BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Slight movement to the Coalition in this week’s poll aggregate reading, with still no sign of slackening in the trend towards One Nation.

A bit of a blip towards the Coalition in this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which only has a new Essential Research result to go on. This translates into extra seats for the Coalition in Victoria and Queensland. The only other feature of the result worth remarking on is that it’s still onwards and upwards for One Nation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

366 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

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  4. At least people who vote are show that they care enough about a cause and their countries direction however right or wrong it may be.For me it is a tribute to those men and women around the world who fought for the democratic right to vote.We owe it to them to all turn up and do our duty.

  5. Isn’t it an education problem? Most people who don’t turn up don’t really understand how election outcomes affect their lives. That’s probably why the Republicans want to gut their public education system

  8. Isn’t it an education problem? Most people who don’t turn up don’t really understand how election outcomes affect their lives. That’s probably why the Republicans want to gut their public education system

    Likewise here and the sporadic outburst from conservatives about reverting to non-compulsory voting, spewing freedom of whatever bull shit. Don’t want to vote – don’t – but you gotta turn up. Ever counted votes? Some of the stuff scrawled on ballot papers is hysterical, often literally.

  9. I know that America has nothing like we have in the voting situation in Australia we have to vote but how many other countries don’t have to?

  10. Bonza
    Its possible but its not too hard to realise what a party or movement stand for.Most parties, their agenda is mostly always the same. For me its a simple choice.The party for big business,the rich,the elite,the establishment etc is the Libs.The party for the lower to middle income families,working class people,public services,the less well off who often dont have a voice is the Labor party.The other parties tinker round the edges but in general some are more Labor leaning,some more Liberal.Its never been a difficult choice for me.

  12. puff, the magic dragon. @ #117 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 11:51 am

    Ctar1
    I gave a tourist directions to the nearest tube station, using my handy Tube app, and downloaded London map.
    I told another pair of tourists the way to Big Ben.

    I found that a smartphone (iphone in my case) and Google Maps was essential for me in navigating in London and other cities and towns in Europe.

    I cut down on the data used by using the hotel wifi in the morning to work out the route I was going to take, telling google maps to start, then turning off data. The map works just fine in telling you where you are, purely by the GPS function built into the phone.

    Even if you change your mind about where you want to go, you can turn on data long enough to create a new map, then turn it off, and away you go.

  16. There has been research done for certain countries that dont have compulsory voting.
    A study of a Swiss canton where compulsory voting was enforced found that compulsory voting significantly increased electoral support for leftist policy positions in referendums by up to 20 percentage points. Another study found that the effects of universal turnout in the United States would likely be small in national elections, but that universal turnout could matter in close elections, such as the presidential elections of 2000 and 2004. In the United States, Democrats would most likely fare better under universal voting (as nonvoters are generally more Democratic) but due to the dearth of close races in the United States, universal voting would change “very few election outcomes.” Research on compulsory voting in Australia found that it increased the vote shares and seat shares of the Australian Labor Party by 7 to 10 percentage points and led to greater pension spending at the national level. While [weakly enforced] compulsory voting in Austria increased overall turnout by roughly 10 percentage points, there is “no evidence that this change in turnout affected government spending patterns (in levels or composition) or electoral outcomes.’ A 2016 study finds that compulsory voting reduces the gender gap in electoral engagement in several ways. A 2016 study of the Netherlands found that the abolition of compulsory voting increased the vote share of Dutch social democratic parties while reducing the vote share of “minor and extreme parties”.

    Research suggests that higher rates of voter turnout lead to higher top tax rate

  17. Crikey gremlins strike again.

    the addendum is:

    The LNP are plotting their own course to that destination KJ, they don’t need any help!

    It’s not quite popcorn time yet, but it’s getting close.

  20. how many other countries don’t have to?

    Nearly all of them. Compulsory voting is very much the exception. But as a previous poster said, you just have to show up.

  21. Don

    Even if you change your mind about where you want to go, you can turn on data long enough to create a new map, then turn it off, and away you go.

    It’s like life.

    You can pick your own map or the actual.

  23. Don

    Thanks for clarification. I can’t see how either country will benefit.
    More sugar to Indonesia co they can suffer more toothrot?
    Don’t we have enough of our own pesticides already?

