BludgerTrack state breakdowns: December 2016

A detailed view of the federal polling picture at state level, as the Coalition sags and One Nation soars in three states.

No sign of those Newspoll state polls that I hoped might enliven the silly season, and it’s still another week until Essential Research returns. So for your edification, I offer the following state-by-state accounting of where the federal polling picture stands at state level (except Tasmania, for which there has been literally no data at all since the election). This is based on 35 polls in all: 25 from Essential, with unpublished state breakdowns; eight from Newspoll, including the quarterly breakdowns); one from Ipsos; and a Queensland-only result from Galaxy. Note that “Q3” below refers to the third quarter result for 2016, i.e. three months ago.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,569 comments on “BludgerTrack state breakdowns: December 2016”

Comments Page 70 of 72
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  1. I have a question.

    It seems likely that at the next general election, the LNP will be defeated. It will then be possible that our present prime minister will resign, causing a by-election.

    My question is this:

    How is this resignation from parliament accomplished? Does the present prime minister (or, indeed, any other MP wishing to resign) send his/her letter to the GG, or does he/she send it to the party, who then informs the GG?

    Or perhaps the resignation letter is sent to some other official?

    At some point the AEC must organise a by-election for the seat of the resigning MP, and they need certainty, so it is important that the correct protocol is followed.

  2. But the reality is Trump is soon to be president.

    That’s the reality Americans and the rest of us have to live with. I don’t know that he’ll be much more than a figurehead, tweeting, dogwhistling and generally being obnoxious. Trump providing the vaudville, while Mike Pence, the ‘West Wing’ staffers / Hollow Men and a Republican-controlled Congress go about implementing the billionaires’ agenda, which will hurt the demographic who voted for Trump more than most, while throwing a bit of red meat to the ‘deplorables’. Hopefully the Hollow Men can keep Trump from shirtfronting anyone too important or accidentally starting a war.

  8. Fe Don @7:28PM – I believe a resigning member or Senator writes a letter to the Speaker or the President of the Senate, who take it from there. The executive Government seems to have final say on the date of any by election. As a separate exercise, it would be expected that a resigning member or Senator discuss the resignation with their party leader first, although I believe that Sephen Conroy took his leader Bill Shorten by surprise.

  11. Our very own Chris Pine Member for fixin’ stuff.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_My_Luck_(2006_film)#Cast
    I am thrilled to see our very own boy from the bush SA style is makin’ it big in the entertainment centre of the universe Adelaide Hollywood.

    Just a week ago I had not heard of our boy’s exploits. He’s meetin’ wimmin, takin’ his chances and showin’ what he’s made of.

    Pride is the overwhelming feeling engulfing me as I now return to watch this blockbuster movie. He (Chris baby) stars ✳ ✳ with the fascinating Lindsay Lohan in this story of young love and redemption coupled with a delicate strain of stupidity.

    Colton as a fellow shitkicker of many years experience watch this space as my spelling and grammar are revealed as completely primary school B grade. Be of good heart, I like your stuff and that (that “and that” will get em).

    I have run out of BS temorarily and need to have my Saturday night shower and recharge. I will return to the fray a little later after searching yet again for that elusive Koala stamp. :diamond smilie:

  14. Good question player one. If you use a total crapness rating where Kylie would get a rating of say 7, some of Oasis later stuff was a bit crap so say a 5, even the Beatles wrote some crap (what was revolution number 9 about?) so theyn woud get a total crapness rating of 3, but Donald hasn’t realy writen anything crap so his toral crapness rating would be 2. So you see Donald is a better songwriter than Oasis and even the Beatles.

  15. And if you dont believe that I could google “Oasis crap” and post some links to people writing stuff about how crap Oasis were.

  19. GG,
    What’s to unlike about Noel Gallagher?
    Ask Roger Miller, he has a theory about how Trump is a better songwriter! 😀

  22. Trump and his henchmen are just being petty so-and-sos with their purges.
    (from the article posted by Lizzie: http://www.theage.com.au/world/youre-fired-trump-dumps-top-officials-in-massive-purge-ahead-of-inauguration-20170115-gtrogu.html).

