Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A new poll suggests voters want parliament to legislate for same-sex marriage if they can’t get their favoured option of a plebiscite, as the Coalition primary vote maintains a slow downward trend.

This week’s Essential Research finds the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 37%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady on 4%, with two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 in favour of Labor. The poll also finds 53% favouring a vote by parliament on same-sex marriage in the event that the Senate blocks a plebiscite, with only 29% opposed. Support for the proposed plebiscite question, “should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?”, is at 60% with 30% opposed, compared with results of 57% and 28% when the same question was posed a month ago. Only 22% of respondents supported the goverment’s plan for $7.5 million of advertising to be provided for both sides of the argument, with 68% opposed. When asked about the biggest threats to job security in Australia, 31% nominated “free trade deals that allow foreign workers into the Australian market”, 23% companies using labour hire and contracting out, 18% the impact of technological change, and high wages in last place on 11%.

In other news, I mean to start shaking myself out of a spell of post-election laziness, so I’ll have BludgerTrack back in one form or another next week. In the meantime, I have the following to relate:

• The Australian reports that factional arrangements ensure that Stephen Conroy’s own sub-faction of the Victorian Right will decide his successor when he vacates his Senate seat on September 30. That seems to bode well for his ally Mehmet Tillem, who previously served in the Senate from late 2013 until mid-2014, when he served out David Feeney’s term after he moved to the lower house seat of Batman at the September 2013 election. However, some in the party are said to be arguing that the position should go to a woman, specifically to Stefanie Perri, the former Monash mayor who ran unsuccessfully in Chisholm at the recent election.

• A draft redistribution proposal has been published for the Northern Territory’s two electorates, in which early 3000 voters are to be transferred from growing Solomon (covering Darwin and Palmerston) to stagnant Lingiari (covering the remainder of the territory). The transfer encompasses Yarrawonga, Farrar, Johnston and Zuccoli at the eastern edge of Palmerston, together with the Litchfield Shire areas around Knuckey Lagoon immediately east of Darwin. This is a conservative area, so the change would strengthen Labor in Solomon and weaken them in Lingiari.

• A redistribution for the five electorates in Tasmania is in its earliest stages, with a period for preliminary public suggestions to run from November 2 to December 5.

• The Liberal National Party announced last week it would not challenge its 37 vote defeat in the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, despite complaints from Senator Ian Macdonald that the Australian Eleectoral Commission had promised hospital patients it would take their votes on polling day without delivering, and that students outside the electorate were denied absent votes because the required envelopes were not available. The 40-day deadline for lodgement of a challenge closed on Saturday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,992 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  4. Churchill, as usual, full of it.

    The major turning point in the European War was not El Alamein. North Africa was essentially a minor sideshow to the main event.

    As for equipment, British tanks remained inferior to German tanks for the duration. They were mobile coffins. In fact it is amazing that those responsible were not jailed after the War. But they blamed the tankers for being gutless, so that was alright.

    The Germans remained dominant-to-competitive in the air on the Eastern Front well beyond El Alamein.

    Number of tanks, all sides, El Alamein: around 1,500.
    Number of tanks, all sides, Kursk: 8,000.

    Number of aircraft, all sides, El Alamein: around 1,500.
    Number of aircraft, all sides, Kursk: around 5,000

    Casualties, all sides, at El Alamein: 70,000.
    Casualties, all sides, at Kursk: 1,000,000.

  6. CTaR1
    ‘All the going on about SSM.
    Imagine what a national debate on euthanasia will be like!’
    Herds of unicorns gambol to the roar of the crowds while the Tories quietly gut public health, public education, unemployment support, social services and public-good science.

  9. Bemused,
    Probably. But, most likely wont.
    I have a professional interest in getting to work or going to the footy.
    Can’t be tossed worrying about such trivilities when a simple work around is on offer.
    But, you go hard.

  10. TPOF

    My point has nothing whatsoever to do with hatred of capitalism, but only with hatred of hypocrisy. Western countries choose to outsource a great deal of sports programs, but as I say it is only a funding model. The point is it is hypocrisy for the west to cry “wasn’t us” when they may well have given tacit support or turned a blind eye to the same stuff going on. I think (at least for the Olympics and world championships and anywhere where the NATION competes), the government of the day is responsible, whether the doping was via a government program or via some heavily sponsored national team.

    The UK government knighted Wiggins and clearly thought he was the bees knees. If he was unfairly getting “asthma” treatment, they are just as responsible as the Russian government. Otherwise the Russians or all other nations could simply set up corporate bodies to do the doping and pretend they know nothing of it.

    I guess it is the glass houses analogy. The US is the most strident re WADA, but its history re Ben Johnson and Lance Armstrong is pretty bloody weak.

  11. Boerwar Monday, September 26, 2016 at 4:14 pm
    Churchill, as usual, full of it.

    ************************************

    Churchill – Hero or Villain – the debate will go on forever …

    •Winston Churchill is a fascinating and complex historical figure who divides opinion more than perhaps any other person in 20th Century History.
    •To his admirers was a radical social reformer and an inspiring visionary who warned against the appeasement of European dictators and saved Britain and Western democracy from what he called a ‘new Dark Age’ of Nazi tyranny.
    •To his detractors he was a warmongering, blundering reactionary responsible for such things as the disaster at Gallipoli in World War One, the callous treatment of exploited workers in the General Strike and a failed attempt to spark off World War Three against Soviet Russia in his ‘Iron Curtain’ speech.
    •The truth, of course, is that Churchill was all of these things and much more besides. The challenge for historians when deciding if Churchill deserves to be remembered as a ‘hero’ or a ‘villain’ depends on the criteria we choose to use, the evidence we select, and the interpretations we then place on it.

    My dear Mum – who lived through the war years in the UK – , always said, whatever his faults, his words gave them hope when all seemed lost …..

  12. C@Tmomma

    A doctor who looked after Froome last year made this comment.

    Swart said the injections still left questions to be answered, particularly when there were other options such as corticosteroid.

    “You could shove bucketloads up your nose and down your throat and inhale it, and you wouldn’t be doing anything that would end up with systemic effects,” he said.

    “And you would be avoiding the interpretation that there is a performance-enhancing effect. From that perspective it doesn’t look good.”

    http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/other-sports/wada-leaks-are-a-boost-for-chris-froome-but-a-blow-for-bradley-wiggins-1.2796844

  14. greensborough growler @ #2759 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 4:23 pm

    Bemused,
    Probably. But, most likely wont.
    I have a professional interest in getting to work or going to the footy.
    Can’t be tossed worrying about such trivilities when a simple work around is on offer.
    But, you go hard.

    It is symptomatic of a number of irritants in the system that detract from it and fuel a fair amount of criticism of the Govt. Should be easily fixed.

  15. PhoenixRed

    My dear Mum – who lived through the war years in the UK – , always said, whatever his faults, his words gave them hope when all seemed lost …..

    My family would agree with that.

  16. Imagine what a national debate on euthanasia will be like!

    I imagine it will be like an election? And then the people who are voted in draft and pass legislation in accordance with the prevailing opinion within the electorates they represent?

    Or are we not doing representative democracy anymore?

  18. C’mon. Fess up! Who set Boerwar off?

    The Dutch won WW-II, from their Burma Railroad prison camps. Anyone knows that. The native Indonesians loved their erstwhile colonial masters, which is why they rose up against the Japanese in solidarity and fraternity.

  19. PR
    I don’t mind the notion that Churchill’s contribution is open to debate.
    I do object to hagiography of Churchill.
    And I particularly mind that not only did Churchill have a profound contempt for Australians, and that he was prepared to sacrifice Australia to the Japanese as a lower priority to the Imperial cause than India. He was prepared to spill copious amounts of Australian blood at places like Al Alamein at the same time.
    We should never forget that Menzies crawled to Churchill like a maggot crawls to rotten meat.
    It took a Labor prime minister to cut to the chase.
    Churchill epitomises our hegemon risk.
    We cling to the US like we clung to the Empire.
    When push comes to shove, the Americans will do just what they should do: consult their national interest.
    And if that means sacrificing Australia they will not blink.

  20. William,

    I keep getting a Security Alert dialogue box popping up whenever I am on PB. This does not hapeen for any other site. It eventually causes the site to freeze and I have to log on again.

