Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

After a bit of a blip over the past month or so, Essential Research finds Labor’s recovering its solid post-election lead.

The latest fortnightly rolling average of federal voting intention for Essential Research returns Labor’s two-party lead to 53-47, after walking a point at a time from 53-47 four weeks ago to 51-49 a fortnight ago and now back again. Both major parties are now at 37% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one and Labor up one, while One Nation comes off a point from last week’s high to 7%, with the Greens and Nick Xenophon Team steady at 9% and 3%. The poll also features its monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull down two on approval to 34% and up two on disapproval to 46%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 35% and, oddly, down five to 38%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is now at 39-28, down from 40-28, leaving for a remarkably high “don’t know” remainder. The most interesting of the survey’s remaining findings is the overwhelming support recorded for an increase in the minimum wage, with 80% approving and 11% disapproving. Another question canvases whether respondents would be “likely” to vote for a new conservative party formed around the likes of Tony Abbott, for which 23% answered in the affirmative, although polling exercises of this kind have shown themselves to be of very little value in the past.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,620 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Especially for MTBW, a great comment on the Guardian website:

    ‘I turned my TV off several years ago. Before that I watched ABC exclusively, except when State of Origin was on. But ABC TV became repetitive and boring. Then Kerry O’Brien retired, leaving the ABC without a diligent investigative reporter.

    I may turn my radio off soon too, for much the same reason that I turned the TV off. Radio National is repetitive and boring. Politicians are allowed to say anything they like on-air, knowing they won’t be challenged. In short, some Radio National shows, especially breakfast and drive-time, have become a propaganda organ for the government.

    The ABC website is also selective in what it reports. Yesterday there was no mention of the Essential poll that showed the prime minister’s approval rating had fallen to 46%.

    Not all of this is Guthrie’s fault, though one can easily see which way she is taking the organisation. I may be wrong, but I feel that some program presenters have worked out which way the political winds are blowing, making them more timid than they were in days gone by.

    Without a fearless and non-political ABC our democracy will become a fond memory. Without an independent ABC our society will become uninformed and malleable.’

  6. Reverting to the subject of the post!
    I found the steep increase in the ‘don’t knows’ on the PPM, with the slight increase in Shorten’s figures interesting. It’s like people voting ON or X on the way to deserting the Libs. If I were Turnbull, I wouldn’t turn my back on anyone, for fear of getting a tap on the shoulder. In the immortal words of Gareth Evans.. “the dogs are pissing on your swag” or wtte

  9. Gippslander – Exactly my thought. People who “don’t know” in a PPM question probably aren’t thinking favourably about the PM. I think they’ve moved him into the “don’t know” category on the way to rejecting him.

  10. p
    When the gerbils lasso me I free myself by posting a ‘.’
    Of course the gerbils are onto it so they are starting to upbraid me for duplicate postings.
    Heh heh. ‘….’ is my current gambit at baffling he gerbils with bullshit.

  11. Adrian..

    ..keep at it buddy..

    ..the ABC is now little more than another propaganda organ for the LNP ..the once great national broadcaster brought down by Murdoch’s myrmidon’s and this govt’s been counters & ideologues..

    ..I appreciate your efforts to expose the obvious politicisation of the ABC.. 🙂

  12. Newcastle.
    37 degrees today according to my Computer weather app.
    Another record for this day at Waratah West Heights.
    Rain tomorrow according to forcaste. Hope so.
    Is there any truth in the rumour that a coterie of gardeners bound for the Cayman Islands have been arrested at Melbourne airport and a huge quantity of $100 notes seized? 😎

  13. adrian @ #150 Wednesday, December 14, 2016 at 5:29 pm

    ‘Adrian
    We all get it that you hate the ABC but do you have to repeat is all the time.’
    Maybe I’ll stop when you start posting something that isn’t a dig at another poster, without contributing anything of your own.
    And it’s a puerile oversimplification to call it ‘hate’.

    Indeed. It’s more like a childish tantrum.

  14. Had to laugh at a promo on ABC Newsradio – 1st an old news report about Trump trailing in the polls, then an old news report about Brexit ‘leave’ vote trailing in the polls, then an old news report about the Coalition trailing in the polls.
    Hmm what is one supposed to take from that I wonder.

  15. boerwar @ #160 Wednesday, December 14, 2016 at 5:59 pm

    p
    When the gerbils lasso me I free myself by posting a ‘.’
    Of course the gerbils are onto it so they are starting to upbraid me for duplicate postings.
    Heh heh. ‘….’ is my current gambit at baffling he gerbils with bullshit.

    Very devious. The gremlins are rejecting some strange stuff including the web address for Greasyfork. Why is this so? FIIK.

  16. PS:
    The Drum is by far the worst programme on air ..pretends not to be a platform for the IPA and assorted R/Wing nutters ..but it’s fooling nobody..

  18. Hmm what is one supposed to take from that I wonder.

    Back in the day we were waiting for ‘the narrowing’, maybe the new version will be expecting ‘the brexiting’ of the election, or perhaps ‘the trumpening’.

  20. ..and replacing the wonderful Jonathan Green on ABC Radio National’s Sunday Extra is a gratuitous insult to all listeners who looked forward to Sunday morning radio..

    ..this listener will be tuning in no longer..

  21. Boerwar

    Hadn’t Julie Bishop been installed as PM before the election in an effort to save some furniture and replaced post election by some red in tooth and claw RWer ? Or did I get the wrong history book 🙂

  25. I spent some time in Melbourne’s Crown Casino recently. Plenty of $100 notes being dropped on the BlackJack, Baccarat and Sic Bo tables.

    Some Bludgers need to get out a bit more 🙂

  27. The drums are beating (with a muffled cadence) that Senators Payne, Brandis and Scullion will not be gracing the red leather come Autumn.

  28. sprocket_ @ #177 Wednesday, December 14, 2016 at 7:40 pm

    The drums are beating (with a muffled cadence) that Senators Payne, Brandis and Scullion will not be gracing the red leather come Autumn.

    “Then beat the drum slowly, play the Fife lowly.
    “Play the dead march as you carry me along.
    “Take me to the green valley, lay the sod o’er me,
    “I’m a young cowboy and I know I’ve done wrong.”

    Too sad to contemplate 😥

  29. I want to know where our big tough government stands on the slaughter in Aleppo. Has any MP come out to condemn the slaughter recently? Months seemed to have passed since the last feeble calls for a cease fire. Are they all hiding and waiting to see what Trump the moron says about his bestie Vlad ?

    Australia should stump up and call it for what it is. Where are those 12,000 refugees?

  30. sprocket_
    Wednesday, December 14, 2016 at 7:40 pm

    The drums are beating (with a muffled cadence) that Senators Payne, Brandis and Scullion will not be gracing the red leather come Autumn.

    Sadly, they will be replaced with equal dross….

  34. At Adelaide International Airport when checking through customs, Border Force confiscated the 400g jar of Vegemite I was taking over for my granddaughter in London.

    I did not know there was a dangerous Vegemite smuggling issue facing us.

    Luckily they just took tge Vegemite on binned it and let this doddery old grandma through customs. For a mi ute, I thought I was going to end up in the Nauru Gulag!

  35. shellbell @ #181 Wednesday, December 14, 2016 at 7:52 pm

    As predicted by humble moi
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/new-solicitorgeneral-appointed/news-story/b2dd8b160a2bef08957201376d635c35

    I take it you approve? I had a look at his background when you predicted his ascension – certainly seems highly qualified. Doesn’t look like someone Brandis could push around – looks like he could raise his eyebrows and Brandis would dissolve into a blubbering mess.

  37. Mikehilliard

    Many of the reports come from the same groups we are currently trying to oust from Mosul so many grains of salt needed. That said urban warfare is a slaughterhouse whoever is involved. Which makes the silence about the far larger besieged city of Mosul a bit disturbing. Large towns have been laid to waste on the way to trying to recapture and we hear sfa from our local media. The Shia militias involved have shown a willingness to inflict extreme brutality on Sunni civilians and still we hear SFA.
    This was from 2 months ago and since then conditions in both cities got far worse.

