The Essential Research fortnight rolling average moves a point back to the Coalition for the second week in a row, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 35%, with the Coalition steady on 36%, One Nation steady on 10% and the Greens up a point to 9%. The monthly leaders ratings find Bill Shorten taking a big hit, down seven points on approval to 30% and up three on disapproval to 47%, and Malcolm Turnbull a smaller one, down three on approval to 34% and up one on disapproval to 49%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 39-28 last month to 39-25.
The survey also asked respondents if they would be likely to vote for Cory Bernardi’s Conservative Party, to which 14% said yes – which, as is always the case when questions like this are asked, is well above the party’s plausible vote share. Sixty-two per cent say they would be unlikely to, which is on the high side as these things go. The poll also has 17% saying Bernardi’s defection is good for the Liberal Party, 26% bad, 29% neither, and 28% don’t know. As of next week, the Essential Research poll will be published in conjunction with The Guardian.
We’ve also had federal voting intention results from the weekend’s Queensland poll by Galaxy for the Courier-Mail, which has One Nation on 18% (up six since November), the Coalition on 35% (down four), Labor on 29% (down one) and the Greens on 8% (steady), with the Coalition down a point on two-party preferred to lead 51-49. The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 867.
Bob – The Herald didn’t even do the FOI request – that was by a third party.
Antonb.. gee that is pretty sad – or as Trump would say, SAD! I really want Fairfax to follow NYT/Washington Post and discover that there is value maintaining your integrity when all around is falling. It gives you a first mover advantage when people eventually get sick of the click-bait alt-news crap and (hopefully) come to crave proper journalism again. Not that the US businesses are out of the woods, but I’ve heard their subscriber base has grown rapidly post-Trump.
Antonbruckner11
Thanks. It popped up late. The comments I read were 50-50, I think.
It’s an impossible question to answer anyway. Treasury can’t even be certain of estimates five years ahead.
Lizzie
Impossible to answer indeed and not necessarily because the price is not known. Whatever price he gave would instantly turn the whole debate into arguing over the accuracy, can we pay for it ? how do we pay for it? But snot giving a price and saying we must act as the cost of not doing so is higher will then see all the “but Australia is only 1% of global emissions so we won’t make any difference” and a whole series of whataboutery re China and India
antonbruckner11 @ #196 Wednesday, February 15, 2017 at 12:38 pm
This is just an idiotic article as was the line of questioning.
The investment decisions are not being made by Shorten or the opposition or even the Government, they will be made by the generator companies as business decisions based upon a range of future expectations including regulatory environment and technology costs. No politician can second guess this.
The 2 best replies to Murphy’s article:
And:
antonbruckner11 @ #200 Wednesday, February 15, 2017 at 1:03 pm
He should have said:
1. Many existing coal fired generators are reaching end of life and must be replaced.
2. The cost of renewable power sources are now cheaper than coal fired.
3. Ipso facto renewables will be cheaper than a coal based solution.
two different views of the same story
https://thewest.com.au/business/markets/seven-west-posts-underlying-profit-of-957m-ng-b88386951z
http://www.theage.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/seven-west-media-profit-down-90-per-cent-due-to-write-downs-of-yahoo7-presto-20170214-gud53d.html
The Stokes empire is feeling the heat and the chairman doesn’t like questions about his CEO’s philandering.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/cbd/the-question-about-the-amber-harrison-affair-that-outraged-seven-network-billionaire-kerry-stokes-20170214-gucp28.html
Warning: personal remark.
Jenny Macklin is doing a good job of defending NDIS, but she needs to change her hairdresser.
Bingo!!
What I have been waiting to be reported. Trump is stuffed
records and intercepted calls show that members of Donald J. Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign and other Trump associates had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year before the election, according to four current and former American officials.
American law enforcement and intelligence agencies intercepted the communications around the same time that they were discovering evidence that Russia was trying to disrupt the presidential election by hacking into the Democratic National Committee, three of the officials said. The intelligence agencies then sought to learn whether the Trump campaign was colluding with the Russians on the hacking or other efforts to influence the election.
Here is link……..
