The Essential Research fortnight rolling average moves a point back to the Coalition for the second week in a row, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 35%, with the Coalition steady on 36%, One Nation steady on 10% and the Greens up a point to 9%. The monthly leaders ratings find Bill Shorten taking a big hit, down seven points on approval to 30% and up three on disapproval to 47%, and Malcolm Turnbull a smaller one, down three on approval to 34% and up one on disapproval to 49%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 39-28 last month to 39-25.
The survey also asked respondents if they would be likely to vote for Cory Bernardi’s Conservative Party, to which 14% said yes – which, as is always the case when questions like this are asked, is well above the party’s plausible vote share. Sixty-two per cent say they would be unlikely to, which is on the high side as these things go. The poll also has 17% saying Bernardi’s defection is good for the Liberal Party, 26% bad, 29% neither, and 28% don’t know. As of next week, the Essential Research poll will be published in conjunction with The Guardian.
We’ve also had federal voting intention results from the weekend’s Queensland poll by Galaxy for the Courier-Mail, which has One Nation on 18% (up six since November), the Coalition on 35% (down four), Labor on 29% (down one) and the Greens on 8% (steady), with the Coalition down a point on two-party preferred to lead 51-49. The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 867.
I didn’t hear all of Sabra Lane’s interview of Bill Shorten on AM this morning, but Adrian’s usual vacuous whinge moved me to check it out and I do not see it as being anything like how Adrian characterised it.
Read the transcript or listen to it and judge for yourself.
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2016/s4620126.htm
And any argument that the program overall favoured the LNP is just unsustainable. The only other domestic politics story was the Air traffic controllers warning of increased danger due to job cuts.
Adrian
The standouts in the US are the Washington Post and the New York Times. The same outlets that have stuck to the traditional strength of media. Telling the truth through fact checking.
The Washington Post particularly stands out because once Amazon founder Bezos took over he gave the investigative journalism part of the post his full backing. The readership figures and the breaking news from the Post on issues like the Russia thing have paid that investment vote of confidence back in spades.
Now the Post is increasing its profits in an opposite trend to the malaise of most media. Same is true of the Times.
Guytaur
Thanks and Cheers
tom @ #147 Wednesday, February 15, 2017 at 10:47 am
Sorry, what am I supposed to have said about the news cycle?
And I agree the quality of journalism has dropped.
‘So don’t worry at all that Shorten doesn’t arc up.’
Not so much worried about this, but I do wish that Labour figures in general would call out some of the more inane interviewing techniques employed by some journalists, particularly those on the ABC like Sabra Lane.
A bit of controlled aggression would go a long way to counter the LNP memes that are constantly being promulgated, directly and indirectly through these interviews.
Robert Reich: The White House Mess Exposes Donald Trump’s Long Con
Trump is the most inept, disorganized, sloppy, incompetent president in recent memory, whose White House is nearly dysfunctional.
He allowed Michael Flynn to hang on until the last minute. In any halfway competent administration Flynn would have been gone the moment it became clear he lied to the vice president about his contacts with Russia.
Sean Spicer is a joke, literally
The Muslim travel ban was totally bungled
Meanwhile, Trump’s White House has sprung more leaks than any in memory
Chief of Staff Reince Priebus seems to have no idea what’s going on
Infighting is wild. Rumors are swirling that Kellyanne Conway wants Priebus’ job, that Stephen Miller is eyeing Spicer’s job, that no one trusts anyone else.
The New York Times reports “chaotic and anxious days inside the White House’s National Security Council
Trump himself is remarkably sloppy with sensitive national security information
The U.S. intelligence community is so convinced that Trump and his administration have been compromised by Russia that they’re no longer giving the White House all of their most sensitive information, lest it end up in Putin’s hands.
http://www.alternet.org/right-wing/robert-reich-white-house-mess-exposes-donald-trumps-long-con
This is the way I will react if I use a term roughly covered by the anti-discrimination and freedom of speech legislative sentiments, and someone challenges me on it.
