Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor

The Coalition crashes in the latest entry of a poll series that is coming in unusually high for the Greens.

The Fairfax papers have an Ipsos poll that belies last week’s improvement for the Coalition in Newspoll. The report identifies Labor’s two-party lead as 55-45, but it features a chart showing Labor to be leading 56-44 “by overall preference flows”, whatever that means. The primary votes are Labor 34%, Coalition 33% and Greens 16% – a high Greens apparently having become a feature of this series. Malcolm Turnbull is down five on approval since November to 40% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 35% and steady at 53%, while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 51-30 to 45-33. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

776 comments on “Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. I did hear a rumour that the boys and girls in the eastern belt of Perth do have their targets firmly on Mr Porter.
    IMHO it is really really disappointing Labor did not manage to collect the entirely winnable Hasluck last election. I have not been able to find any thing other than candidate / campaign misfire to explain the Hasluck outcome, but perhaps I just didn’t dig deep enough.

  2. How many resets does Turnbull get before the MSM give up on him? It’s got to the point where if they can get something past the ALP in the senate it’s “a great victory”. The ALP don’t even control the senate, not even with the Greens.

  3. WWP

    I would imagine Porter would be very vulnerable to a grassroots Labor campaign of the type which delivered 41 seats a fortnight ago.

    That’s why I wonder whether he might not be a smokey to have a crack at the leadership if it is decided Turnbull is terminal.

    He has an ego bigger than Everest and would back himself to lead the Coalition to victory.

  4. That sounds right, preference allocations are probably variable in IPSOS especially if the do not have much recent polling.

    We probably won’t hear from the media re a Turnbull’s failings and how he was never going to be successful until after he is gone. They are excellent at (re)writing history.

  5. Overall preference flow in Ipsos means that it is assumed that all the preferences that are not from the major parties flow the same way as they did last election. So no matter what the breakdown of the minor parties, all the Green and Others votes combined are treated as flowing about 65:35 to ALP.

  6. Question
    Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 10:57 pm

    They seem to find it easier with ALP leaders.
    Had a busy day. Anybody recon its worth watching insiders?
    With IPOS coming out at 55 I think it is a bit redundant now; they sort of had it in their mind that Turnbull was back in the game.

  7. Dutton is like Abbott, but on some drug that makes you look dopey. Remember the “rising sea level” joke? What a dope. Motormouth Morrison saw the microphone.

    Ah! the good old days… when the 3 stooges were in their prime.

  8. “Dutton $1.87 Bishop $4.00 Abbott $5.00”
    I had the great and unpleasant misfortune of hearing Bishop, who must be trying to make Alexander look like a good FM in comparison talking about the Islamic issue in the South Philippines and there imminent and shock potential as a possible self declared caliphate.
    When I travelled to Manila for work I did a bit of research, you know just to understand a bit of the history and culture of the place I was in.
    So more than 5 years ago the Islamic issue in the South Philippines was already something like 100 years old. They had wanted something like a Caliphate for that long. That our FM with all her access to secrets and the intelligence has only just worked this out did cause me significant concern for her competence. The impression I got, was although the rebels were an ongoing open wound and very unpleasant, they were not, and almost certainly are not now, a threat to the Philippines.

  9. Thanks Fred,

    Think I’ll give it a miss. They’ve run that episode way too often. As recently as last week : ) I remember Tingle thinking the back packer tax was “a big victory” that would see them on their way. The MSM have the bar set so high for Malcolm (sarcasm).

  10. Cupid,

    I think Rex is a bit of an asset for Shorten. I quite enjoy seeing him these days. He’s like an old sheep dog sleeping in the corner of PB and occasionally letting off farts we can complain about.

  11. Absolutely Cupid, and thanks also to Dan for the viewer safety advice : ) I’ll go off and watch some American comedians taking the piss out of Trump then.

  12. Dutton must just love the string of stories saying that he’s stuffed.

    “I’ve tried being a dick to refugees, and people still don’t like me. I know! I’ll be an even bigger dick to refugees. That’ll fix the problem!”

  13. puff, the magic dragon. @ #1870 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 8:31 pm

    What the fck have the Brits ever done to us to deserve Brandis?

    As I often said when I was there, immigration and everything else from the former colonies is just our revenge for Empire. 🙂

  14. wewantpaul @ #51 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 10:35 pm

    I did hear a rumour that the boys and girls in the eastern belt of Perth do have their targets firmly on Mr Porter.
    IMHO it is really really disappointing Labor did not manage to collect the entirely winnable Hasluck last election. I have not been able to find any thing other than candidate / campaign misfire to explain the Hasluck outcome, but perhaps I just didn’t dig deep enough.

    We most certainly do and I’ll be joining the field campaign to help make it happen.

