of fixing the inequality people got sucked into moronic nationalism.
It took a war to wake up to the horrors of nationalism and fix the inequality.
GG,
I’ll check it after I get back from my morning chores.
Pegasus – the Greens in WA should refuse to play ball with Labor unless there is going to be a big hike in mining royalties. Indeed, I can’t see the Greens agreeing to any cuts to services to pay the debts unless the miners wear a lot of pain.
Sounds like Latham is getting worse. And really, who would watch a program featuring him, Ross Cameron and Rowan Dean for heaven’s sake!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/media-diary/digital-whiz-wields-the-axe-at-fairfax/news-story/7faede84ed67bef73a8b4ec0fc0ed397
Despite an actual election in WA that suggested the polls are underestimating the ALP vote?
socrates @ #83 Monday, March 27, 2017 at 2:47 am
I am disappointed to see this sort of garbage coming from you.
This is in The Australian and in spite of all past advice, I am unable to access the piece, but would love to know the guts of it.
CNN Drops The Hammer On Trump And Tells America That The President’s Words Are Worthless
CNN’s Brian Stelter delivered a scathing and factual questioning of Donald Trump’s worthless words and said what few on cable news have been willing to admit on the air. Donald Trump’s promises and words are useless and worthless because he has no credibility.
It is important for the press to cover the presidency because the public must be informed, and false statements have to be fact checked, but why not put Donald Trump on tape delay? Even better, when it becomes clear that the president is repeating false statements, cut away from his rally, and stop showing it.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/03/26/cnn-drops-hammer-trump-tells-america-presidents-words-worthless.html
Good morning all,
I too am perplexed by the result of the company tax question in the Ipsos poll.
Has anyone actually seen the wording of the question ? Perhaps it is all the fault of the hipster small business owners who vote green ?
Anyway, labor vote too low, greens vote too high but I will happily pocket the 2PP and the headlines.
Cheers and a great day to all.
bk @ #99 Monday, March 27, 2017 at 7:01 am
This probably won’t surprise anyone who keeps an eye on SA electricity generation. Three times in just the last two weeks the percentage of electricity generated from wind has gone down to single digits … and solar has not fared much better recently.
Last Friday for instance, wind generation was below 3% (today, for contrast, it is up around 60%). And it is simply not the case (as some here have posited) that when wind generation is down, solar generation is up. There have been days recently when both wind and solar have been down substantially from the average, necessitating the use of diesel generators. That’s gotta be expensive!
If SA wants to retain an industrial or manufacturing sector, it is going to need some substantial new generation capability, especially if the eastern states also start heading down the same path and substantially increasing the percentage of renewables.
If only we can hold off the protection until the possum is extinct, thinks Barnaby. Problem solved.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-27/federal-government-intervenes-to-rescue-heyfield-timber-mill/8388656?smid=abcnewsMelb-Twitter_Organic&WT.tsrc=Twitter_Organic&sf65966216=1