The only new poll this week was the usual fortnightly rolling average result from Essential Research, which moved a point in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferrred, leaving Labor’s lead at 51-49. On the primary vote, the Coalition was up one to 40%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens down one to 8%, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation steady at 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 3%. However, the big news so far as this post is concerned is the post-election return of BludgerTrack, which opens its account with 17 data points to work from – three from Newspoll, and 14 from Essential Research.
Each pollster is bias-adjusted based on the difference between the election result and a trend measure of their voting intention numbers at that time, with the results halved to account for the likelihood that they will tweak their methodology rather than persist in their existing errors. On this basis, the adjustments for Newspoll are +0.0% for the Coalition, 0.2% for Labor and +0.0% for the Greens, while those for Essential Research are respectively -0.7%, +0.5% and -0.1%. For the time being, results are being weighted according to a formula that gives each pollster equal weight over the full course of the present term, so that the more prolific a pollster is, the less weight its polls will be given. On this basis, the weighting for a single Essential poll is currently 0.071, while a Newspoll gets one-third.
This means the dominant data point so far as the current reading is concerned is last week’s Newspoll, which was published as 52-48 to Labor, but came out at 52.7-47.3 after 2016 election preferences were applied to the bias-adjusted primary vote. This is why the current BludgerTrack reading is a little more favourable to Labor than you might expect, given the run of recent polling. Preferences are allocated according to the results of the July election, there presently being no other option, but I will eventually move to a method that splits the difference between previous election preferences and a trend measure of respondent-allocated preferences, if and when Ispos and ReachTEL provide enough such data to make it worthwhile. Such an approach would have been almost perfectly accurate at the recent election, although the previous election method has generally performed better in the past. The leadership results go back to the start of Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership in mid-September last year – note that no change is recorded in the “last week” column at this point, owing to the lack of new results this week.
Further poll stuff:
• After numerous polls finding the public favouring a referendum to solve the same-sex marriage question, a follow-up result from last week’s Newspoll found 48% favouring a “politicians decide&148; options versus 39% for a plebiscite in February. This week’s Essential Research gave respondents an option between “the government should agree to a vote in parliament” and “the Labor Party, Greens and Xenophon Team should agree to a plebiscite”, with respective results of 53% and 24%.
• Both pollsters also asked how they would vote in a referendum, with Newspoll finding 62% to 32% in favour of yes, and Essential coming in at 58% to 28%. Essential also found 49% believed such a vote should be binding on parliament, with 26% preferring the alternative option of leaving parliamentarians with a free vote.
• Essential posed a series of questions on the National Broadband Network, which found 42% favouring “the Labor plan” and 27% “the Liberal government’s plan”; only 22% saying the NBN would “adequately meet Australia’s future Internet requirements”, with 47% saying it wouldn’t; and 88% agreeing the internet was “becoming an essential service”, with only 7% disagreeing.
• Fifty per cent rated the level of immigration to Australia over the past 10 years as too high, 12% as too low and 28% as about right, while 44% opposed the recently announced increase in the annual refugee intake, with 39% supportive. Relatedly, Essential recently released widely publicised results on Muslim immigration and Pauline Hanson from its survey of July 27 to August 1. This found 49% supporting a ban on Muslim immigration versus 40% opposed, and strong majorities supporting the propositions that Hanson was “speaking for a lot of ordinary Australians” (62% to 30%) and “talks about issues other politicians too scared to tackle” (65% to 28%).
Steve
Yes and any storm arriving when the ground is already sodden is much more damaging because more trees fall.
I see Mari has posted already about the plane.
‘Fess,
I love Albany and environs too! I have a friend who has just moved back there to live. He’s an artist.
Mari:
Thanks for that. Holy shee-it!! Imagine being a passenger on that flight.
The ‘Nancy’ in the Trump Tapes has outed herself and spoken out:
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/300027-nancy-odell-saddened-by-trump-tape
Confessions
I was just about to post the same.
There will I suspect be a need for thorough dry cleaning on THAT plane tonight.
DTT:
I guess we’ll see footage from inside the plane emerge on social media as well at some point.
A sad event.
The latest from Mr Denmore at ‘The Failed Estate’:
http://failedestate.com/the-public-blackout/
In an era of hyper-partisanship, every tangled, contentious issue – climate change, alternative energy, health, education funding, debt, infrastructure, superannuation, same-sex marriage, immigration – gets chucked into the thermomix to be rearranged into a left-right slab of news meat.
Gives Chris Uhlmann a whacking.
It’s only a light breeze –
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-09/victoria-weather-state-to-be-slammed-with-high-winds-up-120kph/7916196
mari @ #847 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 4:19 pm
Pretty good Mari.
That’s when the pilots really earn their pay!
Good one CTar!!
I went through that once on Santorini, at night twice, before we landed on the third attempt. It was a twin prop Dash-8. Horrible experience. My finger nail marks should still be embedded in the arm rests. Her Indoors laughed her way through it. Hostie did her nails. Other passengers not so sanguine: one kissed the tarmac when he got off.
Next plane to try landed first time, good as gold. I was disappointed.
When it comes to getting rid of huntsmen, I’m the brave one. I have one-up on HI there. But generally speaking, I have to admit women are far braver than men when it comes to the life-and-death stuff.