    The message is “The name on the security Certificate is invalid or does not match the name of the site”.

    Would you please let the gerbils know.

    Cheers.

  21. martha farquahar @ #2751 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 4:13 pm

    Typical dishonesty from the Murdoch press in this piece…
    Columnist slams Emma Watson speech to UN
    Obviously not worth mentioning in the article that the columnist in question is a lowlife with a history of racism and misogyny who has admitted assaulting his ex-partner when she was 20 weeks pregnant.

    Ha. Ha. Generated by one Mordor outlet to encourage outraged click bait all across the Mordor empire.

  22. BB

    The Dutch were immaterial to WW outcomes, as we all know.

    They surrendered in Holland straight after the germans terror-bombed the Rotterdam red light district. Enough, already.

    60,000 subsequently starved to death during the hungry winter, but hey, in war winners are grinners.

    The Dutch did lose more men and ships and planes than Australia did fighting against the Japanese during the loss of the Malay Peninsula, Singapore and the loss of the NEI. But all that made as much difference to WW2 outcomes as the Australian contribution: zip.

    But hey, anglophones would know that just about as well as they know that the french lost more soldiers on Gallipoli than did Australia.

  23. Mark Humphries ‏@markhumphries 46m
    If only the government had some sort of power to propose legislation.

    The trick to the Plebiscite is to set up the idea as the only option in town, true democracy at work and the result of a solid mandate a la “The people Have Spoken”, and then to get a compliant media to peddle it as such. Bonus points for every mention of the name “Bill Shorten” and two free turns for the first to use the words, “Bill Shorten broke the rainbow.” A double-six gets you the right to say, “Same Sex Marriage could be put off for decades,” and snake-eyes scores one free “Suffer The Little Children” card. Landing on the St. Mary’s Cathedral card provides the right to say “Nelson Mandela Would Vote ‘No'”, but only once, unless there is already a Bishop’s Mansion built on it.

    Anyone who points to the Child Abuse Royal Commission as an example of how much the churches kare for kids goes immediately to jail, and any mention of Cardinal Pell and sodomy in the same sentence means the key gets thrown in the Tiber.

  24. DDT: I think that just as in Australia, the news media is having less influence on public opinion. All the papers in the world supporting Clinton and opposing Trump probably will not influence many voters.

    I think the media supporting one over the other will have the opposite effect. The public are seeing that those the media are supporting are turning out to be complete bastards and they are now wary of following the soothsaying of the media.

  25. TPOF

    Ha. Ha. Generated by one Mordor outlet to encourage outraged click bait all across the Mordor empire.

    ….I guess they got me good then!

  26. I encounter the same problem as GG — but I’m getting used to working around this site, because I’m agile and innovative (which is an improvement on alert but not alarmed).

  27. tpof @ #2742 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 3:53 pm

    kevin-one-seven @ #2740 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 3:40 pm

    TPOF – There has been a massive amount of talk about Russian doping. You obviously don’t read the sports pages. Nobody has forgotten it. It’s been going on for years. Quite frankly I don’t think this medical doping is any better. It shows how stupid that Russians are that they didn’t put their athletes on asthma medication.

    I have read the sports pages. I fundamentally disagree that this is worse – on the same principle that outright tax evasion is far worse than tax avoidance using legitimate though dodgy means.
    It is one thing to make use of the rules; it is far worse to simply flout them.

    I see both situations as equally abhorrent.
    If an athlete is manipulating a medical condition to gain a benefit this should be as illegal as any other doping offence.

    As I said earlier I would make the athlete stand aside from competing whilst receiving the treatment and for a period after its completion to ensure that any residual benefit has left their systems.

    This sort of approach would allow the athletes to receive a full treatment without a fear of sanctions whilst looking to maintain the integrity of competitions by ensuring that the treated athlete received no inadvertent or deliberate benefit from the treatment.

  28. martha farquahar @ #2775 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 4:50 pm

    TPOF

    Ha. Ha. Generated by one Mordor outlet to encourage outraged click bait all across the Mordor empire.

    ….I guess they got me good then!

    And me. But I knew what was going on.

