The only new poll this week was the usual fortnightly rolling average result from Essential Research, which moved a point in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferrred, leaving Labor’s lead at 51-49. On the primary vote, the Coalition was up one to 40%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens down one to 8%, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation steady at 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 3%. However, the big news so far as this post is concerned is the post-election return of BludgerTrack, which opens its account with 17 data points to work from – three from Newspoll, and 14 from Essential Research.
Each pollster is bias-adjusted based on the difference between the election result and a trend measure of their voting intention numbers at that time, with the results halved to account for the likelihood that they will tweak their methodology rather than persist in their existing errors. On this basis, the adjustments for Newspoll are +0.0% for the Coalition, 0.2% for Labor and +0.0% for the Greens, while those for Essential Research are respectively -0.7%, +0.5% and -0.1%. For the time being, results are being weighted according to a formula that gives each pollster equal weight over the full course of the present term, so that the more prolific a pollster is, the less weight its polls will be given. On this basis, the weighting for a single Essential poll is currently 0.071, while a Newspoll gets one-third.
This means the dominant data point so far as the current reading is concerned is last week’s Newspoll, which was published as 52-48 to Labor, but came out at 52.7-47.3 after 2016 election preferences were applied to the bias-adjusted primary vote. This is why the current BludgerTrack reading is a little more favourable to Labor than you might expect, given the run of recent polling. Preferences are allocated according to the results of the July election, there presently being no other option, but I will eventually move to a method that splits the difference between previous election preferences and a trend measure of respondent-allocated preferences, if and when Ispos and ReachTEL provide enough such data to make it worthwhile. Such an approach would have been almost perfectly accurate at the recent election, although the previous election method has generally performed better in the past. The leadership results go back to the start of Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership in mid-September last year – note that no change is recorded in the “last week” column at this point, owing to the lack of new results this week.
Further poll stuff:
• After numerous polls finding the public favouring a referendum to solve the same-sex marriage question, a follow-up result from last week’s Newspoll found 48% favouring a “politicians decide&148; options versus 39% for a plebiscite in February. This week’s Essential Research gave respondents an option between “the government should agree to a vote in parliament” and “the Labor Party, Greens and Xenophon Team should agree to a plebiscite”, with respective results of 53% and 24%.
• Both pollsters also asked how they would vote in a referendum, with Newspoll finding 62% to 32% in favour of yes, and Essential coming in at 58% to 28%. Essential also found 49% believed such a vote should be binding on parliament, with 26% preferring the alternative option of leaving parliamentarians with a free vote.
• Essential posed a series of questions on the National Broadband Network, which found 42% favouring “the Labor plan” and 27% “the Liberal government’s plan”; only 22% saying the NBN would “adequately meet Australia’s future Internet requirements”, with 47% saying it wouldn’t; and 88% agreeing the internet was “becoming an essential service”, with only 7% disagreeing.
• Fifty per cent rated the level of immigration to Australia over the past 10 years as too high, 12% as too low and 28% as about right, while 44% opposed the recently announced increase in the annual refugee intake, with 39% supportive. Relatedly, Essential recently released widely publicised results on Muslim immigration and Pauline Hanson from its survey of July 27 to August 1. This found 49% supporting a ban on Muslim immigration versus 40% opposed, and strong majorities supporting the propositions that Hanson was “speaking for a lot of ordinary Australians” (62% to 30%) and “talks about issues other politicians too scared to tackle” (65% to 28%).
These wind gusts are giving me the pips!!
zoomster @ #787 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 2:31 pm
The winds are not exceptional.
I would truly hate to be in a real crisis situation with some of you people. You would be totally useless.
Top gust recorded was 104Km/hr at Essendon Airport.
sohar @ #790 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 2:39 pm
I just have a sense of perspective that it seems many lack.
bemused
The winds may not be exceptional, but that doesn’t mean lizzie doesn’t have cause for concern, or that people here should not express concern for her.
An example of Australia’s third world telecomms network
My parents live in Kyneton and my sister just outside Daylesford. Today the BoM issued a severe weather alert for the whole of Victoria. On days like this there is no mobile coverage due to ‘geographical issues’ and forget about internet coverage. Yet Kyneton and Daylesford are respectively 70 and 90 minutes from Melbourne and are major population centres. The NBN is at least 2 years off and it takes my sister to get access to emergency service information like CFA warnings having her to walk out of the house and up the top of the road to get 1 bar of coverage.
Thanks to the Liberals/Nationals who don’t give a f**k about proper infrastructure and certainly those IPA droogs in Collins Street who believe regional Victoria starts at the end of Collins Street at Spring Street.
Thanks for nothing you f**kers. You bastards. You destroyers of national infrastructure. Cretins the lot of you.
