Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor

The Coalition crashes in the latest entry of a poll series that is coming in unusually high for the Greens.

The Fairfax papers have an Ipsos poll that belies last week’s improvement for the Coalition in Newspoll. The report identifies Labor’s two-party lead as 55-45, but it features a chart showing Labor to be leading 56-44 “by overall preference flows”, whatever that means. The primary votes are Labor 34%, Coalition 33% and Greens 16% – a high Greens apparently having become a feature of this series. Malcolm Turnbull is down five on approval since November to 40% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 35% and steady at 53%, while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 51-30 to 45-33. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

776 comments on “Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Massola’s story in SMH/Age says 55:45 ALP:COAL, but the accompanying graph clearly shows 56:44 At first glance, the scale markings are a little confusing, but he clearly states November 2016 was 51:49. Using those numbers to interpret the y axis scale means that the current poll is definitely 56:44, unless, of course, they have simply plotted the points incorrectly.

  2. ‘Fess,
    Best wishes to you tomorrow!


    Best wishes to our candidate, Paralympian, Gold, Silver and Bronze medalist, Liesl Tesch too!

    Though I imagine it may be a little easier for us because the Liberal Premier promised a $1 Billion tunnel to the other seat having a By-election, North Shore, but took away $100 Million from the seat of Gosford for our Level Crossing remediation, even after an old pensioner was killed by a train recently as he tried to cross it in his motorised wheelchair!

  3. I mean, you wouldn’t be feeling too kindly disposed towards the Coalition if you’ve been a part of the Centrelink Clawback; the Pension changes; Family Tax Benefit changes; Sunday Penalty Rate Cuts; Housing Unaffordability; 18C changes mooted and you’re part of a Minority; plus other policies of this government which have exposed their mean and nasty streak.

    Yet you still see them willing to defend $50 Billion in Tax Cuts for Big Businesses who you know will just take the money and run!

  4. That Newspoll had PHON up 2% after they had a shocking 2 weeks. It looked suspiciously like they went looking for a LNP friendly sample.

  5. Liesl, who is also a teacher at our local Public High School, said she decided to stand because one day one of her students came up to her after class and asked her a question. He said, “Miss, do you think that it could be the case that I might never end up getting a job my whole life?”
    She said, ” I hope not but I can’t guarantee you will.”

    She told us she wants to change things for the better for that kid. 🙂

  6. The 56% may come from respondent allocated, which seems to be running more in the ALPs favour this year (on a small amount of evidence I admit). The polls underestimated the ALP inWA. 56% sounds right to me. Much more likely than 52%. : )

  7. Apparently there’s an Ipsos poll out showing more bad news for the Tories.

    Gee, and so soon after Mark Kenny assured us that there was a feeling around that Malcolm got his mojo back.

  8. Bushfire Bill
    It is why I enjoyed Kenny’s mojo spotting. He spotted Abbott’s one about 3 months before Abbott bit the dust. It’s a kiss of death.

  9. poroti @ #1785 Sunday, March 26, 2017 at 6:40 pm

    Boo to Dr Karl. There is no need to find common ground. It would not be pointless as the point would be to illuminate the stupidity of Robert’s position. If Dr Karl does not go ahead with it then rest assured the ‘Climate Nutter community’ will present Dr Karl not having it as proof climate change is bull dust.

    I wish I could agree with you here Poroti. The approach you are suggesting has been tried before and it doesn’t work because the science denier spews out a continuous stream of crap and the actual expert simply can’t keep up. The end result of this is the denier ends up looking credible, the actual expert looks like a fool and further damage is done to the cause.

    A good example of this tactic being very effective is the ability of Andrew Bolt to claim that the stolen generation is a myth because nobody can even “name ten” of them. The truth behind the origin of this claim:

    In June 2006 Bolt wrote a column arguing that the Left was frightened of engaging in argument with the Right. In response, I sent a letter to the Herald Sun pointing out the hypocrisy. Five years ago, I argued, Bolt had fled from a debate on the stolen generations. In a private email, Bolt now argued that the reason he would not debate me was that he had not been sent a copy of the Quarterly Essay. He apparently forgot that this contradicted the public reason he had offered in 2001 for pulling out of the debate at the last moment.