“Oops! Sorry about that. Slip of the pen! Cheers”
Anyone is free to test me on it anytime I do so. Saves a lot of subsequent too-ing and fro-ing.
And if any one is interested there is plenty of subject matter on the www condemning the use of mental illness terms as figures of speech. The reason of course is that it stigmatises sufferers and their families. Just imagine what it would be like if the habit became widespread.
Main reasons journalism hasn’t flourished here is the lack of diversity of outlets and tiny pool of individual journalists.
In 70s & 80s when my hubby first started working for Limited News his particular paper had 9 full time journalists of various grades. When he became editor he had only 2 people under him in the late 80s (so a staff of 3). Now that particular paper has one person who is both editor and journalist. This means all the stories and opinion comes from one source/perspective only.
Luckily hubby moved onto ‘greener pastures’ in later 80s and only does one column a week for the print media nowadays.
But this is true for just about all media in this country.
Plus, instead of experts (investigative or topic driven) we now have ‘generalists’ who summarise and opine rather than investigate. Even those who were formerly ‘investigative’ have basically become summarisers and opiners . And the rest of the ‘talent’ are generally pretty young boys and girls who have learned to use emotive language rather than recognise fact.
Yes Guytaur, it probably ties in with the tradition of philanthropy in the States as well.
We do have the Saturday Paper, which does a fine job on (probably) a limited budget, but how many support it buy subscribing?
I’m old enough to remember the hope and promise that came with the original Australian newspaper under editor Adrian Deamer.
Didn’t take long for that hope to be dashed.
Adrian
The Saturday Paper. Crikey. Even Independent Australia even though not in same quality camp but does have some gems on its site.
The only problem I have with non mainstream media is credibility. The former I may not agree with all the time but their credibility remains. Sometimes IA can seem to overstep the mark.
Of course at other times its because they are ahead of the pack in some of the gems they have posted. So you have to treat each article on its merits.
To me however IA has at least the same credibility as the Murdoch press.
Looks like KellyAnne is the next domino
Unnamedinsider: Donald Trump has unfollowed @KellyannePolls pic.twitter.com/elKmMS1t9h
RoguePOTUSStaff: POTUS is annoyed with Kellyanne. Says she keeps “messing up.” Upset that her spin clashes with the now official spin created by Pence.
The media’s future is probably specialist bloggers – people who know their onions, can write clearly and who don’t need much in the way of equipment and infrastructure.
…once upon a time, access to the Halls of Power did provide valuable insights.
Now, we can listen to QT, watch the interviews and the pressers, etc whenever we want.
If anything, closeness to the subject has made the press captive to the meme du jour.
Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull might be charming in person, but that is irrelevant to the people their policies impact on.
zoomster
Yes and podcasts which include both audio and video.
Smart tv networks will use the freelance model to pay such people to provide content. Multinationals paying directly for staff reporters will only be so they can control the message. That will only continue as long as they think they are getting value for money.
The losses of Newscorpse are starting to fail them as we saw with the election results in Western Sydney as media consumers find other sources to follow.
Guytaur
Don’t trust either of those Twitter handles. Especially Rogue POTUS. Me thinks it has ties to the nutjob Bannon
zoomster
I should add thats why I think news is going to be gathered by journalists forming cooperatives. At some point just being in the union won’t be enough to bargain. To do it properly a cooperative company will see proper pay in the freelance model and thats where I see the supply demand meeting its balance.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/pm-refines-labor-attack-over-blackouts-20170214-gucr92.html
Victoria
I don’t trust those sources. The latter has been suggested to be Bannon himself.
However rumours about Flynn became fact. So worth noting the rumour.
zoomster @ #163 Wednesday, February 15, 2017 at 11:31 am
I tend to think your are right.
The problem I see with that is most people will access only what interests them and hence miss what is going on in other areas. Also with a large number of bloggers the reader needs to make their own determination on the credibility of the blogger.