  15. I am not happy that in SA, the ALP didn’t do a preference deal with The Greens. If it had happened Pyne would not be in Parliament. The bigwigs from the Eastern states need to understand, SA is its own beast. We elected Jay Weatherill, so we know what we are about, down here.

  16. The SA ALP and Greens should have preferenced NXT ahead of each other in the otherwise safe Liberal seats. Pyne could not have been removed by a stronger Green to ALP preference flow but a strong Green to NXT and then ALP to NXT would. Same in Boothby. Grey may also have been a NXT victory. This would mean that, while the Coalition would almost certainly still be in Government, they would not have a majority and would have to negotiate more and would loose some votes (such as potentially Marriage Equality).

  17. Also NXT would have lost a lot more of their ALP leaning voters at the next election if they were keeping the Coalition in power.

  18. TTFAB: I suspect that a lot of NXT’s supporters are looking long and hard at his voting pattern – and if they’re not now, then it would be political malpractice for Labor to not bring it up at the next election!
    Xenophony wants to play with the big boys – he can take his lumps like one, too!

  19. What a beautiful set of numbers. I think this shows the last Newspoll was a cleverly timed sugar hit. It was not real. The real 2pp is clearly between 54/46 and 56/44.

  20. Socrates @ #83 Monday, March 27, 2017 at 2:47 am

    What a beautiful set of numbers. I think this shows the last Newspoll was a cleverly timed sugar hit. It was not real. The real 2PP is clearly between 54/46 and 56/44.

    Be careful with this assumption. A ReachTEL or a Galaxy poll could come out in the next week with 52-48 ALP and the balance would be 2 piece between the 52s and the 55s.

    Best to aggregate the polls to get the best picture; Kevin Bonham right now has it at 53.9 to Labor, which isn’t far off from the 54-46 to 56-44 range.

  21. Morning all.
    One thing that Hartcher’s article reminds me of is when Turnbull announced Snowy2.0 he said it was a ‘nation building ‘ project, Frydenberg said it was a ‘game changer ‘.
    These statements said more about Turnbull and the government than the project itself
    It made transparent their desperation.

    The previously ignored essential poll provides a basis for the result.

  22. He said there was a desperate need for buses to take people to railway stations “because the car parks are full”.


    New station at Caroline Springs; opened in Feb; expanded car park in Bacchus Marsh. They are now both full; but it is because the use of the service is increasing; not because there has been no car-park expansion.

    We are getting double track to Melton and more passing sections between Melton and Ballarat. Overpass in Ballarat is being built. What do we get from The Age; this nonsense.

  23. America’s Idiot President Tried To Invoice Germany For Money That They Don’t Owe NATO

    The humiliations never stop with Donald Trump as president. The German government is confirming that Trump tried to intimidate the US ally by giving Chancellor Angela Merkel an invoice for hundreds of billions of dollars that he claims the German people owe NATO.

    The Sunday Times reported, “Donald Trump handed the German Chancellor Angela Merkel a bill — thought to be for more than £300bn — for money her country “owed” Nato for defending it when they met last weekend, German government sources have revealed. The bill — handed over during private talks in Washington — was described as “outrageous” by one German minister.”

    Donald Trump has no idea what he is doing, and his incompetence is embarrassing the United States of America.


  24. If I read the odds correctly, $6.00 for Shorten as next Liberal leader? An outside chance but worth a bet if it comes off

  25. Even His Own White House Admits That Trump Is Failing

    Even Trump’s own White House admits that President Trump has failed to deliver on his promise to change D.C., and Republicans have failed on their promise to change Washington since taking the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014.

    The adolescent naivete of this administration is truly astonishing. This is what happens when people fall for the con artist’s line that neophytes are needed to “shake things up.” Bring in the Wall Street expert to perform open heart surgery and expect winning.


  26. ‘You think I’m bad for America’: Sean Hannity pouts after Ted Koppel schools him on the importance of facts

    Veteran newscaster Ted Koppel recently called out Fox News host Sean Hannity for harming America by encouraging people to put ideology over facts.

    Koppel asked Hannity why he was pushing a “highly partisan agenda” on Fox News.


  27. IoM
    [Im surprised the Libs even nominated a candidate for Gosford. The Manly and North Shore byelections are more important for them and Gladys as already said she doesnt believe they will win Gosford. On that point, North Shore is looking the better option for a boilover than Manly.]

    Maybe they won’t put too much money into campaigning and will rake in the election funding.

  28. One of the big question Lib MPs must face is how many disaffected voters Malcolm can win back. I wouldn’t have thought there are many. He came into power with massive expectations, totally pissed them away, got a second chance, pissed it away. Many voters have just stopped listening to him.

  29. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Quite varied fare today.

