Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A new poll suggests voters want parliament to legislate for same-sex marriage if they can’t get their favoured option of a plebiscite, as the Coalition primary vote maintains a slow downward trend.

This week’s Essential Research finds the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 37%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady on 4%, with two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 in favour of Labor. The poll also finds 53% favouring a vote by parliament on same-sex marriage in the event that the Senate blocks a plebiscite, with only 29% opposed. Support for the proposed plebiscite question, “should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?”, is at 60% with 30% opposed, compared with results of 57% and 28% when the same question was posed a month ago. Only 22% of respondents supported the goverment’s plan for $7.5 million of advertising to be provided for both sides of the argument, with 68% opposed. When asked about the biggest threats to job security in Australia, 31% nominated “free trade deals that allow foreign workers into the Australian market”, 23% companies using labour hire and contracting out, 18% the impact of technological change, and high wages in last place on 11%.

In other news, I mean to start shaking myself out of a spell of post-election laziness, so I’ll have BludgerTrack back in one form or another next week. In the meantime, I have the following to relate:

• The Australian reports that factional arrangements ensure that Stephen Conroy’s own sub-faction of the Victorian Right will decide his successor when he vacates his Senate seat on September 30. That seems to bode well for his ally Mehmet Tillem, who previously served in the Senate from late 2013 until mid-2014, when he served out David Feeney’s term after he moved to the lower house seat of Batman at the September 2013 election. However, some in the party are said to be arguing that the position should go to a woman, specifically to Stefanie Perri, the former Monash mayor who ran unsuccessfully in Chisholm at the recent election.

• A draft redistribution proposal has been published for the Northern Territory’s two electorates, in which early 3000 voters are to be transferred from growing Solomon (covering Darwin and Palmerston) to stagnant Lingiari (covering the remainder of the territory). The transfer encompasses Yarrawonga, Farrar, Johnston and Zuccoli at the eastern edge of Palmerston, together with the Litchfield Shire areas around Knuckey Lagoon immediately east of Darwin. This is a conservative area, so the change would strengthen Labor in Solomon and weaken them in Lingiari.

• A redistribution for the five electorates in Tasmania is in its earliest stages, with a period for preliminary public suggestions to run from November 2 to December 5.

• The Liberal National Party announced last week it would not challenge its 37 vote defeat in the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, despite complaints from Senator Ian Macdonald that the Australian Eleectoral Commission had promised hospital patients it would take their votes on polling day without delivering, and that students outside the electorate were denied absent votes because the required envelopes were not available. The 40-day deadline for lodgement of a challenge closed on Saturday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,992 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 57 of 60
1 … 56 57 58 … 60

  1. lizzie Monday, September 26, 2016 at 5:04 pm
    How many months is it since PollBludger was “improved”???
    I was happy with the way it was.
    It worked on my desktop and my phone.
    That’s all I needed.

    *****************************************
    +1 ……………… but ONLY on my friends computer – I had NO PROBLEMS before THE UPDATE !!!!!
    I can’t get #$&* of PB on MY OWN computer ….. why ???? who knows ….. just like why is Malcolm and his dodgy brothers sleazy corrupt gang of shonks, spivs and shysters still running this country ?????? – somethings just cannot be explained …..

  4. Alice Workman retweeted
    Terri Butler MP
    2h2 hours ago
    Terri Butler MP ‏@terrimbutler
    Us: will you show us your bill to amend the Marriage Act? George: we’ll tell you what the “core” provisions will say.

    Alice Workman retweeted
    Mark Dreyfus
    2h2 hours ago
    Mark Dreyfus ‏@markdreyfusQCMP
    Contrary to what Senator Brandis says, Labor’s position on marriage equality is clear – we want a free vote. Just get on with it #auspol

  6. I think that the approach of elite athletes to substances is a bit like the approach of professional tennis players to serving the ball. They always aim to put the ball right on the line, the smallest fraction of a centimetre on the ‘in’ side of the boundary that they can manage. That’s OK, of course, although we also have very dubious practices like grunting/shrieking and intimidating the umpire. (Fortunately the latter isn’t tolerated in most other sports).