    It’s OK, forget I wrote that. I’m just grumpy at the moment. 🙁

  24. ctar1 @ #171 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 2:05 pm

    Don

    Even if you change your mind about where you want to go, you can turn on data long enough to create a new map, then turn it off, and away you go.

    It’s like life.
    You can pick your own map or the actual.

    Depends on what you mean by actual. I literally make my own maps, often of an alternative reality, but also use the maps of others, depending on the circumstance.

    And no problem about swiping, I do it myself.

  25. lizzie @ #173 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 2:13 pm

    Don
    Thanks for clarification. I can’t see how either country will benefit.
    More sugar to Indonesia co they can suffer more toothrot?
    Don’t we have enough of our own pesticides already?
    It’s OK, forget I wrote that. I’m just grumpy at the moment. 🙁

    Again, it depends what you mean by pesticides!

    I use a range of pesticides and weedicides, and the generics have taken over, much cheaper, and may be from places like Indonesia rather than the US, such as those from Monsanto.

  27. Jake Tapper nails Sean Spicer’s hypocrisy with epic Twitter burn

    On Saturday, Mediaite.com reported, White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer complained on Twitter about a New York Times Story that got his place of birth wrong

    Tapper saw an opening and went for it, writing, “I imagine it must be really annoying when someone puts out false info about where you were born. Must really bother you!!”

    Tapper is referring to Donald Trump’s attempts to undermine the legitimacy of Pres. Barack Obama by pounding on the “birther” conspiracy theory that Obama was born in Kenya, not in Hawaii.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/02/jake-tapper-nails-sean-spicers-hypocrisy-with-epic-twitter-burn/

  28. Labor is creating unrealistic expectations by refusing to accept the decision of the umpire it created

    …This decision is much smaller in its impact than the Labor/union scare campaign implies. It was a fair decision, by an independent umpire, made on the merits of the case. We should thank them for carrying out a very difficult job with such objectivity, fairness and conscientiousness. Labor should pull back from the brink, and drop its threats.

    But if the “independent umpire ” is not, in fact, independent?

    http://insidestory.org.au/a-penalty-lifted-off-the-economy

  31. Some of the worst environmental pollution in the world has been discovered among the World Heritage-listed Blue Mountains, according to researchers from Western Sydney University.

    For several years, environmental science lecturer Ian Wright and his team has been studying the effect of the Clarence Colliery on the Wollangambe River, which runs deep within the Wollemi National Park.

    Since the 1980s the operators of the underground coal mine, Centennial Coal, have been allowed to discharge mine waste into the river under its environmental licence.

    Dr Wright said they discovered pollution not just at the discharge point, but 22 kilometres downstream, right in the heart of the World Heritage-listed area.

    (Defensive bullshit then follows story of degradation.)
    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-26/blue-mountains-pollution-mine-wollangambe-river/8303644

  35. Good points re compulsory voting.
    One problem in the US, that I hope Trump solves for the Democrats, is the disconnect between policies and peoples lives.
    The Democrats should spend the next 4 years telling people that no one , Trump included, cannot bring back those manufacturing jobs.
    What they must also do is spell out, realistically what they would do next term.
    I am not necessarily advocating a leftist full Bern (if that is too much for the Democrat party machine) but at least something that isn’t captive to Wall St.

    Looking back, the ACA should have been implemented when the Dems had the senate (and I think the house) early in Obama’s first term and then defended against an inevitable onslaught by the Republicans, knowing that the right could not see it succeed.

    As far as getting the turnout, Hillary’s campaign didn’t reflect the voters need, whereas it appears Trumps did.

  36. You just have to look back at the Al Smith dinner to see why Trump wont be attending the WHCD. Trump has got a very combative sense of humour – one that is almost medieval. You know – “so I lopped his arm off with my broadsword. Arr har har!”

  37. HALF OF THE WORLD’S coral has been lost in the past 30 years, and only 10 per cent is predicted to survive past 2050 – that’s the dire prediction that has led to the launch of the first global plan to save the world’s coral reefs.

    50 Reefs was launched today at the World Ocean Summit in Bali. The initiative will bring together scientists, conservationists and philanthropists, with the aim to develop and release a list of 50 critical coral reefs to protect along with corresponding initiatives by the end of this year.

    http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/news/2017/02/only-10-per-cent-of-reefs-to-survive-past-2050?adbsc=social_20170226_70313466&adbid=835700937926696961&adbpl=tw&adbpr=34800396

  38. Lizzie,

    Thanks for that link to inside story.