This is the great value that a broad media source like a newspaper brings.
thehill: Dan Rather on Flynn: “Watergate is the biggest political scandal of my lifetime, until maybe now” hill.cm/qjWXmL1 pic.twitter.com/r9mgoeXl8s
http://thehill.com/homenews/news/319585-dan-rather-on-flynn-damn-the-lies
Lizzie – Kenny really is a disgrace. He seems incredibly happy that Malcolm might spout bullshit and get away with it. How the Herald can call itself a decent newspaper with him as political editor is beyond me.
On speed of news permeating the ‘great unwashed’ and the MSN, Facebook, Twitter and social media generally I think the ‘Smart’ phone is actually the thing that has made the difference rather than the ‘wrapper’ .
CT
Yes. The home market is now being fought over by Google Amazon and Apple. At the moment Amazon is in front with Alexa. Its the AI in the smart home combined with content delivery strategy.
So Television will eventually become an interactive information booth that only does video when needed. So that one way screen will disappear and if hologram projectors take off even the screen itself will go. In the meantime the painting on the wall turning into your movie and television shows screen is very close to being reality.
World banks are reluctant to fund new coal fired power stations.There are numerous articles on the net about it.
Expect some ‘fun’ out of this as Palmer lashes out –
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-15/clive-palmer-testifies-court-brisbane-queensland-nickel/8271948
Pence kept in the dark by Trump over Flynn concerns — until he read about it in the paper
The Trump administration kept Vice President Mike Pence in the dark about the Justice Department’s concerns regarding former national security advisor Mike Flynn for a full 15 days after the president was made aware of such concerns
Pence wasn’t informed about the Justice Department’s concerns regarding Flynn until last Thursday, Feb. 9—the same day the heavily-sourced reports regarding the contents of Flynn’s phone call with Kislyak were published.
According to Washington Post reporter Ashley Parker, Pence found out through the Washington Post that he’d been misled by the former national security advisor.
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/02/pence-kept-in-the-dark-by-trump-over-flynn-concerns-until-he-read-about-it-in-the-paper/
The MSM media has its critics and justifiably so in many cases, but sometimes we need to look beyond our particular interest, in this case politics, to see the good work they do.
Fairfax has led the charge against the banks over dodgy finance and insurance practises and more recently again worker exploitation. Dominos being the crooks exposed this week.
Even The Australian did some good work in the past, notably the Queensland floods cover up.
Somehow I can’t see bloggers and freelancers filling that void as the MSM shrinks.
Antonbruckner11
Kenny also gives the impression that Truffles turning his back on everything he supposedly stood for is also AOK>
‘So Television will eventually become an interactive information booth that only does video when needed. So that one way screen will disappear and if hologram projectors take off even the screen itself will go. In the meantime the painting on the wall turning into your movie and television shows screen is very close to being reality.’
Whatever technological marvels may eventuate, the issue has always been, and will always be, content.
That, and the ability to only receive content that fits with your existing opinions, prejudices, and preconceptions.
The 3D hologram thing
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-24/star-wars-style-holograms-one-step-closer-to-reality/8207448
‘Fairfax has led the charge against the banks over dodgy finance and insurance practises and more recently again worker exploitation. Dominos being the crooks exposed this week.’
Yes, Fairfax has done some good work in the business area, particularly in exposing dodgy employers. Their political coverage is more problematic, and their web site is click bait central.
And no everybody at Fairfax is in the Turnbull cheer squad.
Economics writers Peter Martin and Ross Gittins regularly have a crack.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-have-our-ministers-got-it-in-for-the-unemployed-20170214-gucfw7.html
Adrian
The issue has always been and will always be who is the gatekeeper of content.
If you do a search using AI what trusted sources to tell you news even that you don’t like will exist is the question. Google and Facebook have already run into these issues in a small way.
Apple in China has run into it in a big way not delivering apps and content due to Chinese government censorship. That includes gaming apps.