    So we have all these ‘supplements’ supplied by ‘sports scientists’, for example. For many athletes, it’s whatever they think they can get away with, including substances that haven’t (yet) been declared illegal or which can’t (yet) be tested for. Of course, many have been getting this wrong and getting caught. And it goes without saying that they’ll take advantage of any loopholes, like medical dispensations.

  8. It’s certainly a top order priority for you GG. The irony is that the only reason a gay lobby exists is because of people like you.

  9. Marlina Whop ‏@MarlinaWhop 5h5 hours ago
    Wife of former MP Scott Driscoll – Emma Driscoll has pleaded guilty to fraud offences . @7NewsQueensland

  10. It’s not a top order priority apart from those who have an iron in the fire.

    It used not to be, but it has now become a lightning rod for every crackpot and looney from both sides of the debate. It has also wedged Turnbull, who promised a new broom sweeping far horizons, but has instead delivered a worn toothbrush sweeping old Abbott policies out from underneath the carpet.

    Only Turnbull – the master straegist, the political sage, the man of the people – could stuff up such a simple concept as the duty of Parliament to allow legislation that it is constitutionally competent to pass.

    The Plebiscite was always a mechanism of delay. It is not democracy. It has no existence outside of the poisoned minds of those who wish for it to fail and the fevered imaginations of its Press Gallery spruikers.

    A one-seat majority does not qualify as a “mandate. It hardly qualifies as a set of worn fingernails grasping the last withered shreds of vegetation at the top of an abyss.

    Where the “footy” analogy of the last election fails is that a footy game has a full-time whistle, while politics has no referee, no time limit and no whistle. As soon as one side scores or fails to score in politics, play resumes as if nothing had happened. You’re only as good as your last scoring shot. There’s no end to it. No relaxation. No rest.

    So for Turnbull to claim that a Plebiscite is settled, chiselled in stone, a done deal, he has to first explain why none of his opponents agree with him, and then explain why (if he has a “workable majority”) he’s having so much trouble getting something through initial negotiations, much less through the Parliament.

    Turnbull has a record of failure: failure of “no brainer” issues that initially appeared to be done deals. He failed on the Republic, on the CPRS, on Godwin Grech. He has denied ideas and ideals who once had him as their champion. He asserts “authority” yet clings desperately to Abbott’s discredited brainfarts. Bill Shorten is doing Malcolm Turnbull slowly.

  11. lizzie,

    Politicians would rather see things drag on if making a decision will cause them to lose popularity.

    SSM is not a vote changer while it bounces around as an issue. It might become one if they make a precipitous decision.

  12. S777

    we also have very dubious practices like grunting/shrieking and intimidating the umpire.

    It was a bad mistake not to rule out the grunting/shrieking right at the start.

  13. El Guapo,

    That’s your take on it. But, the realiy is that SSM is not something I think or talk about much outside of PB when I’m meeting or dealing with civilians.

    Sure, I have a view that does not accord with the PB echo chamber. However, that does not concern me that much.

  15. Speaking of SSM, these are the quotes that an article on ABC online chose to highlight on its website. I guess they assume that nobody reads their articles, and would get the message that Labor was the problem.

    “The ball is in his court,” Mr Turnbull said.

    Government asked what Labor wanted nine times, Brandis says

    “I’m disappointed that on every occasion, when I asked Mr Dreyfus and Ms Butler to state what the Labor Party’s position was, they refused to do so.”

  16. Terri Butler MP Verified account 
    ‏@terrimbutler
    George: what would it take for you to support a plebiscite? Us: do you even have anything to offer? George: we offer to consider your offer

  19. The Dutch were even more gutless and anti-Semitic than the French and shamefully collaborated with the Nazis, handing over Jews for extermination as fast as the Nazis could take them.

  21. Mundine is little more than a professional dickhead, who in an ideal world would be ignored.
    Unfortunately we have a media that is obsessed with conflict and polarised opinion.

  22. I am open to nuclear, but the fact that it produces toxic and very long-lasting (although not voluminous) waste that has to be managed effectively forever is a huge problem with it. If we take this route, we should make those who build and run the reactors responsible for the cost managing the waste. Let ‘the market’ deal with the whole life cycle.

    I suppose nuclear does have the ‘advantage’ of being big and dirty, so conservatives will like it. As for managing the waste, that will need The to be regulated very closely otherwise they’d probably dump it in the nearest bushland or lake.