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/14/us/politics/russia-intelligence-communications-trump.html?action=Click&contentCollection=BreakingNews&contentID=64914123&pgtype=article&_r=0
I believe the key reasons for the drop in the quality of journalism are:
1) The ABC has been undermined by managerialism, that is, the false belief that public sector organizations should be run with the same governance structures, governance norms, and productivity definitions as private sector firms. As a consequence, the ABC is no longer a training ground and supportive place for building a long-term career as a quality journalist with specialist policy knowledge, deep investigative skills, and perceptive interviewing technique.
2) The loss of reliable advertising revenue streams for commercial media outlets has meant that secure, long-term careers for quality journalists are no longer funded. The commercial side of the business is no longer subsidizing the civic mission of journalism. Everyone is instead required focus on the commercial objectives of attracting eyeballs and bringing in revenue.
I think the solution is for the federal government to 1. rewrite the ABC charter to emphasize a civic mission orientation, rather than a commercial orientation, and to reverse the corporatization “reforms” that began in the 1980s; 2. fire people who are mindlessly applying private sector management and governance practices to public broadcasting; 3. create a lot more jobs at the ABC, including jobs of training and supporting and mentoring journalists throughout their careers.
Nicholas
I agree whole heartedly with your para 1.
Joan Jett just about sitting in Ena Sharples lap trying to get her head on TV.
‘A guardian commenter notes that Shorten should have said to Lane that Labor’s climate change policy will be cheaper than extinction. A bargain, in other words.’
Yes, and he should also have pointed out the inherent ridiculousness of the question.
Anyway, Sabra Lane will be pleased – her inane and belligerent questions have got her some publicity.
More poor deluded people not listening to P1 and putting their faith in batteries.
This can never work.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-17/tesla-trading-solar-generated-power-change-electricity-market/7156934
‘I think the solution is for the federal government to 1. rewrite the ABC charter to emphasize a civic mission orientation, rather than a commercial orientation, and to reverse the corporatization “reforms” that began in the 1980s;’
To which I’d add that the charter should be also re-written to emphasise independence from government, and incorporate annual reviews from an independent body, and more transparency regarding complaints and internal decision making processes. Board appointments should also be subject to parliamentary review.
victoria Wednesday, February 15, 2017 at 2:00 pm
Here is link……..
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/14/us/politics/russia-intelligence-communications-trump.html?action=Click&contentCollection=BreakingNews&contentID=64914123&pgtype=article&_r=0
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Well spotted Victoria – things seem to be moving along in a methodical way – like peeling the skins off an onion or those Russian babushka dolls that are layered within each other to get to the core ….
On Politicus :
Now that it’s been established that the Trump campaign – beyond Michael Flynn – had open communications with the Russian government at a time when Moscow was hacking the U.S. election, I’d say an investigation is an order, wouldn’t you?
It’s bad enough that the Trump team made repeated contacts with the Russian government while they were waging a cyberattack on our electoral process; it’s equally troubling that the FBI was sitting on this evidence in the midst of a presidential campaign.
All of this information warrants an immediate and thorough investigation from an independent commission to answer the one remaining – and most important – question: Was Trump or his campaign in any way working together to tip the election in his favor?
If the answer to that question follows the same troubling pattern that’s been unfolding throughout the first three weeks of this new administration, the Trump presidency may be even shorter than we expected
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/02/14/damning-report-reveals-trump-campaign-communicated-russia-campaign.html
Victoria,
Bingo!!
What I have been waiting to be reported. Trump is stuffed
Patience is a virtue. 🙂
Bombshell report reveals NSA intercepted communications between Trump campaign and Russian agents
In an explosive report by the New York Times, it was revealed that that members of Donald J. Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign were repeatedly in contact with Russian intelligence officials in the year preceding the election.
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/02/bombshell-report-reveals-nsa-intercepted-communications-between-trump-campaign-and-russian-agents/
Mark and Murph, showing us how fake news and alternate facts get their leg up.
Kenny cheering on a blatant campaign of lies and misinformation. Oh so savvy eh Mark? Fuck the actual real damage done to the nation by having the best liars get to fuck it up for the rest of us eh? Ignore reality, feed the sleeze!