You’re being a bit insensitive, Bemused.
I realize you have arrogated to yourself the role of IT specialist, mentor, uber political intellectual, debater, Labor insider, mental health professional, and social etiquette advisor around here, but can’t you just try to resist offering nasty advice and commentary for once?
I’ve just been out walking in it Vic and a couple of the gusts stopped me in my tracks. I was keeping a very watchful eye on the overhead foliage I can assure you.
We have lost power in Wonthaggi… out for the next 3-9 hours.
daretotread @ #791 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 2:41 pm
I wasn’t critical of lizzie, jut those who automatically react as if there has been a major catastrophe.
Lizzie was just describing a situation in a matter of fact way as was appropriate. Others went into spasms of hand wringing.
No mobile coverage either… thank goodness I have charged my laptop.
NBN is down. How ironic given Telstra were spruiking it at Inverloch during the week,
Bloody renewables.
zoomster @ #804 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 3:06 pm
I have respect for Lizzies common sense and am confident she has removed any hazards. She is one of the calmer, more level headed posters here.
Steven
What Darn said!
bushfire bill @ #806 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 3:08 pm
I will follow the example you set.
Darn
I love the foliage, but on days like this, i get anxious. As I was driving earlier, a smallish branch decided to fall on my car.
Should have said smallish twiggy branch
Darn
Beat me to it!
Steven – looks like the renewables struck again.
Here are the Weather Bureau’s observations in and around Melbourne. Many places have had peak gusts 100 km/h or above, the top being 119 at Fawkner Beacon on the Bay off Melbourne’s SE suburbs. Melbourne Airport has had 107:
http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/observations/melbourne.shtml?ref=hdr
Victoria:
A friend of mine recently completed the Clipper round the world yacht race. She said by far the scariest leg of the journey was the trip from Sth Africa to WA and then onto Sydney – those ‘roaring 40s’!
The Atlantic
34m34 minutes ago
The Atlantic @TheAtlantic
Will the ‘Apprentice’ tapes be the next bombshell to explode? http://theatln.tc/2dnB7tP
Jesus! How about everyone just ignore bemused? If he wants to be PB’s answer to Donald Trump let him wallow in his own immature ignorance.
Fess
I get anxious watching deadliest catch on tv!! Lol…
I seriously doubt whether Lizzie needs your endorsement. You give it because it makes you out to be the person who sets the rules. Without the “Bemused Seal Of Approval”, conduct is either mentally disturbed, ignorant, fatuous, hysterical and so on – all words you freely use about fellow posters. It’s not just one or two trolls who get the “Bemused” treatment it’s just about everyone, except a few chosen favourites. And God help anyone who you actually <dislike!
You’re an old-fashioned bully. The only talent you have is not possessing a sense of shame or context. And you don’t know when enough is enough, or how to just give up. When criticised you only go in harder and nastier. Some of the people around here are pretty amiable, gentle souls, who don’t need your viciousness. Yet they are the ones you seem to go for the most. That is typical bullying behaviour: full of your own importance and nasty to boot.
The thing is no-one is impressed by it, thinks better of you, or even admires you for this attitude you have. You offer little here but bragging and the insulting of others. It’s anti-social and quite unpleasant to wade through, even if one is not the immediate object of your self-aggrandizing aggressiveness. You rarely write anything interesting or insightful, argued or even cogent that doesn’t involve slagging someone else off for what you decide are their personal faults.
I (and I’m sure many others) just wish you wouldn’t do it. In my case not because of anything you say about me personally – that’s water off a duck’s back, the ravings of a deluded pissant – but because some people here take you half-seriously, despite their better judgement, and they get upset over comments from this malignant stranger who assigns himself as the judge and jury of their character.
Its about time those girly-men at the Bureau took a chill pill. Fancy getting upset about mere 107kph wind gusts. Anyone who has a tree fall on them deserves it. If the tin sheds aren’t flying around in mid air, then it’s just a sea breeze.
‘Fess,
A friend of mine recently completed the Clipper round the world yacht race. She said by far the scariest leg of the journey was the trip from Sth Africa to WA and then onto Sydney – those ‘roaring 40s’!
My Great Grandfather used to captain the Clippers that sailed the wheat out from Esperance to Fremantle, or to Pyrmont in Sydney. Our wheat-growing family are still located in the Esperance area.
confessions @ #821 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 3:19 pm
Classic display of ignorance and numptyism.