    I have no idea as the qualifications of the author but the article is just another retreat to the default position of many economists and commentators. They refuse to acknowledge the social impact of such decisions and the flow on effect it will have to hundreds of thousands of low paid workers. Everything is just a number wrapped up in economic theory with the real world effect dimply ignored.

    The government, MSM et al can go on and on about Bill Shorten being responible for the decision, independent umpire etc etc. but the bottom line is low paid workers in the real world just got shafted and labor is standing up for those workers.

    Play the politics liberals, I really hope you do while stands firm as the party to protect workers in this country. Not just the affected by this decision but those who will be affected by the flow on as business ramps up it attack across the board.

    Cheers.

  39. Doyley

    Tim Colebatch used to be economics write for Fairfax, I think.
    I’ve been disappointed in Peter Martin today, taking something of the same view.

  40. The howling mob seeks to have JS banned and is relatively silent about the far more pervasive smut. Double standards.

    Intelligent people with a modern outlook on life aren’t much bothered by “smut”. They are bothered by bullying (in which you engage routinely) and abuse. There is no double standard involved in banning for one and not the other.

  42. lizzie

    Here’s one for you …

    From https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/25/half-all-species-extinct-end-century-vatican-conference …

    One in five species on Earth now faces extinction, and that will rise to 50% by the end of the century unless urgent action is taken. That is the stark view of the world’s leading biologists, ecologists and economists who will gather on Monday to determine the social and economic changes needed to save the planet’s biosphere.

    “The living fabric of the world is slipping through our fingers without our showing much sign of caring,” say the organisers of the Biological Extinction conference held at the Vatican this week.

    Depressing, much?

  43. Further: a) no mob howled last night for the banning of John Smith, at least as far as I could see; b) the comment that led to my rebuke was caught by the moderation filter and hence not seen by anyone but me, and c) I didn’t even ban him.

  45. The Christian Brothers have taken the extraordinary step of moving the grave of a notoriously brutal brother from the grounds of a WA school as the Catholic Church reels from revelations of past abuse.

    The Catholic order has dismantled the grave of Brother Francis Paul Keaney at Bindoon Agricultural College, shifting his remains to a humble plot at Karrakatta, effectively erasing any trace of the Brother from the institution he once ruled over.

    Keaney set up the Tardun farm school near Geraldton in the 1920s and was principal at Clontarf and Bindoon Boys Town from 1942 through to his death in 1954.

    Child migrants from Britain and Ireland have given evidence to the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse telling how Keaney presided over a fiercely brutal regime at Bindoon.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/brother-erased-from-history-ng-b88396569z

    Has this ever happened before, a priest cast out even in death? And the new plaque on his new resting place doesn’t even mention his past or that he was awarded an MBE.

  46. Player One

    Thank you, yes, I posted that earlier, I think. Some days there is so much depressing news on the state of the environment that I can’ t remember which ones I’ve passed on, and there is rarely a reaction on PB anyway.

    Granted, it is the pollies who are determined to take us down the road to extinction, so I suppose their little fights and fuckups are important.

  47. lizzie @ #196 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 3:44 pm

    Player One
    Thank you, yes, I posted that earlier, I think. Some days there is so much depressing news on the state of the environment that I can’ t remember which ones I’ve passed on, and there is rarely a reaction on PB anyway.

    Oops! Sorry, must have missed it. It surprises me also how lackadaisical the reaction here is whenever you point out how close we are to toppling over the edge – and in so many areas! I guess many simply don’t know what to do, so they tell themselves that it isn’t really happening – that way they can pretend that they don’t actually need to do anything about it.

  49. Player One

    Some people genuinely believe that by recycling their paper and plastic they’ve ‘done their bit’. I do despair.

  50. lizzie @ #196 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 3:44 pm

    Player One
    Thank you, yes, I posted that earlier, I think. Some days there is so much depressing news on the state of the environment that I can’ t remember which ones I’ve passed on, and there is rarely a reaction on PB anyway.
    Granted, it is the pollies who are determined to take us down the road to extinction, so I suppose their little fights and fuckups are important.

    If only individuals could free themselves to evaluate each days issues according to their conscience without their political teams filter fully engaged…

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