And Murphy making an issue of a politician refusing to give a nice simple to ramp up the very same campaign of lies and misinformation when pressed by another media dickhead who would rather a gotcha than to actually provide her audience with some insight into the true costs of climate change. Oh so easy to call the horse race. Responsibility is for someone else.
Except these scumbags ultimately are responsible. A lowlife sprouting bullshit to try and pull a con job might catch a few wood ducks, but eventually the word gets around and they are shut down. They can’t do too much damage.
But get the media to launder your lies, distract their audience from the con, disparage and belittle the people pointing out the danger, find a few accomplices of the con artists to argue black is white in the name of balance? Why then you can become PM and really screw millions over good and proper. And your media enablers will merrily go along with it all. Cricket bats is too good for em…
Could someone explain to these Male Chauvinist Pigs, Kerry Stokes and Tim Worner, it’s not about the money but about poor Amber Harrison’s reputation and future employability!?!
http://www.theage.com.au/business/cbd/the-question-about-the-amber-harrison-affair-that-outraged-seven-network-billionaire-kerry-stokes-20170214-gucp28.html
Victoria
Hopefully Pence will go down too. Otherwise the world may be worse off.
An intelligent fascist is worse than a stupid fascist.
phoenixRed/c@t
Yes it is slowly revealing itself.
Patience is indeed a virtue, sadly lacking in me. lol! I wanted this to all happen before inauguration, but better late than never.
In any case, the conspiracy in this Trump imbroglio has several layers.
Bottom line is that they colluded with help of Hackers and Russians to swing the election Trump’s way. And with the help of their supporters in the FBI. And Comey is not one of them.
Trog
I feel that Pence should go down too. He benefitted from this collusion. On some level he had to know. Heck if I knew, and I am just a silly idiot all the way in suburban Melbourne!!
Just listened to AM. Oh god Sabra Lane was attrocius.
And you know who should be tapped to head the Commission of Investigation into the Russian Connection?
Hillary Clinton!
Vic,
I hope to god also that this situation sees the end of that scab on the backside of Democracy, Julian Assange too! I haven’t liked him from Day 1. Even before he became an agent of the Russians. He just didn’t smell right to me.
Nadine Flood
http://www.cpsu.org.au/content/robo-debt-announcement-minor-improvement-not-solution
‘Could someone explain to these Male Chauvinist Pigs, Kerry Stokes and Tim Worner, it’s not about the money but about poor Amber Harrison’s reputation and future employability!?!’
Jeff Kennett was on AM, pushing this line, and when asked a semi-deferential question that he didn’t like, responded with ‘this is what I like about the ABC, it always views the world from a left wing perspective’, or some such nonsense.
c@t
Agree re Assange and also add Snowden.
And from what I have gleaned, it would appear that the whole pretext for investigation Clinton’s emails again, was planted stuff on Weiner’s lap top.
As I said many layers to this imbroglio
c@tmomma @ #206 Wednesday, February 15, 2017 at 1:37 pm
There is no real prospect any longer of limiting global warming to 2 degrees. To keep warming in this range we would need to stabilize C02 around 450 PPM, and do it fast – this would require us to shut down all coal generation much sooner than mid-century – in fact, pretty much immediately. If we continue to burn coal at current rates then C02 levels will reach 450 PPM in under 20 years, and we could already be experiencing 2 degree warming, on our way to 3 degrees or more. Details here …
Vic,
You kknow who I reckon the ‘former Intelligence officials’ who are dripping out the details to The Washington Post and The New York Times are? At least one would be Obama’s former Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper.
It would have been arrogant in the extreme for the Trumpists to think he would just keep his mouth shut after he left office about a matter of such grave importance.
And from what I have gleaned, it would appear that the whole pretext for investigation Clinton’s emails again, was planted stuff on Weiner’s lap top.
😯
Kennett being a dick in this instance pushing the corporate spin after the corporate lawyers have gagged the victim.
Victoria Wednesday, February 15, 2017 at 2:29 pm
phoenixRed/c@t
Yes it is slowly revealing itself.
Patience is indeed a virtue, sadly lacking in me. lol! I wanted this to all happen before inauguration, but better late than never.