    Ross Giitins tells us that our problem isn’t “fake news, rather it’s “fake government”! Ross pulls apart the proposed company tax reduction proposal.
    The SMH editorial says that the Prime Minister should put the Right-appeasing measures behind him, bank any savings from compromises with the Senate, and get on with offering better policies on education, health and housing affordability.
    Peter Hartcher says that recent polling reminds him of the “late Gillard era”. He reckons the last NewsPoll turned out to be an extremely short roll. More a wobble, a vibration without moving.
    Here’s Michelle Grattan’s take on Ipsos.
    Laura Tingle says that the polls are a snapshot of a jaded, fed-up electorate. Google.
    Urban Wronski’s weekly post is up.
    The other day Trump said it was the Democrats’ fault he lost the bill to get rid of ObamaCare – now he’s blaming the Republicans!
    He’s blaming everything and everyone else than himself for the debacle.
    The Trump administration is increasingly showing itself to be breathtakingly incompetent, and that’s the real lesson of the collapse of the GOP health care bill. The administration proved unable to organise its way out of a paper bag: After seven years of Republicans’ publicly loathing Obamacare, their repeal-replace bill failed after 18 days.
    George Williams explains why Australia must learn from our mistakes in the Iraq war.

  30. Section 2 . . .

    Julia Gillard has penned an article in which she tells us why she is stepping back into public life at BeyondBlue. And she warns journos to not even bothering to try to get her to comment on current political issues.
    It’s time to get to work on unvaccinated adults.
    Things are getting serious with Cyclone Debbie.
    It’s official — Amazon delivery services are coming to Australia in 2017 and the majority of local retailers don’t have a plan to be able to compete with them in the consumer market.
    The Federal government will spend nearly $10 billion on information technology this financial year, a massive boost of nearly $3 billion since the Coalition came to power. And look at what a success it has been!
    The unpopular proposed changes to the Racial Discrimination Act are likely to fail, just like the Turnbull Government, writes Dr Martin Hirst. It’s headlined “Making Bigotry Great Again”.
    Abbott’s pet economic bovver boy Tony Shepherd has come out of the woodwork in front of the budget. Google.
    Greg Jericho advises Morrison to ignore the armchair critics as he pulls the budget together.
    The House intelligence committee investigation of the Trump campaign’s alleged links with Moscow looks in danger of unravelling as a result of the unexplained behaviour of its chairman, Devin Nunes, a former Trump adviser.
    The Turnbull government is giving the consumer watchdog sweeping powers to conduct a major review of retail electricity prices. But will it be looking deeply enough at wholesale and transmission costs?

  31. Bushfire Bill will love Hartcher, yet again, doing a bit of “that media , the one over there” . Hartcher himself had nothing to do with pushing that resurgent Turnbull nonsense.

    “Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Turnbull government’s so-called poll bounce was short-lived”
    “To much political and media excitment, a Newspoll last week showed a lift in the Turnbull government’s share of the vote. “

  32. Section 3 . . .

    Meanwhile South Australia is facing 125 days of power shortages over the next two years, and a high risk of summer blackouts, according to new data that has sparked urgent calls for action. Google.
    This usury must be brought into control!
    Australia’s top-selling new cars are using up to 60 per cent more fuel than advertised, according to a report that casts fresh doubt on the accuracy of the laboratory testing underpinning the federal government’s vehicle emissions standards. The writer has drawn a long bow with this statement. Unless the details of the tests and results are known it’s difficult to draw proper conclusions. Driving techniques play a huge part in fuel economy. I drive my car and have averaged 6.5l/100 km against a published 6.6 l/100km over the 30000 kms I have used it.
    We should completely abolish negative gearing, says Frank O’Shea — and let the chips fall where they may.
    Buskers are finding it hard in an increasingly cashless society.
    Our regulators should be instructed to crack down on dodgy employers who are not properly paying their staff their superannuation guarantee and then going broke. This story amply illustrates the problem.
    Adele Ferguson writes that ASIC needs more power over white collar criminals. Google.
    The campaign promise that Trump made to get Mexico to pay for his border wall was used by Democratic Senate Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) as justification for why Congress should not give Trump a single penny for his wall.
    Richo nicely contrasts Lambie and Hanson. Google.
    Well who would have thought? The penalty rates decision will likely rip $650m out of the budget.

  33. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    I don’t like the look of this. Any move by the nation’s major political parties to scrap the federal seat of Mayo would be “effectively a declaration of war”, Senator Nick Xenophon says. Google.
    Almost one in five young people have fewer hours of work than they want, with underemployment in the youth labour force at its highest level in 40 years. It’s getting very serious.
    The practices of extended credit terms and late payments are crippling suppliers.

    Cathy Wilcox and Trump’s “successes”.

    David Rowe goes all the way with Trump’s propensity to talk and Tweet out of his arse!

    Ron Tandberg on the latest interstate population movements.

    Jon Kudelka eavesdrops and Brandis and Turnbull as they work out strategy for 18c changes.

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