BludgerTrack state breakdowns: December 2016

A detailed view of the federal polling picture at state level, as the Coalition sags and One Nation soars in three states.

No sign of those Newspoll state polls that I hoped might enliven the silly season, and it’s still another week until Essential Research returns. So for your edification, I offer the following state-by-state accounting of where the federal polling picture stands at state level (except Tasmania, for which there has been literally no data at all since the election). This is based on 35 polls in all: 25 from Essential, with unpublished state breakdowns; eight from Newspoll, including the quarterly breakdowns); one from Ipsos; and a Queensland-only result from Galaxy. Note that “Q3” below refers to the third quarter result for 2016, i.e. three months ago.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,569 comments on “BludgerTrack state breakdowns: December 2016”

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  2. daretotread @ #3389 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 5:13 pm

    No kiddiwinks.
    —

    Obvious nonsense written for an audience of ‘kiddiwinks’.
    A total abuse of accepted risk management standards.
    Risks, by definition, are not courses of action wilfully chosen.
    They are about potential unplanned events that ‘could’ happen and assessing the likelihood of them and the consequences if they occur.
    Also based on the assumption that a President or SoS is completely unconstrained in choosing actions whereas the reality is they will be surrounded by advisers who may see things differently.

  4. daretotread @ #3389 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 5:13 pm

    Well JUST talking Syria Trump has argued against US troops in Syria and less enthusiasm for NATO and a willingness to talk to Russia and Putin. Yes he has an erratic personality, but on this single issue ie Syria and Russia he has stated willingness to be more moderate. We can guess (very subjectively ) on his mental state but possibly this is not sufficient to completely negate public statements of his intentions. Based on public statements he would have to be less hawkish than Obama. We could give him a 3 but add one for insanity. Set him at 4.

    How can you give any credibility to Trumps statements when he has been shown to lie so frequently.
    That’s why this sort of analysis is such a nonsense Trump has absolutely no record in public office so there is absolutely zero data to assess how he might act in different situations.

  5. colton @ #3394 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 5:17 pm

    Bemused @ Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 4:58 pm
    Still playing the role of grammar cop I see.
    I use to care about my spelling and grammar when posting here. No longer.
    I’m sure most people can understand what i’m saying.
    I try my best, hopefully most people can overlook my lack of perfect grammar and focus on the content of my comments.
    I have mentioned here before that I know I am not the smartest, best educated person to post here. By a fairly long way. That is obvious.
    I have even been honest in admitting previously that it is sometimes a bit intimidating to post here knowing so many of the other comments are made by people who are obviously very knowledgeable and intelligent.
    Im just a humble blue collar shit-kicker. I will try my best to use correct spelling and grammar. I won’t always be successful.
    Luckily in the real world I live in my lack of perfect grammar has not stopped me from building my own successful landscaping business employing 21 people nor from owning 3 houses before the age of 32.
    Im not saying that to big note myself, just that I find some peoples nitpicking on blogs about spelling and grammar to be completely boring.
    In all the blog posts I have ever made here and elsewhere I have only ever had one person make an issue out of it. You.
    People can read my comments or scroll past.
    I don’t care.
    Cheers.

    I tried to do it with a bit of humour.
    It is one of my pet hates and I have struggled for years with a son that does the same thing.
    Writing is actually the best way of improving your ability to write. If you have a mind to.
    I will always read your comments for the content which is refreshingly different even if I don’t agree all the time.
    No offence meant, so please don’t take any.
    Cheers

  8. DTT

    Oh go away and stop being a negative doubter.

    I have done many risk assessments as a project manager. It is a routine part of the job. You are applying a technique you barely understand, using figures you have apparently pulled out of the air, and which seem to be based largely on personal prejudice and “post-truth” media articles. Naturally the outcome reinforces your own beliefs.

    You are not fooling anyone here.

  9. Barney in Saigon Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 5:33 pm

    daretotread @ #3389 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 5:13 pm

    “Well JUST talking Syria Trump has argued against US troops in Syria and less enthusiasm for NATO and a willingness to talk to Russia and Putin. Yes he has an erratic personality, but on this single issue ie Syria and Russia he has stated willingness to be more moderate. We can guess (very subjectively ) on his mental state but possibly this is not sufficient to completely negate public statements of his intentions. Based on public statements he would have to be less hawkish than Obama. We could give him a 3 but add one for insanity. Set him at 4. ”

    How can you give any credibility to Trumps statements when he has been shown to lie so frequently.
    That’s why this sort of analysis is such a nonsense Trump has absolutely no record in public office so there is absolutely zero data to assess how he might act in different situations.