Confessions and DTT
Talk about scary, I was on a plane landing at Heathrow that came in sideways from the wind, terrifying, but not as bad as that one. We landed and there wa s dead silence on the plane, I wonder why 😀
BB
The runway there only 1500 metres so Dash-8 a very standard thing.
Bemused
You are right re the pilots earning their money, which is why I try to travel on the well known airlines, they have been trained. Eg Gibraltar airport BA have 2 senior captains to fly in and out and you can see why ie one mistake and you are in the sea both ends, also the only road from Gibraltar to Spain is closed ,when planes are landing, incredible to watch the planes landing about 50 metres from where you standing and watching and about 20 metres above you head
Thanks for that, Bushfire Bill @ 3.33 pm!!
I guess those poor people are still in the air somewhere. Looking for a landing place
That Melbourne Airport plane footage was circulating about a year ago.
Mari:
I had a scary landing in Vietnam once, nothing like that Qantas flight today, but it still swerved and bucked trying to land. People were screaming but nobody was hurt.
mari @ #866 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 5:09 pm
The stories on ‘Air Crash Investigator’ and similar are very sobering.
In some cases pilots do remarkable feats to save their aircraft and passengers.
In others, a succession of mishaps and errors doom a flight no mater how skilled the crew. e.g. in one case the wrong fuel gauge was fitted and misled the pilots into believing they had adequate fuel. They ran out and couldn’t figure what was going on.
For any aircraft buffs, SBS has a program on at 5:30pm about the Me 262, the worlds first operational jet powered aircraft.
Oh I don’t know. Men didn’t do too badly when the titanic went down. Most of them went with it. And the blokes who manned the front lines during two world wars were pretty ballsy.
I’d say both genders can show extraordinary bravery when the chips are down.
William:
I’ve never seen it before.
Huw Parkinson’s latest, on Clinton v. Trump – uncivil war.
very good.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-09/presidential-avengers:-uncivil-war/7916264
The big structural problem in our country’s political system is that Labor and the Greens don’t offer an alternative to the neoliberal economic framework. They merely offer to implement it more softly. Massive wastage of resources, potential, and quality of life gushes from this breakage in our politics. It is time for an economic framework that puts full employment and a broader concept of paid work front and center.
Check out @iMusing’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/iMusing/status/784992183350808576?s=09
A great article on the Malaysian guys plus others who are “privileged ”
Confessions
They are scary some of the landings for sure, but I truly believe wh ed n your time is up you will go no matter where you are!
Bemused
I watched that show ,is it still on?
mari @ #877 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 5:30 pm
Haven’t seen it lately so possibly not.
I don’t control what shows are watched in this household so am less aware of what’s on. 😉
Wow, Nicholas, let me guess – someone should run on a policy of printing money?
zoomster @ #879 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 5:34 pm
Just hand over control to the Greens and all will be good. You know it makes sense. 😉
Re William @5:18PM: thank you. I posted a link on another blog so I will have to retract over there.
I have found the original, dated 5/5/2015:
“…However, although the footage was posted to Facebook on Sunday as the state of Victoria was being battered by extreme winds, it was actually filmed last year. myGC found the original video, which was uploaded to Youtube back on May 5, 2015.”
http://www.mygc.com.au/watch-terrifying-moment-qantas-plane-aborts-landing-melbourne-airport/
steve777 @ #881 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 5:44 pm
The Age also posted that video.
William 5,18 pm
You are correct plane landing 5/5/15.. my mistake the tweet I looked at was dated today snd all answering tweets were dated today ,when I posted Sorry
The ACT Territory election is next Saturday, and I was expecting to see some polling. None has been published as far as I can tell, has anyone seen any?
A colleague tells me that Morgan was polling there last week, though you have to pay for this now.
For William, do you have something planned for the ACT election?
Thanks Steve777.
The NEw York Times weighs in:
Not good for The Donald.
And this medieval mob wonder why they are on the nose.
https://twitter.com/thenation/status/784881780415459328
BK
http://votesmart.org/candidate/political-courage-test/34024/mike-pence/#.V_nrxiSumno
I was thinking who might be an Australian analogue to Donald Trump just now and Kyle Sandilands pops up on the ABC.
S
The additional seats lurked up by Labor and the Greens should save some of their miserable hides.
bk @ #887 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 5:59 pm
Aw. Jesus BK. I am beginning to think for real that there are more than one race of humans.
Trump’s lewd comments have unleashed a maelstrom of stories of sexual assault from Women all over America. What a creepy shithead that man is!
http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/news-and-views/social/a-million-women-share-their-sexual-assault-stories-on-twitter-after-donald-trumps-groping-comments-20161009-gry9k3.html
kayjay @ #891 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 6:06 pm
Certainly sub-species.
Manna from heaven for US comedians. Watch this Saturday Night live segment
http://www.slate.com/blogs/browbeat/2016/10/09/watch_snl_address_trump_s_pussy_grabbing_comments.html
I really like Elizabeth Warren!
https://twitter.com/elizabethforma/status/784594283009609728
mari
A recent “exciting” landing in Prague. I wonder if the passengers realised how close it was ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=trrUkKUyhl4
BK
Warren should have been the Democrats nominee.
poroti @ #896 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 6:19 pm
That’s the one I saw on TV news recently.
Elizabeth Warren will not be forgotten by Hillary. She is a pretty prominent surrogate.
c@tmomma @ #899 Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 6:27 pm
If she was younger she would be a worthy successor to Hillary.