Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Bill Shorten’s personal ratings take a hit in Essential’s latest poll, while Galaxy charts One Nation’s ongoing progress in Queensland.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average moves a point back to the Coalition for the second week in a row, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 35%, with the Coalition steady on 36%, One Nation steady on 10% and the Greens up a point to 9%. The monthly leaders ratings find Bill Shorten taking a big hit, down seven points on approval to 30% and up three on disapproval to 47%, and Malcolm Turnbull a smaller one, down three on approval to 34% and up one on disapproval to 49%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 39-28 last month to 39-25.

The survey also asked respondents if they would be likely to vote for Cory Bernardi’s Conservative Party, to which 14% said yes – which, as is always the case when questions like this are asked, is well above the party’s plausible vote share. Sixty-two per cent say they would be unlikely to, which is on the high side as these things go. The poll also has 17% saying Bernardi’s defection is good for the Liberal Party, 26% bad, 29% neither, and 28% don’t know. As of next week, the Essential Research poll will be published in conjunction with The Guardian.

We’ve also had federal voting intention results from the weekend’s Queensland poll by Galaxy for the Courier-Mail, which has One Nation on 18% (up six since November), the Coalition on 35% (down four), Labor on 29% (down one) and the Greens on 8% (steady), with the Coalition down a point on two-party preferred to lead 51-49. The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 867.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,956 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. This is a brilliant deconstruction of how Kellyanne Conway does her job of covering Emperor Trump’s naked butt (plus I think it applies to any other master spinner):

    Kellyanne Conway has a supernatural ability to derail any interview that paints Donald Trump in a negative light. How does she do it?
    Kellyanne Conway’s interview tricks, explained

    https://youtu.be/C-7fzHy3aG0

  5. Normally Turnbull should have left the attack on Shorten to someone else, but as commented on at the time, the event itself was an indication of Turnbull’s weakness.
    He had to make the attack to impress his own backbench. He couldn’t leave it to someone else.

  8. C@t

    Oops sorry I said the original FISA warrant was sought in July. It was actually June…………

    FBI sought, and was granted, a FISA court warrant in October, giving counter-intelligence permission to examine the activities of ‘U.S. persons’ in Donald Trump’s campaign with ties to Russia.

    Contrary to earlier reporting in the New York Times, which cited FBI sources as saying that the agency did not believe that the private server in Donald Trump’s Trump Tower which was connected to a Russian bank had any nefarious purpose, the FBI’s counter-intelligence arm, sources say, re-drew an earlier FISA court request around possible financial and banking offenses related to the server. The first request, which, sources say, named Trump, was denied back in June, but the second was drawn more narrowly and was granted in October after evidence was presented of a server, possibly related to the Trump campaign, and its alleged links to two banks; SVB Bank and Russia’s Alfa Bank.

  9. Not even four weeks in. Imagine how 4 years is going to feel.

    CNN Politics
    6 mins ·
    President Donald J. Trump hosts world leaders. Michael Flynn has resigned. There will be high-stakes cabinet votes and more executive actions. We’re covering Trump’s fourth week in office.

  10. Jenauthor – I wondered if Morrison was waving the coal around in Parliament as a standard behind which the right-wing nuts could rally.

  11. c@tmomma @ #74 Wednesday, February 15, 2017 at 9:18 am

    Zoomster,
    There is a lag between events and their impact on polling of about three weeks.
    This is because the non-politically engaged need time to (1) hear about the event; (2) discuss it; and then (3) internalise a reaction.
    I respectfully disagree. As with most events of importance these days, people are hearing about things at light speed due to social media and so are reacting much more quickly than they used to. In fact, they are reacting instantaneously to their friends ON social media.

    Zoomster is correct. It is widely acknowledged that there is a lag and I think there is plenty of evidence for it.
    It would be good if William and / or Kevin could comment.

  12. There have been many polls over the past few years that showed Australians supporting tax increases if the extra revenue was used to provide better health & education and government services (Centrelink comes to mind among many others), so maybe Scott & Matthias have finally caught up with the polls.

  14. BreakfastNews: .@JakeSturmer says Airservices Australia staff realised job cuts were “sheer lunacy” during a major thunderstorm in Melbourne in December pic.twitter.com/LG8R1j1vhW

    This will resonate with voters.
    All so multinationals and banks can get their tax breaks.