    *********************************************

    He has not served 1 day in public office or 1 day in military service but in a few days he becomes the Commander In Chief of the US military as well as holding the highest office in the land as POTUS.

    He has been involved in over 3500+ lawsuits, from both sides …… is presently involved in 70+ lawsuits, that include fraud, allegedly up to 1.5 BILLION dollars in debt and according to many lawyers based up his business attachments is already in breach of the US Constitution from Day 1, has assembled a Cabinet of very dodgy members that have already created problems with wild and provocative statements against China …… and as yet unconfirmed, possibly being compromised by Russian assets…

    Let alone all his most questional ** personal qualities ** ……

    What a guy !!!!!! …….. God Bless America indeed – they sure are going to need it ….

  11. I notice the latest bullshix from the polies regarding Conmans many visits to Broome, all for family reasons, the excuse is the time polies have to spend away from home.
    My next door young family consists of a preg mother with an 18 month at feet. Husband works 5 weeks on (plus four days travelling)then four week off works on the WA gas fields. Apart from the phone calls there is no chance of weekends away.
    They both say “It’s part of the job.” Should be the same for polies.

  13. Poroti

    or at least expect them to be a bit rough around the edges.

    RA was sometimes ‘irritated’ with the briefs I wrote. Many people have bad things to say about him but instead of suppressing alternative advice he was into countering your argument. A difficult man who gave me a go and to whom I owe due deference.

    I was that sometimes.

  15. Door-knocking today….on the whole very positive. The only down-notes cane from a Lib-core/ON voice who described Muslims as reptiles, as sub-human. She descrubed herself as a Lib who would vote ON 1/Lib 2.

    She is a victim of and now a propagator of fear and hate.

    We can thank Tony Abbott for most of this.

  18. fess,

    I did say earlier, that I had an operation called a “gastric Sleeve”.
    But, lifestyle has also changed.

  19. Lizzie…dtt comes here for a fight. She is seldom disappointed. Provocation, insult, falsehood….all just ways to gain attention.

    Dtt is a bore.

  20. The difference between Clinton and Trump is that Clinton would of [sic] tried to act diplomatically first, formed coalitions with willing partners and whether you agree with her or not would of [sic] acted with some degree of respect for international law and convention.

    I don’t think the same can be said for Trump. A complete narcissist who has a skin thinner and more fragile than tissue paper and whos [sic] self-love and ego even puts someone like Kanye West to shame.

    The end is nigh, I’m actually in full agreement with Colton here.

  22. I spoke to a neighbour of the bigot…a vocal Labor supporter and enthusiastic friend of Anne Aly. When i mentioned the bigot she said “Oh, the racist, yeah.” Then she offered to out up a yard sign for Labor and to do some leaflet drops.

  24. GG

    Keep at it.

    I have the opposite problem. Skinny small Irish type so low blood pressure and losing weight consigns me to emergency.

  26. briefly @ #3422 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 6:24 pm

    I spoke to a neighbour of the bigot…a vocal Labor supporter and enthusiastic friend of Anne Aly. When i mentioned the bigot she said “Oh, the racist, yeah.” Then she offered to out up a yard sign for Labor and to do some leaflet drops.

    Good effort!
    Recruiting volunteers multiplies your strength.

  28. GG….i expressed my shock and left…it’s not the first such incident lately….i’ve seen/heard a very full-throated anti-semitic rant too….also from a Lib/ON follower.

  30. Lizzie @ 6:14
    I think Poll Bludger has always been full of stoushes, some worse than others for interpersonal guerilla war, though I have also wondered about the poll deprivation effect and I’m really looking forward to the next lot as I expect the coalition to take a hit due to Centrelink and the rorts. After all, we’re only a few weeks into 2017 and Turnbull has already lost a minister in a manner that has no doubt got up many a nose.

  31. lizzie @ #3414 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 6:14 pm

    Is it because there are no polls that bludgers turn on each other?