This is why we need a bill of rights. One a government cannot easily override. In that the US has it right and we have it wrong. I hate the 2nd amendment but I think it we can agree that some things can and should be immutable in a constitution and damned hard to change.
Poroti – Those “browned-off cosmopolitans” kept the libs in office at the last election. They’re the ones who wouldn’t have voted for Tony and were stupid enough to vote for Malcolm. We shall see.
Rossmcg – You are entirely correct. Fairfax has some excellent reporters. But I’m afraid I won’t have a cent of my money used to put food on Kenny’s table. So they’re collateral damage.
Antonbruckner11
I think the MSM (in this case Kenny) imagine that their role is only to analyse whether actions will be politically successful or not. Sometimes they become more critical in the policy sense, but overall I find it annoying, because Libs can be ‘politically successful’ (ref: carbon tax) and still detrimental to the nation.
My memory says we used to read more policy discussion in Fairfax, but in those days there was a greater variety in the journos employed. Or am I wrong?
Lizzie and Anton
Mark Kenny needs to do his job. The Coalition will only win this alt-fact scare campaign re the energy network with the complicity of the press.
Lizzie – totally right. Kenny is totally allergic to policy issues. He just transcribes whatever crap Turnbull comes up with (never Labor) and re-hashes it.
There is a lot of Murphyroo shooting on the Guardian this morning – and rightly so.
I see no value in this assessment. An idea that’s fundamentally Unconstitutional and basically fascist can never be anything other than “bungled”.
Let’s not pretend that banning a religion is a legitimate idea, and that the only problem was with how that idea was implemented. The problem is with the core idea, not the way Trump handled it.
Lizzie
Indeed there used to be more diversity in the Fairfax Canberra coverage, when the SMH and Herald had separate staffs there.
It seems to be that it is the remit of most reporters now to focus on the “he said, she said” of the day and largely ignore policy.
Martin, Gittins and a few others look at the bigger picture.
As for putting bread on Kenny’s table, well I’ll admit to being a subscriber. If you live in WA being able to read the SMH and Age is important, as strange as that may seem.
As an example, on the front page of The West Australian today is an “exclusive” breathlessly informing us that Turnbull has not visited WA for six months.
Wow.
Antonbruckner11
I can’t see what she has written.
Rossmcg
Having read The Age for over 50 years, I stuck with them and subscribe. That gives me the headlines, but now I also read the Guardian and many links from social media.
‘ Many were never Coalition voters anyway.’
Yeah, because the Coalition is travelling so well it can afford to lose a few votes here and there…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/15/shorten-fails-to-specify-cost-of-labors-renewables-policy-when-asked-four-times#comment-93214812
Lizzie
I think that Turnbull and Morrison really want to get the company tax cuts through, welfare cuts are nice, but goal #1 is the tax cuts.
Even if they achieve nothing else they will be able to hold their heads up among their (corporate) peers at the ‘club’ and say ‘I cut the taxes ‘.
This is critical for how they see themselves in their life after politics.
The Guardian seems to be indicating that the Guardian Essential Poll will operate on a more conventional weekly basis than the existing Essential Poll with its rolling two week averages. ( https://www.theguardian.com/guardian-australia-press-office/2017/feb/14/guardian-australia-is-partnering-with-essential-to-publish-the-guardian-essential-report-each-week ) Anyone know anything definite about that?
I’ve assumed for a while that Kenny – although not being an ideologue – is certainly on Turnbull’s “high grade drip” with the requisite quid pro quo that this involves.
I was somewhat surprised that he penned the “exclusive” yesterday about Turnbull lying for months about the cause of the SA blackouts, but in hindsight this was based on FOI material rather than any initiative of Kenny – the story was likely given to him internally as a senior writer. Certainly he seems to have avoided any meaninful follow-up and has quickly reverted to massaging and tacitly supporting Turnbull’s chosen narrative.
A guardian commenter notes that Shorten should have said to Lane that Labor’s climate change policy will be cheaper than extinction. A bargain, in other words.