    The day after my letter was published, I was invited onto 3AW in Melbourne. Bolt challenged me to name ten stolen children. This was, I must admit, a cunning move. Unless one is prepared for a challenge of this kind, lists of names of the victims of a policy do not trip off the tongue. I doubt I would have done better if I had been asked to name ten victims of the Stalin terror or the Armenian genocide, matters I have read a very great deal about. Bolt’s “name ten” myth was born.


  10. Kenny is constantly flipping. He thinks balance is writing a good article for the L-NP then a good one for the ALP. So this poll sets him up for his next flip.

  11. Malcolm Turnbull will, of course, carry on with his ‘successful’ tactic of continuously pizzling on Bill Shorten in parliament this week. It’s obviously working so well. 🙂

  12. Question – Kenny is basically terrified of calling up Turnbull’s media adviser one day and being told to f… off. So he always tacks back to the Liberal line.

  13. So Turnbull trashing his ideals and acting as a QC for the Alt-Right in Parliament is going down a treat in the polls.

  14. Cotmomma – but according to Mark Kenny, Malcolm always thinks very carefully about what he does, so attacking shorten is definitely a well-thought-out strategy (rather than a nasty shit lashing out).

  15. If I recall correctly when IPSOS started they had a lean towards the coalition , and were regularly 2-3 points below Newspoll or Galaxy. I think they also had a high greens vote.
    I hope Fairfax doesn’t talk trends too much, this is only the second poll since July 2.

  16. In the wake of the WA election this poll just adds to the woes in the west.

    There are half a dozen Libs who probably would lose their seats on these figures.

    While The West Australian has long had a reputation (deservedly) of being a Tory mouthpiece it gave the McGowan government a free kick yesterday with another front page and spread inside on how badly the Feds are treating WA on the GST distribution.

    And they lined up the six WA Ministers for the blame.

    Be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few months.

  17. Anton,

    I am amazed at what Turnbull has to do before he gets written off by anyone in the MSM. I think what is saving him is that the L-NP have nothing else to offer.

  18. Possum:
    There’s something significantly wrong with that Ipsos poll. The Greens aren’t on 16%, 44% of the Oz population don’t support a corp tax cut
    3 replies 15 retweets 13 likes

  19. JR,

    It might have something to do with the way Ipsos handles preferences. They have polled so rarely I don’t know how they allocate them.

  20. 😆 An own goal ?

    “Penalty rate cuts could blow $650m hole in federal budget: Australia Institute”

    Not in terms of their donors. 🙁
    Bit like the Walmart thing in the US. The Govt provides food stamps so the low paid plebs who work for Walmart don’t actually starve, but Walmart’s costs are less and profits higher.

    The Libs, as a general concept, seem to favor the expansion of the “working poor” class in Australia.

  21. C@T:

    Im surprised the Libs even nominated a candidate for Gosford. The Manly and North Shore byelections are more important for them and Gladys as already said she doesnt believe they will win Gosford. On that point, North Shore is looking the better option for a boilover than Manly.

  22. I can believe that:
    Sunday Times quotes anonymous German official saying Trump handed Merkel $400bn bill for NATO at White House meeting

  23. Question,
    The Liberals have no one to fall back on now. They’ve used up all their valid leaders. All that are left are the also-rans. None of whom wildly excite the electorate.

  24. JR

    The lean may have something to do with the way they handle preferences that is. Respondent allocated do seem to add to the ALP vote a the moment. (On the few polls this year where we can see them).

  25. Ides of March,
    Im surprised the Libs even nominated a candidate for Gosford.

    Yeah. I think they did only because they just lost last time, and to have thrown in the towel this time would say something very loud to the electorate about how they think they are travelling.

  26. C@Tmomma

    I reckon that Turnbull takes comfort in the fact that there is no heir apparant.
    Morrison is damaged goods, Dutton and Pyne unelectable. Porter has the ego … I guess that only leaves Kevin Andrews.

  27. C@t,

    It would still be nice if someone from the MSM apart from Bolt (if he counts) called a spade a spade and Turnbull a failure.

  28. Question,
    That ‘someone’ has to be a Senior CPG journo like Michelle Grattan or Laurie Oakes. They are herd mentality Influencers.

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