    Compare the coverage of Mosul and East Aleppo and it tells you a lot about the propaganda we consume

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/iraq-syria-aleppo-mosul-patrick-cockburn-propaganda-we-consume-a7373951.html

  38. Got out today – to the recorded opera from the Met in New York, at Nova, Carlton. The opera was Don Giovanni – great production, with traditional setting. One bit of stage “business” amused me: when Don Giovanni was apologising to Dona Elvira, promising to be faithful or whatever, his disgruntled servant Leporello moved his arms in an action of shovelling over his shoulder. When I was a kid, this was the normal way of silently shouting “Bulls**t!” Is this universal signing, I wonder? The OH, of the fairer sex, was totally ignorant of the point being made!

  39. Mikehilliard

    A bit about the guy that wrote that article.

    Patrick Oliver Cockburn Irish journalist who has been a Middle East correspondent for The Independent. He has also worked as a correspondent in Moscow and Washington and is a frequent contributor to the London Review of Books.
    He has written three books on Iraq’s recent history. He won the Martha Gellhorn Prize in 2005, the James Cameron Prize in 2006, the Orwell Prize for Journalism in 2009,[1] Foreign Commentator of the Year (Editorial Intelligence Comment Awards 2013), Foreign Affairs Journalist of the Year (British Journalism Awards 2014), Foreign Reporter of the Year (The Press Awards For 2014). Seymour Hersh has described him as the “best western journalist at work in Iraq today.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Cockburn
    Another of his articles

    “This is why everything you’ve read about the wars in Syria and Iraq could be wrong”
    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syria-aleppo-iraq-mosul-isis-middle-east-conflict-assad-war-everything-youve-read-could-be-wrong-a7451656.html

  40. Apparently, according to Essential, 13% of Labor voters and 11% of Green voters would be likely to vote for a new conservative party that included people like Tony Abbott. Or perhaps about 10% of people just give a random answer to any question they’re asked! Perhaps polls should include a question or two designed to weed out those people, like “do you agree with the following – one of my ancestors came from Mars” or “do you agree with the following – deedle eedle oodle eedle?” My prediction – 2-4% will stronly agree and another 8-10% will somewhat agree.

  41. I spent some time in Melbourne’s Crown Casino recently. Plenty of $100 notes being dropped on the BlackJack, Baccarat and Sic Bo tables.

    I was approaching an atm at one of our finer institutes of higher education on Monday with the intent of withdrawing a modicum of folding money, when a pair jumped the queue in front of me. The machine took deposits – and did they! Two wads of green notes, each as thick as my finger.

    I have no idea what it was about, but it looked very unusual to me.

  42. Don’t know if it’s been previously discussed here, but just heard on 3aw that Rudd and his wife are going to receive honorary doctorates from the ANU on Friday.

  43. “The review’s more contentious recommendations — such as drug and alcohol testing and fitness for duty assessments — will now be considered by an MFB consultative committee”

    The MFB can consult all they like, there is not a hope in hell of the United Firefighters Union ever agreeing to drug and alcohol testing.

  45. taylormade @ #193 Wednesday, December 14, 2016 at 10:02 pm

    “The review’s more contentious recommendations — such as drug and alcohol testing and fitness for duty assessments — will now be considered by an MFB consultative committee”
    The MFB can consult all they like, there is not a hope in hell of the United Firefighters Union ever agreeing to drug and alcohol testing.

    Why not?
    Would UFU members like to possibly have their lives depending on a drunk or drug addled colleague?
    Plenty of occupations do have such testing.

  46. Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Wednesday, December 14, 2016 at 8:18 pm

    At Adelaide International Airport when checking through customs, Border Force confiscated the 400g jar of Vegemite I was taking over for my granddaughter in London.

    I did not know there was a dangerous Vegemite smuggling issue facing us.

    Luckily they just took tge Vegemite on binned it and let this doddery old grandma through customs. For a mi ute, I thought I was going to end up in the Nauru Gulag!

    Ah yes! Hold baggage only for those sorts of things. It is available in Harrods and some M&S food halls in the UK.

  49. bemused

    As a very very early Rudd fanboi even I have to admit he turned out to be a dud. A real 😆 is that my early liking was his language and plain speaking. shame he ended up speaking “programmatic specificity”.

  50. I wonder if we are going to get a hokey Christmas message from Malcolm, Lucy, the dogs, the kids and the grandkids this year?

    George Christensen is drafting it for Barnaby and Cory to approve for release.

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