    For Major-General Errol Schwartz the notice was especially harsh. He has been responsible for security at inauguration day festivities since 2008 and will be forced to step down just as the 45th president’s are getting under way.

    Preparing to narrate Mr Trump’s parade down Pennsylvania Avenue will be Steve Ray, a local announcer and outspoken Trump supporter. He will replace Charlie Brotman, 89, the announcer at every inauguration since 1957 who said he got the “shock of his life” when he was sacked by Mr Trump’s aides.

    Even an offer by the Obamas to leave behind the South Lawn swing set they installed for their daughters for Mr Trump’s son Barron was rebuffed.

  24. Apropos the ridiculousness of Arthur Sinodinos becoming Health Minister, if only to get him and the portfolio away from Catherine King, how is it that Turnbull thinks it appropriate to give a complex portfolio to manage to someone who has such obvious difficulty with his memory? Will he be able to cope? Will he forget important information? 😉

  27. bemused @ #3462 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 8:12 pm

    briefly @ #3441 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 6:48 pm

    Bemused
    Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 6:26 pm
    dtt is a self-acknowledged troll

    I don’t believe she is.

    No BS just now.
    I scroll past lots of “stuff” that doesn’t interest me. I don’t use STFU although I have helped others set up their computers to use STFU.
    My take from your little post is that DTT is sincere although perhaps a little out of phase with ordinary thinking – whatever ordinary thinking is.
    Would you like to say a few words for my edification please.
    DTT has been the recipient of many harsh words. Exactly why this is so I know not.
    Help me here. Please. Why should support for his/her ? right to post a version of perception of various situations arouse what appears to be enmity towards both DTT and said supporter? :no smilies:

  29. I hope some clever person puts Trump’ Inaugural speech to the sound track of “Dark Side of the Moon”.

    If you replay his inaugural speech backwards it’ll make more sense.

  32. Every president since Nixon has stayed within fairly normal parameters of behavoir, (Bill strayed a bit and Dubya was a bit gaga) but Donald is going to be so far outside the bounderies that trying to predict anything about the next president is futile, other than it is going to be a bumpy ride.

  33. KayJay,
    Why should support for his/her ? right to post a version of perception of various situations arouse what appears to be enmity towards both DTT and said supporter?

    Because she resorts to abuse and attempted humiliation if you dare to question her or provide evidence to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that she is spouting malarkey.

    She does not take correction graciously but doubles down on her pov in a blatant attempt to intimidate you into silence.

    And, strangely and weirdly like Trump, she calls the truth ‘rubbish’ and expects people to take her word as gospel.

    Good enough reasons for you?

  34. @ Bemused 5:35pm

    with a son that does the same thing.

    The problem that worries me with stirring up the grammar police, who can be pretty ruthless, is that once the finger pointing starts, it can be sometimes difficult to stop. (smiley face)

  35. kayjay @ #3477 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 8:30 pm

    bemused @ #3462 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 8:12 pm

    briefly @ #3441 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 6:48 pm

    Bemused
    Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 6:26 pm
    dtt is a self-acknowledged troll

    I don’t believe she is.

    No BS just now.
    I scroll past lots of “stuff” that doesn’t interest me. I don’t use STFU although I have helped others set up their computers to use STFU.
    My take from your little post is that DTT is sincere although perhaps a little out of phase with ordinary thinking – whatever ordinary thinking is.
    Would you like to say a few words for my edification please.
    DTT has been the recipient of many harsh words. Exactly why this is so I know not.
    Help me here. Please. Why should support for his/her ? right to post a version of perception of various situations arouse what appears to be enmity towards both DTT and said supporter? :no smilies:

    I have no-one on STFU, I do not counsel its use, I have never argued that anyone be banned. My approach is that if a topic doesn’t interest me I just stay out of it and scroll.

    I believe DTT is sincere but mis-guided.

  36. greensborough growler @ #3478 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 8:32 pm

    KJ,
    She’s full of shit!
    Doesn’t mean she should be banned.