Australia has the ‘honour’ of being home to the fastest wind gust ever recorded:
“The fastest wind speed not related to tornadoes ever recorded was during the passage of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on 10 April 1996: an automatic weather station on Barrow Island, Australia, registered a maximum wind gust of 408 km/h (220 kn; 253 mph; 113 m/s).”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_speed#Highest_speed
bushfire bill @ #823 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 3:33 pm
😆
I get the full ‘Goghorn Leghorn’ treatment there.
Does anyone ever take your bloviating seriously?
‘Foghorn Leghorn’ of course.
Re Trump, I had a quick look on Briebart.com (but you could pick any of these sites) and have come to the conclusion that there is nothing that Trump could say or do, that would make him worse in his supporters eye, than Hillary.
C@t:
I love Esperance. The beaches are just beautiful with even whiter sand than what we get over here. I was only saying to someone the other day it’s been so long since I was last there, and I should really make the effort to visit more regularly.
Well, I am now a victim of the wind! I kid you not.
I took a load of old computer bits and pieces and some other electronic stuff down to the Council Waste Transfer and Re cycling Centre, only to find…. ‘Closed Due to High Winds’
😆 Serves me right!
Victoria – “I get anxious watching deadliest catch on tv!! Lol”
There is footage of a Qantas jet abandoning a landing at Melb airport today.
I suggest you do not watch.
Nicole – Schweethart – in my very best Humphrey Bogart impression.
If you decide to call it a day and only call in from time to time you may be pleased to know that many have enjoyed your posting. Myself and Nina are a such couple.
You must know why Dog invented scroll wheels for computer by now. Dog’s assistant Musrum has been on the case as well with STFU.
Many years ago (in the merry, merry month of May) I knew a “gentleman” known as “Twistie” – because he was, simply put, nuts. He had been at a particular miltary establishment where old soldiers were knows as “Depot Dogs” and really, really old sodgers were knows as “Grand old Dogs – GODs”.
Once again, nothing much about anything in particular. The particular gentlement gave me a good kicking one drunken night. I was in a blacked out state and to this day remember nothing about it and I think I didn’t even gets a bruise.
Oh, the joys of youth! 😉
Taylormade
My daughter just told me about it!
taylormade @ #833 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 3:52 pm
There was one I saw yesterday at Prague I think. I would not like to have been on-board. It went around and landed successfully on the second attempt.
bemused @ #803 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 3:06 pm
Yes, thank goodness for that. Estimations vary between 1 in 20 and 1 in 25. In prisons however, that percentage increases and is estimated at between 1 in 4 and 1 in 6. 😛
‘Fess,
I love it around that neck of the woods as well! I once did an around the bottom of Australia camping trip with my husband where we followed the coast between Sydney and Perth as much as possible, not staying in motels but just putting up the tent at the end of a long day’s driving by taking the first road off the highway that we came to and then seeing what we woke up to in the morning!
There are some sights, like 90 Mile Beach and the pink salt lakes that I will never forget seeing. Also my husband told me about the amazing caves under the Nullarbor, many of which his uncle, a geophysicist, discovered (except, of course, for our Indigenous brethren : ) ).
I’d do it all again in a heartbeat, and maybe when they have reasonably-priced self-driving cars I will!
Wow if there’s a link to news reportage of this I’d love to see it!
Apparently it is a one in 5 year wind event in Melbourne.
I have it on the good authority of Channel 7 news.
bushfire bill @ #824 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 3:37 pm
Yes, those flying sheets of metal are rather scary. The BOM should wait until the guillotines are flying before they broadcast warnings to the public.
C@t:
I’m still biased to our region though. We’ve got amazing pristine natural environment and coastlines here that are just visual splendours.
The Victorian authorities including the SES on the ABC now. Lots of trees down, some on houses. Extensive power outages, a number of injuries and one fatality. It looks to be a big deal.
And on another topic, nature comes to Melbourne (suburbs).
Anyone not familiar with Melbourne might like to check those locations on Google Maps – they are right in suburbia.
ABC 24 reported that the Bureau of Meteorology says the Victorian storm is a once in 5 year event.
Steve777:
Yes the winds in Victoria are a big deal.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-weather-weve-had-the-rain-now-120kmh-gusts-are-on-their-way-20161008-gry29l.html
Yeah. No. #melbourneairport (source: https://t.co/814o05DhDa) https://t.co/4j2saNpjwx
Re the plane landing at Melbourne airport
My cousin in Beaconsfield just reported on FB a great big tree fell on the bonnet of her car doing damage. Photo looks full on. Tree is still over it.
Qantas A320 plane blown almost sideways by wind trying to land at Tullamarine. Pilot did good job righting the plane. Looks like planes will be delayed. There’s a video on FB.
Check out @PaulHenry524’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/PaulHenry524/status/784986695829639168?s=09 one of the tweets back to me on the QF plane trying to land at Melbourne airport