Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings fall to a new low amid an otherwise uneventful set of fortnightly Newspoll numbers.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest fortnightly Newspoll result records no change to Labor’s 52-48 lead, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 39%, Labor up one to 37% and the Greens steady at 10%. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are at a new low, with approval down two to 29% and disapproval up one to 57% – the fifth successive deterioration in his net position, covering each Newspoll published since the election. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-30 to 42-32.

Also out today was a Roy Morgan phone poll that found 58% expressing support for “Muslim immigration” with 33% opposed, in contrast to an earlier Essential Research finding. There were also results of 66% support and 25% oppose for asylum seeker immigration; 77% support and 18% for skilled migrants; and 74% support and 21% oppose for family reunion migration. Other questions found 21% wanted the rate of immigration increased, 40% kept level and 34% reduced; that opinion was evenly divided as to whether immigrants made Australian life better or worse, at 32% apiece. The poll canvassed 656 respondents over 14, including 588 over 18. From the latter, two-party preferred voting intention was recorded at 55-45 in favour of the Labor.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds Labor losing the point of two-party preferred it gained last week, bringing their lead back to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 38%, Labor is steady at 37%, the Greens are down one to 10%, One Nation is upon one to 6%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady at 3%. Further questions find 36% support for re-establishing the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 16% opposed, and 39% deeming the issue important, versus 38% for not important. Other questions relate to the threat of terrorism and appropriate responses, with 24% very concerned and 48% somewhat concerned about the threat of terrorism in Australia. Twenty-eight per cent said the government had provided appropriate support to Julian Assange and 26% that they had not (though there’s no distinction here between too much and not enough), with fully 46% opting for don’t know.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,111 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 23
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  2. Boerwar
    No, the Greens are not going to come to the conclusion that Labor is the beneficent and infallible Light of Heaven and go away while returning your divinely ordained vote with a mea culpa. Labor lost that vote. Labor doesn’t care to get it back due to other political considerations. This bizarre entitlement that centre parties feel to the vote of anyone on their side no matter how much bus tossing they do is embarrassing.

  3. lizzie @ #13 Tuesday, October 25, 2016 at 7:05 am

    I have absolutely no wish to see Brandis in a “rewarding” sinecure in London, yet that is spoken of as Turnbull’s only option. Why should Australia be represented by His Lying Pomposity?

    Could be worse. Much worse. Turnbull could appoint him to the High Court, where he could not be easily sacked. Wouldn’t put it past him to do so.

    lizzie @ #55 Tuesday, October 25, 2016 at 8:39 am

    Paul Bongiorno ‏@PaulBongiorno · 11h11 hours ago
    Is there not a whiff of fascism here? Disturbing govt jack boots

    Bit more than a whiff. The mephitic stench was already overwhelming before Abbott won in 2013, and has only got worse since.

  4. Oh and Labor is unlikely to toss Brandis from an appointed sinecure upon taking office. To their credit the ALP is much less partisan about appointments and would likely leave Brandis in place until his term expired or he stuffed up in a way that called for his removal.

  5. Oh dear! David Kalisch disparaging the Canadian census! Canada, FFS! The country that recently had their most successful census ever, while he has presided over the least successful ever!!!

  8. Elaughfein – You’re probably right. But I do wonder if Labor’s loathing for Brandis might be so great that it would recall him.

  9. I hope somebody competent is in parliament to pick up the IBM dude. He said this:

    “This is the explanation for what went wrong: “The geoblocking protocol was not properly applied to one of the ISPs.”
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/the-pulse-live/politics-live-as-the-abs-ibm-government-quizzed-about-censusfail-20161024-gs9qqp.html
    Yet the DDOS attack was small – it did not register on sensor sites;
    http://www.cso.com.au/article/604910/attack-australian-census-site-didn-t-register-global-ddos-sensors/

  10. Player One
    “Is it too much to ask that we employ a Chief Statistician who can at least pronounce the word “statistics”?”
    You don’t need to know the mathy stuff if you want to be a Chief Statistician. It is all about leadership, agility, synergy, writing mission statements, close vertical integration with the minister’s office, and whatever else you can remember from your MBA textbook.

  11. Player 1

    1) Has any senator questioned any witness in terms of the privacy matters you and Nicole are concerned about?