***************************************
For me – call me nasty – but all I have wanted is to see Trump PUBLICALLY HUMILIATED – as he has done to many others and gloated about it – and it will be even sweeter if he is hounded out of the Office of President …..as that is mightier than him just a candidate …..
I don’t understand why America is letting itself be humiliated on a daily basis in the eyes of the world by this buffoon and his equally buffoonish administration
C@t
Yep. investigations were fully under way when Clapper finished his tenure. And the Msm is cititing former intell sources as part of their reporting
this buffoon and his equally buffoonish administration
It ain’t called representative democracy for nothin.
PhoenixRed
I understand where you are coming from. And in fact perhaps this is the only way it could have proceeded. If it were dealt with before he was sworn in, it would have created a minefield. This way, he can choose to resign and be dealt with by the law in due course
c@t
Planted or more. Likely Weiner had been sexting a hacker who set him up knowing his foibles. Bit like the Slipper scenario with Ashby
Roger
In today’s West Australian, under the heading “Time to set the record straight” Kennett was given half a page to defend SWM’s handling of the Worner affair.
I did not read all of it.
Worner should have been sacked. It’s an old fashioned concept but if somebody can deceive a partner about why they might have been late home last night or what they got up to while travelling interstate what else are they capable of?
never mind green lighting playing fast and loose with the company credit card.
victoria Wednesday, February 15, 2017 at 2:47 pm
PhoenixRed
I understand where you are coming from. And in fact perhaps this is the only way it could have proceeded. If it were dealt with before he was sworn in, it would have created a minefield. This way, he can choose to resign and be dealt with by the law in due course
************************************
…… and if it can be proven that Trump was actually knowingly ‘involved’ in ANY way – they ought to slap a charge of TREASON on him and all concerned ….
The critical question in the latest scandal regarding the Trump campaign links and conversations with the Putin government is simple: What did Trump know and when did he know it, and was he the driver or passenger?
This creeping and messy story has all the hallmarks of Watergate – illegal activity sanctioned by a President, attempted cover ups and an unexpected end after resignations and dismissals.
Ratsak
I actually prefer the term shit-gibbon to buffoon.
e.g. “this shit-gibbon and his equally shit-simian administration” is a phrase applicable to both Abbott and Trump administrations.
Urban Dictionary
Jeffrey Toobin did a legal analysis of the Trump Administration’s travel ban. He refers to several other legal analysts who support his point that the courts have so far only ruled on the procedural question of whether the ban should be stayed pending judicial analysis of its legality. On the legal merits, the reality is that the Congress has enacted a statute to give the president very broad authority on immigration matters. It will be difficult for the opponents of the ban to prove that the ban constitutes a religious test that violates the constitution. It may even be difficult for the parties who have brought the case – state governments and universities – to prove that they have legal standing, that is, that they have been specifically and significantly harmed by the ban to the degree necessary to challenge the ban in court.
PR,
…… and if it can be proven that Trump was actually knowingly ‘involved’ in ANY way – they ought to slap a charge of TREASON on him and all concerned ….
Reading the NYT story, the answer is probably not. A kind of, ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ situation where the candidate surfed on the wave the others were whipping up beneath him and took full advantage of the swell in his favour.
Remember during election campaign and Trump shouting out publicly to Russia to find Clinton’s missing emails, or his tweet praising Putin for not retaliating to sanctions imposed by Obama?!!
trog sorrenson @ #244 Wednesday, February 15, 2017 at 2:54 pm
I am in awe of your research for the “just right” words. ✌ ☚
Sorry Nicholas, but the thought of the current government being given any opportunity to rewrite the ABC charter, whatever they claimed to be doing, absolutely terrifies!
victoria Wednesday, February 15, 2017 at 3:06 pm
Remember during election campaign and Trump shouting out publicly to Russia to find Clinton’s missing emails, or his tweet praising Putin for not retaliating to sanctions imposed by Obama?!!
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Yes, you are 100% correct Victoria – he publically asked the Russians to get “involved” so that the results of an election could be CHANGED by their hacking of a US citizens mail etc – that alone should have him done for TREASON ( the crime of betraying one’s country, especially by attempting to kill or overthrow the sovereign or government. )