    Yeah! We’re all full of shit. The question usually is “how high are you?”
    Religious people get to say all manner of what (to me) is insane stuff about imaginary people.
    We have, from time to time, members of the IPA gracing our wonderful ABC TV . My opinion generally is that these gentle folk are full of shit also.
    Retires to watch Lindsay Lohan again, mumbling under his breath, “kcuf if I know.”
    Demmit, why didn’t I turn left at Albuquerque?

  38. GG,
    She’s full of shit!
    Doesn’t mean she should be banned.

    I agree with this 100%. Let her hoist herself on her own petard.

  40. itzadream @ #3484 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 8:45 pm

    @ Bemused 5:35pm
    with a son that does the same thing.
    The problem that worries me with stirring up the grammar police, who can be pretty ruthless, is that once the finger pointing starts, it can be sometimes difficult to stop. (smiley face)

    Hahaha… yes, well spotted. I was wondering who would pull me up for that howler.
    I know I make an occasional error, but on re-reading I usually recognise it and I do try to get things right.
    One thing I said to Colton was WTTE that writing is a good way of improving your writing. In other words, practice. So I do try to get it right to prevent myself from lapsing into bad habits and to, hopefully, improve. So corrections always welcome. 🙂

  46. Thanks to all those who have given me kind words of support about my poor grammar and spelling.
    I was probably a bit harsh in my reply to Bemused.
    I know his heart is in the right place.
    It is a problem that I know I have and I do try to be grammatically correct.
    The funny thing is I notice the same mistakes I make in my kids writing at times and am quick to pull them up about it.
    Perhaps I need to check and check again before I post a comment.

    Now, given all the free advice I’ve been given today would any PB parents out there know the correct way to answer the question my 9 year old daughter asked me this afternoon?
    “Dad, what’s an abortion?”
    I would of normally taken the easy way out and told her to ask her mum but she is at work.
    🙂 🙂 🙂

  47. steve777 @ #3458 #3458 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 7:57 pm

    Fe Don @7:28PM – I believe a resigning member or Senator writes a letter to the Speaker or the President of the Senate, who take it from there. The executive Government seems to have final say on the date of any by election. As a separate exercise, it would be expected that a resigning member or Senator discuss the resignation with their party leader first, although I believe that Sephen Conroy took his leader Bill Shorten by surprise.

    Thanks Steve, much appreciated.

  49. Hi Guys! Hope all are well.
    D. Trump has brought back Ford to America. If he gets Apple back too, he’s doing exactly what people want – revitalising manufacturing, looking after citizens’ jobs and economic circumstances.
    Now, you can bet Bill Shorten is watching this carefully, as this is what he needs to do as well if he becomes PM. I note he has not criticised D. Trump for ages now. He knows the lay of the land as far as looking after the nation’s people, and same sex marriage and renewable are just not priorities. He has quietened down on them, and I think he is going to go full bore on a jobs’ policy.
    Also, if the exposé of our greedy politicians’ travel expenses reaches Labor, Tony Burke will have to go. In of the region of $250,000 for overseas trips with mistress (still married to another lady). Now all the pollies are in on this expense caper, Libs, Labor and Greens, but Tony Burke would appear the worst, in my opinion.
    Bill Shorten will have no hesitation in removing him if it becomes widely known.

    I voted Labor last time because Bill Shorten is the closest leader type to Tony Abbott, to my mind.

  50. bemused @ #3493 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 8:53 pm

    kayjay @ #3489 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 8:47 pm

    bemused
    #3485 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 8:45 pm
    OK. Thanks.

    I should add that her level of animosity has risen in response to what she has received from others, and I can’t say my hands are entirely clean.

    Thanks again. That’s the reverse of my inquiry. What seems like hatred to me am are is was were be being and been directed at DTT.
    Why.
    I know there is no real answer. We are just playing for various reasons on marvellous devices which enable us to interact with our fellows.
    I think I am giving myself another good talking to here. Wooden spoon next?
    Thanks to all for assisting to make my day a good one. Anybody/everybody is welcome to correct my grammar/spelling. I keep a tab open for spelling.
    A 1964 model movie on TV today with the wonderful Ronnie Barker. Sadly missed.
    Goodnight all. Found a diamond symbol. Anyone for Texas Holdem? ♢♢♢♢

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