    Excellent question.
    I have no excellent answer.
    Some wisdom in an earlier post – we are all going back to the stars someday.

    “I shall pass this way but once; any good that I can do or any kindness I can show to any human being; let me do it now. Let me not defer nor neglect it, for I shall not pass this way again.”

    —Etienne de Grellet
    Quaker Missionary

    The golden rule comes to mind.
    As a schoolboy in the golden Australian days of the 1950s. The girls knew “stuff” like this. The boys – not so much.

    Why do people treat other with contempt. FIIK. I make a conscientious effort to be kind. I often fail. I can try to be better or kid myself a little more.
    I think “Kermit the Frog” says it best “It’s Not Easy Being Green”.

    Colton ❇ ❇ ❇ ❇ ❇
    Greensborough Growler ❇ ❇ ❇ ❇ ❇
    Special model fully imported Ferrari Model Koala stamp for you both.
    Gold stars are cheaper in bulk. ❇ ❇

  32. GG:

    Sorry, must’ve missed where you mentioned your surgery. Great effort to keep it off – so often you hear of people who put the weight back on after their procedure.

  34. AR,

    The end is nigh, I’m actually in full agreement with Colton here.

    Haha. I’m not always totally disagreable 😉

    I think many of us have different theories as to why Trump won and Clinton lost.
    That argument will no doubt go on.
    But the reality is Trump is soon to be president.
    Every minute spent focusing on what Hillary Clinton did or hypothetically would of done is just a complete waste of time.

  35. Briefly
    Good to hear how it’s going in the West, though disturbing to hear of bigots being emboldened. It’s happened here in Victoria as well with people being verbally abused in public places.
    Fortunately, in some instances, other people will intervene and stick up for those being targeted.

  37. Colton

    Every minute spent focusing on what Hillary Clinton did or hypothetically would of done is just a complete waste of time.

    Right. And I’m silly enough to have wasted my energy on it, even though all I did was scroll past. 🙂

  40. GG
    Great to hear of your success with the stomach sleeve. That’s a mighty effort. Have a nephew who has had the same procedure and it’s made such a difference to him, not only physically but psychologically. He’s so much happier and confident, which for a young man, is pretty important.
    On the polling front, well, I do realise I’m a tragic, however, the reporting has been pretty harsh.

  43. GG

    Have a stout on me!

    It’s the gas, man …

    If I had two tipples of whiskey I’d flash into bed 😀

    It’s the opposite but the same.

  44. briefly @ #3428 Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 6:28 pm

    GG….i expressed my shock and left…it’s not the first such incident lately….i’ve seen/heard a very full-throated anti-semitic rant too….also from a Lib/ON follower.

    Do you have anything specific I can add to my soon to be “Voodoo Rituals”.
    These will involve curses and magic incantations bringing down the wrath of the innocent victims on the heads of the evildoers. Anti-semites and racists will feature heavily in the dark of the moon choruses.
    I need ammunition being a simple soul. My wish is to return the horrible characters, escaped from H.P. Lovecraft’s chamber of horrors, to their final destination with Lucifer – their master.
    Seriously I am profoundly sad that these (it doesn’t matter what you call them – they remain what they are) people now feel free to more and more give vent to their viciousness.
    Death head curses for the selohssA among us. ☠☠

  45. For enthusiasts or masochists, there is a doco on SBS at 8.30 tonight – “President Trump”.

    I think I know as much as there is to know about just what a President Trump will be like. 😮

  46. Donald Trump has embarked on an unprecedented purge of government officials appointed by US President Barack Obama in a bid to wipe the slate clean ahead of his inauguration.

    Scores of presidential appointees, including ambassadors in far-flung capitals, two nuclear security chiefs and the head of Washington’s National Guard will be leaving their posts on Friday at noon, having received unexpected orders to do so, just as Mr Trump takes office as one of the most unpopular and scandal-ridden incoming presidents in history.

    http://www.theage.com.au/world/youre-fired-trump-dumps-top-officials-in-massive-purge-ahead-of-inauguration-20170115-gtrogu.html

  47. Coulton

    I could definitely improve my grammar.

    Your written communications skills have gone a long way forward since your first posts here.

    Congratulations!

    You don’t need to belittle your grammer (however spelled or is it ‘spelt’)

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