  15. Jenauthor:

    I think it was Dragonista at the weekend who wrote that in their own ways Dutton and Morrison are auditioning for the leadership.

  17. Mr Shorten’s response to Turnbull’s attack in this presser is on the money.

    Highlight the tax cuts to banks at cost of families pensioners etc.

  19. SA Power Blackout:

    The Australia Institute have published some e-mails they got from an FOI request (page 4 onwards of the link).

    You’ll notice that the APS staff involved are identifiable in the address blocks of the e-mails while some other addressees have been blacked out under s.22 of the FOI Act.

    You don’t need to be Sherlock to work out the blacked out addressees are those of staff in the Prime Ministers Office and the Office of the Minister for the Environment.

    Someone has decided the ministerial office staff can ‘reasonably be regarded as irrelevant to the request’.

    http://www.tai.org.au/sites/defualt/files/Briefing%20note%20on%20SA%20blackout%20FOI%20-%20PMC.pdf

  20. Psyclaw,
    So now we can use any perjorative and discriminatory term, so long as we attach our own private meaning to it.

    No. However, if there is an alternative definition, and the always intended one, which is pointed out to you after you have gone off half-cocked in the wrong direction about it, then it is not making things up afterwards, it is explaining something to you that you have obviously failed to grasp.

    And if anyone attaches the orthodox meaning to it, then they are just being supersensitive, or a snark, or a stalker.

    No. If they attach the incorrect meaning to it then they need to be put right. Especially if they have attached snark to their incorrect characterisation. Especially when it looks for all the world as though they have trawled through my comments looking for some sort of pathetic gotcha!

    So now we can use figures of speech using all the well known LGBQTI perjorative words (like faggot), all the well known perjorative racist words (like the N….. word), all the well known anti-feminine cliches about centred on the word month, all the well known disability words (such as retard) ….. pretty well anything we want, so long as we attach our own private meaning to them.

    False Equivalency. Considering there are two completely divergent meanings for the word I used, but quite specific allusions for the examples you have attempted to conflate it with.

    Any reasonable person would understand that.

    And we can do this whenever we want because so many words do have an alternative, less well used meaning, although rarely used for reasons of social sensitivity, and social mores. Of course I can go buy a car and request a n…… coloured one. And everyone will accept that I’m just using that word in its alternative meaning as a particular colour. No! Wait on! ………

    Again we see you falling back on the snark. What a comedic genius you are (you impressed guytaur 😉 )! Now again, for your information, such as it seems to be interminably eluding you, I meant what I said, for the reasons I said it, meaning to ascribe the definition I have described because that’s the one I was referring to!

    Still, if you want to continue to try and make some silly Concern Troll Mental Health point with it, go hard! You’ll still be 100% wrong.

    As I said earlier, “I’m not guilty, your honour, never am”

    You don’t do condescension very well. If you did you wouldn’t have written that as you would have known that I have often admitted when I was wrong which I have then corrected when my mistake was pointed out to me. However, I will just observe that that sort of technique is characteristic of weak prosecutors. 🙂

  22. Jen author

    If Turnbull has been trashing Morrison over NDIS tactic I suspect this is to head Morrison off because he’s making leadership moves.

    Or that he’s just chucking another one under the bus like he did Frydenberg i.e. they’re all expendable to Turnbull.

  24. psyclaw @ #94 Wednesday, February 15, 2017 at 9:29 am

    —
    And on another matter not unrelated to the above, FKelly just did a fantastic interview with Carlos Santana. I had no idea he was so well spoken , and an extremely philosophical man.
    —

    I will stay out of the argument with C@t but I did want to comment on the Santana interview with Fran Kelly.
    It was every bit as good as Psyclaw said and I too was surprised in a number of ways.
    I had forgotten that he had been around so long and indeed went back to the ’60’s when he and his band appeared at Woodstock.
    He made no bones about his feelings about Trump and clearly loathes Trump and all he stands for.
    Listen and enjoy.