    I read the Wikipedia entry. He seems a lower rent version of Brendan O’Neill, the Spiked guy that they put on QandA from time to time. He’d be right at home in UKIP I reckon.

  29. BiS

    As I said earlier I would make the athlete stand aside from competing whilst receiving the treatment and for a period after its completion to ensure that any residual benefit has left their systems.

    I had assumed that’s what they did.

    If not they definitely should.

  30. Havachat
    Yes I agree.
    The public no longer takes the word of newspaper editors. I am assuming it has lots to do with the internet, but newspapers no longer have the punch they once did.

    In the USA having the major newspapers endorse you may well be a negative.

  31. How many months is it since PollBludger was “improved”???
    I was happy with the way it was.
    It worked on my desktop and my phone.
    That’s all I needed.

  32. Churchhill seems to have been more responsible than anyone for the botched Gallipoli campaign. He was also an effective wartime leader during WW2.

  33. The question that doesn’t seem to have been answered in all the interviews that Bradley Wiggins has had so far is ‘if he is a chronic sufferer of asthma why does it only require the massive injection of steroids just before major tours’.

    The same question could be asked of Chris Froome, why only before major road races.

    If they are chronic sufferers (and I have no information that they are or are not except their and the teams word (who happen to be making $millions off their success)) why don’t they suffer from these conditions in lessor races and the off season.

  35. Lizzie:

    Aren’t we still the beta ‘testing’ stage of the site upgrade? Surely it’s been long enough for the techies to get a handle on all the glitches and sort them out.

  36. ctar1 @ #2779 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 4:56 pm

    BiS

    As I said earlier I would make the athlete stand aside from competing whilst receiving the treatment and for a period after its completion to ensure that any residual benefit has left their systems.

    I had assumed that’s what they did.
    If not they definitely should.

    I’m not sure, and the Wiggins example suggests that there isn’t much if any cooling off period if any after the treatment.

    I used to work as a Drug Testing Chaperone for ASADA as it was then and athletes needed to declare all medications they were taking and occasionally there would be banned drugs declared that they had authorisation to use. This was in competition testing.

    I’ve been out of the system for over a decade so I don’t know how things are now.

  38. HAVACHAT – Yes, I can’t see the causal link between Asthma and Category 1 climbs, but maybe I’m missing something. I reckon that if Wiggins was up for a gong now, he wouldn’t get it. God, the Pommie establishment must be feeling stupid. The Guardian hasn’t thrown its comments section open on this, because they know that their moderators will go into melt-down.

  39. Regardless of who wins this presidential race, the United States will continue to decline economically and socially. Neither candidate offers a policy agenda that would change that trajectory. If Trump wins, that will be sad and destructive in many ways, but the silver lining is that he will be so incompetent that he will crash and burn like Tony Abbott, and the Democrats would be likely nominate a much better candidate four years from now. If Clinton loses this will strengthen the Warren/Sanders wing of the party, which is much more in tune with what the country needs than Hillary Clinton is.

  40. Kevin 1-7

    Legalising same-sex marriage is not at, or near, the top of his list of priorities.

    So that’s Massola’s reasoning?
    This is a nagging thorn in the side of many Australians.Malcolm is PM and should deal with it, one way or the other. Not leave it to Bookshelves.

  41. STEVE777 – That’s very debatable. One version is that Churchill thought it worth trying to force the Dardanelles and shell Istanbul into submission with antique battleships that couldn’t be used in the Grand Fleet. It was definitely worth a go. Unfortunately, when they hit mines, British Cabinet didn’t just write off the mission. Rather, it double-downed with land forces. That was the big mistake. I think it’s questionable whether Churchill ever supported land forces.

  42. NICHOLAS – Everybody I speak to who comes back from the US comments on the thousands of homeless living in the middle of the big cities. It’s like an epidemic

  44. lizzie,

    Not really.

    Outside the cloistered workshop of PB and the Homosexual Industry web sites, SSM does not resonate with many voters.

    People are too busy getting on with their lives to be too engaged.

    It’s not a top order priority apart from those who have an iron in the fire.

  49. GG

    I agree that SSM is not a top order priority for many Australians, but the politicians need to deal with it and not let the matter drag on.

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