  24. Let me see if I get this….

    So The Attorney-General of the Commonwealth calls a meeting with the Opposition. When the opposition arrives at the appointed time its representatives finds that the person who calls the meeting has no agenda, and no ideas.

    Somehow this is Labor’s fault?

    Maybe in The Office it might form the basis of a comedy sketch, but really, how can you call a meeting about nothing and then blame the attendees for not inspiring you?

  25. Greensborough Growler
    #2770 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 4:41 pm
    Last week I sent an email to crikey support detailing various problems and requests that pop up on PB.
    Fire wall problem.
    Truncated posts.
    Request for post number.
    Request for editing within 10 minutes.
    Various log on problems.
    ………………………………………………………….
    I have had no reply and don’t expect any.
    I think most PB do the best they can with their equipment and can use Musrums scripts with Firefox, Chrome and in the latest Windows 10 Edge can now use scripts. (Windows Insiders – soon on Windows normally updated).
    Those that choose not to use the addons may be cutting off the nose ……which is their right.
    I have computers running Windows 10 and 7 and am about to load Windows 8.1. I expect all will be able to log on to Crikey with a minimum of fuss. Nicole posted a clever work around should one get the “you need to be signed on” message. Simply open another tab and log on to Crikey, then return to the first tab and refresh. Works well.
    William has been notified of various problems such as the firewall and truncation. I think he is as frustrated as any. 🙁

  26. BB,

    The intention of Turnbull and Brandis is to scupper the Plebiscite. The second part is that they want to blame Labor for it failing to pass muster so they can appease their Conservative rump that they did everyhing possible, but unfortunately he could not get it through. The next phase is to drop the whole thing and put off the vote ubtil some undetermined time in the furure.

    It’s a pretty simple and transparent strategy.

  28. Bushfire Bill

    Turning up unprepared is the Coalition’s SOP . Indolent pricks.

    The Turnbull government has suffered more embarrassing scenes in Parliament, with senators forced to give rambling monologues about their colleagues and favourite television shows because the government had no bills ready for debate.

    The filibuster tactics in the Senate, which ran for four hours, followed the debacle in the House of Representatives two weeks ago when the government lost several divisions because MPs had left early.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-embarrassment-as-senate-runs-out-of-work-to-do-20160912-gre6nr.html

  29. Kay Jay,
    Most people would agree you should not kill the goose that lays the golden egg.

    Crikey IT history is one of dead geese.

  31. Nicholas
    Monday, September 26, 2016 at 5:12 pm

    Regardless of who wins this presidential race, the United States will continue to decline economically and socially.

    Democrat = Republican….again…still

  32. The Drum.
    John Barron cleverly announced not that two thirds support SSM but one third do not.
    What a guy. Well in line for Fwit of the week award. 👿

  33. Lyle Shelton ‏@LyleShelton · Sep 23

    @DFlynnVic1 with 400,000 #marriage flyers in his Melbourne garage to be despatched to volunteers tomorrow. #plebiscite action.

    Lyle Shelton ‏@LyleShelton · Sep 23

    @DFlynnVic1 with 400,000 #marriage flyers in his Melbourne garage to be despatched to volunteers tomorrow. #plebiscite action.

    Lyle Shelton ‏@LyleShelton · Sep 23

    @DFlynnVic1 with 400,000 #marriage flyers in his Melbourne garage to be despatched to volunteers tomorrow. #plebiscite action.
    :large

  36. The question was posed the other day are there any other rights gay people dont have? Of course they can be discriminated against in the workplace. Religious institutions are allowed to not employ people based on their sexuality. If mariage equality passes they will also seek amendments to discriminate in the commercial sphere. It is not just about marriage it is fundamentally about the view of whether gay people people are in fact considered moral equals.

  37. diogenes @ #2819 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 5:56 pm

    The Dutch were even more gutless and anti-Semitic than the French and shamefully collaborated with the Nazis, handing over Jews for extermination as fast as the Nazis could take them.

    Antisemitism was rife throughout Europe.
    Hitler and the Nazi’s attitude was not uncommon.
    Where they differed obviously was in their actions.