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/carlos-santana-returns-to-australia/8271480

  25. Sky news takaway from presser

    SkyNewsAust: .@BillShortenMP says if the government doesn’t budge on the corporate tax cut they’ll be voted out of office. More: bit.ly/2l5KOSd pic.twitter.com/2NCP1jcyRwhttps://twitter.com/skynewsaust/status/831639415915061248

  26. Bemused,
    Zoomster is correct. It is widely acknowledged that there is a lag and I think there is plenty of evidence for it.

    Maybe so, however, was that evidence collected since the explosion of social media?

  27. Thanks for the info people. That should do them in then, shouldn’t it? Doesn’t matter who has unleashed their inner mongrel if their entire policy agenda is in smoking ruins on the floor of the Senate

  29. c@tmomma @ #126 Wednesday, February 15, 2017 at 10:10 am

    Bemused,
    Zoomster is correct. It is widely acknowledged that there is a lag and I think there is plenty of evidence for it.
    Maybe so, however, was that evidence collected since the explosion of social media?

    Not everyone is into politics on social media and those that are probably have strong opinions already.
    It takes a while to permeate through the wider community and to be processed from knowledge to an attitude shift.

  31. C@

    It’s not to do with speed of response, it’s to do with firming of opinion.

    People might have an instant response to an event, but it won’t necessarily feed through to a fixed opinion until they’ve had time to discuss it with other people and see how things pan out.

    For example, someone might have reacted negatively to Turnbull’s conversation with Trump, because they feared that Trump would do something to damage Australia’s interests, or that Americans would reflexively support Trump. When they saw that there was no (apparent) downside, they might then decide that Turnbull had come across as a strong leader.

    We do see this kind of process working even in social media – an initial response is replaced by a more considered one, once events have played out.

  32. Good point:

    George Takei ‏@GeorgeTakei 7h7 hours ago

    Not convinced we have a Russia problem? Flynn is THIRD Trump advisor to resign because of ties with Russia. Manafort, Page did before him.

  33. Thank you Bemused and zoomster for your explanations. I’ve taken them on board.

    Therefore, I guess we’ll find out in the subsequent Essentials what effect the Turnbull bilious attack on Bill has had.

  34. Reinvertibration! now there’s a word the language needs.
    I trust you are submitting it to Macquarie Dictionary?

    Wonderful word.

    But who to apply it to?

    The re bit implies a vertebra lost at some point, so obviously not applicable to the Point Piper Patrician.

  35. I think the impact of events on polling is a bit more complex than people are saying.

    I’m sure a really big, visceral thing can influence polling pretty well straight away. Something like a terrorist bombing for example. Also, the prominence of an unusual event in the media.

    Normally, however, other more “normal” things seem to filter through as they get talked about over the BBQ or elsewhere, reinforced by following events. That’s precisely why Bill Shorten keeps plugging away with slight variations on his theme – he understands the importance in the longer term of keeping issues alive. The coalition seem addicted to “sugar-hit” events, perhaps because they are so beset by their more general malaise.

  39. I also tend to think that social media reinforces tribal views, rather than changing people’s thinking.

    We tend to purge our social media platforms of people who disagree with us. Thus what we see/read tends to be opinions which match our own. It’s then very easy to fall into the trap of believing that everyone is reacting the same way we are.

    It’s also very easy to fall into the trap of ‘all of my friends think this way, therefore they must be right”.

    I don’t believe social media is as effective (presently; it will be) as people think.

    When I run campaigns, our best tweet reaches around a thousand people directly. Retweets might make this several thousand (not everyone you reach retweets). facebook provides you with direct figures; our best facebook post reached 11,000 people.

    One radio interview, on the other hand, reaches tens of thousands in one hit; a good TV grab can be played across regional Victoria and reach millions.

    Radio and TV still beat social media hands down in terms of audience, and it reaches people who don’t engage at all with social media.

  41. “Distorting reality”: Politicians, mental health experts say they’re worried about Donald Trump

    Al Franken was the first to question Trump’s mental health. Now, professionals are speaking out

    On Monday, the New York Times published a letter signed by 37 psychiatrists, psychologists and social workers, in which they expressed grave concern over Trump’s ability to make rational judgments. The letter cited, and stood with, columnist Charles Blow’s article last week, which criticized Trump for undermining the judiciary checks of power in U.S. government.

    http://www.salon.com/2017/02/14/distorting-reality-politicians-mental-health-experts-say-theyre-worried-about-donald-trump/

  42. …but I hope Malcolm decides it was his attacks on Shorten which worked, and keeps them coming.

    Remember, people reacted the same way to Keating’s put downs of Howard – but ultimately, he turned off more voters than he attracted .

  43. Zoomster

    I concur when it comes to social media. We usually seek out confirmation bias. Why I made a point of following right wing conservatives with respect to the Trump imbroglio.
    I had my bias and wanted to get the perspective of those who are republicans and have a keen dislike of Clinton and the Democrats in general.

  44. ‘Morning Joe’ Slams Trump Over Flynn Resignation: The Intel Community Has Struck Back

    “We have been warning this president and Gen. Flynn on the air for months that [if] you go after the intel community, the intel community will go after you,” Scarborough added, after recalling her hunch. “They are the last people you want to go after.”

    http://www.alternet.org/investigations/morning-joe-credits-patriot-sally-yates-exposing-former-trump-adviser-michael-flynn

  46. zoomster

    It depends on the social media. Facebook fits your description to a tee. Twitter not so much. Twitter excels most at being like a news ticker. The selection only comes as to who comments on the breaking news.

    Other social media tends to fall in between the two models.
    I notice this difference because on twitter the fake news has not gained the same traction it did on Facebook.

    This is notable with Donald Trump tweets and comments. Same was true of Obama ones. Both sides of politics follows the breaking news.
    The partisan slant fake news is propogated by the Facebook algorithm.
    The more you like something the more you get the same type of stories in your newsfeed.

    So for those that do not trust media pay little attention to politics most who are on FB not Twitter (Just more people on FB) that means the least politically engaged are the last to change and thus the lagging effect still happens. In fact this is why polling can be wrong because fake news followers are also the ones most likely not to do surveys.

  49. As Zoom and others have said, don’t get too hung up on this Essential.

    If in a month’s time Essential and Newspoll have shown a consistent swing back to the Libs we can assume with some (but not too much) confidence that Angry Mal worked for him.

    But we’re a looong way from that yet. Essential still shows Turnbull took another hit on his net sats to be his worse ever. Shorten took a bigger hit, but netsats for LOTOs don’t matter near as much as for PMs. So long as Turnbull keeps trending down his fate is sealed. Going the biff didn’t help his popularity (even if it might have had a larger short term hit on Bill’s), and nothing in his policy bag is going to help him either.

    A cornered dog might get a bite on you, but he’s still gonna get chained up and euthanased.

    Shorten’s strategy won’t change. He certainly won’t be going toe to toe with Turnbull in the sewer. A few well placed jabs to keep him angry and stupid and lashing out, but mostly just stand back and watch him destroy himself. It will work just as well on Turnbull as it did with Abbott.

    With each passing day the utter pointlessness of Malcolm Turnbull PM beyond Malcolm Turnbull getting his jollies at being PM sinks in deeper and deeper. Turnbull can try and deflect with personal attacks on Shorten as much as he likes. The reality of his crumbling government won’t be hidden. The zombie cuts that these idiots have been trying on since 2014 look like they might actually be finally dead. Parading a lump of coal around QT the day before a record heatwave. Being unable to get their Child Care package and other cuts through after the insanity of trying to use the disabled as hostages. The ongoing clusterfuck of Centrelink. The ideological obsession with Tax cuts for big businesses two terms from now whilst bashing everyone outside of the 1% today. Lying and being caught out lying about renewables. All of these things and so many more simply overwhelm the bullshit. Real people experience these things in their real lives and feel the incongruence between the shit Turnbull and co are crapping on about and what’s happening to them.

    So don’t worry at all that Shorten doesn’t arc up. It would be completely counter productive. All he has to do is seem like he has half a clue and not be so thin skinned as to be dragged into Turnbull’s desperation. Stay out of the Libs way as far as possible and they have to collapse under the weight of their own incompetence and division.

  50. ‘These theories also go a long way to explaining why the quality of journalism has dropped. Where is your evidence supporting otherwise?’

    True in general, but I don’t think that the quality of journalism in Australia has been particularly high, apart from what in retrospect, seemed like a golden age in the 70’s to 90’s?
    We lack the traditions of investigative journalism evident in the UK and US, and most of our journos or media owners show no interest in acquiring them.

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