    2) Did you hear the Health Report on RN today. It may be repeated at 5pm tomorrow I think. In reference to the benefits of having comprehensive e-health records, on of the speakers said that Australians will have to get over their privacy obsessions, because the benefits of comprehensive e-health records will in many ways actually keep us alive.

    The argument is that it is better to give up a bit of privacy and be alive , than to keep full privacy but be daid.

  12. socrates @ #160 Tuesday, October 25, 2016 at 1:53 pm

    You don’t need to know the mathy stuff if you want to be a Chief Statistician. It is all about leadership, agility, synergy, writing mission statements, close vertical integration with the minister’s office, and whatever else you can remember from your MBA textbook.

    So, “communication” is not somewhere in the mix?

  14. psyclaw
    #161 Tuesday, October 25, 2016 at 1:54 pm
    I note with great pleasure that you are now quoting from the Zane Grey school of US western cowboy speak.
    i.e. “daid”. Well said podnah. 🙂

  15. Socrates

    Yet the DDOS attack was small – it did not register on sensor sites;
    http://www.cso.com.au/article/604910/attack-australian-census-site-didn-t-register-global-ddos-sensors/

    IBM is onto this one. It was not the size of the DDoS attack, it was the dastardly nature of it … which they would of course have been able to explain, except that no-one at the senate inquiry had the necessary deep technical knowledge to be able to ask the correct questions!

  17. More shenanigans from Turnbull: Qld State government getting $10 million in federal funding for the Cross River rail link planning study is contingent on including Brisbane Mayor Quirk’s Metro “plan”.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pm-ties-cross-river-rail-funds-to-brisbane-metro-project-20161025-gs9x0u.html

    The only purpose of this Metro appears to be to destroy the busway Labor built. Quirk should rename his Metro project “CensusLink”. Its the right theme.

  18. I doubt that Turnbull would be considering anything other than a demotion to the backbench for Brandis.

    Surely Turnbull can’t afford Brandis’s loss as a diplopat or a judge?

    He needs the vote in the senate (particularly when Day resigns or is forced out), he needs the vote in the Coalition partyroom.

    And surely Judge Brandis would cause more embarrasment to Turnbull than Senator Brandis?

    I suppose maybe an overseas posting, and timed so there are no sitting weeks while they sort out the replacement? The partyroom vote would surely be more pressing for Turnbull than the senate though.

  21. Player One
    Yes the nature of attack does matter. The kind of attack you completely forget to allow for is always the most dangerous.

    Listening to the pathetic excuses being trotted out for CensusFail any more will drive me crazy. The fact that those responsible have not resigned already says it all about them. The fact the minister has not sacked them already says it all about him. Good afternoon all.

  25. Senators appear to be quite happy with ABS shifting the whole blame onto IBM. IBM of course in turn passed the whole blame to their subcontractors NextGen and Vocus, who have (strangely) not been asked to appear before the committee, even though both made submissions directly contradicting IBM’s versions of events on several points.

    One wonders how the committee will be able to come to any definite conclusion on this aspect of its terms of reference.

  26. MTBW, one of the strongest cases for abolishing embassies (its a regular discussion in international politics studies) is the ambassadors being chosen. If the nations leaders treat these appointments like a gravy train for mates then abolish them altogether.

  28. Oh dear! David Kalisch trying to challenge Bill McLellan on the subject of statistics.
    Really bad move, David. Bill McLellan obviously understands the subject a lot better than you do!

  30. Brandis would want be a judge so he can muse over words like “consult” and “effluxion”.
    The Cth can only appoint him to a Federal position ie the Administrative Appeals Tribunal, Federal Court or higher.
    Wiki identifies six like appointees to Federal Court roles – Nigel Bowen, Robert Ellicott, Tony Whitlam, John Reeves, Merv Everett and Duncan Kerr.
    Fair old step down from Bowen and Ellicott to the others, I think.

  31. I don’t know about a statistician not being able to pronounce the word “statistics” but I would immediately sack anyone who has hold of a microphone and bastardises “Australia” to monstrosities such as “straya”, “ostraya”. Drives me nuts……Mind you, in our local rag, some financial expert was pointing out the Paradox of Thrift as proposed by Martin Keens, so why bother at all?

  32. KayJay

    The current LNP front bench have been described as clowns and buffoons plus other less salutary descriptions.
    My fellow Austrians, I am reminded of that excellent fellow Mr. Alexander John Gosse Downer. …

    Just a small correction; it’s a double O not a double S

  33. tom hawkins @ #182 Tuesday, October 25, 2016 at 2:30 pm

    KayJay

    The current LNP front bench have been described as clowns and buffoons plus other less salutary descriptions.
    My fellow Austrians, I am reminded of that excellent fellow Mr. Alexander John Gosse Downer. …

    Just a small correction; it’s a double O not a double S

    We (the regimental dog – sleeping now) and I thank you for your attention to detail.
    I am about to have my afternoon nap attack and trust that I will not dream of said Mr Downer gosse stepping around the local plaza.
    Again, thank you for your firm but polite correction. 🙂

  34. I hear ‘that excellent fellow’ is currently in the market for a small mansion in Adelaide or Melbourne. I am hoping he settles on Melbourne.

  37. ratsak @ #37 Tuesday, October 25, 2016 at 8:15 am

    Another stupid move by Turnbull, specifically designed to alienate the remnants of his latte sipping base.
    At 29% Katherine Murphy would be about the only one of those left on board surely.
    By pandering to the loons he’ll have kept some of the base onside, but it won’t be long until he’ll look back on the days of 29% approval as ‘the good old days’. Perhaps it was the lower starting expectations, but I don’t think even Abbott was shown up quite as ruthlessly as completely out of his depth by the job so shortly after taking office. The only people looking more stupid than Turnbull are those who thought he would be good at being PM (hi Elizabeth Farrelly et al).

    I think many in that 29% are the ones still hoping for “the old Malcolm”.
    The ones who support Abbott and the RWNJs would not be happy with Abbott-lite.

  38. I often what Mod Lib is thinking these days seeing her idol reduced in stature to a lesser mortal.

    It would be nice if she would pop in for a while to get the rounds of the kitchen from whoever is around at the time. 👿

  40. C@tmomma
    If you are using Windows 10 —
    Firefox and Chrome need to have the Flash extension installed. A google search will give you details.
    IE11 already has Flash installed.
    😎

  41. — We have the daughter. That is enough. —
    Its the son I worry about. Heaven help us here if they both unleash themselves on the South Australian political scene.

    KJ, Newcastle have the Johns boys…. thankfully.

  43. So, David Kalisch’s original story about a “malicious attack” has now devolved into a fairly minor “DDoS event”. And one that by the ABS’s own admission did not bring down the census site. They did that entirely on their own, because they panicked and invoked their “overload” procedures.

    It’s a shame the senators (a) can’t seem to use google, and (b) appear not to have read the submissions to the inquiry.

  45. I see Kalisch has his chief IT guy on his right (he’d be maybe a couple of yrs past the 55 mark. I wonder if Jon is sitting there wishing he’d pulled the plug and taken his super before this).

  46. ABS acknowledges they have never prosecuted people who did not provide their name in any previous censuses, and will do the same in this census as they have done in all past censuses. Fines are only a last resort for complete “refuseniks”, and even then they have only issued 239 “Notice of Direction” from this census.

    So that’s it – despite all the hoo-hah, “name” is not now and has never really been “compulsory”.

  47. Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Gleeson’s resignation ‘shameful’, ‘unprecedented’, ‘ruthless’ govt shooting the messenger says @billshortenmp http://snpy.tv/2eMdISV

    2

    Sky News Australia
    54m54 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Gleeson did not fall on this sword, he was pushed says @billshortenmp http://snpy.tv/2ezJZ2Z

    2

    1

    Sky News Australia
    57m57 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Turnbull is so weak, devoid of strength that he has had to keep his bullying Attorney General says @billshortenmp
    http://snpy.tv/2eM91bM

    6

    5

    Sky News Australia
    1h1 hour ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Gleeson tormented into resignation by ‘Bully Brandis’ says @billshortenmp http://snpy.tv/2eByrtA

  49. Just had a strong liberal voter at work come in and complain endlessly about how hopeless the liberal front bench is and how the party is going to the dogs. Even looked despairing when I said it was likely Malcolm would limp on for another couple of years. I thought, if this bloke is jumping ship …
    I sensed that all over the country people are finally accepting that Malcolm is a total dud. Had his chance. Goodbye.

  50. Alaistair MacGibbon confirms the DDoS attacks were “small” and did not bring the census website down.

    The ABS turned the web site off themselves when they enabled the “overload” protection.

    Conclusion: The web site went down due to an overload, not related to the DDoS attack.

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