  38. Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane · 14m14 minutes ago

    The plebiscite is us pronouncing judgment on the self-regarding rights of a minority, during which that minority will be vilified.

  39. The Age Editorial.
    All writer are convinced that Turnbull really supports SSM. Sometimes I wonder.

    …perhaps the most bizarre element of the entire mess is the premise that Malcolm Turnbull does not have the power – and, dare one say, the agility and decency – to adjust his government’s stance. The conventional view is that the minority of his colleagues who are opposed to marriage equality would rebel and bring about his demise. Really? First, how can a minority vote him out of office? Second, such people are far more likely to face facts rather than risk losing their seats, and government.

    Another absurdity is the argument that the Coalition has a mandate for the plebiscite. The Coalition lost almost its entire majority in the July 2 election. Were the enabling legislation blocked in the Senate, the government should argue that the most affordable, effective and responsible way to proceed would be a conscience vote in the Parliament. The bulk of the population would applaud and be delighted. This would buoy support for Mr Turnbull in the community, and leave the disgruntled few on the Coalition’s backbench impotent.

    Mr Turnbull and your colleagues, this change will come. As we have said and will keep saying, when marriage equality laws pass, the only thing that will happen is people in love will get married.

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/samesex-marriage-plebiscite-stalemate-opens-way-for-free-vote-20160926-groqzn.html

  40. bk @ #2830 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 6:16 pm

    David Pope reminds us of why we should never listen to John Howard.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    I would dispute the order.

    1. The war will reduce the terror threat.

    This was always an out and out lie. No rational person could believe this proposition.

    2. They threw their children overboard.

    3. Iraq has WMDs.

    Initially ‘children overboard’ may have been based on a misunderstanding but well before the election Howard knew it was bullsh!t.
    Iraq had WMDs, the West had sold them to him, but did they still have them, was unclear and becoming more and more unlikely as the UN inspectors were discovering.

  43. I am salivating at the thought of the Churches – take your pick which ones – getting up and spruiking the sanctity of children, using the authority of Princes Of The Church – such as Pell and any number of priests, monsignors, brothers, rabbis, lawyers, members of the flock, and captains of God’s Army all hauled before the Royal Commission at some stage or other – to convince the punters they have the little kiddies’ welfare at heart.

    If they think vilification is a one-way street, they have another think coming.

  44. tpof @ #2841 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 6:57 pm

    kevin-one-seven @ #2784 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 5:07 pm

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/make-no-mistake-labor-and-the-coalition-are-playing-politics-with-samesex-marriage-20160926-groife.html
    Massola tries to bail out Malcolm. If you want your intelligence insulted, have a read.

    Th name ‘Massola’ is an insult to my intelligence.

    Just leave off the “M”.

  45. Lizzie @ 6.42

    It’s been a long time since Turnbull actually made the case for Marriage Equality, as opposed to sanctimoniously telling us that he was going to vote for it and expected the plebiscite to pass.

    It’s like Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May on Brexit. They told the British public they were for remain, but with such little enthusiasm that it was obvious they were just doing what was expected of them.

  47. A reliable source fights back.

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics · 44m44 minutes ago

    Quick word for Census Truthers – 2016 results come in with MoE’s between 0.03 & 0.06 of 1% for most things rather than 0.025 and 0.055 of 1%

     Reply

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics · 44m44 minutes ago

    Quick word for Census Truthers – 2016 results come in with MoE’s between 0.03 & 0.06 of 1% for most things rather than 0.025 and 0.055 of 1%

    2 retweets 5 likes

     Reply

     Retweet

    2

    Like
    5

     More

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics · 46m46 minutes ago

    Quick word for Census Truthers – 2016 results come in with MoE’s between 0.03 & 0.06 of 1% for most things rather than 0.025 and 0.055 of 1%

    2 retweets 5 likes

     Reply

     Retweet

    2

    Like
    5

     More

  48. BiS

    Iraq had WMDs, the West had sold them to him, but did they still have them, was unclear and becoming more and more unlikely as the UN inspectors were discovering.

    While the forces to invade Iraq were massing I recall Sadam being interviewed.

    He said during the interview if they wanted to find WMD’s they’d need to give him at least 6 months notice.

Comments Page 57 of 60
1 … 56 57 58 … 60

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *